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Brett Vito breaks down North Texas

12:32 PM CDT on Wednesday, August 30, 2006

Final 2005 record: 2-9

2006 forecast: 5-7

SCHEDULE

Date Opponent Time Forecast

Sept. 2 at Texas 11 a.m. L

Comment: UNT lost the last two by a combined 92-0

Sept. 9 SMU 6:00 L

Comment: Key nonconference affair for UNT

Sept. 16 at Tulsa 6:00 L

Comment: Ex-UNT aide Steve Kragthorpe leads Tulsa

Sept. 23 at Akron 5:00 L

Comment: First in a series with MAC teams

Sept. 30 Middle Tennessee State 6:00 W

Comment: A chance to get back on track in SBC

Oct. 7 Florida International 6:00 W

Comment: UNT's secondary will be challenged

Oct. 21 at Arkansas State 6:05 L

Comment: ASU earned New Orleans Bowl berth

Oct. 28 at Troy 6:00 W

Comment: Ended UNT's 26-game conference win streak

Nov. 4 Louisiana Tech 6:00 L

Comment: Last shot at a nonconference win in 2006

Nov. 11 at La.-Lafayette 4:00 L

Comment: Coaches pick Rajin' Cajuns to win league

Nov. 18 Florida Atlantic 6:00 W

Comment: Has UNT's number, winning both meetings

Nov. 25 La.-Monroe 6:00 W

Comment: ULM faces life without QB Steven Jyles

Best-case scenario

Running back Jamario Thomas returns and flashes the skills he used to win the national rushing title as a freshman in 2004. If the junior can stay healthy, UNT will be a threat to win the Sun Belt Conference. The Mean Green returns 16 starters and should benefit from the experience sophomores Daniel Meager, Matt Phillips and junior college transfer Woody Wilson gained playing quarterback last season.

Worst-case scenario

UNT has five tough nonconference games and could struggle in the Sun Belt if it fails to address concerns at quarterback and on the offensive and defensive lines. The Mean Green lost five conference games by 21 points combined last season, often by failing to make enough key plays late in games. UNT's margin for error will be small this season. If the Mean Green fails to produce in clutch situations, it could be a long season.

Player to watch

Junior running back Jamario Thomas will be the key to UNT's chances for a winning season. Thomas won the national rushing title as a freshman with an average of 180.1 yards a game but was hampered by a hamstring injury last season. He rushed for 361 yards last season and played in only eight games. If Thomas returns to form, UNT could regain its place atop the Sun Belt. If not, the Mean Green could struggle.

Coach's quandary

UNT has three players competing for playing time at quarterback, and each have different strengths. Returning starter Daniel Meager has the most experience at the Division I level, Matt Phillips has the strongest arm and Woody Wilson is the best runner. While Meager recovers from a concussion, Coach Darrell Dickey said Phillips will start the opener but Wilson will see playing time. Dickey said the competition for the job would last into the season.

Deep at: Receiver

Preseason All-Sun Belt selection Johnny Quinn leads a group of four receivers who have combined for 212 catches and 3,261 yards in their careers, despite playing in a run-first offense. Quinn has 130 catches for 2,085 yards in his career and should break all of UNT's major receiving records. Brandon Jackson, Zach Muzzy and Joel Nwigwe have had at least one season with a minimum of 16 catches and 227 receiving yards in their careers.

Thin at: Running back

UNT does not have much depth at running back behind starter Jamario Thomas. Projected backup Evan Robertson is a redshirt freshman, and Deavin Cox played defensive back last season. Fullback James Mitchell has filled in at times at running back but has not shown that he can carry the load as a feature back. UNT needs another option, but didn't add a running back on national signing day. If Thomas is injured or struggles, UNT won't have many options for a replacement.

Now what?

North Texas dominated the Sun Belt from 2001 to 2004, winning 26 straight league games and four conference titles before falling off last season. UNT won its conference opener over Middle Tennessee but then struggled and finished last in the league at 2-5. The Mean Green is determined to show that the 2005 season was a bump in the road, not the start of a dramatic decline.

E-mail bvito@dentonrc.com

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Brett Vito breaks down North Texas

Thin at: Running back

Fullback James Mitchell has filled in at times at running back but has not shown that he can carry the load as a feature back.

E-mail bvito@dentonrc.com

First, I like Brett Vito and appreciate what he does for NT...He is really good for us and sees the team accurately. However, I must have missed something on James Mitchell? Mitch has only had the opportunity to be "featured" in one game (that I can remember off the top of my head) and he ran for over 150 yards against Ark. State, in the rain, scored a TD, and had no turn-overs? James Mitchell has shown that he CAN carry the load if he is called on. I dont know that anyone could replace Jamario Thomas, but Mitch matches up very well against the most defenses. Robertson's speed may be a better tool in the backup RB role, but Mitchell plays tough and gets the extra yard when we have to have it. I still dont know about playing him at fullback, but he gives us something when he is in at tailback.

Just an opinion... See you guys in Austin.

GMG!!!

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First, I like Brett Vito and appreciate what he does for NT...He is really good for us and sees the team accurately. However, I must have missed something on James Mitchell? Mitch has only had the opportunity to be "featured" in one game (that I can remember off the top of my head) and he ran for over 150 yards against Ark. State, in the rain, scored a TD, and had no turn-overs? James Mitchell has shown that he CAN carry the load if he is called on. I dont know that anyone could replace Jamario Thomas, but Mitch matches up very well against the most defenses.  Robertson's speed may be a better tool in the backup RB role, but Mitchell plays tough and gets the extra yard when we have to have it. I still dont know about playing him at fullback, but he gives us something when he is in at tailback. 

Just an opinion... See you guys in Austin.

GMG!!!

I agree with that assessment of Mr. Mitchell. I'm also surprised at Devin Cox. I was just sure that he would continue to develop this fall.

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