Latest on OSU/WSU vs MWC

[NT80]

Latest on OSU/WSU vs MWC.   From the MWC board and The Athletic:

https://www.mwcboard.com/index.php?/topic/92358-conference-realignment-thread/page/1822/#comments

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Basically a rehash that corroborates what Dodd has already reported.  Here are some excerpts:

Last December, the parties agreed to a one-year football scheduling agreement, helping the Beavers and Cougars secure six additional Mountain West opponents for their 2024 football schedules in exchange for more than $14 million. …. Both sides say an agreement on a 2025 football schedule needs to happen before the 2024 season kicks off. So will it?

“I’m pretty confident,” Mountain West commissioner Gloria Nevarez said. “You never know with how contracting goes. It was built in anticipation as a two-year schedule. Because that’s how you mitigate competitive inequities, and we figure if we’re going to do it, it’s easier to do two. It’s not for any reason except for we had to get through June meetings, then July gets kind of quiet. (Pac-12 commissioner Teresa Gould) and I have been talking, and it’s just been a phone tag thing.” …

“We’ll have to see if everything falls into place or we explore a different path for that second year,” new Washington State athletic director Anne McCoy said, “or if everything goes forward with the Mountain West.”

Big picture, Oregon State and Washington State want to buy as much time as possible and see what happens elsewhere — perhaps, say, if Florida State and Clemson try to officially leave the ACC, that league might explore getting back to 17 members. Oregon State athletic director Scott Barnes told The Athletic earlier this year that joining a Power 4 conference is the top priority, followed by some merger with the Mountain West.

“It’s important to get the time to see where the landscape is going,” said Oregon State executive deputy athletic director Brent Blaylock, who represented OSU at the Vegas event. “We’ve seen the volatility of how things change. We know some of the other friction points going on in other places. So it’s important for us to just stay abreast of what’s going on.”

The Mountain West, meanwhile, feels more emboldened than it did a year ago and doesn’t appreciate the image of being a backup option. The introduction of a 12-team CFP means the Mountain West champion has a path to the Playoff for the foreseeable future, while the Pac-2 can only receive an at-large berth, and the CFP deal with ESPN runs through 2032. The Mountain West also got six teams into this year’s NCAA men’s basketball tournament. It won’t beg for two more members.

“When I first started (as commissioner), everyone was growing to 14, 16, and I thought maybe that’s where we need to be,” Nevarez said. “I’m not seeing a need now. Certainly if there’s an opportunity to make us better, I would absolutely chase that down. But I’m feeling pretty good about where we are.” …

What does hang over the Mountain West is its television deal, which recently added TNT Sports as a third partner and runs through 2025-26. That coincidentally times up with the Pac-2’s window. It’d be an easy moment to make an addition.

But what about departures? The Mountain West office has maintained that its exit fee ($18 million, or $36 million for schools leaving within a year) applies regardless of the TV situation, something that was brought up last summer when San Diego State danced with the idea of leaving the league. Any attempt by Oregon State and Washington State to pull Group of 5 teams from multiple conferences would be very expensive, even with a $255 million war chest leftover from the Pac-12.

The football agreement signed last year lays out that adding one Mountain West school would cost the Pac-2 $10 million. Adding six schools would cost $67.5 million; 11 schools would cost $137.5 million, not including their exit fees for leaving the MW. But adding all 12 would cost nothing. The league held firm in putting that deal together, protecting everyone.

The one wild-card scenario is dissolving the Mountain West, which would require nine of 12 schools voting in favor and therefore removing any exit fees. That possibility has not garnered enough votes to be an option, especially given the open desire of the Pac-2 schools to land elsewhere.

Oregon State and Washington State will chart their future amid plenty of internal change. Football coach Jonathan Smith and highly-touted quarterback Aidan Chiles left Oregon State for Michigan State, and star running back Damien Martinez went to Miami (Fla.). Washington State athletic director Pat Chun left for Washington, and talented quarterback Cam Ward went to Miami. Influential president Kirk Schulz will retire next June. That turnover has made a difficult situation even tougher.  No one associated with the Pac-2 [at the league’s media event in Las Vegas] could say what the future holds …

[greenminer]

Direct link to comment that NT80 copy-pasted in its entirety.

[NT80]

2 hours ago, greenminer said:

Direct link to comment that NT80 copy-pasted in its entirety.

Geez.  Are you the new forum-police?

It wasn't pasted in it's entirety.  The original full article is behind a paywall.  The portion I posted is from a thread on a public fan message board.  The poster even says this is "excerpts".

Do you know what excerpts are?

From the thread poster:  "Basically a rehash that corroborates what Dodd has already reported.  Here are some excerpts:"

Otherwise, do you have any comments about the subject matter?  Will they merge or purge?

 

Edited July 24 by NT80

[Jonnyeagle]

2 hours ago, greenminer said:

Direct link to comment that NT80 copy-pasted in its entirety.

He did not paste in its entirety to my recollection.

[greenminer]

48 minutes ago, NT80 said:

Geez.  Are you the new forum-police?

It wasn't pasted in it's entirety.  The original full article is behind a paywall.  The portion I posted is from a thread on a public fan message board.  The poster even says this is "excerpts".

Do you know what excerpts are?

From the thread poster:  "Basically a rehash that corroborates what Dodd has already reported.  Here are some excerpts:"

Otherwise, do you have any comments about the subject matter?  Will they merge or purge?

I was just making an observation.  If the guidelines don't say anything about copy-pasting from other forums, then you're allowed, right?

Please doesn't call me out on not commenting on the subject matter.  You didn't comment either.  In that sense, we're both making observations, AMIRIGHT?

 

48 minutes ago, Jonnyeagle said:

He did not paste in its entirety to my recollection.

He copy-pasted the entire post from the thread.  Which, as we can see in the guidelines, looks like it's okay!

Edited July 24 by greenminer

[NT80]

54 minutes ago, greenminer said:

I was just making an observation.  If the guidelines don't say anything about copy-pasting from other forums, then you're allowed, right?

Please doesn't call me out on not commenting on the subject matter.  You didn't comment either.  In that sense, we're both making observations, AMIRIGHT?

 

He copy-pasted the entire post from the thread.  Which, as we can see in the guidelines, looks like it's okay!

I'm just posting information to our fans about a subject/subjects that could affect UNT Athletics down the road.   But I can delete it all too and let you find your own info if it bothers you so much you feel you need to police it like you do.   Let the Mods police things on the boards.  But as you have observed the Mods aren't doing anything anyway, but that's Harry's problem, not yours.

Anyway, back to the subject....OSU/WSU are watching the ACC lawsuits.  Their priority is a P4 invite, which only comes if the ACC loses schools.  If there is not ACC chaos by Feb, then the PAC-2 will decide to either merge into the MWC (official G5 status then) or steal 6 MWC schools, trying to keep the PAC alive.  I think they opt to keep the PAC alive as long as possible. 

If the MWC becomes fractured they in turn could reload with FCS move-ups (now $5mil by NCAA rule) or try to invite AAC schools for a merger.  

Edited July 24 by NT80

[Matt from A700]

Are OSU/WSU enticing to any conference at this point? Sure, the MWC commish's comment is probably just for leverage, but if they weren't close enough to add travel partners for Cal/Stanford, I don't think they'd be anyone's radar. If it weren't for Cal/Stanford, I'm sure Memphis/USF/Tulane/UAB/FAU would be higher targets for the ACC if their conference implodes.

And once the best teams in the ACC leave, you're mostly left with a bunch of 1-sport schools. At that point I'd hope to see a more regionalized reorganization between those leftovers, The American, the MWC, and maybe some of the top CUSA/Sun Belt schools.

Of course, that won't happen, so I'm still hoping we position ourselves to be part of the Pac-12's reorganization.

[NT80]

On 7/24/2024 at 3:44 PM, Matt from A700 said:

Are OSU/WSU enticing to any conference at this point? Sure, the MWC commish's comment is probably just for leverage, but if they weren't close enough to add travel partners for Cal/Stanford, I don't think they'd be anyone's radar. If it weren't for Cal/Stanford, I'm sure Memphis/USF/Tulane/UAB/FAU would be higher targets for the ACC if their conference implodes.

I read this will be the first football season that either OSU or WSU has not competed at the top level (P5).   I think they will try everything they can to get back to that level, either by elevating the PAC again, or even buying their way into the ACC (if they lose a couple schools).  Merging into the MWC will be their last option to take.

[NT80]

More smoke about OSU and WSU possibly joining the Big12 in a graduated entrance, deferred media revenue, and paying costs of travel for distant conference schools...

 

 

[NT80]

From the MWC Fan Forum:

(MWC Commish) Gloria mentioned that the MWC was about to start media negotiations with potential media partners and hoped to have an agreement in place by next spring. Most of the estimates that I have seen seem to think the MWC media contract would generate from 7-10 million per team as the conference stands now. Jim Williams an industry insider estimates adding WS and OSU would only add about 10% to a new contract. If a new contract is in place by next spring the exit fees will go from 17 to about 20-23 million per team for more than 1 year notice and close to 40 million for less than 1 year notice. If the Pac-2 only generate 10% for the MWC nobody will pay anything to join them.

"The addition of Oregon State and Washington State would mean only a 10% to 15% increase in the current Mountain West deal, according to one veteran industry source with experience in television negotiations."

"I don't think it will be that much," countered Jim Williams, Emmy-winning sports media consultant. "I would think more like 10 [percent]. Fifteen percent is way too much." 

[MCMLXXX]

 

[El Paso Eagle]

There is going to be a lot of money involved for those schools in the MWC.

[DeepGreen]

8 minutes ago, El Paso Eagle said:

There is going to be a lot of money involved for those schools in the MWC.

Ponying up to join this new PAC?

[meanrob]

Not sure where this goes, you would think they would add six. 
 

This will still be a G5 conference no matter who they add so I wonder if any AAC teams see any appeal to joining. 
 

With the amount of money coming in, I wonder who the MWC goes after. We have to be on the potential list. 

[UNTLifer]

ESPN has an article on this as well. Unable to copy and paste from my phone. 

[NT80]

$18 million exit fee to MWC for each school, which this ESPN article says the PAC2 could/would help with. 

This is what many expected OSU and WSU to do.  Cherry pick schools from the MWC to re-form their own Conference.

They need 8 total to be a viable Conference again.  The other invites will be very interesting.  
 

The MWC would still have 8 members, and thus be a viable Conference, if they don’t get poached any additional schools. 

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/41226997/sources-boise-state-four-schools-set-join-pac-12

 

[El Paso Eagle]

45 minutes ago, NT80 said:

$18 million exit fee to MWC for each school, which this ESPN article says the PAC2 could/would help with. 

This is what many expected OSU and WSU to do.  Cherry pick schools from the MWC to re-form their own Conference.

They need 8 total to be a viable Conference again.  The other invites will be very interesting.  
 

The MWC would still have 8 members, and thus be a viable Conference, if they don’t get poached any additional schools. 

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/41226997/sources-boise-state-four-schools-set-join-pac-12

 

 

 

[Matt from A700]

I think they are eyeballing Texas programs. As I've been saying, Pac-12 rebuild needs to be our goal.

The American is more unstable than CUSA right now imo.

[El Paso Eagle]

54 minutes ago, NT80 said:

They need 8 total to be a viable Conference again.  The other invites will be very interesting.  
 

The MWC would still have 8 members, and thus be a viable Conference, if they don’t get poached any additional schools. 

The other two could be interesting. I think they are hoping Cal and Stanford come back. I don't think they try to get any other MWC teams for various reasons, even though I think they would like UNLV. Could they try to get a footprint in Texas? You might see them go after UTSA for the location as much as anything, and possibly the same goes for UNT or Rice. Even though Texas State is hot right now, I would not think they would be on the radar. I think they will stop at eight right now, regardless, to see the fallout when the Super Conferences are formed and what is available.

PS - If I were the American Commissioner, I would be on the phone with the Air Force Academy. 

[ColoradoEagle]

If the new Pac-12 pulls from AAC, I'd expect it to either be UTSA/UNT for Texas, or Memphis/Tulane for quality. Could easily see a scenario where the AAC pursues New Mexico, Air Force, UNLV, and Nevada regardless of what the Pac-12 does.

[Jonnyeagle]

8 minutes ago, ColoradoEagle said:

If the new Pac-12 pulls from AAC, I'd expect it to either be UTSA/UNT for Texas, or Memphis/Tulane for quality. Could easily see a scenario where the AAC pursues New Mexico, Air Force, UNLV, and Nevada regardless of what the Pac-12 does.

If airports are the key I would think DFW would be a plus.  On the other hand, if they are looking for the stronger program in football over the past years it would be Texas San Antonio.

 

[NT80]

21 minutes ago, El Paso Eagle said:

The other two could be interesting. I think they are hoping Cal and Stanford come back. I don't think they try to get any other MWC teams for various reasons, even though I think they would like UNLV. Could they try to get a footprint in Texas? You might see them go after UTSA for the location as much as anything, and possibly the same goes for UNT or Rice. Even though Texas State is hot right now, I would not think they would be on the radar. I think they will stop at eight right now, regardless, to see the fallout when the Super Conferences are formed and what is available.

PS - If I were the American Commissioner, I would be on the phone with the Air Force Academy. 

I agree they are done with MWC unless maybe UNLV pays their own exit fees?
An 8-team conference is what the PAC2 originally said they were interested in, but perhaps media values could push it to 10 teams?

I wonder if media markets play into the final 2/4 invites?   Does Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, and UNT as a group have more value than Memphis by themselves?
 

 

 

[NT80]

51 minutes ago, Matt from A700 said:

I think they are eyeballing Texas programs. As I've been saying, Pac-12 rebuild needs to be our goal.

The American is more unstable than CUSA right now imo.

From the updated ESPN article….

“The six members will collaborate to decide which schools to target for further expansion, as the conference still needs to add two more schools to reach the NCAA minimum requirement. The conference is in the first year of a two-year grace period afforded by NCAA bylaws to exist below the minimum in the case of departures.

It is unclear how many schools the new-look conference expects to have by 2026.”

[Matt from A700]

10 minutes ago, NT80 said:

From the updated ESPN article….

“The six members will collaborate to decide which schools to target for further expansion, as the conference still needs to add two more schools to reach the NCAA minimum requirement. The conference is in the first year of a two-year grace period afforded by NCAA bylaws to exist below the minimum in the case of departures.

It is unclear how many schools the new-look conference expects to have by 2026.”

I want to know how the exit fees are being split. Are the Pac-2 paying, or are the schools fronting some of the cash too?

If the schools are still having to front some or half of the fees, I would think that would financially eliminate some of the MWC programs.

[NT80]

1 hour ago, Matt from A700 said:

I want to know how the exit fees are being split. Are the Pac-2 paying, or are the schools fronting some of the cash too?

If the schools are still having to front some or half of the fees, I would think that would financially eliminate some of the MWC programs.

The 8 remaining MWC schools will be hurting…not only with the loss of some of their best brands…but their media contract renewal soon will suffer too.  I bet many of them are on the phone to the AAC seeking shelter.