Baseball Preview

Coach · February 9, 2005

I will post my baseball preview on here as I turn them out, so anyone can read them.

Feel free to comment or start discussion, there isn't enough baseball talk on here.

Edited February 19, 2005 by Coach

Texas Stranger · February 9, 2005

--The Mets will either win or lose 95+ games. I'm thinking there's a 50/50 chance of either. Some reports have Piazza playing catcher (until injured again).

--most reports have Mota as Marlins' closer, with Alfonseca as insurance if Mota can't handle it. Miguel Cabrera is already a superstar, and at age 21 how good will he be when he learns how to hit ? He's already a .310+ BA, 40+ HR candidate. Florida made the move they had to make acquiring Delgado to protect him in the lineup. Josh Beckett, with his blistering fastball (rock me!) is my 2nd pick to win the NL Cy Young (after Roy Oswalt). The Marlins are my pick to win the NL East.

--The Braves need continued development of 1B Adam LaRoche to offset the gradual slowing down of Chipper. Smoltz will handle the return to the rotation just fine. The Braves are due some bad luck, and if they finally get it their streak will likely end in this improving division. Furcal is the best SS in the NL, where the competition is much easier than the AL.

--The Phillies have some great young talent playing before the most second-most undeserving fans in professional sports (after the A's). 2B Chase Utley is one of my sleeper picks to have a big breakthrough year. Billy Wagner is another year older, but still shows he can bring it. Some scouts have long been predicting a major breakdown for Randy Wolf with his scary cross-body delivery, but Wolf may be one of those rare rubber-armed pitchers who just don't get injured. Thome is in his mid-30's now, but just flat out punishes the ball. He's the NL version of Palmeiro.

--The Expos, now Nationals system has developed top talent for MLB for many years. Hopefully, they will be stabilized and be able to keep those players, instead of watching them walk (or be forced to trade them) like Vladi, Pedro, Larry Walker, Randy Johnson, etc, etc, etc. Jose Vidro's career is startlingly similar to Julio Franco's so far. Not a bad career to have, Vidro is just 30.

My NL East order:

Marlins

Braves

Phillies

Mets

Nationals

Coach · February 9, 2005

Josh Beckett, with his blistering fastball (rock me!) is my 2nd pick to win the NL Cy Young (after Roy Oswalt).

Nice. Who needs the Cy Young when you have Leean Tweeden?

I like the Marlins too. I'm suprised they will look at Mota at closer first. He is so great as a setup man, why mess with that?

Texas Stranger · February 9, 2005

Brad Lidge was a great setup man, too

Coach · February 9, 2005

Just put up NL Central. It was a real chore late at night and the bottom half is boring as heck. Nothing like scouring the Reds offseason moves and roster at 12:30....Anyway, check the top post for the link.

Coffee and TV · February 10, 2005

"They will need his production even when Berkman returns because Bagwell and Biggio cannot come close to their old numbers. "

Not quite.

Biggio is coming off one of his best career years, Bagwell finally altered his swing last year and hit a lot better in the 2nd half. If he can keep his shoulder in good shape he'll be fine.

Lane will step in nicely for Beltran. In Beltran playing full seasons his batting average is weak. He fit in well with Houston but losing him isn't as big of a loss as everyone's making it out to be.

You're absolutely right though, middle relief will be a big ? this year.

Coach · February 10, 2005

Your comment on Biggio intrigued me so I looked at his stats. He hit for more power than he has in his career, but he has typically been a leadoff guy and his average was .05 lower than his career average (.43 under career best), and his OBP was .36 lower than his career average (.78 under career best). So, it seems like he is making the transition away from a speed and contact oriented game to a more powerful approach. That really diminishes his value because guys that can play OF and hit 20 homers are a dime a dozen but leadoff types are rare.

Bagwell, well all his numbers were well below his career average and in a different ballpark than his career highs.

This is no slight to either of them, unless you utilize the cream and the clear production will begin to drop once reaching a certain age. They aren't what they used to be, but that probably goes for most of us as well.

SUMG · February 10, 2005

I love the Astros as much as I do the Rangers (because the Stros were around when I was a kid; Rangers didn't get here 'til I was 15).

So, last year was a blast (finally seeing a Texas team win a baseball playoff series).

Chris Burke will be a key to this team's success. He hit well at AAA (.315, 16 homers; also 37 SBs).

A guy that I would love to see make the Astros team: speedy center fielder Willy Tavares. I'd love to see Tavares, Biggio and Lane in the OF, until Lance comes back. Starting Orlando Palmeiro does nothing for me.

I agree that the Cardinals are the team to beat.

My longshot darkhorse for the NL Central: Milwaukee. Doug Melvin is a genius at finding good talent cheaply (i.e. Doug Davis and Danny Kolb, both of whom should still be with the Rangers). Also, Milwaukee has maybe the most talent ready to blossom out of the minor leagues....of any team in baseball).

Coach · February 10, 2005

Just from what I have done so far, Milwaukee and Tampa Bay have the best young talent. But with both of those teams, there are some tough teams at the top of the division that are not ready to be knocked off this year, but a year or two down the road, they could have the guys to do it.