DCTF ROF: CFB Expansion Talk

[Glory to the Green]

Thought this was an interesting podcast. Talks about future Power Conferences, etc. It’s a bit of a downer for those that long for the college football of 5-10 years ago. 
 

 

[Meangreen Fight]

Converting College Football to a post season ESPN TV event. 🤦🏽‍♂️.  It isn’t going to work out like they think it will.  It will make 70% of regular season games completely irrelevant.  And that 70% will include a lot of regular season games in the super conferences.  I point at College Basketball regular season as a cautionary story.  A few hard core fans of mid majors will still watch regular season games.  But most fans aren’t hard core for any program including the “Blue Bloods”.   What does Northwestern vs Purdue even mean if neither of them can get first or second place in the Big 10?  They aren’t going to the Big 10 title game.  And even if one of them is a playoff “wildcard” chances are pretty good they will rematch OSU, Michigan, or Penn State on the road and get blown out.  Contrast that with about 25 years ago.  A high rank Purdue vs high rank Northwestern regular season game had “playoff” atmosphere.  Because the winner would be in contention for a great bowl and Big 10 title just by going on and maybe lucking out and getting Michigan/OSU at home and beating them.  Now who knows if they will even get to play one of the top 3 ranked teams in their conference in 2024?   It’s stupid.

[untlynchka1]

On 3/25/2024 at 1:38 PM, Meangreen Fight said:

Converting College Football to a post season ESPN TV event. 🤦🏽‍♂️.  It isn’t going to work out like they think it will.  It will make 70% of regular season games completely irrelevant.  And that 70% will include a lot of regular season games in the super conferences.  I point at College Basketball regular season as a cautionary story.  A few hard core fans of mid majors will still watch regular season games.  But most fans aren’t hard core for any program including the “Blue Bloods”.   What does Northwestern vs Purdue even mean if neither of them can get first or second place in the Big 10?  They aren’t going to the Big 10 title game.  And even if one of them is a playoff “wildcard” chances are pretty good they will rematch OSU, Michigan, or Penn State on the road and get blown out.  Contrast that with about 25 years ago.  A high rank Purdue vs high rank Northwestern regular season game had “playoff” atmosphere.  Because the winner would be in contention for a great bowl and Big 10 title just by going on and maybe lucking out and getting Michigan/OSU at home and beating them.  Now who knows if they will even get to play one of the top 3 ranked teams in their conference in 2024?   It’s stupid.

Gotta disagree.  The whole bball argument isn’t really relevant.  They play roughly 30 games and have a 68 team field.  
 

yes, it won’t be as dramatic as, you lose more than one and your season is over, but the games still matter.  On top of that, by keeping even more teams in it later in the season will bring even more eyes to the games.  
 

and soooo much money. 

[ScreamingEaglesFan]

I saw this on Twitter/X by @TJAltimore and thought it was interesting. I really thought we’d rank higher but the methodology made sense.

 From his tweet the modeling methodology.

HOW THIS MODEL CALCULATES SCORES:

For each factor, a range of metrics were weighted based on expert input, evaluated based on quantifiable data, and scored with statistical comparisons.

Below is a quick overview of the methodology used in scoring. Please note that all individual data points are publicly available.

Any school officials, conf officials, clients, or media staff with questions are free to reach out, and I’d be happy to set up time walk you through relevant data / findings / benchmarks, or custom analysis that may be of interest.

🏈 FOOTBALL SUCCESS: 
(Most heavily weighted, by far)
– On-Field Success (Last 5 Year, Last 20 Years, All-Time)
– TV Attractiveness (2016-23 – Total Viewers, Avg. Viewers, Rated Games, Network Games)
– Fan Support and Facilities
– Resources & Investment

📊 MARKET POTENTIAL:
– Local Regional Market
– State Market
– Football Prominence Rank in State

🏆 ATHLETIC & HOOPS SUCCESS:
– Resources / Investment
– Scale (Teams / Athletes)
– On-Field Success (DC Points / Team NCs / Athlete NCs)
– Basketball Success (Last 5 Year, Last 20 Years, All-Time Tourney Success)
– Basketball Fan Support

🎓 INSTITUTIONAL RESOURCES & ACADEMIC SUCCESS:
– U.S. Institutional Rank (USN & WR)
– Global Rank (ARWU/SR + THE ranks)
– Research  (Single Campus / Aggregated)
– Resources (Budgets / Endowments)
– Size & Scale (Enrollment / Graduates / FTE Staff)
– Popularity (Applications / Yield Rate)
– Selectivity (Admit Rate)

✅ KEY BONUS FACTORS:
– AAU Membership
– State Flagship Status
– Land-Grant Status
– Elite Academic Status (Top 100 NatU / LAs)
– Established Power Conf. Member (Pre-2023)

🚨 NEGATIVE RISK DEDUCTIONS:
– Problematic School Scandals
– Control Risks and School Leadership Issues

Note that any conferences, schools, and networks will have different factors that matter to them, and they will particularly vary based on TV contract considerations, carriage fee arrangements, rivalries and connections, and distributions of current members. As such, this can only provide a general quantification for illustrative comparison.