What Should Have Happened Last Sepember

[Mike Jackson]

I just wanted to present this to show how I believe a program that really wanted to win would have conducted business last year:

On September 24, 2022 the Mean Green led by Seth Littrell lost to the Memphis Tigers 44-34.  What the final score doesn't tell you is that during the game the max probability of the Mean Green winning was under 30% for the entire game and hovered around 15% most of the time.   This lost capped off September that was 1-3 against FBS competition. Ostensibly, this was with Seth's job on the line for the 2022 season.  The Mean Green lost the 3 games by an average of over 26-point margin with the 10-point margin against Memphis being the best performance.   Now these are the facts with no embellishment.   Now consider what I think any rational fan of UNT Football should have responded favorably to following this loss.  Presented in timeline form.

• September 25, 2022; Seth Littrell is fired with some sort of negotiated buyout announcement/press release.  This is after behind the scenes discussions with the remainder of the staff.  A discussion between Phil Bennet, Patrick Cobbs and AD is coordinated to discuss the remainder of the season.   The interim job is offered to Phil with the caveat that Patrick Cobbs is the coach in waiting if they don't go outside the current staff to replace the Head Coach.  This is only out of respect for Bennett and hope that he will mentor Coach Cobbs.  Once that is settled a discussion with the team takes place announcing who the interim head coach is and that it is highly likely some of the current coaching staff is retained into the 2023 season.  Also, it is strongly suggested that if a head coach is hired from the the outside it would be a HUGE Name that will positively impact the culture and recruiting.

 

• September 26, 2022;  A press conference scheduled within 8 business days that will detail our strategy for targeting a new head coach

 

• September 26 - October 3 Coach Sanders is contacted with 3 key messages/questions.   1. We are UNT, and besides money these are the unique things we can provide Coach Sanders.  2. Here are the things we want to accomplish in years 3, 4, and 5 of your tenure.   3.  What do you need from us to lead us where we want go?  4. If we present you with what you need and want out of head coaching job, how long will you need to make a decision.  If he doesn't emphatically say no and gives a list of requests that could be met, you put together a budget and figure out the funding you need.  Get back to him and say will can do it but we need time to fund raise to get the money, but we need to be able to use your name behind the scenes to get there.   Pledge to do everything possible not to have the information get to the media acknowledging that leaks involving Coach Sanders is almost certainly impossible in the DFW area market. 

 

• October 5  - press conference simply stating we have had deep discussions with the current staff and are exploring opportunities with some the biggest names in coaching.  We can't go into specifics but any coach that isn't currently a P5 Head Coach or NFL Head Coach is in the candidate pool.  For the right coach we are setting the new precedent for football coaches at UNT.   The salary floor for the right coach is 3 million per year, which would be tied for the highest salary for an AAC team not currently scheduled to be out of the conference when we enter it. 

 

• October 27 Thursday after more than likely a loss to UTSA.   You announce that you have hired Patrick Cobbs or state that we have an outside candidate that has duties until the end of the regular season and we will announced at his discretion.  

With this timeline, you have taken your shot at Coach Sanders and all the other best candidates that might be interested.  And by the time you announce officially more people at least have the feeling you tired your best get a Head Coach to change the culture.  And not only that you have donors who can confirm that pursuit and the candidates you wanted to increase the budget for.   That way people are less skeptical of the current hire even if their resume dictates you only need to pay them around 1.5 million.   This also helps you in recruiting because by mid-November at the latest the next Head Coach would want to be announce so he can at least let him name early recruit to North Texas. 

 

 

[greenminer]

Excuse me sir, I find your information very useful. How may I subscribe to your newsletter?

[DentonLurker]

[SilverEagle]

Well, I'll agree with you on one thing. Coach "prime time" would certainly bring about a change.  I'm not sure I would use the word "culture" in the description, however.

[KingDL1]

Seth should have been fired after the loss Saturday, Sep. 18 2021, to UAB 40-6 at home and proved that after years and years of his BS he was not close to Head Coaching material. I would have loved to see a new coach get a full year on what was one of the easiest schedules we ever had to get his system in place for this year in a new conference. Not a late hire that was f'ed over by how Wren left things and the portal with little to no NIL with RV in charge of it. It's like the worst joke ever. Thank God most of that is fixed. 

Morris has used his would-be money to put together an actual recruitment staff like we have never seen that we will not even begin to see the benefits of until next year. 

[Cr1028]

On 9/5/2023 at 8:47 PM, Mike Jackson said:

I just wanted to present this to show how I believe a program that really wanted to win would have conducted business last year:

On September 24, 2022 the Mean Green led by Seth Littrell lost to the Memphis Tigers 44-34.  What the final score doesn't tell you is that during the game the max probability of the Mean Green winning was under 30% for the entire game and hovered around 15% most of the time.   This lost capped off September that was 1-3 against FBS competition. Ostensibly, this was with Seth's job on the line for the 2022 season.  The Mean Green lost the 3 games by an average of over 26-point margin with the 10-point margin against Memphis being the best performance.   Now these are the facts with no embellishment.   Now consider what I think any rational fan of UNT Football should have responded favorably to following this loss.  Presented in timeline form.

• September 25, 2022; Seth Littrell is fired with some sort of negotiated buyout announcement/press release.  This is after behind the scenes discussions with the remainder of the staff.  A discussion between Phil Bennet, Patrick Cobbs and AD is coordinated to discuss the remainder of the season.   The interim job is offered to Phil with the caveat that Patrick Cobbs is the coach in waiting if they don't go outside the current staff to replace the Head Coach.  This is only out of respect for Bennett and hope that he will mentor Coach Cobbs.  Once that is settled a discussion with the team takes place announcing who the interim head coach is and that it is highly likely some of the current coaching staff is retained into the 2023 season.  Also, it is strongly suggested that if a head coach is hired from the the outside it would be a HUGE Name that will positively impact the culture and recruiting.

 

• September 26, 2022;  A press conference scheduled within 8 business days that will detail our strategy for targeting a new head coach

 

• September 26 - October 3 Coach Sanders is contacted with 3 key messages/questions.   1. We are UNT, and besides money these are the unique things we can provide Coach Sanders.  2. Here are the things we want to accomplish in years 3, 4, and 5 of your tenure.   3.  What do you need from us to lead us where we want go?  4. If we present you with what you need and want out of head coaching job, how long will you need to make a decision.  If he doesn't emphatically say no and gives a list of requests that could be met, you put together a budget and figure out the funding you need.  Get back to him and say will can do it but we need time to fund raise to get the money, but we need to be able to use your name behind the scenes to get there.   Pledge to do everything possible not to have the information get to the media acknowledging that leaks involving Coach Sanders is almost certainly impossible in the DFW area market. 

 

• October 5  - press conference simply stating we have had deep discussions with the current staff and are exploring opportunities with some the biggest names in coaching.  We can't go into specifics but any coach that isn't currently a P5 Head Coach or NFL Head Coach is in the candidate pool.  For the right coach we are setting the new precedent for football coaches at UNT.   The salary floor for the right coach is 3 million per year, which would be tied for the highest salary for an AAC team not currently scheduled to be out of the conference when we enter it. 

 

• October 27 Thursday after more than likely a loss to UTSA.   You announce that you have hired Patrick Cobbs or state that we have an outside candidate that has duties until the end of the regular season and we will announced at his discretion.  

With this timeline, you have taken your shot at Coach Sanders and all the other best candidates that might be interested.  And by the time you announce officially more people at least have the feeling you tired your best get a Head Coach to change the culture.  And not only that you have donors who can confirm that pursuit and the candidates you wanted to increase the budget for.   That way people are less skeptical of the current hire even if their resume dictates you only need to pay them around 1.5 million.   This also helps you in recruiting because by mid-November at the latest the next Head Coach would want to be announce so he can at least let him name early recruit to North Texas. 

 

 

And Dickey should have been fired after the 35-0 ass-kicking conference mate Middle Tennessee put on us at home.

[MeanGreenGlory]

Hindsight is always 20/20. It’s challenging to fire a coach when they’re playing in the conference championship no matter which way you slice it. 

Coach Prime looks like he could have been a great fit for UNT now, but at the time he was an FCS coach with some success. At the time, Prime was a bigger gamble than other available candidates. I’m not saying he wouldn’t have done well here, I’m just saying it’s easier to draw that conclusion now after seeing what he did week 1 against TCU compared to all the unknowns at the time of (potential) hire last year.

I still believe in Morris & Co. and want them to have massive success ASAP here. That said, I can’t help but wonder how we would have showed up against Cal had Herman or Fuente been hired instead. I think we would have been more prepared.

[UNTLifer]

Anybody, besides me, sick of hearing about Coach "Prime"?  You don't get to nickname yourself.  He is Coach Sanders.

[MrAlien]

I agree, that they fired Seth at the wrong time...  If a program does not have a coach and staff in place prior to the transfer window opening up then they are throwing away the following season, this is exactly what UNT did. 

[untphd]

I am waiting to see what happens with Nebraska and I think most of the football watching world is too. The results will be in the tv ratings and they are going to go through the roof.

[KingDL1]

3 hours ago, MeanGreenGlory said:

I still believe in Morris & Co. and want them to have massive success ASAP here. That said, I can’t help but wonder how we would have showed up against Cal had Herman or Fuente been hired instead. I think we would have been more prepared.

I am behind Coach Morris as well. 

I beat the Seth firing Drum like crazy; I can't believe we waited that long. That is on Wren, in my opinion; he got paid to make those types of decisions and waffled. 

[GMG_Dallas]

Pump the brakes on Deion Sanders. The way Colorado beat TCU is not sustainable. Colorado averaged 1.6 yards per carry and had zero sacks. TCU averaged 7 yards per carry and had 4 sacks. Turnover battle was +1 Colorado, fine, they have the advantage there. Being dominated at the LOS will not get them much more than a few wins here and there.

It's one win... that they won by 3... with TCU missing a 43 yard FG in the first half. If they're hoping Shadeur Sanders completes 80% of nearly 50 passes with zero interceptions every game, that's not going to happen.

[Mike Jackson]

51 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Pump the brakes on Deion Sanders. The way Colorado beat TCU is not sustainable. Colorado averaged 1.6 yards per carry and had zero sacks. TCU averaged 7 yards per carry and had 4 sacks. Turnover battle was +1 Colorado, fine, they have the advantage there. Being dominated at the LOS will not get them much more than a few wins here and there.

It's one win... that they won by 3... with TCU missing a 43 yard FG in the first half. If they're hoping Shadeur Sanders completes 80% of nearly 50 passes with zero interceptions every game, that's not going to happen.

All granted but Sanders here with the recruits he could have pulled after proving himself at FCS, a team and coaching staff he puts together is competitive for a AAC title.   I disagree they were dominated at the LOS.  QB Sanders got time to throw dropped back more than 41 times and only sacked twice.  That is on the road with the crowd going crazy.  

[GMG_Dallas]

11 hours ago, Mike Jackson said:

All granted but Sanders here with the recruits he could have pulled after proving himself at FCS, a team and coaching staff he puts together is competitive for a AAC title.   I disagree they were dominated at the LOS.  QB Sanders got time to throw dropped back more than 41 times and only sacked twice.  That is on the road with the crowd going crazy.  

Sacked 4 times by my count. 8% of drop backs i believe. 2 yards per carry doesn't usually win game. Especially not when allowing 7 yards per carry yourself. I'm just saying that's not a winning formula. They won a single game. Yes, that talent would have done great things in the AAC. Your suggestion is valuing jimmys and joes over Xs and Os. It's been discussed on this board before and I don't disagree with you on that priority. I just want to see Deion consistently win in an environment where he doesn't tremendously outclass every opponent in talent level.

[Cr1028]

Why do we keep hashing this out? There was zero chance Deion Sanders was coming to a G5 school, period. This whole, if he brought in his 5 star transfers we would have been better, talk is ridiculous. Deion went to a HBCU because it gave him an angle to sell. There was no chance he was going to SFA or ACU. He sold the proud history of Doug Williams, Steve McNair, and other legendary HBCU players. From there, the next place to sell is P5. He had nothing, NOTHING, to gain in his coaching aspirations by coming to Denton other than DFW airport. Get this nonsense out of your heads. I guess we might as well complain about why we didn’t hire Chris Petersen and Urban Meyer for the job too since realism does not matter here.

Edited September 8, 2023 by Cr1028

[UNTLifer]

1 hour ago, Cr1028 said:

Why do we keep hashing this out? There was zero chance Deion Sanders was coming to a G5 school, period. This whole, if he brought in his 5 star transfers we would have been better, talk is ridiculous. Deion went to a HBCU because it gave him an angle to sell. There was no chance he was going to SFA or ACU. He sold the proud history of Doug Williams, Steve McNair, and other legendary HBCU players. From there, the next place to sell is P5. He had nothing, NOTHING, to gain in his coaching aspirations by coming to Denton other than DFW airport. Get this nonsense out of your heads. I guess we might as well complain about why we didn’t hire Chris Petersen and Urban Meyer for the job too since realism does not matter here.

[Rudy]

Regardless of if we would have gotten Deion, Seth should have been let go before the run in 2021, and at the latest, fired after UNLV.  

[untphd]

7 minutes ago, Rudy said:

Regardless of if we would have gotten Deion, Seth should have been let go before the run in 2021, and at the latest, fired after UNLV.  

I was at that UNLV game and man was that a beating.

[Pavlovs Eagle]

On 9/6/2023 at 8:06 PM, KingDL1 said:

that we will not even begin to see the benefits of until next year. 

There it is...

Whether you're right or wrong, its another year of talking about how next year will be better before its even Oct 1st of current year.

[Mike Jackson]

On 9/8/2023 at 5:17 PM, Rudy said:

Regardless of if we would have gotten Deion, Seth should have been let go before the run in 2021, and at the latest, fired after UNLV.  

Yep, and that is what everyone misses.  My post wasn’t just about Deion, it was about making a legit attempt to get the best coach available at the right time.  We weren't going anywhere with Seth.  And can never expect our stadium to get over 25k in attendance with a consistently striving for mediocre team.  I think the goal of this program should be minimally to stop losing money minimally.  It wasn't sustainable when they made the decision to go FCS and it will be that way again soon for this NIL, superleague version of CFB.