FIU Now Favored to Win

[MeanGreenGlory]

I just thought, “Let’s forget about Cal and start looking forward to stomping FIU.” 

That backfired. 

[meangreen11]

Yikes!

[TreeFiddy]

Seen way to many people chalking up the FIU game as a win.  Prepare to be nutkicked.  We looked like a bad high school team on Saturday against a very mediocre Cal team. 

Not sure coaching can overcome the roster and I place the blame for the roster 100% on the coaching staff and their apparent inability to judge talent.

Not sure how this staff could have made a worse first impression in their debut.  Utter failure in all three phases of the game on Saturday.

[Salsa_Verde]

[GMG_Dallas]

This is computer generated. UNT is currently a 12.5 point favorite in Vegas. It started at UNT -14 but moved, likely due to incoming bets favoring FIU to cover. If UNT doesn't win by 2 TDs, it'll be a failure of a trip.

[UNTLifer]

On 9/4/2023 at 11:52 AM, TreeFiddy said:

Seen way to many people chalking up the FIU game as a win.  Prepare to be nutkicked.  We looked like a bad high school team on Saturday against a very mediocre Cal team. 

Not sure coaching can overcome the roster and I place the blame for the roster 100% on the coaching staff and their apparent inability to judge talent.

Not sure how this staff could have made a worse first impression in their debut.  Utter failure in all three phases of the game on Saturday.

Are you predicting a FIU win?

[NT80]

ESPN:

Line: UNT -12.5

Over/Under: 52

[TreeFiddy]

10 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

Are you predicting a FIU win?

Sure, why not?  I said as much in the score prediction thread.  I saw nothing out of this team on Saturday to expect them to be able to go on the road and beat anyone. 

On the surface FIU seems to have similar talent and also has an extra game under their belt.  At best I would say it seems like a toss up.  

I get that we handled them the last 2 times we played, but were 1-5 the 6 games prior.  Absolutely no reason in my mind to think we are just going to walk over them. 

I certainly hope that Cal is somehow way better than I think they are and that game will be an anomaly, but my eyes are telling me that we are not a very talented team, especially on defense. 

If our defense is as inept as it looked like on Saturday, as soon as teams get tape on us even the 'bad' teams will pick us apart.  

I will most certainly be taking FIU and the points as my top pick in my weekly football pool.  Hope I am wrong but history is on my side.  

There is probably a good reason that Morris kept practices and scrimmages closed...

[meangreenbob]

57 minutes ago, TreeFiddy said:

Sure, why not?  I said as much in the score prediction thread.  I saw nothing out of this team on Saturday to expect them to be able to go on the road and beat anyone. 

On the surface FIU seems to have similar talent and also has an extra game under their belt.  At best I would say it seems like a toss up.  

I get that we handled them the last 2 times we played, but were 1-5 the 6 games prior.  Absolutely no reason in my mind to think we are just going to walk over them. 

I certainly hope that Cal is somehow way better than I think they are and that game will be an anomaly, but my eyes are telling me that we are not a very talented team, especially on defense. 

If our defense is as inept as it looked like on Saturday, as soon as teams get tape on us even the 'bad' teams will pick us apart.  

I will most certainly be taking FIU and the points as my top pick in my weekly football pool.  Hope I am wrong but history is on my side.  

There is probably a good reason that Morris kept practices and scrimmages closed...

Not so sure it’s only the team that lacks talent. I think this entire coaching staff got exposed on Saturday. 
 

[GMG_Dallas]

If our guys make their tackles against Cal, the game is very different. The coaches weren't out-schemed, the players didn't execute. I recorded the game and watched the first half today. The amount of times our guys had their RBs at or behind the LOS and just missed or didn't wrap up resulting in a huge gain is insane. Same with offense not seeing open receivers and going down on arm tackles. The mistakes can be corrected.

[billyboy85]

Ouch 

[TreeFiddy]

12 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

If our guys make their tackles against Cal, the game is very different. The coaches weren't out-schemed, the players didn't execute. I recorded the game and watched the first half today. The amount of times our guys had their RBs at or behind the LOS and just missed or didn't wrap up resulting in a huge gain is insane. Same with offense not seeing open receivers and going down on arm tackles. The mistakes can be corrected.

If you were a true glutton for punishment you would have watched the 2nd half.  Twice.

[GMG_Dallas]

25 minutes ago, TreeFiddy said:

If you were a true glutton for punishment you would have watched the 2nd half.  Twice.

I will tomorrow if I have time.

[tmjerm]

56 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

If our guys make their tackles against Cal, the game is very different. The coaches weren't out-schemed, the players didn't execute. I recorded the game and watched the first half today. The amount of times our guys had their RBs at or behind the LOS and just missed or didn't wrap up resulting in a huge gain is insane. Same with offense not seeing open receivers and going down on arm tackles. The mistakes can be corrected.

Eg, their very first play from the LOS.  Had him pinned and whiffed. 

[GMG_Dallas]

44 minutes ago, tmjerm said:

Eg, their very first play from the LOS.  Had him pinned and whiffed. 

Yes but looking at things positively, those issues can be fixed. Tackling doesn't require a complete scheme adjustment or guys not understanding their role. It's about execution.

[tmjerm]

1 hour ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Yes but looking at things positively, those issues can be fixed. Tackling doesn't require a complete scheme adjustment or guys not understanding their role. It's about execution.

Totally agree with you. I actually did the same thing you did this evening in watching the first half.  We are definitely a small front defensively and that part can’t be fixed immediately but they really were flying around and reading plays well.  Just wrap up and finish the play and be disciplined enough not to overrun the play.  I thought Earle mostly looked great in the first half until he started pressing a little bit after the run game started really failing.  Our OLine development has got to happen fast.  Our secondary and linebackers need to fill a lot better.  But you’re right overall that so much of this was execution rather than scheme.  Many will say that’s still on Eric and staff and they wouldn’t be wrong, but you make adjustments  based on the things you observe and they have a chance to do that now.  I was really enjoying my Saturday at DATCU until I wasn’t and then I got pretty pissed off when it felt like the team lost its fight.  But I certainly felt better about it after actually sitting down to watch.  We are so deep at skill positions on offense and Stone can really make the throws.  Now let’s play some defense and block.  I think we will have a chance. 

[Rudy]

[GMG_Dallas]

6 hours ago, tmjerm said:

Totally agree with you. I actually did the same thing you did this evening in watching the first half.  We are definitely a small front defensively and that part can’t be fixed immediately but they really were flying around and reading plays well.  Just wrap up and finish the play and be disciplined enough not to overrun the play.  I thought Earle mostly looked great in the first half until he started pressing a little bit after the run game started really failing.  Our OLine development has got to happen fast.  Our secondary and linebackers need to fill a lot better.  But you’re right overall that so much of this was execution rather than scheme.  Many will say that’s still on Eric and staff and they wouldn’t be wrong, but you make adjustments  based on the things you observe and they have a chance to do that now.  I was really enjoying my Saturday at DATCU until I wasn’t and then I got pretty pissed off when it felt like the team lost its fight.  But I certainly felt better about it after actually sitting down to watch.  We are so deep at skill positions on offense and Stone can really make the throws.  Now let’s play some defense and block.  I think we will have a chance. 

Hard to see some of that stuff live. Watching a TV replay with the ability to rewind really helps just as it does for the players and staff.

Stone made some great throws. He also had a couple near great throws. He had some reads that could have been better. I recall a 3rd down play in the 2nd quarter where Maclin and I believe Isaiah Johnson are both wide-open (Maclin underneath and Johnson to his right going towards the sideline) and instead he throws an incomplete pass in coverage to the middle of the field. Same with a couple times where he climbed the pocket and found himself with open field between him and the nearest linebacker but instead of using his legs, he threw an incomplete pass. On one hand I'm glad he's not just bailing the passing game but on the other hand the focus needs to be converting 3rd downs unless somebody is wide-open down field. That stuff will be corrected by watching film but for a QB making his first FBS start and first start in 2 years, I think there's reason to be optimistic he'll quickly improve.

[Got5onIt]

6 hours ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Hard to see some of that stuff live. Watching a TV replay with the ability to rewind really helps just as it does for the players and staff.

Stone made some great throws. He also had a couple near great throws. He had some reads that could have been better. I recall a 3rd down play in the 2nd quarter where Maclin and I believe Isaiah Johnson are both wide-open (Maclin underneath and Johnson to his right going towards the sideline) and instead he throws an incomplete pass in coverage to the middle of the field. Same with a couple times where he climbed the pocket and found himself with open field between him and the nearest linebacker but instead of using his legs, he threw an incomplete pass. On one hand I'm glad he's not just bailing the passing game but on the other hand the focus needs to be converting 3rd downs unless somebody is wide-open down field. That stuff will be corrected by watching film but for a QB making his first FBS start and first start in 2 years, I think there's reason to be optimistic he'll quickly improve.

 

Couldn't crack the lineup under Seth. Does that worry you?

[NorthTexasWeLove]

15 hours ago, GMG_Dallas said:

If our guys make their tackles against Cal, the game is very different. The coaches weren't out-schemed, the players didn't execute. I recorded the game and watched the first half today. The amount of times our guys had their RBs at or behind the LOS and just missed or didn't wrap up resulting in a huge gain is insane. Same with offense not seeing open receivers and going down on arm tackles. The mistakes can be corrected.

This just isn't true. A play there and a play there, it is. Generally, we were not in alignment position to make plays. It's as if the DC was playing roulette with his own box. And the linebacker tech, whew, real bad. 

[DentonLurker]

15 minutes ago, Got5onIt said:

 

Couldn't crack the lineup under Seth. Does that worry you?

I guess if you think players don’t get better or that the current staff isn’t better at development of QB’s it could worry you.

[GMG_Dallas]

20 minutes ago, Got5onIt said:

 

Couldn't crack the lineup under Seth. Does that worry you?

Seth was coaching for his job, not to develop his next QB for the following 2-3 years. Jason Bean is starting at a Big 12 school, went toe to toe with TCU last year, beat a ranked OK State, and accounted for 17 Total TDs to 4 interceptions and 1400 yards of total offense on 64.4% completion percentage in 5 Big 12 games. I'm not worried about Seth's poor starting QB choices.

[GMG_Dallas]

13 minutes ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

This just isn't true. A play there and a play there, it is. Generally, we were not in alignment position to make plays. It's as if the DC was playing roulette with his own box. And the linebacker tech, whew, real bad. 

Linebacker technique was horrible and resulted in many huge gains. That said, without watching the second half which was out of reach quick, the first half had guys in position to make stops at critical times that would have changed TD scoring drives. On the 4th and 2, the RB was hit at about the LOS. A solid tackle has UNT take over on downs. Instead they score. Next drive on 1st and 10, Ott gets 9 yards. First defender was at about 2-3 yards of LOS but missed the tackle. A 2nd and 7 or 8 would have likely been a passing down. Instead they run straight up the middle and he goes for 66 which should never happen either and on replay looked like better effort could have had him stopped for 3-4 yards. Safeties were set deep. Hindsight is easy to say that was a bad decision. 2nd and short is often when aggressive playcallers dial-up a deep ball. Didn't happen, they went with the run, and guys weren't where they needed to be to stop a run up the gut. This play likely never happens at 2nd and long. First offensive snap was a 41 yard gain with 2 guys missing Ott within the first few yards of the LOS. Just a few big plays that should have never happened with better execution.

I'm not worried about the 2nd half simply because getting blownout like that is the result of fatigue. That's what happens when your defense is on the field for 52 snaps in 1 half and the opposing defense is on the field for 53 snaps in the entire game.

I'm not saying there were never any plays that were completely blown from the scheme or guys playing out of position. I'm saying there were critical moments when the game was in reach where guys were at the right spot but failed to execute.

[NorthTexasWeLove]

2 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Linebacker technique was horrible and resulted in many huge gains. That said, without watching the second half which was out of reach quick, the first half had guys in position to make stops at critical times that would have changed TD scoring drives. On the 4th and 2, the RB was hit at about the LOS. A solid tackle has UNT take over on downs. Instead they score. Next drive on 1st and 10, Ott gets 9 yards. First defender was at about 2-3 yards of LOS but missed the tackle. A 2nd and 7 or 8 would have likely been a passing down. Instead they run straight up the middle and he goes for 66 which should never happen either and on replay looked like better effort could have had him stopped for 3-4 yards. Safeties were set deep. Hindsight is easy to say that was a bad decision. 2nd and short is often when aggressive playcallers dial-up a deep ball. Didn't happen, they went with the run, and guys weren't where they needed to be to stop a run up the gut. This play likely never happens at 2nd and long. First offensive snap was a 41 yard gain with 2 guys missing Ott within the first few yards of the LOS. Just a few big plays that should have never happened with better execution.

I'm not worried about the 2nd half simply because getting blownout like that is the result of fatigue. That's what happens when your defense is on the field for 52 snaps in 1 half and the opposing defense is on the field for 53 snaps in the entire game.

I'm not saying there were never any plays that were completely blown from the scheme or guys playing out of position. I'm saying there were critical moments when the game was in reach where guys were at the right spot but failed to execute.

Sure. But you know they were having our boundary corner as the walk up 9 tech for almost the entire 1st Q. He's 5'8" 175lbs. Like... Spavital was so dumb to drop back and throw it once. Watching it live I was just asking myself, "My laws, what are we doing." Watching more, I was just in disbelief. Just because a body is in position, doesn't make it the right body. Just because a safety is havig plays funneled into his lap doesn't mean he will be able to stalk, track ans tackle from.10-15 yards away in open field over and over. That's a very difficult ask. 

[GMG_Dallas]

28 minutes ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

Sure. But you know they were having our boundary corner as the walk up 9 tech for almost the entire 1st Q. He's 5'8" 175lbs. Like... Spavital was so dumb to drop back and throw it once. Watching it live I was just asking myself, "My laws, what are we doing." Watching more, I was just in disbelief. Just because a body is in position, doesn't make it the right body. Just because a safety is havig plays funneled into his lap doesn't mean he will be able to stalk, track ans tackle from.10-15 yards away in open field over and over. That's a very difficult ask. 

Your gripe is with the 3-3-5 as a whole then. Nothing to do with the guys being in the right or wrong position but rather with a scheme that requires athletic safeties who can make the right read and finish tackles in the open field. I don't know if we have enough of those players for the scheme to work. That's my issue.