Real Numbers Read Them

KingDL1 · October 6, 2005

I see no reason to hold onto the current system that supposedly is built to our strengths. Because right now, it isn't our strength and we have fallen back to 1999 all over again. Yes, it's worked against much weaker Belt teams...barely on many occasions I might add, and moreso due to the fact that we have had a very good defense to keep us alive which in truth, has been our true strength. We do not have that now.
During our Conference run we have won 14 games by ten points or less. 6 of those were by 5 points or less, 5 of them were by 3 points or less. Our so called strong running game in the previous 4 years has lost to two provisional 1-AA schools and has been stuffed by numerous unranked OOC teams including 3 beatings in the bowl games.
During our 26 conference game winning streak, which started in '01, we have beaten 2 teams with a WINNING RECORD. That's TWO TEAMS!!!!!!!
An 8-3 MTSU team in only their 2nd full year in 1-A, and a 7-5 NMSU team in '02.
So for me the conservative running game has been good against Belt teams. But I expected more improvement by now. It's been 8 years to build depth in this system and it's failed miserably. The current system has been proven to be easily defended by non Belt opponents, and now by them as well. I see no reason how it would disrupt the program to change to a more updated, open style of offense at the end of the year. Bring in a Todd Dodge or someone else as OC who can teach the system and start from there. We would have nothing to lose.
Rick
←

It constantly amazes me how little people pay attention, above are listed the real numbers of the real games of the Glory of DD not so hot.

People look into it yourself get off the DD Kool-Aid® and realize this is not the rebuilding year many are making of it. Put DDs head on the line now period.

meangreendork · October 6, 2005

For those calling for Dickey's head-

1.) Where is the buyout cash going to come from?

2.) Where is the money for the new coach going to come from?

3.) Who would be willing to come here?

KingDL1 · October 6, 2005

For those calling for Dickey's head-
1.) Where is the buyout cash going to come from?
2.) Where is the money for the new coach going to come from?
3.) Who would be willing to come here?
←

Those are great questions, I don't have all the answers but I would think there are those that could, I bet that RV could come up with a plan.

The saying "strike while the iron is hot" I don't believe we can wait until DD has a complete meltdown, I don't believe our attendance would recover.

There are always coaches out there, I alway thought a lot of Gary DeLoach.

But #3 may be a really good question for Hayden Fry.

Edited October 6, 2005 by KingDL1

Got5onIt · October 6, 2005

For those calling for Dickey's head-
3.) Who would be willing to come here?
←

The Offensive coordinators for successful Mid Major programs. As much as we hate to admit it, we need to find a coach that's looking to push his career into a new path by using a head coaching spot as NT as a stepping stone. It would be a mutually beneficial relationship. He would be able to move onto bigger and better things when NT has been established as a highly competetive program at the D1 level. NT gains recruiting power, increased exposure, and potential increase in revenue while he moves onto a bigger program for more money.

Green Nightmare · October 6, 2005

Would you rather sell the program to a future coach at this point, coming off 4 titles and bowls, increased fan base, facilities improvements etc or in 3 years if we dont get back on track and now we are a losing program with no real plan to turn it around.

The next coach that will use it as a stepping stone needs to see there is a chance he can get it done in 3-5. They dont want a 10 year stop

eulesseagle · October 6, 2005

KingDL1:........what gives dude????

1. 1991 - 1993... Dennis Parker's record...........11-21.......34%

2. 1994 - 1997... Matt Simon's record...............18-26-1....40%

3. The last 4 years of DD record......................29-21.......58%

(note: I only put in the last 4 years to emphasize what a rebuilding project he had to do when he accepted the job as Head Coach in 1998).

Our OOC games have been against, in the last 4 years:

TCU 2x, Oklahoma 2x, Texas 2x, Texas Tech, Colorado State, Alabama, Arizona, Cincinatti, Air Force, Arkansas, Memphis, Baylor, and Southern Miss..

1. You complain about OOC wins with these programs???? In my humble opionion that accomplishment would be difficult for just about any school!!!!

2. I think you would have the right to complain if we lost to schools like:

Ball State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Ohio University, Vanderbilt, New Mexico State, Utah State etc etc etc........

------There is a BIG difference loosing to schools like Oklahoma & Texas in our OOC schedule than loosing to schools like Ball State & E. Mich.------

I hate to admit it KingDL1 but YOU did NOT put much thought in your ramblings.

_____________________________________________________________________

untgirl04 · October 6, 2005

You've forgotten Nicholls State, Central Florida, and Florida Atlantic. Nicholls State is a AA school and Florida Atlantic was provisional 1-A. Also, we played Baylor twice: thumped them once then got thumped back the next year.

If you're going to post numbers to support your thoughts, post the whole truth. You might find your points aren't as well supported.

The Fake Lonnie Finch · October 6, 2005

The funniest part of the post is the part that says "this is not a rebuilding year." Yeah. Sure it isn't. New starting linemen, new starting QB, nine new starters on defense. Rebuilding? Nah. Every team replaces about 13 starters a year.

Freaking hi-larious.

Edited October 6, 2005 by The Fake Lonnie Finch

LongJim · October 6, 2005

It constantly amazes me how little people pay attention, above are listed the real numbers of the real games of the Glory of DD not so hot.
People look into it yourself get off the DD Kool-Aid® and realize this is not the rebuilding year many are making of it. Put DDs head on the line now period.
←

Those numbers don't tell the whole story, and neither do these below. I'm posting them to illustrate how #'s can show anything you want:

Mack Brown's Big 12 Conf. Record Stats: 2001-2004

# Games: 32

Games decided by 4 points or less or LOSSES: 11

He should be fired immediately!!

eulesseagle · October 6, 2005

UNTgirl04: My point, which you missed, is having an OOC schedule "loaded" with and loosing to the Top Tier Programs (BCS schools) verses having an OOC schedule "loaded" with mid-major and D-1AA (non BCS schools) and loosing to them!!

You have to remember that UNT is a MID-MAJOR program (non BCS). Traditionally, Non-BCS programs can not recruit as well as Texas, Oklahoma, Arizona, Alabama, Arkansas....etc.....(BCS programs).

Mid Major programs loose against major BCS schools at a greater frequency than putting up a "W."

Mid Major programs win against D-1AA programs at a greater frequency than putting a "L."

UNTgirl04....if you want numbers look at the wins that UNT has had against OOC BCS programs and wins against other Mid Major programs and D-1AA programs and see if we fall within the "norm!!!!!" BUT do not expect UNT to have a consistant winning record against major programs like Texas, Oklahoma, K-State, Alabama, Arizona, Air Force etc..........we may catch one of these programs on a bad Saturday and win.

UNTgirl04....you will have to show me what Mid-Major program has a consistant winning record against BCS schools in the last four years to make your argument hold any water!!!!!......other than that......well i will have to disagree with your premise and line of argument.

Eagle-96 · October 6, 2005

KingDL1:........what gives dude????
1. 1991 - 1993... Dennis Parker's record...........11-21.......34%
2. 1994 - 1997... Matt Simon's record...............18-26-1....40%
3. The last 4 years of DD record......................29-21.......58%
(note: I only put in the last 4 years to emphasize what a rebuilding project he had to do when he accepted the job as Head Coach in 1998).
Our OOC games have been against, in the last 4 years:
TCU 2x, Oklahoma 2x, Texas 2x, Texas Tech, Colorado State, Alabama, Arizona, Cincinatti, Air Force, Arkansas, Memphis, Baylor, and Southern Miss..
1. You complain about OOC wins with these programs???? In my humble opionion that accomplishment would be difficult for just about any school!!!!
2. I think you would have the right to complain if we lost to schools like:
Ball State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Ohio University, Vanderbilt, New Mexico State, Utah State etc etc etc........
------There is a BIG difference loosing to schools like Oklahoma & Texas in our OOC schedule than loosing to schools like Ball State & E. Mich.------
I hate to admit it KingDL1 but YOU did NOT put much thought in your ramblings.
_____________________________________________________________________
←

I will admit that OU and UT are powerhouses and are very tough opponents but lets look at the records of the other OOC opponents the year we played them:

2001:

TCU: 6-6(not a good team)

Texas Tech: 7-5(1 win against 1-AA)

South Florida: 8-3(4 wins against 1-AA teams)

Troy:7-4(transitional 1-A)

Colorado State: 7-5(decent team)

2002:

Alabama: 10-3(good but not great)

TCU: 10-2(another team that is pretty good)

Arizona: 4-8(1 win against 1-AA)

South Florida: 9-2(2 wins agains 1-AA)

2003:

Air Force: 7-5(1 win against 1-AA)

Arkansas: 9-4(pretty good team)

Memphis: 9-4

2004:

Florida Atlantic: 9-3(transitionl 1-A)

Colorado: 8-5(pretty good)

Baylor: 3-8(1 win against 1-AA)

Southern Miss: 7-5(decent team)

Yes I complain about OOC losses to these teams. They are not exactly world beaters we were playing.

SpaceMonkey · October 6, 2005

UNTgirl04....you will have to show me what Mid-Major program has a consistant winning record against BCS schools in the last four years to make your argument hold any water!!!!!......other than that......well i will have to disagree with your premise and line of argument.
←

I'd say Utah is pretty darn good example over the last couple years. Other schools such as Boise State have amassed impressive records and been ranked occasionally in the top 10 and consistently in the top 25 over the last few years too. Boise State is not in a BCS conferece. Neither is TCU and they just beat OU this season (after stepping up to a better conference), and 4 or 5 years ago were playing gangbuster football. People thought TCU might be the first non-BCS team to make the BCS back then. The list goes on and on. There's always a surprise team who ends up having a great season either due to surprise recruiting, an inexplicably inspired team, they catch all the breaks, etc.

There's no reason to think UNT can't be one of those teams. I mean it was just 2 or 3 years ago that people were yammering that we ought to switch to C-USA, or Midwest. In fact, I still sort of think that switching conferences will help our recruiting as much or more than any other incentive that has been listed on this board in the last few days.

El Paso Eagle · October 6, 2005

KingDL1:........what gives dude????
1. 1991 - 1993... Dennis Parker's record...........11-21.......34%
2. 1994 - 1997... Matt Simon's record...............18-26-1....40%
3. The last 4 years of DD record......................29-21.......58%
(note: I only put in the last 4 years to emphasize what a rebuilding project he had to do when he accepted the job as Head Coach in 1998).
_____________________________________________________________________
←

Eulesseagle,

With all due respect you lose all credibility for you post when you start out by saying you are not counting DD first years. Parker and Simon also came into programs that were hurting. Why did you not pick and choose which of their W’s and L’s to count? The strange thing about numbers/facts – if you use all of the information it has a basis to be used or considered, when you start manipulating the numbers it looks a though you are trying to hide the truth!

adman · October 6, 2005

I will admit that OU and UT are powerhouses and are very tough opponents but lets look at the records of the other OOC opponents the year we played them:
2001:
TCU: 6-6(not a good team)
Texas Tech: 7-5(1 win against 1-AA)
South Florida: 8-3(4 wins against 1-AA teams)
Troy:7-4(transitional 1-A)
Colorado State: 7-5(decent team)
2002:
Alabama: 10-3(good but not great)
TCU: 10-2(another team that is pretty good)
Arizona: 4-8(1 win against 1-AA)
South Florida: 9-2(2 wins agains 1-AA)
2003:
Air Force: 7-5(1 win against 1-AA)
Arkansas: 9-4(pretty good team)
Memphis: 9-4
2004:
Florida Atlantic: 9-3(transitionl 1-A)
Colorado: 8-5(pretty good)
Baylor: 3-8(1 win against 1-AA)
Southern Miss: 7-5(decent team)
Yes I complain about OOC losses to these teams. They are not exactly world beaters we were playing.
←

To say ANY SEC team is "pretty good" or "good but not great" is idiotic. Take any SEC team, minus vandy, and put them in any conference and they will finish 9 times out of 10 #1 in that conf. Can't complain about a loss to Bama or the Hogs

eulesseagle · October 6, 2005

SPACEMONKEY: Like I said, "show me the winning percentage of wins that MID-MAJOR PROGRAMS ( even the ones you mentioned, TCU, Utah and Boise State) had against BCS schools.......do not just say they are pretty good programs.

Show me the numbers like i stated in my post!!!

j0nat8an · October 6, 2005

i think DD needs to go back to the chalkboard and teach his guys that "loosing" is not a word and if we score less points than the other team we did not "loose" the game.

eulesseagle · October 6, 2005

ElPasoEagle--you make a valid point about deleting the first 3 years of DD at UNT:

1998: 3-8

1999: 2-9

2000: 3-8

That works out to a 24% winning percentage!!!

From 2001 to 2004 DD had a 29-21 record which works out to a 58% winning percentage!!! Glad to know that you wanted to know the sucessful comparison that DD has had from his first 3 years vs his last 4. Thank you.

El Paso Eagle · October 6, 2005

ElPasoEagle--you make a valid point about deleting the first 3 years of DD at UNT:
1998: 3-8
1999: 2-9
2000: 3-8
That works out to a 24% winning percentage!!!
From 2001 to 2004 DD had a 29-21 record which works out to a 58% winning percentage!!! Glad to know that you wanted to know the sucessful comparison that DD has had from his first 3 years vs his last 4. Thank you.
←

ANOTHER way to look at it is to note the "change" in success once we joined the Belt

Who is to say that Parker or Simon might not have had better records if they stayed longer - ESPICALLY if they had the chance to compete in the Sun Belt

Eagle-96 · October 6, 2005

To say ANY SEC team is "pretty good" or "good but not great" is idiotic. Take any SEC team, minus vandy, and put them in any conference and they will finish 9 times out of 10 #1 in that conf. Can't complain about a loss to Bama or the Hogs
←

How is that idiotic? I guess that every team in the SEC is a powerhouse in your opinion. First you say "Take any team in the SEC and then you say minus Vandy. Well they are in the SEC right? What about Miss State the last 4 years they are 11-35. Kentucky is 15-31(outstanding record)Ole Miss is 28-20(not exactly setting the world on fire). South Carolina is 25-22(stellar).

eulesseagle · October 6, 2005

ElPasoEagle--If you remember the SBC was a step above the Big West, at that time, which was at the time that the BWC was disolving. Everyone was in favor of moving to a better conference. Personally, UNT should always strive to get into a better conference but until that time arrives we still have to win in football, basketball and all other athletics as well as upgrade our facilities.

UNT terminated Dennis Parker, when we were moving from D-1AA to D-1 for a "Big Time Pac-10" assistant coach from Washington, Matt Simon.

Personally, I think we should have kept Corky Nelson who like DD had a poor showing his first four years 16-28-1 (35%) vs. his last five years 32-24 (57%).

As long as UNT can stay dominant in the SBC we will always will have a chance to move up to a better conference. This is why it is important to (as Dandy Don would say), "Dance with the one who brung ya."

Eagle-96 · October 6, 2005

SPACEMONKEY: Like I said, "show me the winning percentage of wins that MID-MAJOR PROGRAMS ( even the ones you mentioned, TCU, Utah and Boise State) had against BCS schools.......do not just say they are pretty good programs.
Show me the numbers like i stated in my post!!!
←

from 2001-2004(your timeframe not mine)

Utah: 9-4 (69%)(played in a BCS Bowl last season)

Bowling Green: 6-2 (75%)

Louisville: 8-3 (73%) (parlayed their record into a BCS conference invite)

Fresno State: 9-6 (60%)

Edited October 6, 2005 by Eagle-96

Travis · October 6, 2005

Talking to a WR the year we moved into SBC he said, "thank God we are going into the SBC. It is much easier and we have a chance to win this thing now that we are gone from the BWC." At least in the mind of this individual he thought the SBC was a step down in competition.

Plus, it seems that way anyhow.

NCMeanGreen · October 6, 2005

KingDL1:........what gives dude????
1. 1991 - 1993... Dennis Parker's record...........11-21.......34%
2. 1994 - 1997... Matt Simon's record...............18-26-1....40%
3. The last 4 years of DD record......................29-21.......58%
(note: I only put in the last 4 years to emphasize what a rebuilding project he had to do when he accepted the job as Head Coach in 1998).
Our OOC games have been against, in the last 4 years:
TCU 2x, Oklahoma 2x, Texas 2x, Texas Tech, Colorado State, Alabama, Arizona, Cincinatti, Air Force, Arkansas, Memphis, Baylor, and Southern Miss..
1. You complain about OOC wins with these programs???? In my humble opionion that accomplishment would be difficult for just about any school!!!!
2. I think you would have the right to complain if we lost to schools like:
Ball State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Ohio University, Vanderbilt, New Mexico State, Utah State etc etc etc........
------There is a BIG difference loosing to schools like Oklahoma & Texas in our OOC schedule than loosing to schools like Ball State & E. Mich.------
I hate to admit it KingDL1 but YOU did NOT put much thought in your ramblings.
_____________________________________________________________________
←

Oh please, give me a break. We SHOULD and DEFINTELY COULD beat the likes of TCU, Texas Tech, Colorado State, Arizona, Cincinatti, Air Force, Memphis, Baylor, and Southern Miss..

I cannot even believe you would assume that these teams are such great POWERHOUSES so that the 4X SB Champ (for what that is really worth) could not beat, much less compete, with the likes of a Cincinatti, Air Force, Memphis, Baylor, and Southern Miss.

Bad argument...makes us look even more patheitc than we already are!

SilverEagle · October 6, 2005

Personally, I think we should have kept Corky Nelson who like DD had a poor showing his first four years 16-28-1 (35%) vs. his last five years 32-24 (57%).
←

I agree with that. When I was asked to participate in a focus group at the end of the 90 season, I could tell by their questions that the plan was to move up to D-1. When I found out that Corky was being fired, I said "Hell, why don't they give him the resources that they are planning to give the future coaches and see what he can do?" Geeezzzz, Corky had a better OCC record against D-1 teams than any of the above mentioned coaches and he did it with a 1-AA budget and 20 fewer "ships". And I never once heard him whine about his situation.

SpaceMonkey · October 6, 2005

Thanks e-96. I was about to quote him and go find my numbers, but you saved me the trouble.

Euless, no one is saying that Mid-Majors are always better. But you should be careful not make yourself sound dumb by saying that they aren't ever successfull. Clearly, some have been.