Grading First Year Head Coaches (with two games to go)

[UNTLifer]

20 hours ago, SMU2006 said:

2024 - Florida State, BC, PITT, TCU, BYU, and CAL 

2023 - LA Tech, Charlotte, UNT, Tulsa, Navy

 

Hmmm which do you think will garner more interest?

2023 will garner higher attendance because you have visiting fans from schools not far ways, La Tech, UNT, Tulsa, to fill the stands.  Navy will also bring a large crowd to fill the stands.

2024, outside of TCU, you won't have many except for maybe BYU since the Mormons follow them.

[GMG_Dallas]

On 11/14/2023 at 6:25 PM, wardly said:

It appears the new Texas State coach has done a nice job using the transfer portal.

Texas State just lost to Arkansas State 77-31. I think we can simmer down on their coaching staff.

[NT93]

12 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Texas State just lost to Arkansas State 77-31. I think we can simmer down on their coaching staff.

Agreed.  They’ve beaten Baylor (3-7), Jackson St. (7-3), Nevada (2-8), Southern Miss (3-8), ULM (2-9), and Georgia Southern (6-4).  Not terribly impressive.

[DentonLurker]

15 minutes ago, NT93 said:

Agreed.  They’ve beaten Baylor (3-7), Jackson St. (7-3), Nevada (2-8), Southern Miss (3-8), ULM (2-9), and Georgia Southern (6-4).  Not terribly impressive.

I feel like what Colorado and Texas State  have proven is that the combo of a new coach and a roster reset buys you some element of surprise early, but once there’s film on you and by conference play you get to learn what a coaching staff and players are made of.

[wardly]

2 hours ago, NT93 said:

Agreed.  They’ve beaten Baylor (3-7), Jackson St. (7-3), Nevada (2-8), Southern Miss (3-8), ULM (2-9), and Georgia Southern (6-4).  Not terribly impressive.

On the other hand they did beat 2 teams with winning records and are bowl bound.

[MeanGreen22]

3 hours ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Texas State just lost to Arkansas State 77-31. I think we can simmer down on their coaching staff.

The teams that win and sustain winning develop a good culture then supplement talent deficiencies with the portal. They don’t fully form their team with portal merchants. It’ll be interesting to compare Morris v Kinne in 2-3 years. 

[GMG_Dallas]

13 minutes ago, MeanGreen22 said:

The teams that win and sustain winning develop a good culture then supplement talent deficiencies with the portal. They don’t fully form their team with portal merchants. It’ll be interesting to compare Morris v Kinne in 2-3 years. 

I agree. One area that has me optimistic is we've been playing a lot of true freshmen on defense. They'll get better and if they all stick together and keep progressing, we could have a really nasty group of DBs who have developed great chemistry in a year or two.

[Arkstfan]

1 hour ago, MeanGreen22 said:

The teams that win and sustain winning develop a good culture then supplement talent deficiencies with the portal. They don’t fully form their team with portal merchants. It’ll be interesting to compare Morris v Kinne in 2-3 years. 

Son and I had this discussion coming home from the TXST beating.

Go all in on the portal and you struggle to get a cohesive team. Don't go to the portal you get something like Clemson where you have talent gaps.

Butch Jones would've done horribly under the grading system. Our roster was in absolute chaos when he arrived. It was senior day today. There were FIVE and Blake Anderson had recruited two of them.

Of 77 points, 41 came from players signed from high schools 36 by transfers. Quarterback is a true freshman who was 14/17 for 196 yards, no TD's and no picks.

We struggled to start the season with a portal QB who didn't go through spring drills and an offensive line that had several portal guys because the OL is so young. Portal QB never meshed, got benched for the Sophomore we signed out of high school who did better but didn't have the "it" factor, gets benched for the true freshman who enrolled early to go through spring. Offensive line didn't get its act together until around game 8.

The whole roster thing is more chaotic than any NFL GM deals with. Look at Colorado. Thanks to the portal they are good to really good in a bunch of spots. Offensive line? Nope. They've not been able to get it to a good level.

[southsideguy]

off topic but did you see that NMSU pounded Auburn at Auburn for $1.8 million dollars.   Freeze must be on the hot seat.

[Arkstfan]

8 hours ago, southsideguy said:

off topic but did you see that NMSU pounded Auburn at Auburn for $1.8 million dollars.   Freeze must be on the hot seat.

Funnier because NMSU did it to him last year at Liberty 

[TreeFiddy]

On 11/15/2023 at 4:14 PM, VideoEagle said:

After checking 3 different coaching sites,  the answer is not with a 3-3-5. The whole idea of the 3-3-5 is it works as an alternative for teams with smaller, but relatively faster linemen. 

What do those sites say about which defense is best for smaller, slower linemen?

[keith]

Updated.  Along with the W-L % change I've added the # of wins change from 2022.  With one regular season game to go (Navy has two), of the 25 schools with 1st year staffs:

Ten are guaranteed to have more wins in 2023 than in 2022.

Nine are guaranteed to have fewer wins in 2023 than in 2022.

These 19 have set their fate.  Of the remaining six can, four can improve their y-o-y win total and two can hold serve equalling their 2022 win total.

Only four will go from winning records in 2022 to losing records in 2023 (Mississippi State, North Texas, Purdue and Cincinnati).  Welcome to the B12 Bearcats!  

 

[keith]

Final grades with the exception of Navy that has one more regular season game to play.  At the end of the day, it's all about results on the field, wins and losses.  As I said at the start, every team has a story and unique situation.  Some found new coaches because they had to, others because they chose to.  

 

 

[VideoEagle]

Thanks for doing this! I notice the pattern reported in a formal study from 2012 still holds. Teams with 6-6 or better records have about a 1 in 3 chance of improving their record with a new coach. This year, of the nine 6-6 or better teams that got new coaches, three improved their records from the year before.

It doesn't seem to matter if you are a P5 or G5, bringing in a new coach only has a 33% chance of improving the first year IF you are .500 or better! The study from 2012 looked back over eight years and found the same pattern. 

Edited December 5, 2023 by VideoEagle