AAC Tourney Prediction

[Son Of A Flying Worm]

The CBC is a Fox Sports tournament focused on conferences for which they have TV rights: Big 10, Big 12, Big East. Their selection process will feature at large teams, but I'd be floored if we received an invitation. The tournament isn't geared toward us.

We would get a NIT invitation and at least one game at the Super Pit based on the more mid-major friendly selection criteria this year and the number of SEC teams who will qualify for the NCAAT alone. Not to pile on to @Matt from A700 because he's an awesome fan, but the idea of declining a NIT invitation to participate in the CBI --- a pay-for-play tournament with absolutely no prestige --- is wild. It ain't gonna happen.

However, I agree with @Matt from A700 and others who have stated that the way for us to grow our fan base and the respect of a broad audience is through the big dance. Gotta consistently get there and win. Diehards and hoop heads know we have a really good program, but the little brother tournaments don't move the needle.

Wouldn't it be awesome if the men's and women's teams made it to the big dance this year? Fingers and toes crossed.

[greenminer]

30 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Tell me y'all wouldn't love to get a crack at the Longhorns/Ponies/Horned Frogs/Tar Heels/Villanova/etc... in POSTSEASON PLAY.

Between the people that vote NO when it comes to the NIT, and another group of people that think losing to High Point, Utah State, and McNeese State is pathetic....I think there is some overlap.  Probably a lot.

[NorthTexasWeLove]

46 minutes ago, greenminer said:

Between the people that vote NO when it comes to the NIT, and another group of people that think losing to High Point, Utah State, and McNeese State is pathetic....I think there is some overlap.  Probably a lot.

Losing to HP and Mcneese is pathetic. Js. Bad scheduling = bad losses. 

[MeanGreenTexan]

5 minutes ago, greenminer said:

Between the people that vote NO when it comes to the NIT, and another group of people that think losing to High Point, Utah State, and McNeese State is pathetic....I think there is some overlap.  Probably a lot.

I get having high standards and all...  but honestly, I think we're already there. 
Over the past 7 regular seasons, we've won:
'18-19: 21 games
'19-20: 20 games
'20-21: 17 games (5 games cancelled due to Covid)   
'21-22: 24 games
'22-23: 26 games
'23-24: 18 games (Mac->Hodge transition) 
'24-25: 23 games

During that same stretch, we've won the CBI Championship, the NIT Championship, and a NCAA Tourney game during post season play. 

Basketball people recognize us as a very good team.

[Matt from A700]

2 hours ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Tell me y'all wouldn't love to get a crack at the Longhorns/Ponies/Horned Frogs/Tar Heels/Villanova/etc... in POSTSEASON PLAY.

I would love to play a team like that in the postseason, especially at home, if they accept the bid. Last year 15 P6's declined the invite.

[CMJ]

2 hours ago, Big Z said:

Why are we even talking about NIT right now? 

Fans - some want NIT

UNT Basketball Players - "We really have some fans that think we are not good enough for the NCAA Tournament?"

 

I don't think anyone WANTS the NIT per se.  The only debate was if it'd be better to be one and done in the NCAAs vs a deep run to the semis of the NIT and/or win it.  Having experienced both situations as a fan, I know which I preferred (NIT title).

 

Since I don't know the future, anyone with a brain would rather take a chance at the NCAA Tournament because a Sweet 16 type of run (which given our defensive style of play would frustrate many/most schools and is a possibility) would be the biggest thing to happen to our athletic program since the Don January Golf National Championships.

 

We can totally win the AAC this weekend.  Should we do so, we're exactly the kind of squad your average 5 seed doesn't want to see.

Edited yesterday at 07:14 PM by CMJ

[MeanGreenTexan]

27 minutes ago, CMJ said:

I don't think anyone WANTS the NIT per se.  The only debate was if it'd be better to be one and done in the NCAAs vs a deep run to the semis of the NIT and/or win it.  Having experienced both situations as a fan, I know which I preferred.

 

Since I don't know the future, anyone with a brain would rather take a chance at the NCAA Tournament because a Sweet 16 type of run (which given our defensive style of play would frustrate many/most schools and is a possibility) would be the biggest thing to happen to our athletic program since the Don January Golf National Championships.

 

We can totally win the AAC this weekend.  Should we do so, we're exactly the kind of squad your average 5 seed doesn't want to see.

I see it the exact same way.   


CMJ was just saying that if you could see the future, and NT was guaranteed to either be a 1-&-done in the NCAA's OR win the NIT, he would choose the NIT route (as would I).
But, since there's no way to see the future, he (and I, and everyone else) would rather get the NCAA Tournament bid & see what happens.
The discussion morphed some when Matt from A700 said he'd rather take a CBI bid instead of a NIT bid (in the event we don't get into the NCAAT.
I don't think anyone here is hoping we DON'T make the NCAAT because it might be too difficult to win, and would rather play the NIT because it would be a little easier.

[NT80]

2 hours ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

During that same stretch, we've won the CBI Championship, the NIT Championship, and a NCAA Tourney game during post season play. 

Basketball people recognize us as a very good team.

But yet they don't.   

I have heard only one (1) ESPN broadcaster this season (paid basketball people) make reference to our NIT Championship. 

Some said we participated in it last year, but no other comments on winning the Whole Tournament only one and a half seasons ago.

[kingwoodgreen]

14 hours ago, CMJ said:

The NIT isn't anything close to being the HOD Bowl.  I don't think people realize how tough it even is to get into the NIT.  There are over 350 D1 schools.  You basically have to be in the top quarter to make it into either tournmnent.

 

There are like 40 Bowl games...over 60% the schools that play DI football make one.

 

Making the NIT is like...making the Gator Bowl or something.  If somehow we ended up in the Gator Bowl that'd be the biggest deal the football team had ever accomplished.

Could I just say I am happy with just the fact we are having this conversation 🙃

[BigWillie]

On 3/10/2025 at 3:39 PM, greenminer said:

Can you link to a good example from another conference bracket? I want to see what you're thinking.

Not sure if they have one for any college. I was just thinking in general, like the NBA has. https://www.nba.com/standings

[BigWillie]

2 hours ago, CMJ said:

I don't think anyone WANTS the NIT per se.  The only debate was if it'd be better to be one and done in the NCAAs vs a deep run to the semis of the NIT and/or win it.  Having experienced both situations as a fan, I know which I preferred (NIT title).

 

Since I don't know the future, anyone with a brain would rather take a chance at the NCAA Tournament because a Sweet 16 type of run (which given our defensive style of play would frustrate many/most schools and is a possibility) would be the biggest thing to happen to our athletic program since the Don January Golf National Championships.

 

We can totally win the AAC this weekend.  Should we do so, we're exactly the kind of squad your average 5 seed doesn't want to see.

Yes, exactly! No one is saying we don't want a NCAAT spot, but the path to that is much tougher, so people look at both possibilities. 

So, TLDR; 

1. NCAAT bid

2. NIT deep run

Both are perfectly ok to me.

[NT80]

2 hours ago, BigWillie said:

Yes, exactly! No one is saying we don't want a NCAAT spot, but the path to that is much tougher, so people look at both possibilities. 

So, TLDR; 

1. NCAAT bid

2. NIT deep run

Both are perfectly ok to me.

What gets more mileage with growing our fanbase....one distant game in the NCAAT, or 2+ games in the NIT including a home game?

[Big Z]

3 minutes ago, NT80 said:

What gets more mileage with growing our fanbase....one distant game in the NCAAT, or 2+ games in the NIT including a home game?

The Big Dance 

[MeanGreenGlory]

On 3/10/2025 at 1:32 PM, Matt from A700 said:

I honestly would not be surprised if we declined an NIT invitation. Three straight years... everyone involved with UNT is tired of the NIT instead of NCAAT. I could actually see them opting for the CBI to gift the team a quick week in Florida over the AD potentially having to market three more home games.

The AD markets home games?

[MeanGreenTexan]

17 hours ago, NT80 said:

But yet they don't.   

I have heard only one (1) ESPN broadcaster this season (paid basketball people) make reference to our NIT Championship. 

Some said we participated in it last year, but no other comments on winning the Whole Tournament only one and a half seasons ago.

I've seen multiple articles posted here and on various social medias that have NT listed as a possible "March Madness Cinderella" team like the one below.     If these folks don't know about us... why/how are we showing up on these lists?

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6180736/2025/03/06/march-madness-2025-ncaa-tournament-potential-cinderella-teams/

 

[NT80]

1 hour ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

  If these folks don't know about us... why/how are we showing up on these lists?

Our season record.

[NorthTexasWeLove]

UNT Basketball has to schedule better. Period. 

UNT Basketball has to have marketing support behind them. Period. 

Everything else is in place. Keep recruiting defensive Dawgs and keep playing intentional basketball, offensively. As I've said, I'd like to see Ross get an offensive minded asset coach with skins on the wall in here. 

 

To the subject of the thread name: 

Memphis v UAB in title game. Memphis wins. This feels like a "their year" type of season for them. 

We fall to UAB in the semis. Their personnel is more explosive than ours. Their guard play is more consistent. Their big is legit as he can score it, rebound it, and dish it. But hey, please go prove me wrong fellas. I will be rooting for you to, passionately. 

Edited 4 hours ago by NorthTexasWeLove

[Matt from A700]

23 hours ago, Green Lantern said:

One of the craziest takes I’ve read on this board.

Really? And I haven't even been here that long!

[Jason Howeth]

20 hours ago, NT80 said:

But yet they don't.   

I have heard only one (1) ESPN broadcaster this season (paid basketball people) make reference to our NIT Championship. 

Some said we participated in it last year, but no other comments on winning the Whole Tournament only one and a half seasons ago.

Yeah, but this is on the basketball program itself. Broadcasters can know the big names at big schools and big time players. But, when they walk into a UNT, or even a Memphis and VCU (as an example), the school is supposed to give the broadcasters all of the talking points that they want mentioned during the games. Those points include individual achievements about each player, stats, team stats, and recent accomplishments. If that point is included in the talking points sheet, then I'd agree with you, but I don't think it's a coincidence that the broadcasters fail to mention it except one who probably remembered it himself. 

[Green Lantern]

1 hour ago, Matt from A700 said:

Really? And I haven't even been here that long!

[MeanGreenTexan]

1 hour ago, NT80 said:

Our season record.

Certainly helps!
However, Montana for instance, has a better record than us, but I don't really see them bantered about.

I actually think it's more about THIS PARTICULAR STAT than anything else.   Notice another team that is constantly showing up on the same lists is just above us, and several other teams on these lists are also in the top 10.
Teams that play like we do give other teams fits.    Basketball people know who we are, and know how dangerous we can be.

 

[NT80]

19 minutes ago, Jason Howeth said:

Yeah, but this is on the basketball program itself. Broadcasters can know the big names at big schools and big time players. But, when they walk into a UNT, or even a Memphis and VCU (as an example), the school is supposed to give the broadcasters all of the talking points that they want mentioned during the games. Those points include individual achievements about each player, stats, team stats, and recent accomplishments. If that point is included in the talking points sheet, then I'd agree with you, but I don't think it's a coincidence that the broadcasters fail to mention it except one who probably remembered it himself. 

Yes, I agree with the UNT provided fact sheet is probably lacking critical information.  That wouldn’t surprise me. Whoever left off “2023 NIT Champs” needs demoted. 
 

But also it’s on the professional broadcasters to do their own homework on teams they cover.  
 

You want to provide your newly tuned in audience a reason to watch this game about to happen.   Most talk about our defense and up and coming Ross Hodge.  It’s doesn’t take 3 minutes to google a programs basketball history and see their postseason accomplishments. 

[UNTLifer]

15 minutes ago, NT80 said:

Yes, I agree with the UNT provided fact sheet is probably lacking critical information.  That wouldn’t surprise me. Whoever left off “2023 NIT Champs” needs demoted. 
 

But also it’s on the professional broadcasters to do their own homework on teams they cover.  
 

You want to provide your newly tuned in audience a reason to watch this game about to happen.   Most talk about our defense and up and coming Ross Hodge.  It’s doesn’t take 3 minutes to google a programs basketball history and see their postseason accomplishments. 

I just scanned the game notes from the Temple game.  Not one mention of upsetting  Purdue a couple of years ago in the NCAA's or of winning the NIT.

[TIgreen01]

2 hours ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

UNT Basketball has to schedule better. Period. 

I'm not sure I agree.  Our OOC was pretty solid this season.  Our home schedule was pretty crap might be a valid gripe.  Either way, we had teams on our schedule that are in the wheelhouse of who we need to be scheduling and beating.  Good to very good mid-major programs, with a couple of P5 programs mixed in.  If we go 2-1 against the trio of Utah St, McNeese and High Point we are in the discussion for an at large bid.  Instead we went 0-3. 

The scheduling is not the problem, imo, unless you want to say we need to get more of those games at home instead of at neutral site tournaments.

[NorthTexasWeLove]

14 minutes ago, TIgreen01 said:

I'm not sure I agree.  Our OOC was pretty solid this season.  Our home schedule was pretty crap might be a valid gripe.  Either way, we had teams on our schedule that are in the wheelhouse of who we need to be scheduling and beating.  Good to very good mid-major programs, with a couple of P5 programs mixed in.  If we go 2-1 against the trio of Utah St, McNeese and High Point we are in the discussion for an at large bid.  Instead we went 0-3. 

The scheduling is not the problem, imo, unless you want to say we need to get more of those games at home instead of at neutral site tournaments.

Scheduling games @ High Point and @ Mcneese is poor scheduling. Those are very good low major programs. If we want to play those teams then they can come to Denton. If they don't agree then don't play them.

 

Not sure why the eyeroll. It's pretty straight forward scheduling methodology. 2-4 Home and home with mid majors every year. Get a couple doodoo squads in Denton each year. Beg, borrow, and steal for a H/H with 1 high major. Try and get into 1 competitive tournament every year (3 games) and only schedule low majors as home games (1 or 2). That's 10-12 OOC games and we don't go slip on a random banana peel in central North Carolina. 

Edited 1 hour ago by NorthTexasWeLove