Could the AAC Expand to 16 Teams? Commissioner Pernetti's Talks with Air Force Hint at a Bold Vision for the Future

C Rod · September 20

Today's YahooSports article from Ross Dellenger contains a sentence that jumped off the screen when I read it, and it's worth discussing.

Quote

"If he loses teams or not, commissioner Tim Pernetti may bring into the league Air Force, a school that he's been in serious negotiations with for more than a week."

Up to this point, I thought the discussions with Air Force were to replace a departing member like Memphis; however, from the quote above and how quickly he engaged with AF, Pernetti seems open to expanding the AAC beyond the current 14 football schools.

Does Pernetti have a vision for a 15 or 16-team AAC?

If the answer is yes, seeing how conferences typically like to keep things equal, a 16-team league seems more attractive, with eight teams in the East and eight in the West.

WEST: Air Force, Tulsa, UNT, UTSA, Rice, Tulane, Memphis, UAB

EAST: Army, Temple, Navy, Charlotte, ECU, USF, FAU, and a SunBelt school like Liberty, App State, or Georgia State with the Atlanta market?

Divisions like this would tighten the travel footprint for all sports, saving everyone money.

What do y'all think?

meangreenfaninno · September 20

I sort of like it!

C Rod · September 20

I'm sure some are thinking, but 16 members are too many mouths to feed, and there needs to be more TV dollars to distribute to new members.

Tim Pernetti has been vocal about bringing in additional revenue streams for conference members like private equity, league naming sponsorship deals, and corporate jersey patches like the NBA has implemented in recent years.

In the near future, I expect all CFB conferences to negotiate naming rights like we currently do with stadiums and arenas. The American Athletic Conference could soon become the American Airlines Conference. Memphis jerseys will soon have FEDEX logos on them and so on.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/40342941/sources-big-12-explores-selling-naming-rights-title-sponsor

NT80 · September 20

1 hour ago, C Rod said:

Today's YahooSports article from Ross Dellenger contains a sentence that jumped off the screen when I read it, and it's worth discussing.

Up to this point, I thought the discussions with Air Force were to replace a departing member like Memphis; however, from the quote above and how quickly he engaged with AF, Pernetti seems open to expanding the AAC beyond the current 14 football schools.

Does Pernetti have a vision for a 15 or 16-team AAC?

If the answer is yes, seeing how conferences typically like to keep things equal, a 16-team league seems more attractive, with eight teams in the East and eight in the West.

WEST: Air Force, Tulsa, UNT, UTSA, Rice, Tulane, Memphis, UAB

EAST: Army, Temple, Navy, Charlotte, ECU, USF, FAU, and a SunBelt school like Liberty, App State, or Georgia State with the Atlanta market?

Divisions like this would tighten the travel footprint for all sports, saving everyone money.

What do y'all think?

Conferences are dropping divisions. I think the SunBelt is the only one now with divisions.
It’s better to have a core of rivals or natural geographic conference opponents, then rotate thru the rest.

Green Otaku · September 20

I'd vote no on Liberty, I'd rather take JMU if we could get them. Their budget is already $68M a year.

C Rod · September 20

4 hours ago, NT80 said:

Conferences are dropping divisions. I think the SunBelt is the only one now with divisions.
It’s better to have a core of rivals or natural geographic conference opponents, then rotate thru the rest.

Yeah I remember Mike Aresco talking about this couple years back. I’m curious if this will last though as we enter into the era of super-conferences.

Edited September 21 by C Rod

Matt from A700 · September 21

What about UConn to help travel for Temple, Army, and Navy? They may not have a great football program but it's a brand name.

C Rod · September 21

30 minutes ago, Matt from A700 said:

What about UConn to help travel for Temple, Army, and Navy? They may not have a great football program but it's a brand name.

UConn was previously in the American and paid $17M to leave the AAC in 2020.

Matt from A700 · September 21

1 hour ago, C Rod said:

UConn was previously in the American and paid $17M to leave the AAC in 2020.

They ain't gettin' their money back.

wardly · September 21

Let's assume the PAC 6 snags Memphis, Tulane, and UTSA. Hopefully we could replace them with AFA and TSU. The AAC need not go wild and crazy adding teams that bring no media value to the conference. When the conference media rights contract is renegotiated we are going to take a hit. Plus someone must pay the MWC $17 million exit fee to get the AFA and any other team from their conference.

Green Otaku · September 22

On 9/20/2024 at 4:30 PM, Green Otaku said:

I'd vote no on Liberty, I'd rather take JMU if we could get them. Their budget is already $68M a year.

Like I said JMU would be my #1 choice if we could get them.

RBP79 · September 22

Question...why would the PAC come in to the third largest media market in TX for their TX foot print?

Matt from A700 · September 22

With this report that came out last Friday, talks with the AAC 4 might be stalling due to financial concerns. If we are able to retain Memphis, USF, Tulane, and UTSA for now, I'd still go after Air Force and even a James Madison. Perhaps some A-10 schools to add some Eastern non-football members and strengthen our league in basketball.

C Rod · September 22

17 hours ago, Green Otaku said:

Like I said JMU would be my #1 choice if we could get them.

You called it. After watching them put up 70 points and beat an undefeated UNC, I’m a believer.

C Rod · September 22

1 hour ago, Matt from A700 said:

With this report that came out last Friday, talks with the AAC 4 might be stalling due to financial concerns. If we are able to retain Memphis, USF, Tulane, and UTSA for now, I'd still go after Air Force and even a James Madison. Perhaps some A-10 schools to add some Eastern non-football members and strengthen our league in basketball.

I was just reading this article from McMurphy and thinking the same. Glad to see AF is behind UNLV and Utah St in priority.

PAC is already paying MWC $110+ million for 4 schools. Poaching two more would cost an additional $55+ million. Sheesh, $165+ million for 6 MWC schools is wild without a confirmed TV deal.

aprice · September 22

Its just a matter of time before memphis, tulane, and USF jump ship. I'm sure the AAC is aware. Whether they leave now or later, we should be expanding with the expectation of this happening.

I am extremely skeptical that UTSA is really on the radar of the newpac, but if so, we need to get TSU in here. I honestly hope they do take UTSA, if that means we can bring in TSU that is a net positive as far as im concerned.

Green Otaku · September 22

46 minutes ago, C Rod said:

You called it. After watching them put up 70 points and beat an undefeated UNC, I’m a believer.

They've got the biggest puzzle piece to success. A well run AD that puts the right pieces in place.

Matt from A700 · September 22

53 minutes ago, C Rod said:

I was just reading this article from McMurphy and thinking the same. Glad to see AF is behind UNLV and Utah St in priority.

PAC is already paying MWC $110+ million for 4 schools. Poaching two more would cost an additional $55+ million. Sheesh, $165+ million for 6 MWC schools is wild without a confirmed TV deal.

The last reported media deal for the Pac-8 before everyone jumped ship was $23 million per school. I'm not convinced these six teams, the AAC 4, and possibly UNLV and USU get you half of that, especialy when there'd me more schools to spread the payout between.

Would be hilarious for it to fall apart with a mediocre TV deal and the conference doesn't even reach the 8-team FBS threshold by July 2026. Then the AAC comes in to save the day sweeping up the PAC 6.

C Rod · September 22

No way UTSA has the money to pay a $27.5M exit fee. I can’t imagine any of the AAC school presidents willing to pay this much to leave for a conference without a TV deal in hand.

If the PAC offers to pay the exit fee for Memphis and Tulane, they’ll have to shell out $55M, and if they want Memphis, Tulane, USF, and UTSA it jumps to $110M.

A scenario where the PAC has to tuck its tail between its legs and invite only UNLV and Utah State and stay at 8 schools is looking more likely by the day.