PAC is back

NT80 · September 14

3 hours ago, Arkstfan said:

Pac didn't grab the UNLV market, they didn't grab the national tv interest in Air Force. They are hunting schools who can win OOC games and be playoff contenders. They'll come hard after Memphis and Tulane and whomever else they think helps but they aren't looking for academic peers, geography, or markets. They want winners and they want schools willing to overspend to be good.

That doesn't sound like the definition of Colo St or Fresno. Neither are really National brands nor strike fear in P4 schools.

NT80 · September 14

3 hours ago, El Paso Eagle said:

@KingDL1 Can you please move this to the Conference Realignment board?

Why? It directly relates to the AAC's future and thus UNT's Football future.

GMG_Dallas · September 14

1 hour ago, Green Otaku said:

The AAC plan is to have the newbies invest and eventually build the conference back up to what it was. If that doesn't happen then the AAC made the wrong choices on who to add, so we'll see how that plays out in the future.

The most prudent thing to me is to jump as a block, assuming we are included. You talk to Tulane/Memphis/UTSA/Rice/whomever and you get on the same page as to what it would take to get you to move. UNT and UTSA jumping without anyone else without a significant bump in $$$ would be foolish.

100% agree. The only way it works is as a block. I don't think the current PAC with just any 2 AAC schools works with the involved travel. Need that PAC East division for it to work.

wardly · September 14

2 hours ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Of course that's a great point. The PAC has $65 million to spend if I'm not mistaken. Are they covering all of the MWC buyouts? I don't think so but I'm not sure. I read they were just helping so who knows what that means. I'd imagine they earmarked some for the MWC 4 and some for whoever else they want. You also have to consider what the next AAC deal will be without Houston, Cincy, UCF, and even SMU. Now imagine if Memphis and Tulane leave. It'd be CUSA 2.0 and we don't want that. The media deal would be a fraction of what it is now so we'd be at a loss in money over the course of a 10 year media deal when factoring the $10 million buyout versus better long-term media money. The only option is invest now for a better deal later. Otherwise you're always stuck in conference purgatory.

We cry about UNT never making the right investments in athletics. This is the prime opportunity. We better do everything possible to be included.

$235 million

3_n_out · September 14

I just remembered that we are scheduled to have a home and home series against Wazzu in football and basketball against OSU. I’m wondering if this was just a coincidence or perhaps a preview for the PAC?

GMG_Dallas · September 14

7 hours ago, wardly said:

$235 million

Wow. Had no idea it was that large. Yeah, the PAC will get whoever the networks want them to get out of the G5.

wardly · September 14

I am surprised that New Mexico is in the PAC 2 expansion conversation. UTSA appears to be a lock if they expand into Texas. Texas State is getting some noise but they are basically in the same market as the Roadrunners, so UNT could be a good match. The pod cast word is that the PAC 2 is paying $100 million to basically "buy " four MWC schools and don't want to spend anymore hence one of the reasons they have interest in AAC programs. Also the UNLV pod caster said the the Rebels have financial issues in their athletic department plus political problems in trying to separate from Nevada Reno. Also mentioned was that the AFA was passed over because the academies don't participate in NIL and that they possibly might be interested in moving their football program to the ACC and other sports to the Big Sky. However it would cost then $18 million to buy out of the MWC. Finely Sacramento State has a group of businessmen and alumni who has put together a committee to move their program up to 1A status so they might be considered by both the PAC 2, who has stated they are not interested, and the MWC, who has made no comment to date. Surprisingly this committee doesn't, at this point in time,does not have university representation included. Finely,I have no predictions other than the sun will rise tomorrow.

southsideguy · September 14

After today's performance no one will ask us to dance. Bad day in Mudsville.

Arkstfan · September 14

22 hours ago, NT80 said:

That doesn't sound like the definition of Colo St or Fresno. Neither are really National brands nor strike fear in P4 schools.

Fresno won 9 last year, 10 in 2022 and won the MWC, 10 in 2021. If that ain't good enough they ain't finding 8 teams.

Colorado State gets a pass over down years because they spend.

NT80 · September 14

9 minutes ago, Arkstfan said:

Fresno won 9 last year, 10 in 2022 and won the MWC, 10 in 2021. If that ain't good enough they ain't finding 8 teams.

Colorado State gets a pass over down years because they spend.

It's not good enough by either to be seen as Playoff Contenders or National Brands. AF would have been my pick over Colo St, like you said, they have a National following already.

Likewise UNLV instead of Fresno. Huge growing sports town in Las Vegas, more potential to become a National brand.

Here is the latest on the Pac-6 future additions timeline from the Oreg. St AD....

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/41260659/pac-12-look-add-new-schools-quickly

SMU2006 · September 16

On 9/14/2024 at 3:27 PM, southsideguy said:

After today's performance no one will ask us to dance. Bad day in Mudsville.

One game is irrelevant to how these things go. I still think there is a very good chance the PAC extends invites to UNLV, Memphis, UNT, UTSA, Tulane, and potentially USF. They need markets in the absolute worst way in addition to burying their competition (MWC/AAC). It makes too much sense but it'll depend on who ESPN decides they want to join the league.

El Paso Eagle · September 16

21 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

It makes too much sense but it'll depend on who ESPN decides they want to join the league.

Sadly, the non-power conferences do not have a history of doing what makes sense 🤣

SMU2006 · September 16

2 minutes ago, El Paso Eagle said:

Sadly, the non-power conferences do not have a history of doing what makes sense 🤣

None of it really makes sense. It'll be dictated by a combination of factors:

1) ESPN and the PAC war chest brokering schools out of their existing conferences/contracts

2) Strength of identifiable football brands and TV markets

3) Access to the playoff; what combination of schools makes the PAC the clear front runner in G5?

All of those things tell me that, at a minimum, four schools will be added to the PAC. Depending on how the numbers work it could be as many as eight but I doubt they do that many. Six schools sounds about right but again it'll be dictated by some combination of 1-3 above.

DeepGreen · September 16

All of this potential conference shakeups going on and we drop a turd in Lubbock.

wardly · September 17

17 hours ago, DeepGreen said:

All of this potential conference shakeups going on and we drop a turd in Lubbock.

One game should not make a difference. Assuming that the PAC 6 needs to get to 10 teams in order to avoid having to schedule 5 non conference games with an 8 team conference, and that Tulane and Memphis see no advantage in moving from one G6 conference to another,UNT might get an invitation along with UTSA, who appears to be a lock. Also adding the AFA to the AAC might be because the conference expects to be poached by the PAC 6 and is simply being proactive as well as having all 3 service schools in the same conference. However the AFA could wants to join as football only similar to Army and Navy parking their other sports in the Big Sky conference. Fun times.

EAGLE83 · September 17

The PAC needs 2 more basketball schools and 4 more baseball schools for automatic bids to playoffs. The MWC needs one more Basketball and 3 more Baseball Schools.Does not having BASEBALL hurt chances for a PAC invite

NT80 · September 17

1 hour ago, wardly said:

One game should not make a difference. Assuming that the PAC 6 needs to get to 10 teams in order to avoid having to schedule 5 non conference games with an 8 team conference, and that Tulane and Memphis see no advantage in moving from one G6 conference to another,UNT might get an invitation along with UTSA, who appears to be a lock. Also adding the AFA to the AAC might be because the conference expects to be poached by the PAC 6 and is simply being proactive as well as having all 3 service schools in the same conference. However the AFA could wants to join as football only similar to Army and Navy parking their other sports in the Big Sky conference. Fun times.

Air Force got beat bad by Baylor, Colo St beat bad by Colorado, and UTSA crushed by Texas. They are all still being talked about for expansions.

wardly · September 17

1 hour ago, EAGLE83 said:

The PAC needs 2 more basketball schools and 4 more baseball schools for automatic bids to playoffs. The MWC needs one more Basketball and 3 more Baseball Schools.Does not having BASEBALL hurt chances for a PAC invite

I doubt it. Football is driving this otherwise UTSA and Texas State would not be in the conversation. However if baseball was the only thing between us and the PAC 6, and if a move was really financially beneficial, we would probably agree to add baseball in the next 5 years or so at which time we might be able to weasel out agreement of actually add a team.

SMU2006 · September 17

Its happening (and it'll come together VERY quickly)

3_n_out · September 17

Welp…nothing on UNT yet. What percentage would you rate our chances to be invited. I think 25% sadly.

wardly · September 17

38 minutes ago, 3_n_out said:

Welp…nothing on UNT yet. What percentage would you rate our chances to be invited. I think 25% sadly.

From what podcasts I have seen we are not even in the conversation. However that could change depending upon how many teams the PAC 6 wants in Texas. It could be an either or choice between UTSA and Texas State as most pod casters don't know how close the two schools are to each other . Then we might slide in because the media size of DFW. If both Tulane and Memphis move our chances are determined as to what size the PAC 6 wants to get to, 10 or 12 football programs. If 10 we might be passed over , if 12 maybe not.

wardly · September 17

2 hours ago, SMU2006 said:

Its happening (and it'll come together VERY quickly)

So if true it would appear that Tulane and Memphis will be offered which probably also means they will accept.

Cooke County Kid · September 17

So the PAC is up to six, to get to 10, add Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, UNT and there you are. I believe that 12 is a better number with a six team split east and west. Please make this happen.

NT80 · September 18

AAC could just add Air Force and Texas State.

Memphis is Probation U. anyway. Let them go...

MeanGreenRoadrunner · September 18

The $15 mill makes a lot of sense for the quick jumps. If you're one of the new American teams, like UTSA/UNT, you may have to make the jump. That's about triple what they get in the American right now.

Edited September 18 by MeanGreenRoadrunner