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Want to complicate this even further, factor in things that have less to do with metrics and skill, and more to do with chance, luck, and/or chaos. That one team gets uncharacteristically hot, or another just has cosmically bad shooting day, completely uncharacteristic of how they've previously played or their seeding.
Whether these things help an underdog get the win, or a favored team get an exceptionally large blowout win, are part of the stories that make this tournament so unpredictable and endearing.
Exactly.
It's kinda like a tennis tournament...the high seeded players tend to win a couple of rounds before they get challenged.
And also, we may only get about one upset of a 1-3 seed a year -- but that doesn't mean we don't get another scare or two. This year has been relatively light on upsets so far though.
Also, I should hasten to add...blowouts happen in the tournament even with two fairly evenly matched teams. Utah State was a trendy "upset" pick (a 10 over a 7 isn't really that much of an upset normally). UCLA threw them down an elevator shaft last night.
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