Why the NCAA model is dying and will be replaced

untjim1995 · May 2

NCAA Finances: Revenue & Expenses by School - USA TODAY

The reshaping of the entire system needs to be done ASAP. Let the NFL-lite and NBA-lite programs run their own teams. Hell, own them if they want. Pay players, trade them, sign them to long-term deals, etc. Let them be pros.

The rest of us need to play traditional college sports. Scholarships + stipends. Let them be college kids. Give G5 schools a chance to be a national champion. You'll get a lot of us olds back with this plan. And olds have time and money.

NT80 · May 2

4 hours ago, untjim1995 said:

NCAA Finances: Revenue & Expenses by School - USA TODAY

The reshaping of the entire system needs to be done ASAP. Let the NFL-lite and NBA-lite programs run their own teams. Hell, own them if they want. Pay players, trade them, sign them to long-term deals, etc. Let them be pros.

The rest of us need to play traditional college sports. Scholarships + stipends. Let them be college kids. Give G5 schools a chance to be a national champion. You'll get a lot of us olds back with this plan. And olds have time and money.

I agree the entire NCAA needs revised or taken over by another entity (not named SEC or Big10).

But to drop us down to G5 National Champion status is no different then 1-AA or FCS National Champ. No Thanks. Next option?

Edited May 3 by NT80

untjim1995 · May 3

1 hour ago, NT80 said:

I agree the entire NCAA needs revised or taken over by another entity (not named SEC or Big10).

But to drop is down to G5 National Champion status is no different then 1-AA or FCS National Champ. No Thanks. Next option?

The next option is not what you want…to continue as a nomad that gets paid for OOC body bag games or play in a conference that gets no chance to ever win a title. Playing teams like the Power Teams in the B1G, SEC, most of the Big 12 and some of the ACC is not in the best interests of any G5 school anymore. The money is too much for them to ever let us fight fair.

meangreenfaninno · May 3

Jim speaks the truth here. I just am ready for it to happen.

NorthTexasWeLove · May 3

1 hour ago, untjim1995 said:

The next option is not what you want…to continue as a nomad that gets paid for OOC body bag games or play in a conference that gets no chance to ever win a title. Playing teams like the Power Teams in the B1G, SEC, most of the Big 12 and some of the ACC is not in the best interests of any G5 school anymore. The money is too much for them to ever let us fight fair.

I think patience is important here. The long game here is to wait until about 20 or so P5 programs have to come up for oxygen. They can't and won't be able to keep up.

Donor fatigue will eventually set in.... a drop in ratings will be met with that. Administrators will start looking for other options. The only option is us and our likings.

NT80 · May 3

1 hour ago, untjim1995 said:

The next option is not what you want…to continue as a nomad that gets paid for OOC body bag games or play in a conference that gets no chance to ever win a title. Playing teams like the Power Teams in the B1G, SEC, most of the Big 12 and some of the ACC is not in the best interests of any G5 school anymore. The money is too much for them to ever let us fight fair.

We are in the best conference now that we have ever been in since the old MVC days. We host conference games this season with Tulane, Tulsa, Army, etc and those are great. Right where we need to be. Much better than the old SLC or even SunBelt.

Playing some Power Teams are fun in both football and basketball, actually the highlight of the schedules! I look more forward to our away game with Texas Tech than a home game with SFA, and I think most fans do too.

wardly · May 3

We can't afford to be a P5 program even if we had the opportunity. When it comes to alumni giving we are the Lean Green, not the Mean Green.

untjim1995 · May 3

Sources: New college athlete compensation model may cost power schools $300M each over 10 years - Yahoo Sports

MeanGreenZen · May 3

The P2 schools make 5x our annual revenue. Five times! And most of their revenue is from media deals, ticket sales and donations while our revenue is mostly from student fees.

This article mentions a possible 22% revenue distribution to players (collectively bargained pro sports are closer to 50%.).

As far as I can tell, our revenue from all sources is running at around $44M annually so 22% is about $9.6M that would go to the players.

Where would this money come from? What would we have to cut to get it? Could we increase donations to cover that? I doubt it.

I don’t think that you can ask students to pay the salaries of other “students” playing sports. That is not right. I wouldn’t have an issue with the players being compensated via media deals, ticket sales and alumni donations. But at North Texas, that ain’t big bucks.

I just worry that the train has left the station on competing in football. Especially since there are teams in the P2 who can afford to pay their BACKUP quarterback more than our entire NIL budget.

And every good player on our football team last season has left our school for more money at other schools. At that point, why even pretend that we can compete for a national championship in football?

And if you can’t win, why not play something else? Let’s find a different level with a sustainable model that provides an opportunity to really compete.

Basketball is a different story because you can put all of your resources into a rotation of just 8 players. And I do believe that we can still compete at a national level in basketball.

NT80 · May 3

4 minutes ago, MeanGreenZen said:

And if you can’t win, why not play something else? Let’s find a different level with a sustainable model that provides an opportunity to really compete.

Basketball is a different story because you can put all of your resources into a rotation of just 8 players. And I do believe that we can still compete at a national level in basketball.

Ask UTA how that worked out for them.

NorthTexasWeLove · May 3

1 hour ago, NT80 said:

Ask UTA how that worked out for them.

Dunno, don't care.

We ain't them.

However, as for all resources into basketball, no. But a lot more, yes.

MeanGreenZen · May 3

1 hour ago, NT80 said:

Ask UTA how that worked out for them.

I’m not saying drop football. Football is important in Texas.
But we don’t need to pretend that we are the same level with teams with 5x our revenue who can and do take our best players any time they want.
We can’t afford to pay football players and everything else that comes with that. So we shouldn’t. And we should find a level for football that can accommodate that.
We CAN competitively pay 8 basketball players (maybe 16 if Title 9 makes us pay the women too).
I don’t like any of this. Just trying to figure out the best way we can position our athletic programs in this changing environment.

NT80 · May 3

7 minutes ago, MeanGreenZen said:

I’m not saying drop football. Football is important in Texas.
But we don’t need to pretend that we are the same level with teams with 5x our revenue who can and do take our best players any time they want.
We can’t afford to pay football players and everything else that comes with that. So we shouldn’t. And we should find a level for football that can accommodate that.
We CAN competitively pay 8 basketball players (maybe 16 if Title 9 makes us pay the women too).
I don’t like any of this. Just trying to figure out the best way we can position our athletic programs in this changing environment.

Times are changing with NIL and Portal. The players are being lured with $$. It may be time for hard contracts with buyouts to bind them to teams (schools), like NFL players. If a P5 wants them, then a buyout in the contract specifies what they owe the losing school. Same as with buying out a scheduled game. But there are more schools in FBS like us than not like us.

It's a normal reaction to want to spend more funds on a successful sport, like basketball is right now at NT. At some schools basketball is terrible but the football is good, or baseball is good. ECU fans couldn't wait to be done with basketball because their baseball was ranked pre-season.

But it's a chicken-egg thing. Why is our basketball now successful when it wasn't for many seasons with Benford and Trilli, even with good players? Better players, coaches? Yes to both. What is most important? Yes again to both. What needs to stay if one leaves. That would be the coach needs to stay. Coaching is the best investment a school can make....not money to players.

NT93 · May 3

It’s absolutely ridiculous that some college athletes make more than professional athletes. Makes me think of the old Sports Illustrated bit: Signs of the Apocalypse.

I stated this in another thread, but I strongly believe that the players are not the engine that drives the machine, it’s the universities.

Ive got a theory that I believe to be true and hopefully I am able to explain it in a way that makes sense. Let’s say that next year, all the talent dropped a level. So Alabama, etc. had the talent usually associated with UNT. UNT had the talent usually associated with SFA. SFA had the talent usually associated with aTm Commerce, etc., etc. Most fans won’t care and most won’t notice the drop off in talent. All most fans care about is their team winning. If we had the talent level of SFA, but we won the American, no one would care that we’re not as talented. I’ll even go a step further and say that must fans would think we were better. Bottom line is that the universities are the ones making the money, not the players. No one is forcing them to play. If they don’t want to play for FREE tuition, don’t play. There’s a line of people wanting to take their place. I was working 25-30 hours a week in a warehouse while going to college, so forgive me if I don’t have sympathy for people who have the opportunity to do something that I wasn’t quite talented enough to do. **That being said, I don’t have a problem with legitimate NIL**

ADLER · May 3

On 5/2/2024 at 6:10 PM, NT80 said:

I agree the entire NCAA needs revised or taken over by another entity (not named SEC or Big10).

But to drop us down to G5 National Champion status is no different then 1-AA or FCS National Champ. No Thanks. Next option?

I'm not sure they are going to offer us a choice.

untjim1995 · May 4

2 hours ago, NT93 said:

It’s absolutely ridiculous that some college athletes make more than professional athletes. Makes me think of the old Sports Illustrated bit: Signs of the Apocalypse.

I stated this in another thread, but I strongly believe that the players are not the engine that drives the machine, it’s the universities.

Ive got a theory that I believe to be true and hopefully I am able to explain it in a way that makes sense. Let’s say that next year, all the talent dropped a level. So Alabama, etc. had the talent usually associated with UNT. UNT had the talent usually associated with SFA. SFA had the talent usually associated with aTm Commerce, etc., etc. Most fans won’t care and most won’t notice the drop off in talent. All most fans care about is their team winning. If we had the talent level of SFA, but we won the American, no one would care that we’re not as talented. I’ll even go a step further and say that must fans would think we were better. Bottom line is that the universities are the ones making the money, not the players. No one is forcing them to play. If they don’t want to play for FREE tuition, don’t play. There’s a line of people wanting to take their place. I was working 25-30 hours a week in a warehouse while going to college, so forgive me if I don’t have sympathy for people who have the opportunity to do something that I wasn’t quite talented enough to do. **That being said, I don’t have a problem with legitimate NIL**

The problem is that boosters will always pay to get players and the Supreme Court made that legal. This will never go away. I truly believe that universities will own their team and play in leagues that features paid players, players that don’t even go to school. They’re employees. Texas could sign Vince Young to be their QB for 7 years to keep him. Same with the Aggies with Manziel. You get the idea. They’ll have coaches and GMs and be able to trade players, sign players to extensions, and develop players in minor league setups.

The rest of us are the ones that have the chance to actually play amateur college sports. Players are students who play for scholarships and stipends, all of which is governed by a NCAA type entity. And I believe that there will be a market for this level of play. I believe that watching traditional college sports will get eyeballs. Even if the Power 40 play their own semi-pro league.

MeanGreenZen · May 4

3 hours ago, ADLER said:

I'm not sure they are going to offer us a choice.

You can rebuild a college basketball rotation to contend at a high level in one year. That is just 8-9 players. And if you get lucky with 2-3 absolute monsters, you can make a run in any given season. Of course, then those 2-3 monsters will get poached by deeper pockets and you will have to start all over again. But still, it is possible.

But we can’t rebuild a college football two-deep in one year. That’s almost 50 players that we need to compete at a high level. And as has been demonstrated, any time we get football players who have any kind of success in the NIL era, they are gone quicker than you can say “Chandler Rogers”.

Another reason it is easier for us to compete in the NIL era in basketball is because that sport is dominated by guards. There are LOTS of talented guards available in college basketball and some of the very best can fall through the cracks and land with us for atleast a season.

And while many people would say that college football is dominated by quarterbacks (and that position is VERY important)… what really separates the elite college football programs from everyone else are the defensive linemen.

The supply of 18-24 year-old humans who weigh 300 pounds with the strength to take on multiple blockers while also having the speed to run down a quarterback is no where near the demand.

And these defensive linemen usually take a while to develop. But anytime a defensive linemen shows a hint of promise, he gets
funneled to the highest bidder and that won’t be us. Which means we will never be able to compete with the SEC or Big 10 in football.

Edited May 4 by MeanGreenZen

GMoney · May 4

On 5/3/2024 at 11:11 AM, untjim1995 said:

Sources: New college athlete compensation model may cost power schools $300M each over 10 years - Yahoo Sports

They'll pay this from their TV contracts that the G5 doesn't have.

NorthTexasWeLove · May 4

19 hours ago, untjim1995 said:

The problem is that boosters will always pay to get players and the Supreme Court made that legal. This will never go away. I truly believe that universities will own their team and play in leagues that features paid players, players that don’t even go to school. They’re employees. Texas could sign Vince Young to be their QB for 7 years to keep him. Same with the Aggies with Manziel. You get the idea. They’ll have coaches and GMs and be able to trade players, sign players to extensions, and develop players in minor league setups.

The rest of us are the ones that have the chance to actually play amateur college sports. Players are students who play for scholarships and stipends, all of which is governed by a NCAA type entity. And I believe that there will be a market for this level of play. I believe that watching traditional college sports will get eyeballs. Even if the Power 40 play their own semi-pro league.

There is no way the media machine allows this hypothetical new level of play to grow legs. And I agree with you, there is a market for it. But it will get minimal to no exposure and wilt away. The media is the driver of all things.

Imagine the sports media marketing G5 athletics like they've been doing with women's basketball. Hell or high water, they're trying to make women's basketball a thing.