Oregon State AD: Pac-12 will look to add new schools quickly

[SMU2006]

22 minutes ago, TIgreen01 said:

Didn't know that about UNLV.  That was supposedly a problem with the Cal schools, but UCLA went anyways and they figured it out later.  Why would UNLV not try to do the same?  So, I'd expect them to try to add Memphis and UNLV and stand pat.  If not UNLV, then Memphis and Tulane is next.  

If their end goal is to actually get back to 12 teams then maybe they add some combo of Texas schools to get to 10.  Then, again, wait to see what happens with the ACC.  Either way, I don't see UNT or UTSA/TxSt being able to command $10M/year from any TV network, regardless of our location.  They'd be adding us for the sole purpose of being able to recruit DFW and Central Texas.  Do they care about that?  Maybe Memphis does?

8 teams isn't going to be enough content for a media partner.  You have to get to 10 (minimum) but 12 would be ideal.  That's where the Texas schools come in with markets and travel partners for Memphis/Tulane.

[SMU2006]

23 minutes ago, MeanGreen22 said:

There is a reason the MWC had the TV deal they had. And there is also a reason Oregon State and Wazzu was left in the dust. I don't see the Pac adding the schools they added + Memphis and Tulane getting a crazy package that will be too good to turn down.

If they are able to secure Memphis, Tulane, and a few others it'll be a decent media package.  Content is still king and having the best G5 conference will have value in the marketplace.  What that looks like on a $/team basis that's anyone's guess.

[Coach Bill Lewis]

UTSA brings a great market to the equation and adding Texas State means they can do Thursday and Saturday trips for games.  Plus they get a great rivalry between these two programs.   San Antonio's airport is about the same as DFW.

[wardly]

6 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

If they are able to secure Memphis, Tulane, and a few others it'll be a decent media package.  Content is still king and having the best G5 conference will have value in the marketplace.  What that looks like on a $/team basis that's anyone's guess.

They need at least 10 teams for scheduling purposes as with only 8 trying to schedule 5 non conference is a non starter.

[Green Otaku]

The other part of this we aren't really thinking about is, assuming ESPN isn't bidding for this new PAC conference, what are they doing on their end? Are they really going to let Memphis and Tulane walk away if they get an attractive offer from the PAC? If Pernetti comes to ESPN and says,"We are going to lose two of our top brands, what can you offer?" will ESPN listen?

[SMU2006]

2 minutes ago, Green Otaku said:

The other part of this we aren't really thinking about is, assuming ESPN isn't bidding for this new PAC conference, what are they doing on their end? Are they really going to let Memphis and Tulane walk away if they get an attractive offer from the PAC? If Pernetti comes to ESPN and says,"We are going to lose two of our top brands, what can you offer?" will ESPN listen?

They'll do the same thing they did when the AAC lost teams to the Big 12.  Go grab schools from another ESPN property (ex. Sun Belt/MAC)

[Green Otaku]

3 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

They'll do the same thing they did when the AAC lost teams to the Big 12.  Go grab schools from another ESPN property (ex. Sun Belt/MAC)

That's what I'm saying, ESPN didn't lose inventory with those moves. Assuming they aren't bidding for this new conference this would be different.

[keith]

On 9/14/2024 at 8:08 PM, NT80 said:

Oregon State had their own embarrassing loss today....losing 49-14 against in-state rival Oregon, who barely beat Idaho to start their season.

Oregon State was playing #9 Oregon.  We were playing #73 Texas Tech.  Why the campaign to rationalize what we all saw on the field?

[SMU2006]

8 minutes ago, Green Otaku said:

That's what I'm saying, ESPN didn't lose inventory with those moves. Assuming they aren't bidding for this new conference this would be different.

Who is to say they won't be a bidder?  I'm sure they'll want to kick the tires.

My point is the value will be absorbed elsewhere.  If they are moving puzzle pieces to bid on the PAC then they'll be fine brokering a deal to assist Tulane/Memphis.  Even if they don't I could see a streamer like Apple (in tandem with a linear distributor) having interest in the PAC.

[UNTLifer]

22 minutes ago, Coach Bill Lewis said:

  San Antonio's airport is about the same as DFW.

Stay off the moonshine Bill.

[VideoEagle]

36 minutes ago, MeanGreen22 said:

There is a reason the MWC had the TV deal they had. And there is also a reason Oregon State and Wazzu was left in the dust. I don't see the Pac adding the schools they added + Memphis and Tulane getting a crazy package that will be too good to turn down.

This is the reason I'm skeptical about this whole deal. After UCLA and USC left, the Pac-10 brought in lots of consultants who told them exactly what they wanted to hear - they were worth $X to media partners. It turned out those consultants were wrong, so 8 of the 10 left. 

Now, the Pac-2 have brought in a lot of consultants who are telling them, according to rumor, they can be worth 75% of what the Pac-10 actually was offered. Of course, the Pac-2 seem to be glossing over the fact a major portion of the dollars from that Pac-10 deal were incentives based on increasing the subscribers to Prime and AppleTV. Never the less, it appears to be the same pitch - trust us because the consultants say so.

Of course, I could be wrong. I didn’t think the Big XII would get the deal they got. So, maybe the consultants are correct this time.                      

A part of me still thinks in the end it will end up a merger between the Pac-2 and the MWC under the name Pac-x so everyone can divide up that pool of money the departing 10 left behind!

 

 

[SMU2006]

7 minutes ago, VideoEagle said:

This is the reason I'm skeptical about this whole deal. After UCLA and USC left, the Pac-10 brought in lots of consultants who told them exactly what they wanted to hear - they were worth $X to media partners. It turned out those consultants were wrong, so 8 of the 10 left. 

Now, the Pac-2 have brought in a lot of consultants who are telling them, according to rumor, they can be worth 75% of what the Pac-10 actually was offered. Of course, the Pac-2 seem to be glossing over the fact a major portion of the dollars from that Pac-10 deal were incentives based on increasing the subscribers to Prime and AppleTV. Never the less, it appears to be the same pitch - trust us because the consultants say so.

Of course, I could be wrong. I didn’t think the Big XII would get the deal they got. So, maybe the consultants are correct this time.                      

A part of me still thinks in the end it will end up a merger between the Pac-2 and the MWC under the name Pac-x so everyone can divide up that pool of money the departing 10 left behind!

 

 

The PAC-12 imploded because USC/UCLA knew they had a golden ticket to the Big 10 and shot down expansion in the wake of Texas/OU to the SEC.  The PAC could've had TCU, Texas Tech, OK State, and Kansas.  They could've killed the Big 12 but the PAC commish foolishly trusted USC/UCLA.  Further, their media deal was set to expire with no penalties for leaving the conference.  Not entirely Kliavkoff's fault but still absolutely insane.

 

There are valuable properties on the west coast.  The PAC is consolidating what they can with respect to brands but now they need markets.  They know this.  MWC/AAC know this.  Just a matter if they can make the money work.

[SMU2006]

 

[NM Green]

Good for Pernetti. Go fight to keep Memphis. I like a fighting Commish even if his odds aren’t great. Memphis holds all the cards here.

I think Memphis on the west coast seems off to me. They rule the roost in the AAC and know the eyeballs are in the east. Pernetti can remind them of their powerful position and ultimate play to the ACC and Big 12 when those leagues start shaking. 

MG will have to take charge and elevate wherever we go or stay and whoever our conference mates are. Good for Memphis outing themselves in this position. It’s been a good body of work for them. 

GMG

[Green Otaku]

1 hour ago, SMU2006 said:

Who is to say they won't be a bidder?  I'm sure they'll want to kick the tires.

My point is the value will be absorbed elsewhere.  If they are moving puzzle pieces to bid on the PAC then they'll be fine brokering a deal to assist Tulane/Memphis.  Even if they don't I could see a streamer like Apple (in tandem with a linear distributor) having interest in the PAC.

Possible, I just think if they thought they were worth paying for they would have brought them into the Big12. If they are at a reduced rate maybe that gives them interest. With AZ, ASU, BYU, CO, Utah, Cal, and Stanford as ESPN late night options they just seem like they are fairly covered.

[SMU2006]

25 minutes ago, Green Otaku said:

Possible, I just think if they thought they were worth paying for they would have brought them into the Big12. If they are at a reduced rate maybe that gives them interest. With AZ, ASU, BYU, CO, Utah, Cal, and Stanford as ESPN late night options they just seem like they are fairly covered.

A lot of these matchups are going to be offered as a digital subscription package (ESPN+ or something similar) so game windows or overlapping content isn't really an issue anymore.

[Rudy]

1 hour ago, Coach Bill Lewis said:

San Antonio's airport is about the same as DFW.

Same how?  In the same state?

 

[meanrob]

15 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

A lot of these matchups are going to be offered as a digital subscription package (ESPN+ or something similar) so game windows or overlapping content isn't really an issue anymore.

So someone is going to pony up 10+ million per team to stream a late night UTSA vs Fresno State game. I’ll believe it when I see it and after I read the small print. 

[SMU2006]

13 minutes ago, meanrob said:

So someone is going to pony up 10+ million per team to stream a late night UTSA vs Fresno State game. I’ll believe it when I see it and after I read the small print. 

What do you think the next AAC contract is going to look like?

[SMU2006]

 

[meanrob]

1 minute ago, SMU2006 said:

What do you think the next AAC contract is going to look like?

Depending on the teams, probably less than we are getting now. 
 

What do you think the PAC looks like after they burn through that money and OSU and WSU are full on G5 teams? Ever been to Pullman or Corvallis when they play a non name team?  Tell me what the difference is between 8-4 in either conference? I’ll tell you, zero. Both go to lower bowl games. 

If they make a deal we can’t refuse, so be it. Otherwise it’s a short-sighted option. 
 

You guys moved “up” in conferences several times and it didn’t do shit for you. Did nothing for attendance or tv, you were a .500 at best program. Sonny Dykes changed your fortunes, not moving conferences.

 

[SMU2006]

16 minutes ago, meanrob said:

Depending on the teams, probably less than we are getting now. 
 

What do you think the PAC looks like after they burn through that money and OSU and WSU are full on G5 teams? Ever been to Pullman or Corvallis when they play a non name team?  Tell me what the difference is between 8-4 in either conference? I’ll tell you, zero. Both go to lower bowl games. 

If they make a deal we can’t refuse, so be it. Otherwise it’s a short-sighted option. 
 

You guys moved “up” in conferences several times and it didn’t do shit for you. Did nothing for attendance or tv, you were a .500 at best program. Sonny Dykes changed your fortunes, not moving conferences.

 

We had 32,000 for a Friday night game against BYU.  Games against TCU and FSU are already sell outs.  SMU has won more football games than any program in Texas the last 5 years so your .500 "at best" doesn't seem to make a lot of mathematical sense.  We now have Clemson, FSU, Miami, UNC, UVA, Stanford, etc. as conference mates so I'd say the realignment maneuvering form the WAC to CUSA to AAC to ACC was very successful for SMU.  SMU won its first football conference title with Rhett Lashlee at the helm not Sonny Dykes.  The two previous coaches had taken SMU to bowl games prior to Dykes' arrival.

I'm sure people have been able to post more incorrect information in three sentences but you've definitely given them a run for their money.  Kudos.

Edited September 17 by SMU2006

[keith]

There shouldn't be any lipstick left in Denton County as we try to pretty ourselves up.  

[GMG_Dallas]

28 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

 

Not good for us UNT fans.

[SMU2006]

3 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Not good for us UNT fans.

Not necessarily.  Those are the schools targeted.  UNLV is having trouble since they are apparently attached at the hip to UN-Reno.  Gotta go to the PAC and make the argument that having a presence in DFW helps bridge the geography with Memphis, Tulane, and UTSA.  

 

That's also 11 schools.  Weird number.  12 makes it better and could allow for a true East/West setup.

Edited September 17 by SMU2006