Grading First Year Head Coaches (with two games to go)

[keith]

Every school is different and had their own unique circumstances surrounding hiring a new head football coach for 2023.  Lots of things go into how successful (or unsuccessful) a coach is during his first year at the helm and many of them are completely outside of his control.  However, he is the captain of the ship and is ultimately held accountable for both the good and the bad.  How has the decision worked out so far for each school that has a new head coach for 2023?  Here's a grading scale based on my simplistic methodology of comparing the final 2022 regular win % (no championship or bowl games considered) to the current 2023 win % through 10 games.  There are still two games to go, so the grades are not final and can still change.  So far, some have significant "turn-around" seasons, some are sort of, meh, treading water while others have had disastrous seasons.  I think I have identified all the first year coaches.  Some coaches were listed as interim.  The Michigan State coach is a good example and only has 8 games (1-7, ouch) under his belt.  Navy has only played 9 games so far.

I will update this at the end of the season, but here are the trending grades.  How would you grade these first year head coaches?

 

 

  

Edited November 13, 2023 by keith

[Big Z]

D- is right for Eric Morris 

Winnable schedule and easily could of gotten the team in a bowl game 

[El Paso Eagle]

D for disappointing defense 

 

Side note  - did any other team have to play the top 4 teams (Tulane, SMU, UTSA,& Memphis? besides us?

[keith]

On 11/7/2023 at 11:03 AM, keith said:

Correct.  As a whole the AAC is fairly weak this season and scheduling or luck of the draw has helped the current top teams in the conference.  The scheduling gods, on the other hand, were not kind to us.  Taking the current top 4 teams of Tulane, SMU, UTSA and Memphis, we play all 4.

Tulane plays 2 (Memphis - won and UTSA).

SMU plays 1 (Memphis). Hoping they look past us to that game.

UTSA plays 1 (Tulane).  Last regular season game.

Memphis plays 2 (Tulane - Lost and SMU).

I'm not even sure Tulane is really that good this year.  Their top-25 ranking is partly due to the reputation of the AAC being a strong conference.  If UTSA can get by Rice and South Florida and Tulane can win out, it will make for a nice end of season matchup for the AAC.

 

 

 

28 minutes ago, El Paso Eagle said:

D for disappointing defense 

 

Side note  - did any other team have to play the top 4 teams (Tulane, SMU, UTSA,& Memphis? besides us?

Not in the AAC.  I shared that in another topic.  See above.  As I said a lot goes into the success or lack of success of a head coach that he may not have any control over.  It would be exceedingly difficult to factor everything in so we are left with wins and losses as the ultimate barometer.

[SMU2006]

I think Morris will do very well at North Texas.  His offense is prolific and it takes time to get the personnel to run that defensive scheme.

Best of luck in The American.  Should be a fun league to watch from afar.

[Aquila_Viridis]

I would feel ALOT better about 3 conference wins than 1. It is too soon to grade. 

[Cr1028]

5 hours ago, El Paso Eagle said:

D for disappointing defense 

 

Side note  - did any other team have to play the top 4 teams (Tulane, SMU, UTSA,& Memphis? besides us?

Rice played the top 3 in succession. I don’t put Memphis in the same class as UTSA, SMU, and Tulane. I expect SMU to beat them this week.

[El Paso Eagle]

8 minutes ago, Cr1028 said:

Rice played the top 3 in succession. I don’t put Memphis in the same class as UTSA, SMU, and Tulane. I expect SMU to beat them this week.

Still trying to figure out how UTSA only got one of the four (Tulane)? Their conference schedule has to be the easiest in the AAC

Edited November 14, 2023 by El Paso Eagle

[NT93]

SMU can make a case for easiest schedule as well.

[Old Denton]

16 hours ago, SMU2006 said:

I think Morris will do very well at North Texas.  His offense is prolific and it takes time to get the personnel to run that defensive scheme.

Best of luck in The American.  Should be a fun league to watch from afar.

You'll be watching the ACC from afar.

[SMU2006]

29 minutes ago, Old Denton said:

You'll be watching the ACC from afar.

You mean when FSU comes to Ford next year? 

[RBP79]

Two losses away from a 'F'.

[VideoEagle]

@keith thanks for putting this list together. I'm really curious to see what the results are at the end of the year. 

I remember seeing a study that was published in 2012 or 2013 that went back 8 to 10 years comparing how firing a coach resulted in an improved record the next year. A lot of the trends from then still seem to be valid. For example, the worse the team was, the more likely there was immediate improvement. But for teams with a 7-5 record or better, firing the coach only resulted 1 out of 3 times in equalling or improving. Looking at this list, there are seven teams that were 7-5 or better last year and only 2 improved. Yes, firing a coach sometimes works immediately, but 2/3 of the time it doesn't. 

[MrAlien]

Based on how the process went of letting SL go and hiring Morris, a 3 win season is what I expected.   Timing was the issue, UNT hit the reset button in mid December, well into the transfer window, long after many other coaches had already been fired and hired.  Morris had to basically build a program from scratch in the spring.

[RBP79]

1 hour ago, MrAlien said:

Based on how the process went of letting SL go and hiring Morris, a 3 win season is what I expected.   Timing was the issue, UNT hit the reset button in mid December, well into the transfer window, long after many other coaches had already been fired and hired.  Morris had to basically build a program from scratch in the spring.

So Mosely and the Administration are responsible for this season debacle?

[keith]

2 hours ago, MrAlien said:

Based on how the process went of letting SL go and hiring Morris, a 3 win season is what I expected.   Timing was the issue, UNT hit the reset button in mid December, well into the transfer window, long after many other coaches had already been fired and hired.  Morris had to basically build a program from scratch in the spring.

At the time of the hire, I thought everyone was giddy and expectations were high.  I don't recall anyone (at the time of the hire) say we're doomed and won't win more that 3 games in 2023 because he wasn't hired a week earlier.  I think that feeling probably crept in after witnessing the exodus of a significant amount of talent to the portal *after* he was hired.

I'm not sure the timing has made a material difference anyway.  Excluding the November hires and interim or internal promotions, all the first year coaches were announced within a two week period.  It's hard to say that where a new coach fell within that two week period, by itself, had the most significant influence on his 2023 outcome.  There are just too many other factors involved.

I suspect Mosely already knew he was going to fire Littrell if he didn't win the conference championship game (at least I hope he already knew) and had a short-list handy that he was already working.  He may have even had preliminary discussions (if given permission) to assess the potential interest from his short-list.  Anyway, we don't know when the initial offer was made or formally accepted.  I'm sure there was some back-and-forth involved.

The announcement of firing Littrell was on 12/4.  If Morris was always his guy, it could have happened on 12/5 or anytime before the 13th, if timing was going to be the ultimate deciding factor between improving on a 7-5 record or regressing to a losing record.

Here's the list again sorted on the date the hiring was officially announced.

 

[wardly]

On 11/13/2023 at 12:47 PM, Big Z said:

D- is right for Eric Morris 

Winnable schedule and easily could of gotten the team in a bowl game 

Not with the players he has on defense. Also, why Tulsa a C- and UNT a D- when both have a 3&7 record?

[MrAlien]

I was very adamant last fall about not waiting until the end of the season to fire SL, they should have made the move in October, and started planning for 2023 at that time.  When SL left, he took what ever recruiting he had lined up with him, along with most of the senior coaching staff, and a few players left.  This wasn't an easy transition, they didnt pass the job to a OC or DC,  it didn't seem to be planned well at all, it was a sloppy reset.   

 

[Monkeypox]

2 hours ago, keith said:

At the time of the hire, I thought everyone was giddy and expectations were high.  

I don't really think this was the case. I remember a good number of people were underwhelmed with the hiring of Morris, especially after a season of speculation on a number of names, and Morris wasn't usually high on anyone's list, if present at all. People were really looking for an exciting hire this time around, and Morris wasn't it. And a number expressed concerns with Leach disciples and defensive expectations.

I seem to recall a lot of "okay, I guess." I had us at 4-5 wins, just because I think new coaches in new conferences might struggle, and didn't feel confident in our QB situation. But I'm still disappointed in HOW we've gotten here. 

But, once a hire's made, most people get on board because what else are you gonna do? And he speaks better than Littrell, so I think he did a pretty good job of making people feel better during some early season struggles. It's just that now the shine is off.

Edited November 14, 2023 by Monkeypox

[Udomann]

5 hours ago, VideoEagle said:

@keith thanks for putting this list together. I'm really curious to see what the results are at the end of the year. 

I remember seeing a study that was published in 2012 or 2013 that went back 8 to 10 years comparing how firing a coach resulted in an improved record the next year. A lot of the trends from then still seem to be valid. For example, the worse the team was, the more likely there was immediate improvement. But for teams with a 7-5 record or better, firing the coach only resulted 1 out of 3 times in equalling or improving. Looking at this list, there are seven teams that were 7-5 or better last year and only 2 improved. Yes, firing a coach sometimes works immediately, but 2/3 of the time it doesn't. 

So what you are saying is if we fire Morris now we are almost guaranteed a better record next year?

[keith]

1 hour ago, wardly said:

Not with the players he has on defense. Also, why Tulsa a C- and UNT a D- when both have a 3&7 record?

Here's a grading scale based on my simplistic methodology of comparing the final 2022 regular win % (no championship or bowl games considered) to the current 2023 win % through 10 games.  There are still two games to go, so the grades are not final and can still change.

Tulsa is coming off a 5-7 record in 2022 and we are coming off a 7-5 record.  They are only down 2 wins from last year while we are down 4...so far for both of us.  Since we play each other this week, one of us will improve our grade and the other will be graded lower.

[wardly]

1 hour ago, keith said:

Here's a grading scale based on my simplistic methodology of comparing the final 2022 regular win % (no championship or bowl games considered) to the current 2023 win % through 10 games.  There are still two games to go, so the grades are not final and can still change.

Tulsa is coming off a 5-7 record in 2022 and we are coming off a 7-5 record.  They are only down 2 wins from last year while we are down 4...so far for both of us.  Since we play each other this week, one of us will improve our grade and the other will be graded lower.

It appears the new Texas State coach has done a nice job using the transfer portal.

[UNTBill]

3 hours ago, wardly said:

Not with the players he has on defense. Also, why Tulsa a C- and UNT a D- when both have a 3&7 record?

Perhaps if our DC wasn't adamant about trying to fit a square peg in a round hole, our defense would have performed better.

[NT93]

16 minutes ago, UNTBill said:

Perhaps if our DC wasn't adamant about trying to fit a square peg in a round hole, our defense would have performed better.

If a coach is a 3-3-5 coach, he’s going to run a 3-3-5.  I don’t get how people don’t understand that.

[Monkeypox]

5 minutes ago, NT93 said:

If a coach is a 3-3-5 coach, he’s going to run a 3-3-5.  I don’t get how people don’t understand that.

Agreed. And it would be one thing if he had a bunch of experience in various systems, but this is a guy who's never been a DC and who's only been in a 3-3-5 since he was a GA at Pittsburgh in 2011. 

So it's not JUST that he's a 3-3-5 coach. He's ONLY a 3-3-5 coach.