Looking to discuss, or debate: the future of CFB.

[untcampbell]

It isn't unusual for the doomsayers to dominate a discussion. Kind of like some are more likely to complain out loud about bad food or service than reflecting it in a tip. That said, the general trend is that CFB is changing, and not for the better. Especially for fans of less esteemed (rich) teams. If it is inevitable that the smaller schools will have to find a way to stay/become relevant, consider this (and by the way, I subscribe to the "there are no original thoughts remaining" so this isn't likely the first time you have seen this):

Adapt a major league baseball, farm system model.

The 50 or so elites can contract with 3 lessers to be their farm teams. Lessers might be considered A, AA, AAA. The current G5s, perhaps not all, could negotiate with the 50 to be their AAA team, hopefully with a regional bias. Current FCS teams might be AA, and whoever is left can negotiate their way into the A spots. Championships could be played at each level.

Each "farm" team would run their programs independent of their Major League team. Clearly the Major would want some influence but their would also be organic back and forth discussions about recruits, and it might even be part of the Major's recruiting strategy. "We really like you but we are stocked at RB and we would like to get you on the field in the Minors for a year, then bring you up. Here is an extra $150k to supplement what the Minor program will offer while you are there." But the Major would be given, for the contracted price, the right to "call up" any player on the farm teams. Players could go up and down in the system. Some Major signees may be sent down if they don't perform to the value of their NIL, some Minor players would move up. The Major could elect to continue to pay the Major NIL price that those sent down signed up for, to keep them in the system or not. Each minor level could offer its own NIL, and some of that funding could come from the revenue generated by its relationship with the Major.

To make it a bit more challenging, the minors could agree to run the same offense and defense as the major. It may be part of the negotiation amongst G5s as to who they may line up with. Even in-season call ups would be more natural if the player is in the same system as the Major team calling him up. Players might get called up for the bowl game when a Major player opts out of its bowl game. UTSA would likely line up with UT, as an example, and adopt similar playing styles.

Free agency would be restricted to certain times, just like the transfer portal is now. And money is going to play a big part in that. But maybe teams might offer more money for a longer commitment to stay, that either player or team could get out of for a price (say part of the NIL payment is escrowed for a period of time to be clawed back if the player opts to leave, or a separation payment is paid by the team to get rid of a kid it no longer wants).

To me, the upside for the minors is their place in the sport has more relevance, and likely more revenue (the two are related) through their relationship to the Major.

There are likely many issues to make this impossible. I'd like to hear them, and there is likely more to add on the positive side. 

Flame away, friends.

 

GMG

[NT80]

Nope.

I understand your intent, but I don’t want my school to ever be a lapdog “farm team” to any TCU or Baylor type program.  

[NorthTexasWeLove]

Yeah... because the minor league baseball teams are killing it in attendance, revenue, tv slots, etc. 

[NM Green]

The 20 programs need to break away and do their thing. They play each other home and away it’s a 40 game season that spans 6 months before playoffs and ultimate championship. There is one conference. 

The other 110 programs will play for bowl berths. Players will still develop and make their way to the holy grail NFL  

If the top league wants relegation they can offer up their 3 lowest performing each year. The 110 offer up their top 3 every year. It’s a constant swap out that keeps it interesting. Yes an LSU can get relegated and a Boise or Utah could take their place. 

This way you keep football 🏈 at all levels interesting and boys get their shots to prove themselves NFL CFL ready. 

GMG

[rcade]

6 hours ago, NM Green said:

If the top league wants relegation they can offer up their 3 lowest performing each year.

Nobody at the top will ever want relegation in a sport that doesn't have it. They want the sure thing of always being in the big-money league even if they play like SMU for decades.

[Green Lantern]

It isn’t doomsdayers though. Look around GMG alone. It’s just normal, committed fans that are being beaten into submission to the point of total apathy over all this.  It’s horrible for the sport at large - and the Top Tier P4 programs won’t realize they’ve completely destroyed the sport and college athletics in general until it’s too late.  Pure hubris.
 

To your farm system idea. Just no. 

[RBP79]

NO...

[DeepGreen]

And when the top tier P4 programs come looking for a "pushover" non-conference game, just say no.  Or, set the minimum "take home payout" for the "cupcake" team at $5,000,000+.  Otherwise, the P4's can go pound sand.  Or, sit in the corner with their P4 buddies and pound something else.

[NT93]

I get your concept, but I’m gonna say “no.”  
In no way do I aspire to be like a minor league baseball team.  That’s what I think the top 30-40 teams should be if they want to pay players.  Let them be the minor league for the pros and the rest of us can be college football.

[untjim1995]

The question that runs thru my mind is what happens to schools like ours for football and basketball? I mean, its very clear that the top levels could have as few as 24 schools up to 48, if you are only considering football. Add in college hoops and you'll add in some Big East schools and Gonzaga.

So what happens below this? Does another level get created? Is it a level that is based on money, TV markets, school size, or all of them? Do SMU and TCU preclude UNT from being in this level of play again? If they cannot, do we finally get to be in a situation that is full of regional schools that we have always wanted to be aligned with in a conference? If they do, should we fold it up like so many have wanted in Denton for so long? 

That's what I am most interested to see what this future holds for our athletic teams. Let's face it. If we had the support that a school of our size should have had all of these years, then we don't deal with any of these issues. But we have not had that, as the strong majority just flat out doesn't care about our teams at all. 

[NT80]

3 hours ago, untjim1995 said:

The question that runs thru my mind is what happens to schools like ours for football and basketball? I mean, its very clear that the top levels could have as few as 24 schools up to 48, if you are only considering football. Add in college hoops and you'll add in some Big East schools and Gonzaga.

So what happens below this? Does another level get created? Is it a level that is based on money, TV markets, school size, or all of them? Do SMU and TCU preclude UNT from being in this level of play again? If they cannot, do we finally get to be in a situation that is full of regional schools that we have always wanted to be aligned with in a conference? If they do, should we fold it up like so many have wanted in Denton for so long? 

That's what I am most interested to see what this future holds for our athletic teams. Let's face it. If we had the support that a school of our size should have had all of these years, then we don't deal with any of these issues. But we have not had that, as the strong majority just flat out doesn't care about our teams at all. 

Gonzaga will not always be Gonzaga-like in basketball.  They will have down years, like all programs.

The Top 40 football programs vary year to year.  Several will not be in the SEC or Big10.  Conference affiliation is not a lock for athletic superiority.   It lets you gain more revenue and play better teams but doesn't guarantee you will be Top 40 in football.   Have Vanderbilt, Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana, etc been Top 40 worthy in football in recent memory?   No. 

The thing that many are missing is that the SEC and Big10 cannot just go into a bubble and play themselves, nor stay elite by themselves.  Are Oregon and USC still considered elite if they go 7-5 or 6-6 in the Big10?   How about OU 7-5 in the SEC?   Fans and donors will scream for an A$M type coaching buy-out if any of those programs fall below 9-3.

They need other FBS programs to get their 7 home football games and try to keep their fans happy with enough wins. 

A$M's non-conference home football games this year include McNeese St, Bowling Green, and NMSU.  

Edited June 4 by NT80

[UNTLifer]

56 minutes ago, NT80 said:

The thing that many are missing is that the SEC and Big10 cannot just go into a bubble and play themselves, nor stay elite by themselves.  Are Oregon and USC still considered elite if they go 7-5 or 6-6 in the Big10?   How about OU 7-5 in the SEC?   Fans and donors will scream for an A$M type coaching buy-out if any of those programs fall below 9-3.

They need other FBS programs to get their 7 home football games and try to keep their fans happy with enough wins. 

A$M's non-conference home football games this year are McNeese St, Bowling Green, and NMSU.  

This is why schools on our level should band together and say no, or demand $5 to $7 million payout.  Sad thing is that there is no way all "G5" schools would agree to this.

[wardly]

17 hours ago, UNTLifer said:

This is why schools on our level should band together and say no, or demand $5 to $7 million payout.  Sad thing is that there is no way all "G5" schools would agree to this.

The P4 programs would just replace us with 1AA school. I would like to see the G6 programs separate from the P4's and set up their own football playoff system . Regarding UNT's position in the pecking order, the only school keeping us from moving up is UNT. With a few exception, we have poor alumni financial support. That, coupled with poor attendance in our football and men's basketball programs , puts us where we are. It's way past time to keep making excuses and blaming others  for our lot in life.

[untjim1995]

18 hours ago, NT80 said:

Gonzaga will not always be Gonzaga-like in basketball.  They will have down years, like all programs.

The Top 40 football programs vary year to year.  Several will not be in the SEC or Big10.  Conference affiliation is not a lock for athletic superiority.   It lets you gain more revenue and play better teams but doesn't guarantee you will be Top 40 in football.   Have Vanderbilt, Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana, etc been Top 40 worthy in football in recent memory?   No. 

The thing that many are missing is that the SEC and Big10 cannot just go into a bubble and play themselves, nor stay elite by themselves.  Are Oregon and USC still considered elite if they go 7-5 or 6-6 in the Big10?   How about OU 7-5 in the SEC?   Fans and donors will scream for an A$M type coaching buy-out if any of those programs fall below 9-3.

They need other FBS programs to get their 7 home football games and try to keep their fans happy with enough wins. 

A$M's non-conference home football games this year include McNeese St, Bowling Green, and NMSU.  

Well, NFL team fire coaches after losing season, why wouldn't their NFL-lite programs? When these top 24-48 teams breakaway, my guess is that they will reorganize around geography again and have 4-8 divisions that play a wildcard playoff system like the NFL does. For those that don't make the playoffs, the other bowls will setup games for these teams to play each other in a traditional ending for many teams. Sure, A&M may schedule spares now, but when the breakoff occurs and they play Texas, OU, Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss, Alabama, and Auburn as Division mates every year, while playing Washington, Michigan State, and Virgina Tech in OOC, their fans might get mad at 7-5, but the university will make so much more because all of their games are ones that people will pay to go see, networks will pay hugely to broadcast, and the players from HS up to non-power level college will drool over the payments and attention that they will get, which would dwarf anything we are seeing even today.

They don't need G5/FCS wins because teams today are opting out of spare bowl games because they know the players don't want to play in them. 

The CFB world needs an enema, badly. It got way to fat, both at the top levels of the sport, as well as in the sheer number of FCS schools who moved up to FBS just to get paid more by playing more OOC games, which fans of the big schools and their networks absolutely hate with a passion. 

[untjim1995]

12 minutes ago, wardly said:

The P4 programs would just replace us with 1AA school. I would like to see the G6 programs separate from the P4's and set up their own football playoff system . Regarding UNT's position in the pecking order, the only school keeping us from moving up is UNT. With a few exception, we have poor alumni financial support. That, coupled with poor attendance in our football and men's basketball programs , puts us where we are. It's way past time to keep making excuses and blaming others  for our lot in life.

I agree with you. But I guess my question is whether a different, higher level would exist in the non-power setup. IOW, are TCU, Baylor, SMU, UH, Tulane, and others creating a level of play that wouldn't include schools like ours? I'd seriously doubt that they could do that. Maybe they wouldn't let us play them and keep us from being in a conference with them, but I'd think that we would be able to play at this hypothetical scenario. Maybe our conference setup would be with other regional teams outside of Texas' old SWC teams again, but I'd imagine we would still be on equal footing with those schools.

[TheColonyEagle]

The first FPI ranking came out this week:

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/40263993/fpi-which-college-football-teams-undervalued-overvalued

The top 10 are all SEC or Big 10 (and ND). The first two NON SEC/Big 10 schools are schools that are suing to get into the SEC (FSU and Clemson). The first school not associated with the SEC/Big 10 not named Notre Dame is Kansas at #17. Then quickly followed by 2 more SEC and a new Big 10 to round out the top 20.

If this tells us anything about the future of College Football. The gap between most of this top 20 and everyone else is HUGE. (Kansas is an outlier here)

[NT80]

2 hours ago, untjim1995 said:

Sure, A&M may schedule spares now, but when the breakoff occurs and they play Texas, OU, Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss, Alabama, and Auburn as Division mates every year, while playing Washington, Michigan State, and Virgina Tech in OOC, their fans might get mad at 7-5, but the university will make so much more because all of their games are ones that people will pay to go see, networks will pay hugely to broadcast

The record is the issue.  Fans and networks only support winners.   These super powers are used to no more than 3 losses in a season, max.  When they start having 5-6 losses in a season, then they become the new "second tier" or lessor programs of the power schools.   None of those fan basses want or will support second tier.   

[NT80]

3 hours ago, untjim1995 said:

I agree with you. But I guess my question is whether a different, higher level would exist in the non-power setup. IOW, are TCU, Baylor, SMU, UH, Tulane, and others creating a level of play that wouldn't include schools like ours? I'd seriously doubt that they could do that. Maybe they wouldn't let us play them and keep us from being in a conference with them, but I'd think that we would be able to play at this hypothetical scenario. Maybe our conference setup would be with other regional teams outside of Texas' old SWC teams again, but I'd imagine we would still be on equal footing with those schools.

The answer is to look at Oregon State and Washington State.  Not wanted by other P4 conferences, they are trying not to admit they are G5/MWC material by staying semi-independent.  

[SMU2006]

3 hours ago, untjim1995 said:

I agree with you. But I guess my question is whether a different, higher level would exist in the non-power setup. IOW, are TCU, Baylor, SMU, UH, Tulane, and others creating a level of play that wouldn't include schools like ours? I'd seriously doubt that they could do that. Maybe they wouldn't let us play them and keep us from being in a conference with them, but I'd think that we would be able to play at this hypothetical scenario. Maybe our conference setup would be with other regional teams outside of Texas' old SWC teams again, but I'd imagine we would still be on equal footing with those schools.

There's going to be a split coming in the next 4-5 years.  The only G5's that might get a life boat are Tulane, USF, San Diego State, and Memphis (maybe). 

[keith]

20 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

There's going to be a split coming in the next 4-5 years.  The only G5's that might get a life boat are Tulane, USF, San Diego State, and Memphis (maybe). 

I'm not sure conference membership is going to be the determining factor on where the line is snapped.  There is a lot of dead weight in some of the so-called P4 (and even P2) conferences that don't really belong above the line.  So rather than giving a handful of G5s a life boat, it's more likely that a lot of schools that think they are safe, will find themselves on the outside looking in just like the rest of us.  

Edited June 4 by keith

[wardly]

Private schools may be caught in the middle, unless you are USC. My best guess is that if you are in an existing P4 school you will have the option of playing with the big boys or dropping down.The Big 10 and SEC are driving this realignment along with television and streaming services. For the sake of argument lets say it is decided by the decision makers to take 50 high profile football programs and spin them off from the NCAA.  With the Big 10 and SEC accounting for at least 30 schools that leaves 20 to be added from the ACC and Big 12 conferences plus Notre Dame . I don't know if the SEC will kick Vanderbilt to the curb but I doubt P4 private schools such as SMU,TCU, and Baylor will be invited to the party as this new conglomerate is looking for programs that have somewhat of a national presence. But what about schools like Mississippi State for example.Well, they are already in the fraternity, sort of like a legacy. You may not want them in but you can't kick them out. Any G6 program that anticipates a "bid" is "whistling Dixie" , as we old timers used to say. I wish the the existing P6 conferences would make the first move and leave the NCAA in football and establish their own playoff system extending an open invitation to the P4 programs who will be left behind .However since I have no idea what television and streaming services stances are its hard for me to fault them for not going all in.

[wardly]

10 minutes ago, wardly said:

Private schools may be caught in the middle, unless you are USC. My best guess is that if you are in an existing P4 school you will have the option of playing with the big boys or dropping down.The Big 10 and SEC are driving this realignment along with television and streaming services. For the sake of argument lets say it is decided by the decision makers to take 50 high profile football programs and spin them off from the NCAA.  With the Big 10 and SEC accounting for at least 30 schools that leaves 20 to be added from the ACC and Big 12 conferences plus Notre Dame . I don't know if the SEC will kick Vanderbilt to the curb but I doubt P4 private schools such as SMU,TCU, and Baylor will be invited to the party as this new conglomerate is looking for programs that have somewhat of a national presence. But what about schools like Mississippi State for example.Well, they are already in the fraternity, sort of like a legacy. You may not want them in but you can't kick them out. Any G6 program that anticipates a "bid" is "whistling Dixie" , as we old timers used to say. I wish the the existing P6 conferences would make the first move and leave the NCAA in football and establish their own playoff system extending an open invitation to the P4 programs who will be left behind .However since I have no idea what television and streaming services stances are its hard for me to fault them for not going all in.

PS: I would like to add that I have NEVER been correct in predicting how conference will realign. I thought that a movement towards regional conferences in an effort to curb rising travel expenses and increase gate attendance would be the way to go. Silly me .  Stanford and Cal joined the ACC , UNT added a polo team,and here we sit. Oh well!

[untjim1995]

4 hours ago, SMU2006 said:

There's going to be a split coming in the next 4-5 years.  The only G5's that might get a life boat are Tulane, USF, San Diego State, and Memphis (maybe). 

If you think you or Tulane are gonna be included in a power setup among the top 24-48 schools, you need to use your $$$$ towards psychotherapy 

[GrandGreen]

9 hours ago, wardly said:

The P4 programs would just replace us with 1AA school. I would like to see the G6 programs separate from the P4's and set up their own football playoff system . Regarding UNT's position in the pecking order, the only school keeping us from moving up is UNT. With a few exception, we have poor alumni financial support. That, coupled with poor attendance in our football and men's basketball programs , puts us where we are. It's way past time to keep making excuses and blaming others  for our lot in life.

My take is a bit different.  Not disagreeing with NT having poor financial support is an issue, but I do think this has a lot more to do with outside forces than it does NT.

One factor, that is rarely mentioned is that NT's early integration played a substantial role in NT not being in a Texas conference .  Being in the MVC certainly didn't help create fans as the SWC ruled the state and did everything they could to maintain that status.   

This may be ancient history, but I believe the effect still lingers. 

Students that wanted a rah rah sports oriented school did not pick NT if they had other options

College student support is now becoming more equal not because of NT's progress, but now most students are just not as interested as in the past in college sports.  

Teams are propped up by rich alums that grew up when college sports were much more popular. 

This audience will fade away. 

College sports has thus far survived NIL, title 9 and other government intervention; but at some point unless massive changes are made, it will not in the future.   

 

 

[NT80]

6 hours ago, SMU2006 said:

There's going to be a split coming in the next 4-5 years.  The only G5's that might get a life boat are Tulane, USF, San Diego State, and Memphis (maybe). 

Your money won't buy you onto the split list.   The scam will be over!