Is D1 Split Coming Soon?

[SMU2006]

1 hour ago, untjim1995 said:

There is no way you are convincing Texas, A&M, Alabama, Ohio State, North Carolina, USC, Notre Dame, or Michigan, as well as their media, to accept playing teams like SMU, Washington State, Boston College, Baylor, or other schools that are just not big enough to match their eyeballs.

When they whittle this down, it's gonna be about 48 schools, max. Maybe as few as 36 schools. The B1G and SEC, along with main parts of the ACC and Big 12 will move on, leaving the rest behind.

It will be one of my absolute favorite parts of that schism occurring when SMU has to play teams that they are meant to be playing, not any power conference that let them pay their way in for a few years.

You know the ACC has a GoR that runs through 2036 right?  SMU doesn't need the money.  Never has.  Its only about access to the system.  

Also, there is an inventory problem in the scenario you laid out whittling the P4 to the P2.  ESPN, FOX, etc. need the inventory irrespective of the perceived national appeal.  Relegating the G5 will have virtually no impact on TV ratings but doing that to the Big 12/ACC certainly will.  There is no incentive to do this for the networks who are the only voices that really matter in all this mess.

[SMU2006]

1 hour ago, untjim1995 said:

There is no way you are convincing Texas, A&M, Alabama, Ohio State, North Carolina, USC, Notre Dame, or Michigan, as well as their media, to accept playing teams like SMU, Washington State, Boston College, Baylor, or other schools that are just not big enough to match their eyeballs.

When they whittle this down, it's gonna be about 48 schools, max. Maybe as few as 36 schools. The B1G and SEC, along with main parts of the ACC and Big 12 will move on, leaving the rest behind.

It will be one of my absolute favorite parts of that schism occurring when SMU has to play teams that they are meant to be playing, not any power conference that let them pay their way in for a few years.

Lots of copium here but I get it.  The truth is UNT would've done the exact same thing SMU did to get out ahead of the eventual split if it had the financial and institutional resources to do so.  When faced with a choice of life or death you do everything you can to stay alive. 

The irrational hatred of SMU taking no media rights revenue while schools like Stanford, CAL, Oregon, and Washington are taking MASSIVE haircuts takes a special level of cognitive dissonance.  SMU had a handful of billionaires that were not going to watch the athletic department die when they could save it for the equivalent of a rounding error to their net worth.

[SMU2006]

1 hour ago, untjim1995 said:

There is no way you are convincing Texas, A&M, Alabama, Ohio State, North Carolina, USC, Notre Dame, or Michigan, as well as their media, to accept playing teams like SMU, Washington State, Boston College, Baylor, or other schools that are just not big enough to match their eyeballs.

When they whittle this down, it's gonna be about 48 schools, max. Maybe as few as 36 schools. The B1G and SEC, along with main parts of the ACC and Big 12 will move on, leaving the rest behind.

It will be one of my absolute favorite parts of that schism occurring when SMU has to play teams that they are meant to be playing, not any power conference that let them pay their way in for a few years.

That's why the inevitable outcome is going to be unequal revenue sharing among the P4.  

[SMU2006]

1 hour ago, wardly said:

 

Every scenario I have seen that adds Texas teams to the MWC does not include UNT. Rice,USTA,Texas State and even UTEP are mentioned.

I think North Texas makes way more sense than Rice, UTEP, Tulsa, or Texas State.  Far more resources than those programs who have shown very little financial commitment compared to UNT.  UTSA/UNT should be added in the PAC decides to cobble together best-of MWC/AAC.

[UNT_FH_FR_YR]

[TIgreen01]

9 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

That's why the inevitable outcome is going to be unequal revenue sharing among the P4.  

Which is why that, too, will fail.

[SMU2006]

4 minutes ago, TIgreen01 said:

Which is why that, too, will fail.

[untjim1995]

I just can't agree with one single iota of what SMU2006 is posting. You got into the ACC because you agreed to not take a penny of TV money from the ACC, that you had GWB and other billionaires beg for entry into a league that you will not be able to compete in at all as it currently stands, and that ACC GOR is only as solid as the strongest members want it to be. UNC, NC State, Clemson, Duke, Louisville, Pitt, Miami, FSU, Georgia Tech, UVa, and Va Tech all have homes in the B1G, SEC, and Big 12 right now if the ACC falls apart. Syracuse and BC go the way of UConn, while Wake Forest, SMU, and Cal are left behind. Stanford is the true wildcard in all of that, as I can see them in either the B1G or Big 12.

If I had to bet, the B1G would get Stanford, UVa, UNC, and Duke. The SEC would get Va Tech, NC State, Clemson, and FSU. The Big 12 would get Pitt, Louisville, GT, and Miami. The others get the Oregon State/Wazzou drop. Then, in another 5-10 years, the culling will go further, cutting out lower brands in those three leagues to get down to 36-48 programs. 

[SMU2006]

16 minutes ago, untjim1995 said:

I just can't agree with one single iota of what SMU2006 is posting. You got into the ACC because you agreed to not take a penny of TV money from the ACC, that you had GWB and other billionaires beg for entry into a league that you will not be able to compete in at all as it currently stands, and that ACC GOR is only as solid as the strongest members want it to be. UNC, NC State, Clemson, Duke, Louisville, Pitt, Miami, FSU, Georgia Tech, UVa, and Va Tech all have homes in the B1G, SEC, and Big 12 right now if the ACC falls apart. Syracuse and BC go the way of UConn, while Wake Forest, SMU, and Cal are left behind. Stanford is the true wildcard in all of that, as I can see them in either the B1G or Big 12.

If I had to bet, the B1G would get Stanford, UVa, UNC, and Duke. The SEC would get Va Tech, NC State, Clemson, and FSU. The Big 12 would get Pitt, Louisville, GT, and Miami. The others get the Oregon State/Wazzou drop. Then, in another 5-10 years, the culling will go further, cutting out lower brands in those three leagues to get down to 36-48 programs. 

"A league you will not be able to compete in at all as currently stands"

SMU currently projected to finish anywhere from third to sixth in the first year of the ACC.  Ranked in several preseason polls.  Best NIL collectives in the ACC.  Among the highest coaches salary pools for both football and basketball in the ACC.

 

But yeah.....can't compete 😞

Edited June 25 by SMU2006

[SMU2006]

21 minutes ago, untjim1995 said:

I just can't agree with one single iota of what SMU2006 is posting. You got into the ACC because you agreed to not take a penny of TV money from the ACC, that you had GWB and other billionaires beg for entry into a league that you will not be able to compete in at all as it currently stands, and that ACC GOR is only as solid as the strongest members want it to be. UNC, NC State, Clemson, Duke, Louisville, Pitt, Miami, FSU, Georgia Tech, UVa, and Va Tech all have homes in the B1G, SEC, and Big 12 right now if the ACC falls apart. Syracuse and BC go the way of UConn, while Wake Forest, SMU, and Cal are left behind. Stanford is the true wildcard in all of that, as I can see them in either the B1G or Big 12.

If I had to bet, the B1G would get Stanford, UVa, UNC, and Duke. The SEC would get Va Tech, NC State, Clemson, and FSU. The Big 12 would get Pitt, Louisville, GT, and Miami. The others get the Oregon State/Wazzou drop. Then, in another 5-10 years, the culling will go further, cutting out lower brands in those three leagues to get down to 36-48 programs. 

Pretty great self-own.  Yes if you're PITT, GA Tech, VT, Duke, WF, Louisville you're going to nuke your own safe harbor to join a league of academic dumpster fires of the Big 12 in the middle of nowhere America like K-State, OK State, Iowa State, WVU,  etc. when you already make more money and have long term stability in the ACC.

 

This is nothing to say of having the academic affiliation with Stanford/CAL.  Its more than just sports.  Every ACC school except Louisville is a USNWR Top 80 institution. 

Edited June 25 by SMU2006

[NT80]

2 hours ago, wardly said:

 

Every scenario I have seen that adds Texas teams to the MWC does not include UNT. Rice,USTA,Texas State and even UTEP are mentioned.

AAC didn’t want UTEP or Texas State.  MWC won’t either.  

[SMU2006]

14 minutes ago, NT80 said:

AAC didn’t want UTEP or Texas State.  MWC won’t either.  

In all likelihood it'll be a reverse merger with the PAC to keep the name (which technically still has some brand recognition).

Texas State might have an outside shot but UTEP is in the same boat with Rice.  They've all but given up and shown virtually zero financial commitment to their programs.  

[wardly]

4 minutes ago, NT80 said:

AAC didn’t want UTEP or Texas State.  MWC won’t either.  

I agree, but  I doubt they want us either. From what I have read the MWC has told the PAC 2 that it's all or none. If they stick to their guns then its a mute point. However if the PAC 2 cherry picks  SDSU,Fresno St., Boise, Air Force,Colorado State and UNLV then those "left behind" will be looking for help. CUSA or the WAC would probably throw them a lifeline. Personally I like us in the AAC. The MWC has a scheduling agreement with WSU and OSU , and a few weeks ago their Commissioner alluded to scheduling more games with AAC members. Perhaps that is why Wyoming is on this season's schedule. Also it appears that once again I was wrong about realignment as many pundits are projecting the implosion of the ACC as early as July with Clemson and FSU leading the charge. [so much for their iron clad conference media rights contract ]. If this happens then the BIG 10,SEC, and soon to be renamed BIG 12 will pick it apart. There may be a few leftovers who could find a home in the AAC,but the good news for the conference would be that Memphis, Tulane, and USF would once again be passed over.

[MeanGreenZen]

19 hours ago, DentonStang said:

Will P4 teams still be allowed to play lower division conference schools like AAC or SWAC?

A better question is: How soon will SMU be tossed back down to the lower conferences? The answer is: Very soon.

[MeanGreenZen]

45 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

"A league you will not be able to compete in at all as currently stands"

SMU currently projected to finish anywhere from third to sixth in the first year of the ACC.  Ranked in several preseason polls.  Best NIL collectives in the ACC.  Among the highest coaches salary pools for both football and basketball in the ACC.

 

But yeah.....can't compete 😞

I will bet you $1 that SMU never wins an ACC championship in football as long as the real ACC schools are still in that conference. You won’t have many chances. 

[NT80]

1 minute ago, wardly said:

I agree, but  I doubt they want us either. From what I have read the MWC has told the PAC 2 that it's all or none. If they stick to their guns then it’s a moot point. However if the PAC 2 cherry picks  SDSU,Fresno St., Boise, Air Force,Colorado State and UNLV then those "left behind" will be looking for help. CUSA or the WAC would probably throw them a lifeline. Personally I like us in the AAC. The MWC has a scheduling agreement with WSU and OSU , and a few weeks ago their Commissioner alluded to scheduling more games with AAC members. Perhaps that is why Wyoming is on this season's schedule. Also it appears that once again I was wrong about realignment as many pundits are projecting the implosion of the ACC as early as July with Clemson and FSU leading the charge. [so much for their iron clad conference media rights contract ]. If this happens then the BIG 10,SEC, and soon to be renamed BIG 12 will pick it apart. There may be a few leftovers who could find a home in the AAC,but the good news for the conference would be that Memphis, Tulane, and USF would once again be passed over.

Oregon St and Wash St are trying to stay afloat as Indy/non-G5 Football for as long as they can financially make it work off their PAC windfall assets. 
 

Keeping the PAC alive will involve finding a future media partner and willing schools to participate.  The makeup of any new proposed PAC conference will determine potential value to a media entity.  
 

The MWC has a media deal in place.  Luring members away would require more media $ and/or the potential to have a P5 patch. 

Most likely scenario has the MWC just absorbing them eventually. 

[NT80]

8 minutes ago, MeanGreenZen said:

A better question is: How soon will SMU be tossed back down to the lower conferences? The answer is: Very soon.

Yes.  P2 is the more likely final outcome of a split.  Not P4.  $mu is certainly not P2 material.  

[SMU2006]

28 minutes ago, MeanGreenZen said:

A better question is: How soon will SMU be tossed back down to the lower conferences? The answer is: Very soon.

COPIUM is strong with this one....

[NM Green]

Well that would be foolish to leave one of the hottest markets in the world out of a western evolution. The question is does MWC or AAC wield the final breakout. Army Navy USF Memphis Tulane FAU will not go quietly into the dark. Neither will North Texas nor UTSA. 

GMG

[UNTLifer]

1 hour ago, SMU2006 said:

"A league you will not be able to compete in at all as currently stands"

SMU currently projected to finish anywhere from third to sixth in the first year of the ACC.  Ranked in several preseason polls.  Best NIL collectives in the ACC.  Among the highest coaches salary pools for both football and basketball in the ACC.

 

But yeah.....can't compete 😞

Why are you here?

[UNTLifer]

1 hour ago, SMU2006 said:

 a league of academic dumpster fires

 

SMU is the Harvard on the Hilltop in name only.  Your academics aren't that great.

[ADLER]

24 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

SMU is the Harvard on the Hilltop in name only.  Your academics aren't that great.

SMU is a Texas R2 college, along with Sam Houston, Prairie View, and Tarleton.

 

 

.

Edited June 25 by ADLER

[Tom McKrackin]

6 hours ago, SMU2006 said:

One caveat I could see is a formalizing of the PAC as a "best of the rest" conference still maintaining access above the split line.  A reconstituted PAC made up of Wazzu/Oregon State/MWC/AAC might work if you could do an East-West divisional split

West - Wazzu, Oregon State, Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, CO State, Air Force

East -  North Texas, UTSA, Tulane, Memphis, USF, Navy, Army

This would be good!

[GMoney]

Of course it is!  That's what all of this has been about for the past 5 to 10 years.  These P5 snobs have hated the fact that they're in the same category as North Texas, South Alabama, Charlotte etc for years.  The good thing is greed will eventually bring them down.

"Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall"

[NorthTexasWeLove]

18 hours ago, untjim1995 said:

You’ve said this before, but those ADs and coaches are always looking for their next gig up the totem pole of college athletics. Disturb that apple cart and you never get to have the chance to eat the apples. And that’s exactly why the division ended up happening.

All of this has made me think that the places that have cared about sports and funding it, only to watch people bigger than them leave, are the biggest losers in all of this. Say that you’re a Tech alum or you went to Baylor. You’ve been ranked in the top 5 in football and basketball (men’s and women’s), as well as making trips to Omaha. You built up a program that often surpassed the Texas, Oklahoma, and Aggie triumvirate. And it meant nothing because those schools have all the money, t-shirt fans, and TV markets covered. Sure, they benefitted greatly from getting to play them in the first place, but their political strength and appreciation of sports got them there to the SWC/Big 12. And now, they both might be left behind. 
 

We got what we deserved for never caring about sports enough and for not using our location and size to make us better. We went arts and music and cheap tuition and got hundreds of thousands of alumni who won’t give back or go back to Denton. This Split should help us to at least stay even with a lot of teams and programs we should always be peers with, even if most of them have zero interest in being associated with us. If we get left behind again after this is done, somehow being stuck behind SMU, TCU, and UH, amongst others, I then think it’s time to close up shop. But I just don’t see that scenario happening again.

You're not wrong anywhere. But he bold should happen with split or no split. That doesn't really have anything to do with the split. The NCAA, moreso the TV executives, are trying to shake us and our peers once and for all. Completely cut off what they perceive as dead weight. Much like the FCS, we may veru rarely/never catch us on TV again. That's the risk here.