Memphis, Tulane, USF Turn Down 2PAC....Staying in AAC

[C Rod]

32 minutes ago, ColoradoEagle said:

It all depends on what ESPN wants. If UNLV goes to the Pac, it's not a terrible idea to pick up UNM/Wyoming, AFA, and Nevada. If possible, balance it out with JMU in the East. Will ESPN pay at least half shares for each is the question. Taking 3 from the MWC would mean no one has to pay any exit fees to the MWC, because the conference would be dissolved by departing members.

Think this one through all the way, my friend. What do you think the PAC 8 will then do will their $110M+ money that's freed up? They'll immediately pick up the phone and call Memphis, Tulane, USF, and UTSA and offer to cover their AAC exit fees. As we saw from yesterday's circus, everyone is "committed" until they're not. What you're proposing is actually a terrible idea. We need the MWC to survive.

Edited September 24 by C Rod

[ColoradoEagle]

15 minutes ago, C Rod said:

Think this one through all the way, my friend. What do you think the PAC 8 will then do will their $110M+ money that's freed up? They'll immediately pick up the phone and call Memphis, Tulane, USF, and UTSA and offer to cover their AAC exit fees. As we saw from yesterday's circus, everyone is "committed" until they're not. What you're proposing is actually a terrible idea. We need the MWC to survive.

The last thing the new Pac needs is more mouths to feed. The media deal they're looking for is $10-15m per school. Does their media partner (who's obviously not ESPN) have the ability and desire to kick in $40-60m annually for those four? I have my doubts.

Edited September 24 by ColoradoEagle

[untjim1995]

My guess is that UNLV will accept this deal and go to the Pac to get to 8 for football and 9 for hoops, with Gonzaga also joining. That will leave the MWC with Hawaii, San Jose State, Wyoming, AFA, Nevada, and UNM. If I'm the MWC, I quickly add UTEP and NMSU and just buy time to see what else they can do in the years ahead. And CUSA will just add in some more FCS teams out East to their league.

[Matt]

 

[C Rod]

3 minutes ago, ColoradoEagle said:

The last thing the new Pac needs is more mouths to feed. The media deal they're looking for is $10-15m per school. Does their media partner (who's obviously not ESPN) have the ability and desire to kick in $40-60m annually for those four? I have my doubts.

Considering the new additional markets would be Las Vegas, Memphis, New Orleans, San Antonio, and Tampa, I doubt the PAC would have any trouble commanding the higher-end of the $10-15M per school distribution. The new PAC-12 would be set with a solid 12 teams that are clearly the "best of the rest."

[ColoradoEagle]

1 minute ago, C Rod said:

Considering the new additional markets would be Las Vegas, Memphis, New Orleans, San Antonio, and Tampa, I doubt the PAC would have any trouble commanding the higher-end of the $10-15M per school distribution. The new PAC-12 would be set with a solid 12 teams that are clearly the "best of the rest."

[C Rod]

4 minutes ago, untjim1995 said:

If I'm the MWC, I quickly add UTEP and NMSU and just buy time to see what else they can do in the years ahead.

This is exactly what we should all be hoping for. 

[C Rod]

4 minutes ago, ColoradoEagle said:

[El Paso Eagle]

35 minutes ago, C Rod said:

I don't think that would be a smart idea. The MWC is now hanging on by a thread and is very close to dissolution. If it collapses, the PAC owes them nothing and could then use the money to lure Memphis, Tulane, USF, and UTSA by covering their $27.5M AAC exit fees. 

https://sports.yahoo.com/is-mwc-dissolution-coming-unlv-now-holds-keys-to-future-in-fight-between-pac-12-and-mountain-west-125447778.html

There seems to be some debate on this. There are reports saying that based on their bylaws, once you announce you are leaving, you no longer have a vote.

[Green Otaku]

19 minutes ago, El Paso Eagle said:

There seems to be some debate on this. There are reports saying that based on their bylaws, once you announce you are leaving, you no longer have a vote.

This is true, otherwise the 8 schools that left the Pac12  (10 at the time) would have dissolved the conference and distributed the assets evenly. Once you announce you are leaving you don't get a vote.

[ColoradoEagle]

19 minutes ago, C Rod said:

You're asserting that UTSA, for example, could only muster a half share in the AAC and yesterday was told the Pac would only kick in 10% of their exit fee, but today the Pac would be willing to fund their entire exit and their value would magically rise from $3.5m to $15m in a TV contract?

I get it. When you're looking at realignment, everything looks like a stroke of genius move that would maximize contracts, but that just isn't the real world. The AAC has way more metro markets than the Pac does, but we're not renegotiating the contract with ESPN up to $10-15m per school.

I honestly think that number is pie in the sky even for the Pac, but apparently they have someone (maybe?) willing to back them in that range, and I doubt it's based on 12 schools from the leaks we've seen. My money is on they have interest, probably from CBS or Apple, but this move is more to jettison the bottom quarter of the league than it is to attain a huge payday.

[El Paso Eagle]

20 minutes ago, Green Otaku said:

This is true, otherwise the 8 schools that left the Pac12  (10 at the time) would have dissolved the conference and distributed the assets evenly. Once you announce you are leaving you don't get a vote.

This story references the section. It seems to have done it they would have needed to do the back door way they got out of the WAC by getting together in agreeing to dissolve it before they announced they were leaving.

 

 

https://nevadasportsnet.com/features/murrays-mailbag/murrays-mailbag-where-does-the-pac-12-turn-after-getting-rebuffed-by-aac-schools

[Green Otaku]

2 minutes ago, El Paso Eagle said:

This story references the section. It seems to have done it they would have needed to do the back door way they got out of the WAC by getting together in agreeing to dissolve it before they announced they were leaving.

 

 

https://nevadasportsnet.com/features/murrays-mailbag/murrays-mailbag-where-does-the-pac-12-turn-after-getting-rebuffed-by-aac-schools

I'm not a lawyer, but something like that seems ripe for a lawsuit. Colluding behind the other team's backs and doing real monetary harm to those left out sounds like something you could see being a court case. All you would need is access to their emails and messages by lawyers and you would be able to prove they did this intentionally.

[C Rod]

4 minutes ago, ColoradoEagle said:

You're asserting that UTSA, for example, could only muster a half share in the AAC and yesterday was told the Pac would only kick in 10% of their exit fee, but today the Pac would be willing to fund their entire exit and their value would magically rise from $3.5m to $15m in a TV contract?

I get it. When you're looking at realignment, everything looks like a stroke of genius move that would maximize contracts, but that just isn't the real world. The AAC has way more metro markets than the Pac does, but we're not renegotiating the contract with ESPN up to $10-15m per school.

I honestly think that number is pie in the sky even for the Pac, but apparently they have someone (maybe?) willing to back them in that range, and I doubt it's based on 12 schools from the leaks we've seen. My money is on they have interest, probably from CBS or Apple, but this move is more to jettison the bottom quarter of the league than it is to attain a huge payday.

If the MWC folds, the PAC doesn't have to pay a dime. The PAC would then take the allotted $110M+ funds that were designated for the MWC schools and use those funds to pay the AAC exit fees for Memphis, Tulane, USF, and UTSA. Why? Because these schools are at the top of their wishlist and help maximize the next TV deal due to their brands and TV market size.

The networks interested in the new PAC are The CW (national broadcast), TNT (cable), and Amazon/Apple (streaming).

The CW is already involved with the PAC

TNT is expanding into college football after losing their longstanding NBA TV deal

The last thing we need to do is raid the MWC so it folds on itself.

Regarding your idea: 

Quote

If UNLV goes to the Pac, it's not a terrible idea to pick up UNM/Wyoming, AFA, and Nevada. If possible, balance it out with JMU in the East. 

This would grow the AAC to an 18 team football conference. If you're concerned about 12 teams in the PAC being too many mouths to feed, how can you justify 18 teams in the AAC?

AF, Nevada, and UNM/Wyoming won't jump to the AAC for half-share distribution because they'll make less than what they're currently making now in the MWC. Add in the additional travel costs and it makes even less financial sense for them to jump conferences at half-share distribution. 

[El Paso Eagle]

34 minutes ago, Green Otaku said:

I'm not a lawyer, but something like that seems ripe for a lawsuit. Colluding behind the other team's backs and doing real monetary harm to those left out sounds like something you could see being a court case. All you would need is access to their emails and messages by lawyers and you would be able to prove they did this intentionally.

Agree. But remember, many of these same teams did the same thing when they were in the WAC.

[Green Otaku]

1 hour ago, El Paso Eagle said:

Agree. But remember, many of these same teams did the same thing when they were in the WAC.

Sure, but they didn't try to dissolve the WAC while doing so. I'm assuming the also went by the bylaws and left with whatever penalties/revenue forfeiture they had to do.

[ColoradoEagle]

3 hours ago, C Rod said:

The last thing we need to do is raid the MWC so it folds on itself.

Regarding your idea: 

This would grow the AAC to an 18 team football conference. If you're concerned about 12 teams in the PAC being too many mouths to feed, how can you justify 18 teams in the AAC?

AF, Nevada, and UNM/Wyoming won't jump to the AAC for half-share distribution because they'll make less than what they're currently making now in the MWC. Add in the additional travel costs and it makes even less financial sense for them to jump conferences at half-share distribution. 

I agree to disagree on the MWC folding. Having one less conference to compete with for the playoffs, and one less avenue for FCS to continue moving up to FBS seems like a good thing in the long run.

12 is too many for the Pac, because they're trying to maximize value. I know you disagree, but I don't see their media partner wanting to add another 50% yearly just to add four from the AAC. Much more likely is AAC/ESPN working on something that works for the 3-4 remaining MWC schools not named SJSU. Just to be clear, I don't see any of these teams joining the AAC until 2027 or 2028.

And the MWC contract is almost up. If you think they're going to secure $5-6m per school for the leftovers of that conference plus whoever they can snatch from CUSA/FCS, you're nuts.

Edited September 24 by ColoradoEagle

[C Rod]

34 minutes ago, ColoradoEagle said:

I agree to disagree on the MWC folding. Having one less conference to compete with for the playoffs, and one less avenue for FCS to continue moving up to FBS seems like a good thing in the long run.

12 is too many for the Pac, because they're trying to maximize value. I know you disagree, but I don't see their media partner wanting to add another 50% yearly just to add four from the AAC. Much more likely is AAC/ESPN working on something that works for the 3-4 remaining MWC schools not named SJSU. Just to be clear, I don't see any of these teams joining the AAC until 2027 or 2028.

And the MWC contract is almost up. If you think they're going to secure $5-6m per school for the leftovers of that conference plus whoever they can snatch from CUSA/FCS, you're nuts.

Okay let's agree to disagree. But you did in fact say the following, which means you want to see these MWC teams join the AAC before 2027 or 2028 and the dissolution of the MWC:

Quote

If UNLV goes to the Pac, it's not a terrible idea to pick up UNM/Wyoming, AFA, and Nevada...Taking 3 from the MWC would mean no one has to pay any exit fees to the MWC, because the conference would be dissolved by departing members.

This was my whole point... now is not the time for the AAC to raid the MWC and force it's collapse as you allude to above.

[ColoradoEagle]

3 minutes ago, C Rod said:

Okay let's agree to disagree. But you did in fact say the following, which means you want to see these MWC teams join the AAC before 2027 or 2028 and the dissolution of the MWC:

This was my whole point... now is not the time for the AAC to raid the MWC and force it's collapse as you allude to above.

I'm not talking about being dissolved today. That's not going to happen. I'm talking about members agreeing to dissolve the conference once they've been paid in 2026. At that point there would be no exit fee, because it would literally just be SJSU left.

I think, at worst, there's a cash settlement with SJSU and/or whoever else may be left out.

[C Rod]

Here's a visual of exactly what we don't want to happen: 

 

[C Rod]

29 minutes ago, ColoradoEagle said:

I'm not talking about being dissolved today. That's not going to happen. I'm talking about members agreeing to dissolve the conference once they've been paid in 2026. At that point there would be no exit fee, because it would literally just be SJSU left.

I think, at worst, there's a cash settlement with SJSU and/or whoever else may be left out.

If UNLV leaves for the PAC, and AF leaves for the AAC, I don't expect the MWC to just sit on their hands for two years. Expansion is a top priority for survival.

Hawaii, SJSU, Wyoming, Nevada, New Mexico will need to add 3 schools quickly to meet the NCAA 8-team requirement and ensure they still have a conference to collect the PAC penalty fees after the lawsuits are settled.

It's widely discussed that UTEP and New Mexico State are next in line for MWC invites. The MWC would just need one more school after that. Flush with cash, MWC could easily put up the $5M FCS-to-FBS entrance fee to help Idaho or North Dakota State jump to FBS and become their 8th member. 

[NT80]

The PAC may have new ideas on expansion....

 

 

 

[Green Otaku]

I don't see any chance of Uconn leaving the BE. FB only I can see, but that doesn't really raise the profile of the PAC.

[NT80]

3 minutes ago, Green Otaku said:

I don't see any chance of Uconn leaving the BE. FB only I can see, but that doesn't really raise the profile of the PAC.

PAC is trying to find some cheap add-ons to finish their football membership.  Maybe adding Gonzaga is bait for UConn basketball later?   It's all probably an attempt to put pressure on UNLV to commit.

[Green Otaku]

This whole saga has been bizarre, it's why you don't air your dirty laundry in front of the whole country. Now the PAC looks incompetence, greedy, arrogant, stupid, and any other adjective.

With them suing the MWC about a deal they signed not even a year ago they are losing any goodwill people had for their teams. Their entire organization looks awful top to bottom, and should frankly be a warning to anyone wanting to be part of that conference.