Cal vs North Texas Predictions

[UNTLifer]

I appreciate our visiting fan’s perspective of his university’s ball club. They were 4-8/2-7 last year, so their experience is not of being a winning program.  They beat UC-Davis, AZ, UNLV and Stanford. They also gave up a lot of points. Honestly, I think this game is a toss up but the heat will be the difference. I stand by my position. 

[BearInsider]

Cal's defense was its worst under Wilcox last year by far.   The Bears lost three of their best DL to injury and three starters in the secondary went down as well.   More pointedly, the depth behind them wasn't good.   Cal lost only one defensive starter and added a lot of big time talent in the portal.  Plus, the entire DL returned including the three injured players.   

Here's a preview of UNT from Cal's best online site - wonder if it's at all accurate?  UNT Preview

[emmitt01]

14 minutes ago, BearInsider said:

Cal's defense was its worst under Wilcox last year by far.   The Bears lost three of their best DL to injury and three starters in the secondary went down as well.   More pointedly, the depth behind them wasn't good.   Cal lost only one defensive starter and added a lot of big time talent in the portal.  Plus, the entire DL returned including the three injured players.   

Here's a preview of UNT from Cal's best online site - wonder if it's at all accurate?  UNT Preview

Interesting paragraph from that UNT preview:

”New UNT head coach Eric Morris has made a point of letting the press know that he believes the weather will be to the Mean Green’s advantage and sources tell us that even after ESPN and Cal agreed to push the kickoff into the evening, Morris vetoed the idea.”

Also, the preview calls Littrell possibly our most successful coach in history. 🙄

[Mean Green 93-98]

21 minutes ago, BearInsider said:

Here's a preview of UNT from Cal's best online site - wonder if it's at all accurate?  UNT Preview

That looks pretty accurate overall.  At this point, most of us don't know any more than he does.

[GMG_Dallas]

58 minutes ago, emmitt01 said:

Interesting paragraph from that UNT preview:

”New UNT head coach Eric Morris has made a point of letting the press know that he believes the weather will be to the Mean Green’s advantage and sources tell us that even after ESPN and Cal agreed to push the kickoff into the evening, Morris vetoed the idea.”

Also, the preview calls Littrell possibly our most successful coach in history. 🙄

That caught my eye as well. Morris wants those Cali kids to feel the heat.

While I know it's been said they have many players from Texas and other hot states, as does every football program, many of them have not practiced or regularly played in the Texas heat in a few years. They aren't conditioned for it anymore. I still think it'll be an advantage. Run often in the first half to wear them down, keep it close, and the good guys win it in a close game.

[NT93]

UNT  27

Cal   24

[UNTLifer]

We have a running back room that goes six deep with Adaway, Ragsdale, Adeyi, Johnson, Jackson and Farrar running behind our strongest position group with pretty good depth.  Wear their ass down, by rotating the RB's and OL with a mix of a short to mid-range passing attack.  Keep their defense on the field and control the clock.  They will be wiped by halftime.  They could spend a week in Death Valley and still not acclimate.  I have lived in west TX for the past thirteen years and there is something to the dry heat.  Coming back to DFW during the summer, the heat + humidity is a whipping.  Those poor Bears will be singing "Goin' Back to Cali" in no time.  I stand by my prediction.

Edited August 28, 2023 by UNTLifer

[PlummMeanGreen]

15 hours ago, emmitt01 said:

I don’t care if you’re from Texas, or even a place hotter, unless you have been in this heat working out for the past month or so you are not ready for it
 

Yep.   True.
Game should still be moved to PM because it’s not too late to do so. 
Nevertheless, I’ll be there for the 3pm kick to show visual & vocal support. 
GMG!

[BluffCity901]

NT - 31

CAL - 27

Best of luck on the season!

GTG!

[southsideguy]

I believe in a level playing field.  Again I will suggest we water down the cal sidelines to help cool the turf  for them.  It is the right think to do😉.

I will also remember when Busch field got its astro turf .   They were playing the Cubs on hot day in STL.   The ground crew did this to "cool" the field.  They teams had outfields collapsing in the outfield during the game from the heat and humidity.  

Edited August 28, 2023 by southsideguy

[Green Crazy]

38-28, Cal.

While I think the heat helps us, I don't think it helps enough. Our defense while more acclimated has less depth and our starters will need to be replaced by backups for a breather plenty throughout the game.  They probably beat us with the run and tire us out in the end.

[97and03]

16 hours ago, BearInsider said:

Cal fan here.   Really looking forward to coming out to Denton and watching the game in person next week.  A few things about this Cal team:

• The Bears transfer portal class was top 20 nationally
• Cal's defense will be its strength.  10 of the 11 projected starters have started games in the past.  The only three newcomers are a safety who was the MWC DPOY last year, a CB who was an all MWC performer last year and RS freshman ILB whose the best athlete on the Defense.   1st team AP12 ILB Jackson Sirmon leads the group.   
• If the defense has a weakness, it's the pass rush.   The strength will be in the secondary where the Bears have four pre-season All-Conference players and a freshman AA is now relegated to a back up role
• Offensively, Sam Jackson will be the starter at QB and he's a first-time starter and clearly the biggest unknown on the team.  He was a high four-star recruit, he's undersized at 5'11, he's got a big arm and is very athletic.  How he plays this year will likely dictate the type of season the team will have
• The OL is the weakest unit on the roster.  The hope is that former UNT OC and OL coach Mike Bloesch will be a difference maker.  All five players are former starters so there's a lot of experience but last year this group was truly bad.   They are better-run blockers than pass protectors
• Our RB Jaydn Ott is a difference maker.  Got some Freshman AA recognition last year.  He's the team's clear-cut star and can do it on the ground and as a receiver
• The WR corps is very deep and experienced.  A lot of big WRs.  Some speed but only one proven difference-maker in Jeremiah Hunter
• TE group are more blockers than receivers.  Former UNT TE Alberding has locked down the back up role and will play a lot
• This is Justin Wilcox's deepest and most talented team.  That may be damning with faint praise.   And his ability as a HC is suspect given the mediocre record.   He hired Jake Spavital as the OC who struggled as a HC but was among the best OC/QB coaches in the Pac 12 and a lot is expected from Mike Bloesch

It's hard as an outsider to handicap UNT.   New coaching staff with quite a bit of personnel turnover.   Feels like the MG have a strong RB room, a solid WR room and that the OL may be the best unit on the field?   Can your new starting QB run - is a he a dual threat?   

Thanks for the insights. Your guesses about our strengths are pretty good. Our starting QB can definitely run. In fact, he was brought in situationally last season as a change of pace to primary to run the ball as a quasi-wildcat qb. He has worked on his accuracy and won the starting job at the end of fall camp, much like yours. Our backup should also play, although we don’t know exactly how much. Also dual threat and accurate passer. 

[UNTLifer]

1 hour ago, Green Crazy said:

38-28, Cal.

While I think the heat helps us, I don't think it helps enough. Our defense while more acclimated has less depth and our starters will need to be replaced by backups for a breather plenty throughout the game.  They probably beat us with the run and tire us out in the end.