UNT vs. SMU (11/10/23) Score Predictions

[Matt from A700]

SMU 56
UNT 20

[keith]

SMU - 95.6

UNT - 4.4

Oh, wait....never mind.

[RBP79]

First Half....Smut 35 NT 10

Final......Smut 59 NT 38

[diehardUNTfan]

I feel better about this years matchup better than most. SMU is a good team and we will need to play a full 4 quarters, not just two. If SMU plays how they did last week, I think it will be close. 

[97and03]

21 hours ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

Not sure why some of y’all think SMU is going to shut down our offense. Their defense is solid, but not good enough to hold us to 2-3 scores. I don’t think Preston Stone’s availability will really matter. I expect SMU to pound the rock either way. 

SMU- 40 

North Texas- 27

Did you do any research before posting this? SMUt is an elite defense. 

9 games in and SMUt only gives up 26 points a game. For comparison, UTSA gives up 10 more a game at 26, which is about what we scored against them, only thanks to a late TD. 
The book is out on us. Pressure, pressure, pressure. Rogers struggles with but - just not as much as our OL or coaching staff does. I only tuned in for a few plays last week but was horrified to see an empty backfield in a situation when it seemed obvious the defense was coming after the qb. Morris is too cute for his own good I guess. 

Edited November 6, 2023 by 97and03

[UNTcrazy727]

14 minutes ago, 97and03 said:

Did you do any research before posting this? SMUt is an elite defense. 

9 games in and SMUt only gives up 26 points a game. For comparison, UTSA gives up 10 more a game at 26, which is about what we scored against them, only thanks to a late TD. 
The book is out on us. Pressure, pressure, pressure. Rogers struggles with but - just not as much as our OL or coaching staff does. I only tuned in for a few plays last week but was horrified to see an empty backfield in a situation when it seemed obvious the defense was coming after the qb. Morris is too cute for his own good I guess. 

Apparently, I did more than you.

Have you seen the teams SMU has played? Outside of OU, TCU, and Rice their schedule has been a total cakewalk.  Those three teams average 31 pts/game against this "elite" defense. And Rice didn't even have JT Daniels in the 2nd half. 

The 6 FBS teams SMU has beaten this year have a combined record of 17-38. We will be the best offense they've seen since TCU. Just because they shut down 3 of the worst teams in the conference (Temple, ECU, Tulsa) doesn't mean they're going to do it to us. Our offense is light years ahead of those teams. 

And lets not act like we didn't shred UTSA's defense. We put up 456 yds and averaged almost 6 yds/play! The only reason we didn't score 35+ is we had 2 turnovers in the red zone. 

[DentonStang]

https://twitter.com/CFBONFOX/status/1721603360028074190?t=VHLciiwdV-sx_ZD7nei1Iw&s=19

 

Edited November 7, 2023 by DentonStang

[DentonStang]

3 hours ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

Apparently, I did more than you.

Have you seen the teams SMU has played? Outside of OU, TCU, and Rice their schedule has been a total cakewalk.  Those three teams average 31 pts/game against this "elite" defense. And Rice didn't even have JT Daniels in the 2nd half. 

The 6 FBS teams SMU has beaten this year have a combined record of 17-38. We will be the best offense they've seen since TCU. Just because they shut down 3 of the worst teams in the conference (Temple, ECU, Tulsa) doesn't mean they're going to do it to us. Our offense is light years ahead of those teams. 

And lets not act like we didn't shred UTSA's defense. We put up 456 yds and averaged almost 6 yds/play! The only reason we didn't score 35+ is we had 2 turnovers in the red zone. 

You aren't wrong, really. We've played nobody.  We have some really good parts....and some lacking parts. When the matchup is not favorable we struggle.

[Udomann]

3 hours ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

We will be the best offense they've seen since TCU.

We will also be the worst defense they've seen this year. Everything goes out the window when you can kill the clock and match down the field at will. Passing game is just gravy at this point. 

[MeanGreen_MBA]

47-38 UNT 

[Meangreen Fight]

On 11/5/2023 at 11:02 AM, emmitt01 said:

North Texas - 14

SMU - Whatever number they choose

Don't short change our side.   We will score at least 30 I think.  The question is what factor they will out score us by.  I am hoping it is only x 1.5 for a Unt 30 to SMU 45 and not x2 or x3.  Yes 90 points highly unlikely.  But in your 14 or 20 point/ for us scenario 42 - 60 points for them is very plausible.

[NT93]

16 hours ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

And let’s not act like we didn't shred UTSA's defense. We put up 456 yds and averaged almost 6 yds/play! The only reason we didn't score 35+ is we had 2 turnovers in the red zone. 

Thanks for bringing this up as I feel like it’s been swept under the rug while we bitch about how bad our defense is.  We outgained UTSA.  As I stated in another thread, the 3 turnovers hurt us more than the play of our defense.  
 

Also, UTSA started two possessions well into our territory because of two of the turnovers.  Those two plays were huge for a number of reasons.  
 

Probably the wrong thread for that HSO, but there it is anyway.

 

We’ve been close the past three weeks against what I believe to be comparable teams.  This week we finally break through.

UNT: 36

SMU: 35

Edited November 7, 2023 by NT93

[VideoEagle]

Our offense is good. The defense seems to be slowly learning to tackle. Each week we get better. It’s the last time we’ll play SMU for a while. 
I think we win by one score in a shootout. 

[dodgefan]

You have to credit our administration. According to people on this board, we will have a huge crowd, but, our PR people are really pushing this game hard. I heard the students have received notices and I've gotten emails from UNT pushing this game. Obviously, we want to make a great impression. Honestly, we have no reason not to take over the stadium, we have many more alums than SMU, in Dallas proper alone. The student enrollment difference, is enormous.

[keith]

8 hours ago, NT93 said:

Thanks for bringing this up as I feel like it’s been swept under the rug while we bitch about how bad our defense is.  We outgained UTSA.  As I stated in another thread, the 3 turnovers hurt us more than the play of our defense.  
 

Also, UTSA started two possessions well into our territory because of two of the turnovers.  Those two plays were huge for a number of reasons.  
 

Probably the wrong thread for that HSO, but there it is anyway.

 

We’ve been close the past three weeks against what believe to be comparable teams.  This week we finally break through.

UNT: 36

SMU: 35

I don't think we should get too excited about the UTSA game.  They are not really that good this year.  Their signature win is the 20-13 victory over a 6-3 Texas State at home the second game of the season.  UTSA's 6-3 record so far is due mostly to playing a weak schedule.  They have only 1 win against a team with a winning record (Texas State).  Other wins over 3-6 Temple, 3-6 UAB, 4-5 FAU, 1-8 ECU and 3-6 UNT.  They are playing a schedule that is almost inversely proportional to ours.  They also have losses against 4-5 Houston and 3-6 Army.  Besides Texas State, the only other team they played with a winning record is 7-2 Tennessee.  They are not a juggernaut this year.

[UNTcrazy727]

1 hour ago, keith said:

I don't think we should get too excited about the UTSA game.  They are not really that good this year.  Their signature win is the 20-13 victory over a 6-3 Texas State at home the second game of the season.  UTSA's 6-3 record so far is due mostly to playing a weak schedule.  They have only 1 win against a team with a winning record (Texas State).  Other wins over 3-6 Temple, 3-6 UAB, 4-5 FAU, 1-8 ECU and 3-6 UNT.  They are playing a schedule that is almost inversely proportional to ours.  They also have losses against 4-5 Houston and 3-6 Army.  Besides Texas State, the only other team they played with a winning record is 7-2 Tennessee.  They are not a juggernaut this year.

By this logic we shouldn't get excited about what we do in the SMU game. They don't have a win against a team with a winning record. And like UTSA, they were beaten by a less than average Big 12 team. 

Edited November 7, 2023 by UNTcrazy727

[NT93]

2 hours ago, keith said:

I don't think we should get too excited about the UTSA game.  They are not really that good this year.  Their signature win is the 20-13 victory over a 6-3 Texas State at home the second game of the season.  UTSA's 6-3 record so far is due mostly to playing a weak schedule.  They have only 1 win against a team with a winning record (Texas State).  Other wins over 3-6 Temple, 3-6 UAB, 4-5 FAU, 1-8 ECU and 3-6 UNT.  They are playing a schedule that is almost inversely proportional to ours.  They also have losses against 4-5 Houston and 3-6 Army.  Besides Texas State, the only other team they played with a winning record is 7-2 Tennessee.  They are not a juggernaut this year.

In fairness, Frank Harris was injured against TX St and didn’t play vs Army or Tennessee.  Also, since he’s been back they’ve been winning handily, though as you said, not against great teams.

[untbowler]

I just hope we score more pts than they punt they entire game. 

Defense and team come out flat like they have every 1Q could be behind 21-0 in 5 minutes. Expect SMU defenses to constantly blitz Rogers, since he never gets rid of the ball but rather tries to make plays

Would expect no mercy from SMU. 

63-24 SMU

Hope team uses these predictions for locker room fodder and come out ready to kick ass, but survey says .......

Edited November 7, 2023 by untbowler

[keith]

1 hour ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

By this logic we shouldn't get excited about what we do in the SMU game. They don't have a win against a team with a winning record. And like UTSA, they were beaten by a less than average Big 12 team. 

Correct.  As a whole the AAC is fairly weak this season and scheduling or luck of the draw has helped the current top teams in the conference.  The scheduling gods, on the other hand, were not kind to us.  Taking the current top 4 teams of Tulane, SMU, UTSA and Memphis, we play all 4.

Tulane plays 2 (Memphis - won and UTSA).

SMU plays 1 (Memphis). Hoping they look past us to that game.

UTSA plays 1 (Tulane).  Last regular season game.

Memphis plays 2 (Tulane - Lost and SMU).

I'm not even sure Tulane is really that good this year.  Their top-25 ranking is partly due to the reputation of the AAC being a strong conference.  If UTSA can get by Rice and South Florida and Tulane can win out, it will make for a nice end of season matchup for the AAC.

 

 

[97and03]

On 11/6/2023 at 10:52 PM, UNTcrazy727 said:

Apparently, I did more than you.

Have you seen the teams SMU has played? Outside of OU, TCU, and Rice their schedule has been a total cakewalk.  Those three teams average 31 pts/game against this "elite" defense. And Rice didn't even have JT Daniels in the 2nd half. 

The 6 FBS teams SMU has beaten this year have a combined record of 17-38. We will be the best offense they've seen since TCU. Just because they shut down 3 of the worst teams in the conference (Temple, ECU, Tulsa) doesn't mean they're going to do it to us. Our offense is light years ahead of those teams. 

And lets not act like we didn't shred UTSA's defense. We put up 456 yds and averaged almost 6 yds/play! The only reason we didn't score 35+ is we had 2 turnovers in the red zone. 

And we have only played three good teams yet we are giving up almost 37, so what is your point? The only team we truly contained was the aforementioned Temple. SMUt blanked them, btw, and hung 55 on them. They only gave up 28 to OU in Norman, which is on par with what we gave up against Navy. It’s apples and oranges. And they have six wins and we have three. They beat the teams on the schedule. We lost to FIU and Navy, ffs.
And can’t we stop talking about yards?? Yards without points are meaningless. We only managed 21, 24, 28, and 29 against four of our opponents that don’t have elite defenses with our “elite” offense. 🙄 douchebaging yards… SMUt averages 5 points a game more than our powerful offense at 40 a game, in case your research didn’t catch that. 
 

[jtm0097]

SMU 49

UNT 24

Me: There's a tear in my beer.

[UNTcrazy727]

20 minutes ago, 97and03 said:

And we have only played three good teams yet we are giving up almost 37, so what is your point? The only team we truly contained was the aforementioned Temple. SMUt blanked them, btw, and hung 55 on them. They only gave up 28 to OU in Norman, which is on par with what we gave up against Navy. It’s apples and oranges. And they have six wins and we have three. They beat the teams on the schedule. We lost to FIU and Navy, ffs.
And can’t we stop talking about yards?? Yards without points are meaningless. We only managed 21, 24, 28, and 29 against four of our opponents that don’t have elite defenses with our “elite” offense. 🙄 douchebaging yards… SMUt averages 5 points a game more than our powerful offense at 40 a game, in case your research didn’t catch that. 
 

My point is SMU's defense hasn't exactly shutdown good offenses like ours. I'm well aware our defense sucks. It's why I don't think we'll win. But our offense is certainly good enough to keep us in the game. 

It's odd to me so many here watched us go toe-to-toe with 3 of the best teams in the conference, yet think SMU is going to kill us. What exactly have people seen that makes them think SMU is that much better than Tulane, Memphis, and UTSA? I don't see it.

And if we had SMU's conference schedule we'd be sitting at 5 or 6 wins right now...Charlotte 3-6, ECU 1-8, Temple 3-6, Tulsa 3-6. and Rice 4-5. That's a combined record of 14-31! Compare that to our conference schedule...Navy 3-5, Temple 3-6, Tulane 8-1, Memphis 7-2, and UTSA 6-3. Combined record of 27-17. I'm willing to bet our defensive and offensive numbers would look a lot better if we got to play Charlotte, ECU, and Tulsa rather than Tulane, Memphis, and UTSA. 

[untjim1995]

18 minutes ago, ADLER said:

That's probably the most accurate prediction, and the could be even worse. 

I too see very little reason to attend this game.

If you go to this game, I feel bad for you…on many levels, actually

[diehardUNTfan]

SMU QB Preston Stone is in concussion protocol. Had to leave last weeks game. His status is questionable. Assuming he is out I say we pull off the upset. Major factor in my opinion. 

UNT 42

SMU 38

 

If he does play I don't think we get the w unfortunately. 

[golfingomez]

SMU - 57

UNT - 45

Golfingomez - betting the house on the over