A few things seem wrong with the 2005 New Orleans

[WIFE2HOT4U]

Fearless Prediction: New Orleans Bowl

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CollegeFootballNews.com

Posted: 7 minutes ago

2005 New Orleans Bowl

Southern Miss (6-5) vs. Arkansas State (6-5)

Dec. 20, 8 p.m. ET, Lafayette, LA

Also: Keys and Analysis | GameTrax

A few things seem wrong with the 2005 New Orleans Bowl. First of all, it's not in New Orleans. Katrina made sure of that forcing the kickoff to the bowl season to be moved to Lafayette, Louisiana. Second, there's no North Texas for the first time in the bowl's four-year history.

Fine, so Arkansas State might not get the heart racing, but it's the first time in a bowl for the Jonesboro school meaning they should bring plenty of fire and excitement. The Indians won a three-way tie-breaker with UL Lafayette and UL Monroe to earn the Sun Belt's post-season bid, but they have to play better than the Mean Green did over the last few seasons.

Southern Miss whacked North Texas 31-10 in last year's New Orleans Bowl, and intensity might be a problem in this year's bowl. After all, this is a program that wants to play anyone, anywhere and anytime. Arkansas State might not be quite what the team had in mind for its post-season foe.

Don't let the 6-5 record fool you; this is a good Golden Eagle team with three losses by four points or fewer. Offensive consistency has been a problem, and the defense hasn't been up to its usual snuff, but the special teams have been fantastic, there are plenty of big defensive hitters, and just enough veterans on offense to potentially come through with an efficient, business-like win.

However, Arkansas State doesn't plan on being a pushover. Yeah, the Indians got pasted 38-10 by Army just a few weeks ago, and yeah, the offense did absolutely nothing against any defense with a pulse, but they have just enough of a running game to make this interesting if Southern Miss isn't pumped up.

Players to watch: Arkansas State has absolutely no chance of keeping this close unless RB Antonio Warren has a huge day. The senior hit the 100-yard mark in eight of the nine games he played in, but his numbers weren't always enough to carry the offense. He has good quickness and functional speed, but his game is pounding the ball. He can be a workhorse when needed, and he's decent at grinding out the tough yards.

Indian QB Nick Noce has to push the ball deep early to open up the Southern Miss defense. He's not much of a bomber, and he only threw two touchdown passes over the final five games of the season, but he's a veteran leader with good mobility. Noce doesn't have to throw for big yards, but he has to be efficient and he can't turn the ball over.

Southern Miss QB Dustin Almond has had a shaky bowl career, to say the least. He ran well in a 2002 Houston Bowl loss to Oklahoma State, but he completed 11 of 27 passes. He had one of the uglier bowl performances in 2003 against the Utah defense completing 11 of 33 passes in a 17-0 Liberty Bowl loss. He made amends in last year's New Orleans Bowl with a competent game in the win over North Texas, but he'd like to close out his career with a big statement. With no running game to speak off to help out the passing game, Almond has to be on.

Why Arkansas State might win: Southern Miss doesn't care. Overconfidence could a be a big, big problem for the Golden Eagles, and ASU has to take advantage with a few long, sustained early drives to take control right away. While the USM defense can tackle, it can be pushed around and it will give up rushing yards in chunks. However, it also forces a lot of turnovers, so ASU has to make sure it holds on to the ball and doesn't give away any cheap points. ASU must win the turnover battle by at least +2.

Why Southern Miss might win: It runs for over 100 yards. Almond is a good enough veteran to win the game by himself if he has to, but the Golden Eagles would rather not take that chance. They're 5-0 when they rush for more than 100 yards, and 1-5 when they don't with the one victory coming against UCF when Almond threw for five scores. ASU has allowed 100 rushing yards or more in eight games this season, and 90 yards or more in two other games. In other words, USM has to pound the ball, not turn it over, and play hard to get the win.

What will happen: This might not be pretty if Southern Miss is prepared. Arkansas State might be the worst bowl team to get a post-season bid since the start of the BCS era, and it won't be able to do much on either side of the ball against a Golden Eagle team looking to go out with a bang.

Line: Southern Miss -17

http://msn.foxsports.com/cfb/story/5171918

[NTEagle08]

Arkansas State might be the worst bowl team to get a post-season bid since the start of the BCS era

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Ouch, not too far from the truth though.

[NM Green]

This is a tough draw, because Southern Miss rarely enters the post season without complete preparation. Add to that their fans will be there in mass and will be loud. Arkie State is going to have to weather the early storm, but this could be a Colorado State vs North Texas situation all over again.

GO ASU!

GMG

[Stan R]

oh well, it may be a massacre but I'm still going to watch it. At least I'll watch it until it gets ugly.

[TIgreen01]

oh well, it may be a massacre but I'm still going to watch it.  At least I'll watch it until it gets ugly. 

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Agreed....and I think the article is dead on after seeing both teams in person over the past 12 months....ASU isn't very good and USM seems like they should be better than 6-5---but that's exactly why I think this could be a game (yes, my score prediction is 48-0 USM). USM SHOULD be better than 6-5---how in the world are they not?? Maybe ASU can exploit them...

[GangGreen]

Ouch, not too far from the truth though.

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Truthfully, I would have to say our 2001 team was worse. After watching the game tonight, I would have to say our 2004 team would have lost to 2005 ASU.

[foutsrouts]

Arky State did a very good job. To me they were at LEAST as good as S. Miss. The front defensive seven of S. Miss was very good, but I was also very impressed by the front defensive seven of the Indians. Arky State was not even close to being manhandled like we were last year. Just a few bad bounces at the wrong time. A couple of good QB's to go along with a couple of pretty good looking defenses. Not a bad game. Hope we find a QB to get us back next year.

[UNTFan23]

ASU never got a sack in the game and the OL opened some good holes for the ground game, so the OL did their job. The USM QB looked really sharp showing potential for play beyond college.

The key to ASU being as close as they were was a slow start by Southern Miss and Noce running loose on the field.

There at the end, it looked like ASU just wore down. I think, while it was tough on USM at the end, their schedule really played to their advantage because the players looked like they were very well conditioned and never got tired.