PAC is back

[untjim1995]

32 minutes ago, Coffee and TV said:

Sheesh, if everyone ends up in 3 conferences of 25 teams at some point then what's even the advantage? I bet in 5-10 years time we'll see them all break up again. I'm going to blame A&M for all of this, this all started when they went to the SEC. 

Actually, Nebraska and Colorado left the Big 12 first...

[El Paso Eagle]

35 minutes ago, Matt from A700 said:

I'm OK with less fluff, but there's no way UNLV doesn't join the Pac-12 too, so we need one more out our way in this hypothetical.

UNLV goes due to location only, not the team. The same could be said for UTSA. It's curious how Texas State has a couple of solid years and how, all of a sudden, everyone forgets they have not been a good program for years. If you are going to consider them, wouldn't you be better off going after Rice?
If the PAC wants to be a West Coast conference (assuming the "coast" goes all the way to the Rockies, then they probably hope for Cal and Stanford. The MWC seems to have been doing a good job getting their contracts in place to protect the conference. If the pac tries to go after more teams and that drops the MWC below eight, I wonder if they (MWC) have any recourse (they have to have known that what looks to be happening was going to happen). It will be interesting to see what criteria the pac will be emphasizing in their attempted additions.

If the other X teams come from the AAC, could we be looking at a merger with the AAC and the MWC? Regardless, the American should be on the phone with Air Force and New Mexico.

 

[NT80]

13 minutes ago, wardly said:

I don't see that any of the 3 G6 programs in Texas add anything to a PAC 6 rebuild. I aree with you that Stanford and Cal are locked into the ACC. Even if it implodes and Clemson/FSU bail out the others could stay and still have a "Big 12" type of conference . Two programs that may be caught in the middle who are west of the Mississippi are Tulane and Memphis should the PAC 6 wish to reach that far.  However the tv money the PAC 6 offers will probably be in the $3 to $5 million range similar to the MWC and AAC. In addition, all you are doing is moving from one G6 program to another which is not their goal. Their best bet is probably to sit tight and be available should expansion opportunities in the ACC or Big 12 arise.

The Texas schools offer larger media markets than Memphis and Tulane, plus less distance and better airport connections. 

[wardly]

7 minutes ago, untjim1995 said:

The new Pac is smart by OSU and WSU. Playing Wyoming, San Jose State, Hawaii, and New Mexico provides very little in help. Travel is expensive and they carry very few eyeballs.

Air Force, Utah State, UNLV and Nevada will probably be next on their list. That gets them to ten and it keeps them in the same footprint they've all been used to. The invites to Gonzaga and St. Mary's will be coming soon, too, just to add in more names for a revenue sport.

I doubt they expand East. For decades, we have waited for the MWC to come back to Texas after TCU left. And all that UTEP, UNT, SMU, Rice, and UTSA saw were nothing. I can see Hawaii going independent. I think Wyoming, SJSU, and New Mexico may very well be SBCUSA teams very soon. Maybe the AAC sees value in UNM, but I doubt it.

 

I don't think of the 4 programs you mentioned only UNLV is a real consideration. CSU and the AFA are in the same market so the Falcons are out. Hawaii is heavily subsided by the MWC who might no longer be able to contribute to its travel expenses forcing the Rainbow Warriors to drop football. However the MWC could pick up UTEP and NMSU and move forward . Personally I don't see any advantage for UNT moving from one P6 conference to another when the money is the same, the travel expenses for all your sports are astronomical, you can't compete the other programs NIL money, and your away games kick off at 9:30 pm.

[wardly]

1 minute ago, NT80 said:

The Texas schools offer larger media markets than Memphis and Tulane, plus less distance and better airport connections. 

People watch Tulane and Memphis when they play. No one watches UNT,UTSA, Texas State, or Rice. [Also UTSA and Texas State are basically in the same media market.] How has being in a larger media market helped UNT and Rice?

[CMJ]

1 hour ago, wardly said:

 I was surprised that the announced Saturday attendance at the Texas Tech away game at Washing State was only 27,000. 

Their stadium only seats about 32K people - it's not much bigger than ours.

[NT80]

2 minutes ago, wardly said:

People watch Tulane and Memphis when they play. No one watches UNT,UTSA, Texas State, or Rice. [Also UTSA and Texas State are basically in the same media market.] How has being in a larger media market helped UNT and Rice?

I don’t know anyone that watches Tulane or Memphis.  They were both bad football not that long ago. 

You don’t think UNT and Rice being in a large media market helped?  La Tech and Southern Miss would like a word with you…
 

 

[Green Otaku]

9 minutes ago, wardly said:

I don't think of the 4 programs you mentioned only UNLV is a real consideration. CSU and the AFA are in the same market so the Falcons are out. Hawaii is heavily subsided by the MWC who might no longer be able to contribute to its travel expenses forcing the Rainbow Warriors to drop football. However the MWC could pick up UTEP and NMSU and move forward . Personally I don't see any advantage for UNT moving from one P6 conference to another when the money is the same, the travel expenses for all your sports are astronomical, you can't compete the other programs NIL money, and your away games kick off at 9:30 pm.

I'll say (and take this with a huge grain of salt) that rumors on different boards and sites say they are looking at a $100m a year TV deal from some TV partner or streaming partner. Others are saying $10M to $14M a team, depending on who they get. Again just rumors and "insider info" I have seen around. I would expect the 6 current teams to go forward and shop deals around with different team configurations and try to lure teams that way. I would think $10M a year would be the minimum to get the western AAC members to listen.

[C Rod]

From Ross Dellenger:

https://sports.yahoo.com/after-latest-realignment-moves-which-other-schools-will-the-pac-12-try-to-scoop-up-182233033.html

Quote

American Athletic

If the Pac-12’s next preferred expansion targets were in the Mountain West, they’d likely have taken them this week.

They didn’t — a sign that they first may look for easterly candidates. That includes a host of programs, many of them now members of the American Athletic Conference, for years the premier Group of Five league in college athletics.

The AAC has the most attractive members from a TV market, brand value and on-field success perspective, including Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, North Texas, Rice and even one in Florida (South Florida). The Texas schools would make strong travel partners with one another. Same goes with Tulane and Rice, two high academic institutions that are in close proximity (though Rice is a hard sell).

If given the chance — not all will get interest from the Pac-12 (this is speculative) — these schools must decide if moving to a conference across the country, in a completely different region and cultural fit, is off-set by the Pac-12’s brand and television value.

The problem: We don’t really know its TV value, but those at the Pac-12 estimate it to be higher than the best Group of Five deal, which is the American, which distributes to its original members about $8-10 million annually.

If the Pac-12 is at $10-12 million per school, is that worth a move across the country? What about $15 million? That latter figure seems high, but who knows.

Don’t expect new AAC commissioner Tim Pernetti to not be proactive. According to those with knowledge of his thinking, Pernetti is interested in pursuing Mountain West programs, such as Air Force. Pernetti already has Army and Navy in his conference. Air Force is a sensible and attractive addition, and the AAC could offer more in distribution than the Mountain West, which is at about $5-6 million.

 

[SMU2006]

41 minutes ago, untjim1995 said:

The new Pac is smart by OSU and WSU. Playing Wyoming, San Jose State, Hawaii, and New Mexico provides very little in help. Travel is expensive and they carry very few eyeballs.

Air Force, Utah State, UNLV and Nevada will probably be next on their list. That gets them to ten and it keeps them in the same footprint they've all been used to. The invites to Gonzaga and St. Mary's will be coming soon, too, just to add in more names for a revenue sport.

I doubt they expand East. For decades, we have waited for the MWC to come back to Texas after TCU left. And all that UTEP, UNT, SMU, Rice, and UTSA saw were nothing. I can see Hawaii going independent. I think Wyoming, SJSU, and New Mexico may very well be SBCUSA teams very soon. Maybe the AAC sees value in UNM, but I doubt it.

 

Eastward expansion is the only viable solution for a new PAC-12.  The schools you cited do absolutely nothing from a TV perspective except UNLV.

 

If the PAC is being proactive and strategic they will target Memphis, UNT, UTSA, Tulane, Navy, and USF.  Kill the AAC and have coast to coast content which should be attractive to the TV suits.

[UNTLifer]

What is the attraction to CO St. 

[Rudy]

1 hour ago, Coffee and TV said:

Sheesh, if everyone ends up in 3 conferences of 25 teams at some point then what's even the advantage? I bet in 5-10 years time we'll see them all break up again. I'm going to blame A&M for all of this, this all started when they went to the SEC. 

Actually, it's the fault of t.u. and their dongwhorn network.

[EAGLE83]

Playoffs. You don’t think pac 12 champ would be higher rated than the G5 conferences.

[Cougar King]

1 hour ago, UNTLifer said:

What is the attraction to CO St. 

Land grant school that has everything needed to be in a power conference except being able to win consistently. 

[wardly]

57 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

What is the attraction to CO St. 

The Denver market. Regarding media rights value of the new PAC 6, a former executive of Fox sports who negotiated for  before retiring Fox  said on a recent podcast that a combination  on the PAC 2 and MWC schools would be worth an amount similar to the MWC's current contract. Finely the addition of UNT to the DFW market and Rice to the Houston market hasn't moved the media needle nearly as much as successful athletic programs in much smaller markets. Memphis and Tulane come to mind.

[MeanGreenTeeth]

Meh..  Playing a bunch of little brother West Coast teams doesn't seem very attractive for a very minor increase in pay.  It's not like any of our students are going to get excited about playing Fresno State.   Maybe the American can add Air Force for the exposure and UNLV so that the athletes and fans have a fun travel location.    

[untjim1995]

11 minutes ago, MeanGreenTeeth said:

Meh..  Playing a bunch of little brother West Coast teams doesn't seem very attractive for a very minor increase in pay.  It's not like any of our students are going to get excited about playing Fresno State.   Maybe the American can add Air Force for the exposure and UNLV so that the athletes and fans have a fun travel location.    

In truth, the AAC probably won't lose anyone. The Western schools just want to consolidate around closer schools with programs that are more similar to each other in the western time zones. Wyoming is more like Idaho and Montana and the Dakotas. SJSU and Hawaii are much more like UTEP and NMSU than they are any of the MWC schools that are leaving. 

Get UNLV and Nevada, see if you can get AFA, if you can, then add in UNM, and get Gonzaga and St. Mary's for hoops. That's a solid 10 team football conference. And its a very strong basketball conference. 

[Mean Green 93-98]

26 minutes ago, MeanGreenTeeth said:

Meh..  Playing a bunch of little brother West Coast teams doesn't seem very attractive for a very minor increase in pay.  It's not like any of our students are going to get excited about playing Fresno State.     

I agree . . . but the problem is, if other AAC teams join up with them, what will we have left?

Regardless, we're far from a slam dunk to get invited.

[wardly]

3 hours ago, untjim1995 said:

In truth, the AAC probably won't lose anyone. The Western schools just want to consolidate around closer schools with programs that are more similar to each other in the western time zones. Wyoming is more like Idaho and Montana and the Dakotas. SJSU and Hawaii are much more like UTEP and NMSU than they are any of the MWC schools that are leaving. 

Get UNLV and Nevada, see if you can get AFA, if you can, then add in UNM, and get Gonzaga and St. Mary's for hoops. That's a solid 10 team football conference. And its a very strong basketball conference. 

The PAC 2 doesn't want Nevada but the Wolf Pack and UNLV may be locked at the hip by state politicians. I don't know why the AFA wasn't invited unless after getting CSU the PAC 2 doesn't really need another school in Colorado.  To me New Mexico doesn't bring anything to the table other that a very poor state with sparse population and no following. If the PAC 2 really wants the best teams in the west it appears to me that UNLV and AFA would fit the bill.

[3_n_out]

So the new Pac6 is essentially MWC 2.0. I believe this is a final attempt for wazzou and OSU to use the PAC brand to be considered as a “Power” team. Besides, how much value do those two teams actually bring to the table (honest question)? The same two teams who couldn’t lure others to join them. The same two teams that other conferences broke off expansion talks with. Is the PAC brand enough to get them paid more than what the AAC is getting paid? 

[NT80]

 

[Stix]

Anyone else notice that all six schools' names are "... State University"? 🤔

[NT80]

7 minutes ago, Stix said:

Anyone else notice that all six schools' names are "... State University"? 🤔

That is what the UNLV board is saying:   change their name to Las Vegas State and get an invite.

[NM Green]

UNLV and Nevada are not tied at the hip. They have only been conference mates for about a decade or little more. 

UNLV, Memphis South Florida, Tulane make most sense. All time zones covered. 

GMG

[rcade]

6 hours ago, EAGLE83 said:

Playoffs. You don’t think pac 12 champ would be higher rated than the G5 conferences.

The new PAC-12 *is* a G5 conference.