PAC is back

[SMU2006]

5 minutes ago, keith said:

Maybe the PAC only took 4 from the MWC in order to leave the MWC intact as a conference at 8.  Something tells me they didn't want to destroy the conference right out of the gate.  They may end up doing that anyway as it looks east (but not too far east) to round out its membership.  My guess is they would like the AFA, but may feel that the AAC has a better chance of pulling them in with the other service academies.  

If you think they don't want to destroy the MWC (while taking some of their most valuable properties) you don't understand how these things work.  The PAC literally is a carcass of its former self b/c it was picked apart by other conferences.  They will pillage anything and everything they can to remain alive.

IMO, the invites to the four schools is meant to create panic and urgency by the other MWC schools as well as potential targets in the AAC.  If you're Memphis do you really want to sit back and wait for an ACC/Big 12 invite that is never going to happen or do you act now to make sure you are in the "best of the rest" G5 league?  Same goes for USF who will no doubt need to have a geographic bridge with likely Tulane, UTSA, and UNT.

You could have a conference with a footprint in San Diego, Denver(ish), Las Vegas, DFW, Memphis, San Antonio, New Orleans, and Tampa.  That "should" be enough to get a media partner interested.

[SMU2006]

West -     SDSU, Wazzu, Oregon State, Boise State, CO State, Fresno State, UNLV

East -      Memphis, UNT, UTSA, Texas State, Tulane, East Carolina, USF

 

Problem solved 🙂

[meanrob]

4 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

If you think they don't want to destroy the MWC (while taking some of their most valuable properties) you don't understand how these things work.  The PAC literally is a carcass of its former self b/c it was picked apart by other conferences.  They will pillage anything and everything they can to remain alive.

IMO, the invites to the four schools is meant to create panic and urgency by the other MWC schools as well as potential targets in the AAC.  If you're Memphis do you really want to sit back and wait for an ACC/Big 12 invite that is never going to happen or do you act now to make sure you are in the "best of the rest" G5 league?  Same goes for USF who will no doubt need to have a geographic bridge with likely Tulane, UTSA, and UNT.

You could have a conference with a footprint in San Diego, Denver(ish), Las Vegas, DFW, Memphis, San Antonio, New Orleans, and Tampa.  That "should" be enough to get a media partner interested.

If I'm the eastern schools you better have a damn good idea of how much you can get in a media deal. The numbers thrown around in some of these tweets/reports are ridiculous. My guess is they try really hard to get money from a streaming service but then nobody sees your games. 

The MWC adding the two PAC schools didn't bring any value, I don't know why it suddenly has value going the other way. 

[GMG_Dallas]

1 hour ago, SMU2006 said:

Agreed.  Set up divisions or (at very least) three or four conference games against teams that are regional.  Cuts down on travel costs and maintains at least a few annual rivalries.  

Something to consider though is how desperate are some of the leftover MWC to get that PAC invite?  I got a feeling the PAC is going to leverage the fear of being left in the lurch to incentive potential expansion candidates to forego media revenue and/or "pay" to join.  If you're UNLV right now you are probably willing to do just about anything not be left out of the PAC.  Same goes for the other MWC teams.  Will that have a trickle down effect to schools like Memphis, Tulane, and USF?  

Sure a school like UNLV is likely desperate. I think the western AAC schools are the next target so they'll likely get a deal similar to what the MWC 4 got. The Pac is also desperate in that they need 2 more to be a conference. Why not take 2 more from the MWC? Because they want 2-4 from the AAC. Just a matter of who from the AAC.

[rcade]

42 minutes ago, Coffee and TV said:

Could make the same argument about UNT except it's a little closer, and all of the front range along I-5 is sort of considered the Denver market until you get closer to Colorado Springs. I'm betting a ton of CSU alumni live in the metro area like we do in DFW. 

I think Denton is more strongly tied to Dallas than Fort Collins is to Denver, but the suburban sprawl is eventually going to reach Fort Collins the way it did Denton. Maybe the distance matters less than whether Fort Collins counts as Denver media market.

When I went to UNT in the 1980s it felt like Denton was a college town outside of DFW. When I'm back now it feels like part of the endless sea of humanity, KTCK listeners, Tex-Mex and hot-headed gun-toting drivers.

[rcade]

18 minutes ago, meanrob said:

The MWC adding the two PAC schools didn't bring any value, I don't know why it suddenly has value going the other way. 

The value the other way is the giant pile of money that fell into the PAC-2's laps and a media deal that will be a step above what the MWC is getting.

[NT80]

12 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Sure a school like UNLV is likely desperate. I think the western AAC schools are the next target so they'll likely get a deal similar to what the MWC 4 got. The Pac is also desperate in that they need 2 more to be a conference. Why not take 2 more from the MWC? Because they want 2-4 from the AAC. Just a matter of who from the AAC.

The PAC took the best MWC assets first = Boise and SDSU.   Not sure why CSU and Fresno over AF and UNLV? 

I think now they are in evaluation mode with the new members, getting media estimates, before their next move. 

It will be a showdown between PAC and AAC to see who blinks first.  I bet AAC is already on the phone to AF.  If I'm Jared, I'm on the phone to UTSA, Memphis, and Tulane seeking a group effort to either go or stay as a foursome.

[Green Otaku]

8 minutes ago, NT80 said:

The PAC took the best MWC assets first = Boise and SDSU.   Not sure why CSU and Fresno over AF and UNLV? 

I think now they are in evaluation mode with the new members, getting media estimates, before their next move. 

It will be a showdown between PAC and AAC to see who blinks first.  I bet AAC is already on the phone to AF.  If I'm Jared, I'm on the phone to UTSA, Memphis, and Tulane seeking a group effort to either go or stay as a foursome.

From what I've read UNLV might have problems with moving without Nevada, as the state legislators might make a big deal/make it difficult to do.  As for AFA, with CSU you have a team in Colorado already so they might want to expand the footprint first. Also people are skeptical how the academies will compete in the future since they don't have any NIL.

[UNTLifer]

4 hours ago, SMU2006 said:

I do think eastward expansion is the only choice for the PAC.  Some combination of Memphis, Tulane, UNT, UTSA, Texas State, and USF.  

As opposed to westward expansion.

[C Rod]

Here's what's left of the MWC. Visually it's clear to me that the PAC will poach the American next. Question is how many schools do they plan to pick off and what new TV markets add value to their next TV deal?

I think @NT80 suggestion of Memphis, Tulane, UNT, & UTSA is right on the money. Doing so will diminish the AAC in both brands and large TV markets and create much-needed conference separation for the PAC as they try to rise from the ashes. 

I bet UTEP is thrilled with this new development. They are ripe for the picking if MWC wants to expand into Texas. Could also see them add on Texas State for a foothold in central Texas and a travel partner for UTEP. 

[SMU2006]

3 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Sure a school like UNLV is likely desperate. I think the western AAC schools are the next target so they'll likely get a deal similar to what the MWC 4 got. The Pac is also desperate in that they need 2 more to be a conference. Why not take 2 more from the MWC? Because they want 2-4 from the AAC. Just a matter of who from the AAC.

Its not just UNLV that's desperate.  The PAC is going to be the "best of the rest" conference.  That's going to create a sense of desperation for every program in the AAC and MWC.

[GMG_Dallas]

13 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

Its not just UNLV that's desperate.  The PAC is going to be the "best of the rest" conference.  That's going to create a sense of desperation for every program in the AAC and MWC.

Understood. I just don't see the PAC making any concessions right now to let UNLV in. Their MWC pickings are done. Next is the AAC.

[SMU2006]

3 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Understood. I just don't see the PAC making any concessions right now to let UNLV in. Their MWC pickings are done. Next is the AAC.

You're thinking of it the wrong way.  You're right that the PAC will not do anything to help UNLV.   They are hoping that the defections of the four MWC will create a panic from schools like UNLV to do whatever they can to get in.  This could mean funding their own buyouts of the existing MWC and foregoing a certain percentage (or all) media rights.  

The PAC has all the leverage now.  It'll be interesting to see which schools can both financially and institutionally incentive the PAC to extend an invite b/c now the AAC and MWC are in danger of losing "best G5" status to the PAC.

[SMU2006]

This might be Rice's only saving grace.  They absolutely have the donor base to fund a move but based on recent history they have zero interest in being competitive in football.  Rice's combination of academics, money, and location could be interesting to the PAC but they are seriously lacking commitment to athletics.  I think that alone puts them behind UNT, UTSA, and Texas State.

[untjim1995]

I’m conditioned to expect this to go completely wrong for us, but I’d love to have games in football and basketball against those pac brands, especially if it gets some other programs I mentioned before in this thread. 

[UNTLifer]

46 minutes ago, C Rod said:

Here's what's left of the MWC. Visually it's clear to me that the PAC will poach the American next. Question is how many schools do they plan to pick off and what new TV markets add value to their next TV deal?

I think @NT80 suggestion of Memphis, Tulane, UNT, & UTSA is right on the money. Doing so will diminish the AAC in both brands and large TV markets and create much-needed conference separation for the PAC as they try to rise from the ashes. 

I bet UTEP is thrilled with this new development. They are ripe for the picking if MWC wants to expand into Texas. Could also see them add on Texas State for a foothold in central Texas and a travel partner for UTEP. 

Who is the logo by Air Force?

[MeanGreenGlory]

As @SMU2006 is pointing out, don’t underestimate media markets in all this. 
 

The current PAC additions are more brands than they are media markets (SDSU is the exception in #30 media market). To bolster their media revenue, they’ll need to play the market game for the networks. 
 

UNT delivers a huge alumni base and big student body in the #5 media market. With decent football over the past handful of years and a good basketball program, we’re an attractive add even if we don’t have a recent football conference championship to tout. 

Other Media Markets of Note:

#6 Rice

#31 UTSA

#40 UNLV

#50 Memphis

#51 Tulane

[SMU2006]

18 minutes ago, MeanGreenGlory said:

As @SMU2006 is pointing out, don’t underestimate media markets in all this. 
 

The current PAC additions are more brands than they are media markets (SDSU is the exception in #30 media market). To bolster their media revenue, they’ll need to play the market game for the networks. 
 

UNT delivers a huge alumni base and big student body in the #5 media market. With decent football over the past handful of years and a good basketball program, we’re an attractive add even if we don’t have a recent football conference championship to tout. 

Other Media Markets of Note:

#6 Rice

#31 UTSA

#40 UNLV

#50 Memphis

#51 Tulane

#12 Tampa (USF)

[GMG_Dallas]

50 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

You're thinking of it the wrong way.  You're right that the PAC will not do anything to help UNLV.   They are hoping that the defections of the four MWC will create a panic from schools like UNLV to do whatever they can to get in.  This could mean funding their own buyouts of the existing MWC and foregoing a certain percentage (or all) media rights.  

The PAC has all the leverage now.  It'll be interesting to see which schools can both financially and institutionally incentive the PAC to extend an invite b/c now the AAC and MWC are in danger of losing "best G5" status to the PAC.

It is my opinion that this isn't about who wants into the PAC but who the media networks want in the PAC. I would not be surprised if there's already an agreement laid out between the PAC and another media network or two that says what the media deals will look like with which schools. Because the PAC ended up keeping $65 million from the departed schools, they can cherry-pick who the networks want by funding the buyouts to those schools' current conferences. It allows the networks involved to cut who they believe to be dead weight from current conference structures by using the PAC money to pay buyouts and gives the PAC new life. It's a win-win for the PAC, networks, and those who make it out alive. Those who don't get buried a bit deeper.

Again, it's not about who's desperate to get in but who the networks want to be in.

Edit I realize this is all obvious. I just highly doubt any desperate efforts to get in will help any school from the G5.

Edited September 13 by GMG_Dallas

[C Rod]

24 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

Who is the logo by Air Force?

Colorado College in Colorado Springs. They don't participate in football. I pulled the map from MWC website which is why they are included. 

[SMU2006]

2 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

It is my opinion that this isn't about who wants into the PAC but who the media networks want in the PAC. I would not be surprised if there's already an agreement laid out between the PAC and another media network or two that says what the media deals will look like with which schools. Because the PAC ended up keeping $65 million from the departed schools, they can cherry-pick who the networks want by funding the buyouts to those schools' current conferences. It allows the networks involved to cut who they believe to be dead weight from current conference structures by using the PAC money to pay buyouts and gives the PAC new life. It's a win-win for the PAC, networks, and those who make it out alive. Those who don't get buried a bit deeper.

Again, it's not about who's desperate to get in but who the networks want to be in.

Edit I realize this is all obvious. I just highly doubt any desperate efforts to get in will help any school from the G5.

The potential for being left out is going to create a ton of anxiety.  PAC is making a move to create the best non P4 conference in the country that will almost assuredly get the one at-large bid to the playoff.  You better believe there is gonna be an all out war between schools in the MWC and AAC to get in.

[Coffee and TV]

26 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

Who is the logo by Air Force?

Colorado College. I guess they must play some sports in the Mountain West. 

[Coffee and TV]

9 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

#12 Tampa (USF)

Denver is 17th. 

[wardly]

52 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

This might be Rice's only saving grace.  They absolutely have the donor base to fund a move but based on recent history they have zero interest in being competitive in football.  Rice's combination of academics, money, and location could be interesting to the PAC but they are seriously lacking commitment to athletics.  I think that alone puts them behind UNT, UTSA, and Texas State.

Texas State and UTSA are basically in the same market.

[NT80]

1 hour ago, UNTLifer said:

Who is the logo by Air Force?

Missouri.   They just accepted a MWC invite....