Pernetti Interview

[MCMLXXX]

AAC commissioner Tim Pernetti on Memphis' goal of leaving conference (commercialappeal.com)

CA: The AAC recently added Army as a football-only member after SMU left for the ACC. Are there any discussions about adding another non-football member to replace SMU's other sports?

Pernetti: There are many active discussions going on right now about membership. And I think we will be proactive and aggressive related to what we think are good opportunities in the space for the conference. And I've been really encouraged by the inbound outreach that I've gotten from some institutions in the industry wanting to learn more about what we're doing, where we're headed and explaining to us why it's interesting.

[peanuts104]

I'm dense, how does this affect us?

[GreenFlag]

9 hours ago, peanuts104 said:

I'm dense, how does this affect us?

Because we are in said conference and would be playing whoever we might select to replace SMU sports minus football. 

[greenjoe]

Doesn’t Wichita State fill that niche since they participate in all sports EXCEPT football ?

[wardly]

At the end of the day, in my opinion, only 2 programs have a chance to move up, and probably only if the ACC implodes. Memphis and USF. Tulane is just a smaller  SMU without as much money and  New Orleans only newspaper doesn't even publish every day. Future conference additions must be able to increase media money to a existing conferences members annual payout at a minimum. OSU and WSU couldn't, and were left behind.

[Hunter Green]

5 hours ago, wardly said:

At the end of the day, in my opinion, only 2 programs have a chance to move up, and probably only if the ACC implodes. Memphis and USF. Tulane is just a smaller  SMU without as much money and  New Orleans only newspaper doesn't even publish every day. Future conference additions must be able to increase media money to a existing conferences members annual payout at a minimum. OSU and WSU couldn't, and were left behind.

I'd hate to lose Memphis and USF. Both are premiere institutions. 

[wardly]

16 hours ago, Hunter Green said:

I'd hate to lose Memphis and USF. Both are premiere institutions. 

FX is becoming to Memphis what Nike is to Oregon. USF is spending a fortune on its new stadium complex . The Memphis market isn't that large but Tampa is.

[NT80]

1 hour ago, wardly said:

FX is becoming to Memphis what Nike is to Oregon. USF is spending a fortune on its new stadium complex . The Memphis market isn't that large but Tampa is.

Memphis' stadium is not on campus.   

USF's stadium has been pushed to 2027, if then.  It is similar looking to Apogee (DATCU), 35,000 seats, but will cost more that $340 Million, as of 2023 $. 

[Matt from A700]

On 7/4/2024 at 11:16 AM, greenjoe said:

Doesn’t Wichita State fill that niche since they participate in all sports EXCEPT football ?

They cancelled out Navy. Now without SMU but with Army, we have 14 football schools and 13 basketball (and most other Olympic sport schools).

In my opinion, we should be selective with any new programs that bring football. We're already a conference with a random allotment of schools with few big rivalries. Market size should be lower on the priority list for future expansion, with more focus on competiveness of programs and potential to create more rivalries or reignite old ones.

If we focus on expanding the Olympic sport-only programs, I think we should go east and target some of the A-10 schools. If we are looking for schools that will bring all sports, look west, and try to grab up some quality MWC programs before they give any life to a rebirthed Pac-12 (if we aren't invited to it).

[Matt from A700]

36 minutes ago, NT80 said:

We should try to be proactive and get invited to it...if it's a two division 14-team conference.  Eventually media will have a say in the PAC-rebirth, suggesting the best value combination of schools for greatest media revenue deal/potential.

To start however, the P2 could simply take the Top 6 MWC schools to meet the NCAA deadline to continue the PAC Conference by Summer 2026 for the 26-27 athletic season.  What happens to those other MWC schools?  Does the AAC have any interest?   

I've probably said it enough by this point but a revamped Pac-12 is my top choice as long as the media deal includes normal linear TV coverage and preferrably ESPN+ or Netflix for streaming as anything else would require me to invest in another service.

Your second paragraph creates an interesting situation I haven't thought of much yet. I would assume the first three that OSU/WSU would want would be Boise, San Diego State, and UNLV. Then maybe CSU, Fresno, and Nevada? If it's those 6, then I think that still gives the AAC a good mix of markets and quaity programs to go after: New Mexico, Air Force, Utah State, Wyoming, San Jose State and possibly UTEP as a connector to the more western schools. However, I don't think those teams will move the needle much for The American when it comes to national interest. And even if those schools were to accept invites to The American, I think it would be a temporary move while they position themselves to move up to the new Pac-12.

If the P2 take the best six MWC schools, the MWC could also backfill with the FCS powerhouses from the Dakotas, Idaho, and Montana which due to travel could convince the leftovers to stay.

Like we both said, I think a new Pac-12 is the best option for us. OSU, Wazzou, SDSU, Boise, UNLV, and Fresno in the West, UNT, UTSA, Colorado State, New Mexico, Rice, UTEP in the East. (Nevada and/or Utah State, Air Force and/or Wyoming if there was interest in a 14-16 team conference).

[wardly]

8 hours ago, Matt from A700 said:

I've probably said it enough by this point but a revamped Pac-12 is my top choice as long as the media deal includes normal linear TV coverage and preferrably ESPN+ or Netflix for streaming as anything else would require me to invest in another service.

Your second paragraph creates an interesting situation I haven't thought of much yet. I would assume the first three that OSU/WSU would want would be Boise, San Diego State, and UNLV. Then maybe CSU, Fresno, and Nevada? If it's those 6, then I think that still gives the AAC a good mix of markets and quaity programs to go after: New Mexico, Air Force, Utah State, Wyoming, San Jose State and possibly UTEP as a connector to the more western schools. However, I don't think those teams will move the needle much for The American when it comes to national interest. And even if those schools were to accept invites to The American, I think it would be a temporary move while they position themselves to move up to the new Pac-12.

If the P2 take the best six MWC schools, the MWC could also backfill with the FCS powerhouses from the Dakotas, Idaho, and Montana which due to travel could convince the leftovers to stay.

Like we both said, I think a new Pac-12 is the best option for us. OSU, Wazzou, SDSU, Boise, UNLV, and Fresno in the West, UNT, UTSA, Colorado State, New Mexico, Rice, UTEP in the East. (Nevada and/or Utah State, Air Force and/or Wyoming if there was interest in a 14-16 team conference).

As I previously posted the financial penalties that OSU and WSU agreed to in order to get the MWC to schedule football games with them for the next two years would make it extremely punitive for them to cherry pick that conference for new members. Unless 9 of the existing MWC vote to dissolve the conference its all or nothing. I don't remember when the MWC media contract expires but that would allow its members to get a "get out of jail free " card. I think the PAC 2 has until the end of 2026 to add members according to the NCAA which is earlier than the MWC media contract expires but am not 100%  sure. Also other than Colorado State and the AFC not a single school listed as a possible PAC 12 WEST brings much if any value to a new media contract for the new PAC.

 

 

 

 

 

[wardly]

5 minutes ago, wardly said:

As I previously posted the financial penalties that OSU and WSU agreed to in order to get the MWC to schedule football games with them for the next two years would make it extremely punitive for them to cherry pick that conference for new members next year. Unless 9 of the existing MWC vote to dissolve the conference its all or nothing. However the MWC media contract expires at the end of the 2025/26 and  would allow its members to get a "get out of jail free " card. The PAC 2 has until the end of 2026 to add members according to the NCAA  so these dates if correct seem to dovetail. Other than Colorado State and the AFC not a single school listed as a possible PAC 12 WEST brings much if any value to a new media contract for the new PAC. This is the reason given for OSU and WSU being left behind.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Wag Tag]

PAC, MWC, AAC should do some type of merger.

[NT80]

6 hours ago, Wag Tag said:

PAC, MWC, AAC should do some type of merger.

Yes, we need to distance ourselves from the SBC, MAC, CUSA.   This way if the P4 splits apart perhaps we could join the Tier 2 with them. 

[wardly]

14 hours ago, NT80 said:

Yes, we need to distance ourselves from the SBC, MAC, CUSA.   This way if the P4 splits apart perhaps we could join the Tier 2 with them. 

It's all about media value, not geography.

[wardly]

On 7/5/2024 at 6:59 PM, NT80 said:

Memphis' stadium is not on campus.   

USF's stadium has been pushed to 2027, if then.  It is similar looking to Apogee (DATCU), 35,000 seats, but will cost more that $340 Million, as of 2023 $. 

USF's opening for their new stadium is scheduled for 2027 with groundbreaking this year.

[wardly]

Please see the recent "Big Mountain " podcast where the narrators discuss the recent comments by President Schultz of WSU. He states that the goal is to put together the premier conference of the west coast. At present the PAC 2 as an agreement with the WCC for olympic sports thru 2025 , and with the MWC for football thru 2024 with a one year option for 2025. His feeling is that their path needs to be decided in early 2025 for scheduling purposes and media rights on a go forward basis. The take away message from the narrators perspective is that a merger between the PAC 2 and MWC is the best way to accomplish this.

[wardly]

On 7/8/2024 at 12:03 PM, wardly said:

Please see the recent "Big Mountain " podcast where the narrators discuss the recent comments by President Schultz of WSU. He states that the goal is to put together the premier conference of the west coast. At present the PAC 2 as an agreement with the WCC for olympic sports thru 2025 , and with the MWC for football thru 2024 with a one year option for 2025. His feeling is that their path needs to be decided in early 2025 for scheduling purposes and media rights on a go forward basis. The take away message from the narrators perspective is that a merger between the PAC 2 and MWC is the best way to accomplish this.

A new twist to a reverse merger is that the PAC 2 takes all the MWC teams and avoids any conference or individual school payouts. However they require all programs to increase their athletic budgets to a certain amount within in a defined timeline in order to remain a member. Both WSU and OSU athletic budgets are about $90 million while the closest MWC school is SDSU at about $60 million . The PAC 2  could require all incoming MWC teams to reach $60 million within 2 or 3 years or be dropped from the new PAC. This would probably eliminate the programs that they don't want such as Hawaii, Utah ST. , Nevada , New Mexico, SJSU, and Wyoming and give them an 8 school conference. It would also set the financial bar for any other programs that the new PAC might wish to include at a later date.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

within 2 or 3 years or be dropped. This should eliminate Hawaii, Utah St.

[NT80]

3 hours ago, wardly said:

A new twist to a reverse merger is that the PAC 2 takes all the MWC teams and avoids any conference or individual school payouts. However they require all programs to increase their athletic budgets to a certain amount within in a defined timeline in order to remain a member. Both WSU and OSU athletic budgets are about $90 million while the closest MWC school is SDSU at about $60 million . The PAC 2  could require all incoming MWC teams to reach $60 million within 2 or 3 years or be dropped from the new PAC. This would probably eliminate the programs that they don't want such as Hawaii, Utah ST. , Nevada , New Mexico, SJSU, and Wyoming and give them an 8 school conference.

WSU Prez said they reduced their athletic budget this year $11mil.    He indicated they (OSU & WSU) only want a conference with 8 teams.   Maybe a smaller, stronger conference on the west coast is better for a media deal?   

MWC media deals ends in 2026.  PAC-2 could offer each MWC defector $10 mil towards MWC buyout costs plus no buy in cost.  That's $60 mil vs $140 mil to buy them outright from the MWC.  

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-washington-state-president

[wardly]

2 hours ago, NT80 said:

WSU Prez said they reduced their athletic budget this year $11mil.    He indicated they (OSU & WSU) only want a conference with 8 teams.   Maybe a smaller, stronger conference on the west coast is better for a media deal?   

MWC media deals ends in 2026.  PAC-2 could offer each MWC defector $10 mil towards MWC buyout costs plus no buy in cost.  That's $60 mil vs $140 mil to buy them outright from the MWC.  

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-washington-state-president

The buy out costs for MWC programs to move to the PAC 2 on an individual basis is $5 million. The penalty the PAC must pay the MWC for poaching individual teams is $10 million for the first with incremental increases of $2.5 million per program. The total cost to the PAC to cherry  pick 6 teams from the MWC is $97.5 million. These are two conditions that the PAC agreed to in order to set a football scheduling agreement for the next two years. If the PAC 2 does a reverse merger and takes all the programs but sets an athletic budget of $60 million that each program must meet within 2 or 3 years they flush out the MWC bottom  feeders and it shouldn't cost them any money. However their media contract will be probably be less until that is accomplished. I am guessing that this will occur the 1st quarter of 2025. The situation could become a mute point if Clemson and FSU escape the ACC between now and then and the remaining members decide WSU and OSU look better as replacements than Memphis and USF.

[NT80]

3 hours ago, wardly said:

The buy out costs for MWC programs to move to the PAC 2 on an individual basis is $5 million. The penalty the PAC must pay the MWC for poaching individual teams is $10 million for the first with incremental increases of $2.5 million per program. The total cost to the PAC to cherry  pick 6 teams from the MWC is $97.5 million. These are two conditions that the PAC agreed to in order to set a football scheduling agreement for the next two years. If the PAC 2 does a reverse merger and takes all the programs but sets an athletic budget of $60 million that each program must meet within 2 or 3 years they flush out the MWC bottom  feeders and it shouldn't cost them any money. However their media contract will be probably be less until that is accomplished. I am guessing that this will occur the 1st quarter of 2025. The situation could become a mute point if Clemson and FSU escape the ACC between now and then and the remaining members decide WSU and OSU look better as replacements than Memphis and USF.

The Pac-2 doesn't want all the MWC.  They have $255M to buy the 6 schools they want and then let the rest of the MWC go expand elsewhere.

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-washington-state-president

I’ve written a lot about the $255 million war chest available to the two Pac-12 schools. I’m curious how you’ll use the money. Will you subsidize what media-rights money you would have normally received as a Power 5 member? Will you set aside money for exit fees, acquisitions, or “partnerships” as you call it?

[wardly]

40 minutes ago, NT80 said:

The Pac-2 doesn't want all the MWC.  They have $255M to buy the 6 schools they want and then let the rest of the MWC go expand elsewhere.

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-washington-state-president

I’ve written a lot about the $255 million war chest available to the two Pac-12 schools. I’m curious how you’ll use the money. Will you subsidize what media-rights money you would have normally received as a Power 5 member? Will you set aside money for exit fees, acquisitions, or “partnerships” as you call it?

Agreed, but why spend it if you don't have to?

[NT80]

34 minutes ago, wardly said:

Agreed, but why spend it if you don't have to?

The way the WSU Prez talked in the interview they want to be lean.  I assume they don't want all the extra combined conference staff/admin and 12 members of the MWC for their new PAC, only 6. 

Less teams to split media revenue with and less overhead.   

I wouldn't want to reverse-merge with all 12 and then cut 6 loose after the first season.   But maybe they will...to save $$ like you say. 

That would be rough for the released ones to re-start the MWC again from scratch.   The WAC has had 12 lives, maybe the MWC can too?

[wardly]

19 hours ago, NT80 said:

The way the WSU Prez talked in the interview they want to be lean.  I assume they don't want all the extra combined conference staff/admin and 12 members of the MWC for their new PAC, only 6. 

Less teams to split media revenue with and less overhead.   

I wouldn't want to reverse-merge with all 12 and then cut 6 loose after the first season.   But maybe they will...to save $$ like you say. 

That would be rough for the released ones to re-start the MWC again from scratch.   The WAC has had 12 lives, maybe the MWC can too?

They would save $97.5 million and the 6 teams would save a total of $30 million. The PAC would say that all 12 had the opportunity to stay but those who made the decision to leave based upon their inability to meet the minimum athletic budget did so at their own volition. The 6 released teams could add UTEP and New Mexico State and move forward. It's a cut throat world in college football right now.

[NT80]

Oregon State, Washington State keep bowl ties from Pac-12 deal

The Pac-12 said each of the league's bowl partners will "continue its agreed upon selection process″ among both current and former teams. The conference previously signed six-year bowl agreements that run through 2025.

The league has worked with the ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten conferences on the agreements for the Holiday Bowl, Independence Bowl, Las Vegas Bowl, LA Bowl, Sun Bowl, Alamo Bowl and the ESPN bowl pool.

The Rose Bowl is now part of the College Football Playoff. It will host a quarterfinal and semifinal game in the new 12-team format.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/40548476/oregon-state-washington-state-keep-bowl-ties-pac-12-deal