If we win out reg season we are in?

[Ross Hodgeson]

This guy just posted that he thinks if we win out we will be guaranteed a spot in the NCAA.  He says if we have one loss we won't.   Is he talking that we just have to win out the rest of the regular season games to be assured a NCAA bid? 

[UNTLifer]

Who is "this guy"?

[CMJ]

I mean if we win out till the conference final and lose to Memphis in a close game, we would definitely be looked at - but the lack of quality wins would hurt us a lot.  I think it'd be 50/50.

[Shark84]

Let's just worry about beating FAU on Sunday. GMG

[UNTLifer]

40 minutes ago, Shark84 said:

Let's just worry about beating FAU on Sunday. GMG

[NorthTexasWeLove]

22 hours ago, CMJ said:

I mean if we win out till the conference final and lose to Memphis in a close game, we would definitely be looked at - but the lack of quality wins would hurt us a lot.  I think it'd be 50/50.

No way we'd be 50/50. If we win out and get to the conf finals and lose we will enter selection process at 28-5 reg season conf champs and will certainly be NET t25. 0% chance we are left out. 

[MeanGreenTexan]

3 hours ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

No way we'd be 50/50. If we win out and get to the conf finals and lose we will enter selection process at 28-5 reg season conf champs and will certainly be NET t25. 0% chance we are left out. 

I wouldn't say 0% chance, but yeah, in that scenario (UNT loses to Memphis in AAC Final) there would be too much going for us at that time, especially if McNeese (1st in Southland/#66Kenpom), UTSt (2nd in MWC/#43Kenpom) also make deep runs in their tournaments &/or win them.   It would really help if High Point wins the Big South regular season &/or tournament (currently 2nd).

Maybe more like a 10% chance we get left out, but if so, I guarantee we'd be in the "1st 4 out".

[97and03]

On 1/23/2025 at 6:07 PM, Ross Hodgeson said:

This guy just posted that he thinks if we win out we will be guaranteed a spot in the NCAA.  He says if we have one loss we won't.   Is he talking that we just have to win out the rest of the regular season games to be assured a NCAA bid? 

[GMG_Dallas]

1 hour ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

I wouldn't say 0% chance, but yeah, in that scenario (UNT loses to Memphis in AAC Final) there would be too much going for us at that time, especially if McNeese (1st in Southland/#66Kenpom), UTSt (2nd in MWC/#43Kenpom) also make deep runs in their tournaments &/or win them.   It would really help if High Point wins the Big South regular season &/or tournament (currently 2nd).

Maybe more like a 10% chance we get left out, but if so, I guarantee we'd be in the "1st 4 out".

Don't forget Minnesota and Oregon State in that list of teams we need to make a run. Minnesota has had a couple close losses but they're getting healthy and getting into a rhythm. They've got back-to-back Quad 1 wins and jumped up 30+ points in NET to being 104. Going off previous years, Quad 1 loses rarely drop your NET ranking but the wins carry pretty good weight. If they can get in the top 75, they become a Quad 1 for us. As for Oregon State, they beat Gonzaga and have a few more big games coming up. Those two wins are looking better as the season progresses.

[Cougar King]

No. The AAC is a 1-bid league UNLESS someone wins the AAC tournament and Memphis loses the championship.

Edited Saturday at 09:18 PM by Cougar King

[NorthTexasWeLove]

24 minutes ago, Cougar King said:

No. The AAC is a 1-bid league UNLESS someone wins the AAC tournament and Memphis loses the championship.

No. You're wrong. You're wrong on a few different levels. 

1st level is that you're putting too much stock in Memphis... they're on pace to be 25-6. If they lose in our tourney, you're suggesting that Memphis will be a 7 loss mid major at large? Maybe. But that's not guaranteed, at all. 

Next, you're putting a potential 28-5 team, per the scenario given, not in the field. Maybe, but highly doubtful. 

It's OK for the AAC to be competitive just because uh isn't in it anymore. 

[GMG_Dallas]

Minnesota with a 3rd straight Quad 1 win. Our win in their house is looking better every game.

1 hour ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

No. You're wrong. You're wrong on a few different levels. 

1st level is that you're putting too much stock in Memphis... they're on pace to be 25-6. If they lose in our tourney, you're suggesting that Memphis will be a 7 loss mid major at large? Maybe. But that's not guaranteed, at all. 

Next, you're putting a potential 28-5 team, per the scenario given, not in the field. Maybe, but highly doubtful. 

It's OK for the AAC to be competitive just because uh isn't in it anymore. 

Baring a collapse, Memphis is all but guaranteed a spot. Prior to their loss at Temple, some bracket experts had them as a 4 seed. They're 5-2 in Quad 1 games and 10-3 in Quad 1 and 2 with wins against Missouri, UConn, Michigan State, Clemson, Ole Miss, all of which are in the top 35 of NET. The resume is too strong unless they pretty much lose out.

Cougar guy is wrong, though. Independent bracket experts with good track records of guessing the field still have UNT as being in contention. It's a longshot but not dead. 

[NorthTexasWeLove]

42 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Minnesota with a 3rd straight Quad 1 win. Our win in their house is looking better every game.

Baring a collapse, Memphis is all but guaranteed a spot. Prior to their loss at Temple, some bracket experts had them as a 4 seed. They're 5-2 in Quad 1 games and 10-3 in Quad 1 and 2 with wins against Missouri, UConn, Michigan State, Clemson, Ole Miss, all of which are in the top 35 of NET. The resume is too strong unless they pretty much lose out.

Cougar guy is wrong, though. Independent bracket experts with good track records of guessing the field still have UNT as being in contention. It's a longshot but not dead. 

I wouldn't put it past Penny Hardaway getting that group to double digit losses come selection Sunday. 

[THOR]

minnesota beat #15 Oregon tonight

[GMG_Dallas]

8 minutes ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

I wouldn't put it past Penny Hardaway getting that group to double digit losses come selection Sunday. 

I certainly would call that a collapse. They could probably get another 3-4 losses without winning the AAC tourney and be ok. 

[greenminer]

Count me in as someone who thinks Memphis is about as lock of an at-large as can be.  Their Q1 record, time spent int he T25....all very favorable.

I see some analysis with them as a 5 seed right now, closer to 4 than a 6.  The rest of the season is just them playing for better seeding, not bid consideration.

[NorthTexasWeLove]

2 minutes ago, greenminer said:

Count me in as someone who thinks Memphis is about as lock of an at-large as can be.  Their Q1 record, time spent int he T25....all very favorable.

I see some analysis with them as a 5 seed right now, closer to 4 than a 6.  The rest of the season is just them playing for better seeding, not bid consideration.

Yeah. They made a statement today. Was honestly hoping to see UAB clip them today. 

[ntmeangreen11]

If we win out the regular season and lose in the final I would bet my house on us being left out. I'm not saying our resume is not worthy but we absolutely would get passed over for a middling P4 team much less a bubble team. 

[Tommy Gadberry]

13 minutes ago, ntmeangreen11 said:

If we win out the regular season and lose in the final I would bet my house on us being left out. I'm not saying our resume is not worthy but we absolutely would get passed over for a middling P4 team much less a bubble team. 

Negative but I had a similar thought.

[MrAlien]

First off, there is still a lot of season to play.

I am not sure an at large bid would happen to a team with out any Q1 wins, even to be considered as a bubble team they would need to get some votes in the top 25 polls first.  Most of the projected brackets I have seen have UNT outside looking in, with about 8-10 teams in front, so who would they pull out?  Things in other conferences would have to work out just right for UNT to get in.

Is the AAC a two bid conference?  I have slowly watched Memphis drop from a 4-5 seed a couple weeks ago to a 8-9 seed in several weekly bracket projections.  All of those assume Memphis is the winner of the conference championship and automatically qualify.  But what if they are not?  What if they loose in the semifinals? 

[Tommy Gadberry]

We have 11 games remaining in the season.  To think we could go undefeated for that long a stretch and not get in?  Is that possible?

[CMJ]

23 minutes ago, Tommy Gadberry said:

We have 11 games remaining in the season.  To think we could go undefeated for that long a stretch and not get in?  Is that possible?

[MrAlien]

13 hours ago, Tommy Gadberry said:

We have 11 games remaining in the season.  To think we could go undefeated for that long a stretch and not get in?  Is that possible?

But none of those remaining games are Q1 games, and only 3 of those games look like they will be Q2 away games.