Reshuffling the deck

MeanGreen61 · April 29, 2006

Blue Raider Zone article.

Reshuffling the Deck

Conference Shakeups As Unpredictable as the Games Themselves

BlueRaiderzone.com tries to dispel some of the myths about the benefits of MAC membership, breaks down the pros and cons of the debate and dives deeper into the complexities of what is likely to be the single largest shift in conference realignment in collegiate athletics history.

-crw

Every year about this time, we hear rumbles out of Bowling Green, Ky, that Western Kentucky is moving to the Mid-American Conference. Most of that speculation is based on Western Kentucky’s athletics’ director desire to move his athletic department into a more prestigious conference. So, where do the motives of Wood Selig originate? Perhaps a bit of his desires are based on an elite group of narcissistic Hilltopper boosters who think the Sun Belt is out to destroy Western. A more plausible reason is he wants Western’s basketball program in a better basketball league, which leaves you to wonder if he’s really weighed the pros and cons of joining the MAC? But just maybe there’s a deeper reason that no one is talking about?

Although we know where it’s most likely to originate, there’s no clear perspective on how any shift in Division I athletics will occur and how that will impact the Blue Raiders. It’s similar to how we know the next big earthquake will likely occur somewhere in California. It’s what happens next that becomes so unpredictable, and all you can do is prepare as best you can.

There are different avenues of thought on how Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky compliment one another. On one hand, it seems likely that Western’s intent on being in a higher profile basketball conference will split the on again, off again rivalry. On the other hand, Western’s interminable and deliberate move to Division I-A football would afford both Universities a partner opportunity most fans would never be willing to contemplate much less entertain. The Blue Raiders bring to the table an all-around athletics department that (a number of outsiders have been impressed by) includes an improving basketball program and a football program with unlimited potential. Western brings unrivaled basketball tradition for a non-BCS school and both just happen to be in a close proximity to one another in an area that just happens to be in a Top 30 media market. You can draw your own conclusions from that, but remember one final point. Chris Massaro and Selig are still very close friends. Perhaps joined in a unified mission the two schools are more powerful working as one than mutually exclusive of one another?

Before diving further into realignment scenarios, we need to address what happened in the summer of 2003 regarding the MAC. On the heels of losing Marshall and UCF to Conference USA, the MAC began internal discussions about expansion. Those internal discussions quickly led to secret closed-door meetings with both Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee. Contrary to what Western fans believe or think both schools were courted by the MAC; however, there was a catch. The catch was the MAC was only going to offer invitations as a package deal. It was either both or neither.

Then athletic director, Boots Donnelly, made one of his best decisions telling the MAC that MT wasn’t prepared to leave the Sun Belt at that time. As a result, Western Kentucky’s potential invite to the MAC was dealt a major blow. Every year since then, the MAC rumbles emanate from Bowling Green at the end of the academic year.

Since 2003, there has been a healthy debate about whether MT should be considering a move to the MAC. It’s not really clear if the MAC would still be interested in the Blue Raiders considering its overtures were shunned a few years ago. With Temple’s addition to the MAC, it would seem unlikely that Middle Tennessee would be a target. It’s also unclear if Western is still a viable candidate for the MAC without a nearby travel partner.

Despite those uncertainties, we can draw some pros and cons about a hypothetical move to the MAC. For a breakdown of the pros and cons, click here.

Whether he knew why it was or not, Boots Donnelly’s decision to stay in the Sun Belt was the best choice for the long-term success of the Middle Tennessee athletic department. The Blue Raiders do not belong in a conference that has a footprint in the upper Midwest. Should Western Kentucky have the opportunity to join the MAC and seize it, the rivalry between the two schools will fizzle once again as Middle Tennessee looks elsewhere. The Sun Belt Conference represents the best alternative for building Middle Tennessee’s program right now, although the future is rapidly approaching.

It may seem contradictory at this point considering the previous statements, but just about everyone who’s willing to be objective knows the Sun Belt’s existence is a bit tenuous pending the next phase of realignment. Perhaps Wood Selig understands that too, which precipitates his candid desire to join the Mid-American Conference? Selig may very well realize the long-term future of the Sun Belt Conference is fragile, so it’s tough to blame him for wanting to be proactive rather than waiting to see how everyone else’s decisions are going to effect them.

Middle Tennessee’s fate (along with a few other Belt schools) rest primarily at the hands of the Big East and Mountain West. First, how will the Big East split manifest itself? That is probably the single biggest unknown. Second, (and this makes a big assumption about how the Big East split goes down) will the Big East and Mountain West be content with smaller nine-team conferences or will they decide to build 12-team Super Conferences?

The Big East may never move to add four teams. It could be content with adding only one school to form a nine-team conference, but in this day and age of the almighty dollar who is willing to bet on that? If it happened that way, the Sun Belt would thrive as a I-A Conference building up and eventually surpassing the MAC and Western Athletic Conference.

But the reality is C-USA is once again going to take major hits from Big East expansion, and it’s likely to be at the Sun Belt’s expense. At least five teams and maybe even six or seven could depart C-USA for the Big East and Mountain West. The Sun Belt’s demise evolves from a handful of schools jockeying for inclusion to C-USA or the possibility of a merger. Either way, the Sun Belt’s existence – at least as a Division I-A football conference – would dissolve.

Middle Tennessee needs to be a force in the Sun Belt to ensure it is one of the first calls made by C-USA in this particular scenario. Perhaps not moving to the MAC was a bit of a gamble? Be that as it may, the Blue Raiders likely destination in this alternate universe would be a Memphis-less Conference USA. One set of circumstances that could prove to be interesting for Middle Tennessee is whether Memphis would attempt to block C-USA membership should they be snubbed as the ninth and final member of the Big East? The five-game football series with the Tigers and Massaro’s long-time friendship with Memphis athletic director, RC Johnson, is a promising sign and points to better relations with the school to the west. It’s unlikely; however, that Memphis would be left out of any major Big East expansion.

And none of this takes into account what happens if the Mountain West makes the first move or if the Big East split results in a complete collapse of that conference as a I-A entity as we know if today. You can already envision the political backstabbing, schools jockeying for power, and under the table deals being made. And you thought it was messy the first time around with the Big East? The moral to this story is it’s not likely to go down like you think.

As a matter of fact, BlueRaiderzone.com has learned there is a scenario that would be a major coup for Middle Tennessee. It also involves Western Kentucky. Although the scenario that would put the Blue Raiders and Hilltoppers in the ideal conference situation seems far-fetched, stranger things have happened.

Regardless of what scenario eventually plays out, the bottom line for Middle Tennessee is that dominos are going to fall and the Blue Raiders need to be in a position of strength. That means football and men’s basketball must be firing on all cylinders.

April 30, 2006

It is true that each university needs to position itself in a position of strength. I believe that is one of the main reasons North Texas fans are hypercritical about the weakness of our athletic programs, especially football and basketball. If CUSA expanded tomorrow, I'm afraid that it wouldn't be us.

But the conference needs to strengthen itself as well. Right now we are last of the eleven conferences in football and about the same in basketball (at least among those that play 1-A football). We ALL need to win out of conference games in both sports. Beating up on each other will not raise the status of the conference.

So, I think that the Sun Belt needs to expand IF we can get strong 1-AA teams to move up. Our conference was strengthened when Troy moved up. I believe that we should work hard to attract Western Kentucky, Georgia Southern, Appalachian State and Texas State to the SBC for all sports. That would be somewhere near the equivalent of adding four Troys, which I think would be a major plus. Don't add just for the sake of numbers but get solid playoff teams from 1-AA.

Another benefit would be that if a team or two did leave there would still be a great nucleus to keep the league operative. If any football team left the conference now, I don't know that we could get a quick replacement.

LoveMG · April 30, 2006

cusa must be the goal for north texas but an invite will take a new football stadium and some impressive ooc wins. dickey can provide neither.

VideoEagle · April 30, 2006

It's a bit late when I'm reading this, but from what I can gather, this entire "article" from the MT website is a post without any attributes to someone who could actually make a decision for MT or Western. There are references to "secret closed door meetings" - come on!

Did these magical meetings take place on board a UFO in Area 51?

As for being ready if CUSA expands tomorrow - they are NOT expanding tomorrow. There is not the possibility of a chance they are expanding tomorrow. They have 12 teams now and the money from the title game did not equal the added drain of dividing revenue by the added schools. They do not plan to expand and if they lose a school the economics right now say they would not be too fast to find a replacement as the remaining 11 schools would get more money if they don't!

Please relax folks, the world in not about to end.

Cowtown · May 1, 2006

For what ever reason I keep hearing that 2010 is the next shake up.

I think it has something to do with TV contracts.

GMG

VideoEagle · May 1, 2006

For what ever reason I keep hearing that 2010 is the next shake up.
I think it has something to do with TV contracts.
GMG
←

That would make sense. Plus, the football schools in the Big East need to be together for a certain number of years before they could break away from the basketball schools and still have an automatic entry into the NCAA basketball tourney. I think it is six years, but I’m not certain.