Oregon State AD: Pac-12 will look to add new schools quickly

[SMU2006]

13 minutes ago, Old Denton said:

Don't get the UTSA angle, they're one-trick pony.  And that one trick is highly dependent on being able to keep their Magic Coach.  Tx State offers a lot more than UTSA.  The correct Central Time Zone play for the PAC is Memphis-Tulane-NT-TxSt

San Antonio >>>> San Marcos

They've also had more sustained success than Texas State.  UTSA has been among the best G5 football programs over the last 5-7 years.  Texas State has been good for a year (also tied to their magic coach who they will not be able to retain).

[C Rod]

In terms of PAC realignment, UNT and UTSA are better as a packaged deal than standalone schools. 

Where UNT lacks in recent football success, UTSA can point to their two conference championships. Where UTSA lacks in basketball success, UNT can point to our recent NIT championship and NCAA tournament win. Taking both schools together expands the TV market footprint to both South Texas and DFW. Separated by 4 hours of drive time, we're natural travel partners. Plus a healthy rivalry is brewing between the schools that has room to grow as long as conference realignment doesn't muck it up. 

[El Paso Eagle]

45 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

San Antonio >>>> San Marcos

They've also had more sustained success than Texas State.  UTSA has been among the best G5 football programs over the last 5-7 years.  Texas State has been good for a year (also tied to their magic coach who they will not be able to retain).

Curious that time frame goes hand in hand with how long Harris was their quarterback. Will be interesting to see how they Fair moving forward

[MeanGreen22]

1 hour ago, Old Denton said:

Don't get the UTSA angle, they're one-trick pony.  And that one trick is highly dependent on being able to keep their Magic Coach.  Tx State offers a lot more than UTSA.  The correct Central Time Zone play for the PAC is Memphis-Tulane-NT-TxSt

So far this season looks like they were more dependent on their Magic QB and not their Magic Coach

[C Rod]

19 hours ago, C Rod said:

Whether we like it or not, schools directly paying athletes via NIL is coming in the very near future and could happen as early as next fall.

And right on cue! 🤮

[Green Otaku]

4 hours ago, GMG_Dallas said:

CW is owned by Paramount. I don't know exact details of Paramount but it's a relatively new company that stems from a Viacom and CBS merger. CW has a streaming app and is looking for sports content. So is Amazon and so is Apple TV. There will be bids as the other major conferences are set for the next 5+ years. Also worth noting the current MWC deal is with CBS and Fox which has been at about $5 mil per school and expires when the new PAC is starts. This means they'll also be looking to fill some content and could buy a few games.

And understood on your stance on the PAC. Obviously it has to all make sense financially. My concern is the top AAC schools will leave to the ACC when that collapses. I doubt we'll be included with SMU already being there. Then we're in CUSA 2.0. This is an opportunity to get out before that happens. We'll see how this plays out. 

As far as the ACC I think that's why we have no time to lose, we need to make ourselves attractive by winning multiple AAC championships and even getting into the CFP so we make ourselves an undeniable candidate. I know SMU is there, but we need to make our resume so strong that we are a no-brainer pick.

[GMG_Dallas]

20 minutes ago, Green Otaku said:

As far as the ACC I think that's why we have no time to lose, we need to make ourselves attractive by winning multiple AAC championships and even getting into the CFP so we make ourselves an undeniable candidate. I know SMU is there, but we need to make our resume so strong that we are a no-brainer pick.

Sure. I just don't see it happening with us being in the same market but we should be doing everything possible to put some great runs together.

[SMU2006]

24 minutes ago, Green Otaku said:

As far as the ACC I think that's why we have no time to lose, we need to make ourselves attractive by winning multiple AAC championships and even getting into the CFP so we make ourselves an undeniable candidate. I know SMU is there, but we need to make our resume so strong that we are a no-brainer pick.

[Green Otaku]

1 minute ago, SMU2006 said:

It's a pretty easy goal, follow what Cincy did. If any future P4 realignment happens you make yourself the clear pick.

[C Rod]

ESPN published an inside look on how the PAC 12 pulled one over on an over-confident MWC. 

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/41260683/inside-look-pac-12-conference-rebuild-add-four-teams

Quote

WHEN TALKS ABOUT extending the scheduling agreement started a few weeks after media day, little progress was made. The Mountain West overestimated how vulnerable the Pac-12 was from a negotiating position and asked for more than the $14 million it received last year, with the Pac-12 countering with less than half that.

And it appears the final amount the PAC will pay the MWC is still to be determined...

Quote

The schools also knew to expect the Mountain West to attempt to withhold media rights distributions for departing schools over the next two years -- roughly $5 million per school, per year -- as it did when BYU, TCU and Utah all left in 2011. It's unclear what the total cost will be to the schools and Pac-12 to the Mountain West when the dust settles.

So potentially the PAC 12 will have to cover the additional $10M per school which would be $40M over the initial $110M+. Damn, we're talking potentially $150M+ in fees just for Boise St, SDSU, Fresno State, and Colorado State when everything is all said and done. 

[Rudy]

$mut will be our replacement in the AAC if were to go to the PAC....

[SMU2006]

3 minutes ago, Green Otaku said:

It's a pretty easy goal, follow what Cincy did. If any future P4 realignment happens you make yourself the clear pick.

A little inside baseball here but needless to say there is no realistic scenario where UNT is a member of the ACC.

Big 12 TV contract runs through 2029.  ACC will target Utah, Kansas, and Arizona.  There is a reason the ACC schedule model runs through 2030.  They are going shopping when the Big 12 has to go to market and renegotiate without Texas/OU.

[cousin oliver]

2 hours ago, Old Denton said:

Don't get the UTSA angle, they're one-trick pony.  And that one trick is highly dependent on being able to keep their Magic Coach.  Tx State offers a lot more than UTSA.  The correct Central Time Zone play for the PAC is Memphis-Tulane-NT-TxSt

And their other sports like basketball is not that good.

[Green Otaku]

6 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

A little inside baseball here but needless to say there is no realistic scenario where UNT is a member of the ACC.

Big 12 TV contract runs through 2029.  ACC will target Utah, Kansas, and Arizona.  There is a reason the ACC schedule model runs through 2030.  They are going shopping when the Big 12 has to go to market and renegotiate without Texas/OU.

No one thought UCF would be in the Big12 a decade ago. Like I said, you put yourself in the best spot to be the next team in line, win championships, clinch the CFP spot and that looks less like a pipe dream. Shoot for the top, there's no point in settling for less.

[GMG_Dallas]

18 minutes ago, C Rod said:

ESPN published an inside look on how the PAC 12 pulled one over on an over-confident MWC. 

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/41260683/inside-look-pac-12-conference-rebuild-add-four-teams

And it appears the final amount the PAC will pay the MWC is still to be determined...

So potentially the PAC 12 will have to cover the additional $10M per school which would be $40M over the initial $110M+. Damn, we're talking potentially $150M+ in fees just for Boise St, SDSU, Fresno State, and Colorado State when everything is all said and done. 

I find it hard to believe the PAC would commit to that amount of money in exit fees unless they have a pretty good idea on how much their media deal will be with those schools and that the deal is worth it. Same with any other schools they add.

[GMG_Dallas]

1 minute ago, Green Otaku said:

No one thought UCF would be in the Big12 a decade ago. Like I said, you put yourself in the best spot to be the next team in line, win championships, clinch the CFP spot and that looks less like a pipe dream. Shoot for the top, there's no point in settling for less.

UCF is the only BIG 12 market in Florida. If we were hours away from SMU then it could happen but we literally share the same market. Why in the world would the ACC want two schools in the same market? The PAC and BIG 10 are the only major conferences with no Texas market. We're not going to the BIG 10 so PAC it is.

[NT80]

2 hours ago, El Paso Eagle said:

Location and a large market with no local competition. 

I would say uT in Austin is their local competition.

[NT80]

1 hour ago, MeanGreen22 said:

So far this season looks like they were more dependent on their Magic QB and not their Magic Coach

Football at any level is always about the QB play.  

[C Rod]

6 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

I find it hard to believe the PAC would commit to that amount of money in exit fees unless they have a pretty good idea on how much their media deal will be with those schools and that the deal is worth it. Same with any other schools they add.

Same here. I'm sure the PAC paid TV network consultants top dollar to game out different scenarios and then assign and estimate value for each. I would love to peek behind the curtain to see those numbers. 

[Green Otaku]

7 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

UCF is the only BIG 12 market in Florida. If we were hours away from SMU then it could happen but we literally share the same market. Why in the world would the ACC want two schools in the same market? The PAC and BIG 10 are the only major conferences with no Texas market. We're not going to the BIG 10 so PAC it is.

True, it is a huge obstacle. Future movement is inevitable, we just have to be in the best spot possible and hope the chips can fall in our favor. I'd much rather be at the top, and seen as a Cincy/Houston/UCF when the next big wave hits.

[TIgreen01]

Just looking at the schools they have signed up, and now with Memphis looking like a target, the primary criteria seems to be brand recognition (which probably directly ties to TV contract negotiations).  No clue if they are also looking at how much each school will be able to fund NIL going forward.  To some extent, I'd expect the two to be correlated.  

Based on the above, I would venture that none of the Texas schools, outside of Rice, interest them.  From the AAC, I'd think their targets would be Memphis, Rice, Tulane and possibly Tulsa.  If they want to stay away from the privates, then it may just be Memphis.  For the life of me I can't understand what is keeping UNLV out of the discussion.  Seems like a natural fit, but I don't know enough about the history out there.  If I was betting, they add 2 to get to 8.  Enough to field the conference, then wait to see what happens with the ACC.  UTSA just had their students shutdown/reject an athletic fee increase.  I can't imagine that is something easily overlooked by school Presidents looking to predict future success and partnerships.  UNT needs someone to step up with some serious NIL money.  Maybe dangling this move as a possible carrot in front of the right donor would work like it did for SMU going to the ACC?

Edited September 17 by TIgreen01

[SMU2006]

10 minutes ago, Green Otaku said:

True, it is a huge obstacle. Future movement is inevitable, we just have to be in the best spot possible and hope the chips can fall in our favor. I'd much rather be at the top, and seen as a Cincy/Houston/UCF when the next big wave hits.

If the Big 12 is pillaged I could see a scenario where UNT gets in there.

[SMU2006]

2 minutes ago, TIgreen01 said:

Just looking at the schools they have signed up, and now with Memphis looking like a target, the primary criteria seems to be brand recognition.  No clue if they are also looking at how much each school will be able to fund NIL going forward.  To some extent, I'd expect the two to be correlated.  

Based on the above, I would venture that none of the Texas schools, outside of Rice, interest them.  From the AAC, I'd think their targets would be Memphis, Rice, Tulane and possibly Tulsa.  If they want to stay away from the privates, then it may just be Memphis.  For the life of me I can't understand what is keeping UNLV out of the discussion.  Seems like a natural fit, but I don't know enough about the history out there.  If I was betting, they add 2 to get to 8.  Enough to field the conference, then wait to see what happens with the ACC.  UTSA just had their students shutdown/reject an athletic fee increase.  I can't imagine that is something easily overlooked by school Presidents looking to predict future success and partnerships.  UNT needs someone to step up with some serious NIL money.  Maybe dangling this move as a possible carrot in front of the right donor would work like it did for SMU going to the ACC?

Tulsa and Rice are probably dropping football in the next ten years.  The PAC needs markets after they've secured the best MWC brands.  Memphis, Tulane, UNT, and UTSA are the obvious choices.  I'm sure they'd love to have UNLV but the political entanglements with UN-Reno are making that problematic.  I do think UNLV will eventually find their way to break free of their ties to UN-Reno but they might be too late if the PAC lures 4-5 schools from the AAC.

[TIgreen01]

6 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

Tulsa and Rice are probably dropping football in the next ten years.  The PAC needs markets after they've secured the best MWC brands.  Memphis, Tulane, UNT, and UTSA are the obvious choices.  I'm sure they'd love to have UNLV but the political entanglements with UN-Reno are making that problematic.  I do think UNLV will eventually find their way to break free of their ties to UN-Reno but they might be too late if the PAC lures 4-5 schools from the AAC.

Didn't know that about UNLV.  That was supposedly a problem with the Cal schools, but UCLA went anyways and they figured it out later.  Why would UNLV not try to do the same?  So, I'd expect them to try to add Memphis and UNLV and stand pat.  If not UNLV, then Memphis and Tulane is next.  

If their end goal is to actually get back to 12 teams then maybe they add some combo of Texas schools to get to 10.  Then, again, wait to see what happens with the ACC.  Either way, I don't see UNT or UTSA/TxSt being able to command $10M/year from any TV network, regardless of our location.  They'd be adding us for the sole purpose of being able to recruit DFW and Central Texas.  Do they care about that?  Maybe Memphis does?

[MeanGreen22]

There is a reason the MWC had the TV deal they had. And there is also a reason Oregon State and Wazzu was left in the dust. I don't see the Pac adding the schools they added + Memphis and Tulane getting a crazy package that will be too good to turn down.