Possible Future Realignment

El Paso Eagle · July 25, 2005

Based on a lack of football related news, and the always ongoing speculation of where the Mean Green might end up one day, here are some guesses based on “what-If” in the next round of realignments all conference are forced to go to 12 teams so that each conference has the Conference Championship game. Why do I think this might happen? First it generates revenue and second, if you cap the number of conferences it controls the number of moves from 1-AA to 1-A.

Conferences currently (2005) at 12

ACC

BIG 12

CUSA

MAC

SEC

Others (number of 2005 teams)

Big East (8)

Big 10 (11)

MWC (9)

Pac-10 (10)

Sun Belt (8)

WAC (9)

POSSIBLE REALIGNMENTS

Current BCS Conferences

ACC – No Changes

SEC

Would like to get rid of Vanderbilt but that does not seem likely. If Arkansas should look to the Big 12 Louisville might be an option.

Big 12

Possible losses – Missouri (has shown interest in the past in the Big 10) –Colorado has shown interest in the Pac-10 in the past. Possible Add - not sure but the potential is there for Arkansas, could also look to Colorado State

Big 10

Possible Adds - Would love to add Notre Dame, Missouri also a possibility. Coluld Penn State leave?

Pac 10

Possible Adds – If they stay in the region – BYU and Utah, could look to Colorado (don’t forget at the time of the

Big East

Would love to add Notre Dame. Could also see the possibility of adding Army and Navy. Louisville and Pittsburg could move to one of the other conferences if their success holds up. I think they might then make a run at some of the “old” C-USA teams – Memphis, East Carolina, Southern Miss – Central Florida might be a good move to pair up with South Florida.

NEXT IN LINE

Mountain West

The teams that would seem to fit are Boise State, Fresno, and UTEP. While Hawaii might sound good the travel expenses for the non-revenue sports hurt their chances. Would the Mean Green make a good travel partner for TCU?

THE REST

CUSA, Sun Belt, MAC, WAC

Based on the current number of 1-A schools there are 34 schools left. At best a couple of current 1-AA’s move up to give you enough for 3 conferences. In this case my best guess is these 4 are rearranged into 3 conferences (also would not be surprised to see Hawaii become an Independent). The other option is that several teams return to 1-AA and perhaps only 2 conferences come out of the 4.

untgirl04 · July 25, 2005

I see Hawaii dropping down to I-AA moreso than them going independent. Or rather, if they do go independent, they'll end up I-AA very quickly. The only reason Notre Dame has lasted as an indpendent is because of the great TV contracts and the history of the school.

Hawaii has neither. I think it is becoming increasingly difficult for Hawaii to stay in a conference because of the travel expenses and their lackluster football performance. You can pretty much write off any traveling fans, so they can't really help opponents reach their NCAA attendance requirements for Hawaii away games. Basically, it all comes down to money. The trip over, while a great vacation, is not pocketbook-friendly.

El Paso Eagle · July 25, 2005

The problem for Hawaii will not be football; they will always be able to schedule 8 or 9 (or more) home games if they wish to. Also, they will always have the tie-ins with the Bowl Games in Hawaii. The problem for Hawaii will be in the men’s non-revenue sports and the women’s programs. The cost associated with any conference to travel is a killer. That’s why in the end they will most likely stay in the WAC (mainly because the WAC, if it stays together as a conference) will not kick them out.

Arkstfan · July 25, 2005

My take

-ACC no change

-Big XII no change unless something bizarre happens

-Big 10 no change unless Notre Dame becomes interested or they become so determined to expand that they turn to Nebraska, Mizzou or Syracuse. I don't think that is likely.

-Big East might add one team down the road. They have to fend off the MWC's run at gaining their auto berth so they cannot add any school that might lower their strength.

-Pac-10 no change. They are going to a full round robin schedule in football. Home games vs. USC and UCLA are very important to ticket sales around the league, anyone that could end up losing home games against them is against expansion. Besides no school that comes close to fitting their model is available other than Utah.

-SEC no change.

-MWC they are in striking distance of stealing away the Big East's auto berth. League (except TCU) is built on driving distance rivalries, going to 12 means a chance their best team gets knocked off on the cusp of a BCS bowl. No team fits their model more solidly than Boise State. Not likely they go to 11 or 12.

-CUSA. A house divided. The biggest mish-mash league out there with four privates and 8 state schools. Remains to be seen if they can hold reasonably close to the MWC level or will drift toward a WAC level with a few good schools and some schools that are placeholders.

-MAC with 12 full members and 1 football only the MAC has to figure out whether to stand pat or add one or wait and see what happens with Temple long-term.

-Sun Belt can make up ground on CUSA needs Denver to find a geographically appropriate home needs an additional full member.

-WAC the WAC is finding a nice niche with a couple nationally relevant teams and the remainder being the best available to fill out the numbers (placeholders). Only disconnect is La.Tech.