Oregon State, Washington State not expected to decide conference fate until post Labor Day -

[wardly]

On yesterday's podcast Trey Smith,who follows the AAC, said that the PAC 2 has not yet given up on keeping the conference alive by adding AAC programs now and MWC later.

[NT80]

45 minutes ago, wardly said:

On yesterday's podcast Trey Smith,who follows the AAC, said that the PAC 2 has not yet given up on keeping the conference alive by adding AAC programs now and MWC later.

False hope.   They don't want to lose any remaining assets or the brand.  But they have limited time to add members for 2024, adjust schedules, find sponsors, settle lawsuits, adjust conference staff, etc, etc,  won't happen.

[NT80]

I saw another quote from the Colorado State AD that said OSU and WSU may want initially to just work out a scheduling alliance with the MWC without merging/joining.   Pac schools also are interested in maintaining some rivalries, and scheduling closer, regional OOC games after they all leave for other conferences.

[El Paso Eagle]

57 minutes ago, NT80 said:

I saw another quote from the Colorado State AD that said OSU and WSU may want initially to just work out a scheduling alliance with the MWC without merging/joining.   Pac schools also are interested in maintaining some rivalries, and scheduling closer, regional OOC games after they all leave for other conferences.

Don't they have to have eight teams to remain a conference? Could they join the WCC for non-football sports and play football independently? I'm not sure how they can stay in the Pac unless they take in the WCC teams, and they all play non-football sports as the Pac.

** In this unique case (a conference dissolving) the NCAA might grant them a one or two-year window to try and work something out, but I hope not. 

Edited September 6, 2023 by El Paso Eagle

[NT80]

10 minutes ago, El Paso Eagle said:

Don't they have to have eight teams to remain a conference? Could they join the WCC for non-football sports and play football independently? I'm not sure how they can stay in the Pac unless they take in the WCC teams, and they all play non-football sports as the Pac.

I believe there is a waiver period of like two years.  Not sure how two schools can be a conference for very long, lol.  They each have an excellent chance of finishing at least second in conference every season!

[El Paso Eagle]

Just now, NT80 said:

I believe there is a waiver period of like two years.  Not sure how two schools can be a conference for very long, lol.  They each have an excellent chance of finishing at least second in conference every season!

Personally, I hope they join the MWC. More stability for the American.

[Arkstfan]

22 minutes ago, El Paso Eagle said:

Don't they have to have eight teams to remain a conference? Could they join the WCC for non-football sports and play football independently? I'm not sure how they can stay in the Pac unless they take in the WCC teams, and they all play non-football sports as the Pac.

** In this unique case (a conference dissolving) the NCAA might grant them a one or two-year window to try and work something out, but I hope not. 

Rules give them a two year grace period. They can play 2024-25 and 2025-26 as an FBS league then they have to comply in 2026-27.

[El Paso Eagle]

24 minutes ago, Arkstfan said:

Rules give them a two year grace period. They can play 2024-25 and 2025-26 as an FBS league then they have to comply in 2026-27.

Will be interesting to see how they fill their schedule.

[Dannymacfan]

43 minutes ago, El Paso Eagle said:

Personally, I hope they join the MWC. More stability for the American.

Why would that possibly provide us more stability?   Them going to mountain will only strengthen mountain who in turn will poach AAC no?

[El Paso Eagle]

Just now, Dannymacfan said:

Why would that possibly provide us more stability?   Them going to mountain will only strengthen mountain who in turn will poach AAC no?

If they do decide to rebuild the Pac there is always the chance they could pull teams from the American. That is the stability I was referencing. If they do go to the MWC, IMO we need to add some more schools. Not sure if Army will join. No more CUSA schools. While they might not fit the normal American model, I would like to see App State, JMU, and Texas State added to get to 16. 

[VideoEagle]

1 hour ago, Dannymacfan said:

Them going to mountain will only strengthen mountain who in turn will poach AAC no?

Why would you think the Mountain is going to poach the AAC? Or why anyone from the AAC would want to jump the Mountain? 

If the MWC adds Wazzu and OSU, they are at 13 members. After SMU leaves the AAC is at 13. Adding schools divides the pie into smaller pieces unless you add a school that has a strong enough national draw to increase the size of the money pool more than the loss in dividing it more ways. I don't think anyone in either conference does that. 

Then, you have several MWC members who have repeatedly said they do NOT want to expand the conference into the Central time zone unless they can get the "right" schools. Those mentioned were Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Colorado State, AF, Wyoming, and at least one more don't want to have a conference mate east of the Rockies. 

Look at it the other way - who from the AAC is going to want to go to the MWC? Yes, a lot would want to have gone to the old PAC 12, but that's NOT who they would be joining. The MWC is a lateral move at best with increased costs that would NOT be offset by increased TV revenue.     

 I just don't see a real reason for anyone in the American to jump to the Mountain!

 

Edited September 6, 2023 by VideoEagle

[El Paso Eagle]

1 hour ago, VideoEagle said:

 I just don't see a real reason for anyone in the American to jump to the Mountain!

Sadly logic and what is reasonable don't seem to be in play as much when it comes to conference realignment. 

[VideoEagle]

1 hour ago, El Paso Eagle said:

Sadly logic and what is reasonable don't seem to be in play as much when it comes to conference realignment. 

But there is a logic - the pursuit of money!

There is a pursuit of more money in all but 1 of the moves to the B1G, Big XII, and ACC. And in that one, SMU hopes to leverage their current cash into staying P4 after the next big consolidation. 

An AAC team moving to the Mountain will create LESS money per team while doing nothing to increase the chances of becoming the G5 that gets into the playoffs. That's why a raid by the Mountain on the America is very unlikely. 

[NT80]

51 minutes ago, VideoEagle said:

But there is a logic - the pursuit of money!

There is a pursuit of more money in all but 1 of the moves to the B1G, Big XII, and ACC. And in that one, SMU hopes to leverage their current cash into staying P4 after the next big consolidation. 

An AAC team moving to the Mountain will create LESS money per team while doing nothing to increase the chances of becoming the G5 that gets into the playoffs. That's why a raid by the Mountain on the America is very unlikely. 

There are reason$ the MWC would be interested in UNT, UTSA, and Rice.  Media Markets and more conference exposure for recruiting.  Also, strike a blow to your main peer G5 conference competition.  Limited CFP spots call for making yourself more valuable.

The MWC does recruit Texas and the Central Time Zone.  Part of the failure of the  PAC was their time zone isolation...games starting too late for the rest of the country to see them (rankings) or the media to care much about their games (less $$).  16 is a better conference number than 13.

[VideoEagle]

1 hour ago, NT80 said:

16 is a better conference number than 13.

Only if the money is a LOT better. As the American's pursuit of Wazzu and OSU showed, it was not enough to make it worth adding them to our conference. With 13 or 14, you don't have to have divisions, but by 16 you do. And with divisions, you have a strong chance you won't have the two strongest teams from your conference in the title game which cuts your chances for one of those coveted CFP slots. 

The Mountain has never, ever been a conference that chased markets; that was CUSA and then to a certain degree the American. 

ESPN has made it pretty clear they will give a bit of a bump, but not enough to even cover the extra travel costs. Without a lot of money that I don't see coming in, I don't see any reason for anyone in the American to jump. 

[NT80]

47 minutes ago, VideoEagle said:

Only if the money is a LOT better. As the American's pursuit of Wazzu and OSU showed, it was not enough to make it worth adding them to our conference. With 13 or 14, you don't have to have divisions, but by 16 you do. And with divisions, you have a strong chance you won't have the two strongest teams from your conference in the title game which cuts your chances for one of those coveted CFP slots. 

The Mountain has never, ever been a conference that chased markets; that was CUSA and then to a certain degree the American. 

ESPN has made it pretty clear they will give a bit of a bump, but not enough to even cover the extra travel costs. Without a lot of money that I don't see coming in, I don't see any reason for anyone in the American to jump. 

I agree any adds by any conference would have to make financial sense to all.  We don't know that Wazzu and OSU ever wanted to be added to the AAC.  They listened to Aresco but it was never disclosed what the deal involved.  Perhaps they only wanted the cream of the AAC to join them?  Only they know.  

The MWC's media deal will be up for renewal I believe in 2-3 years, well before the AAC's deal expires.  Could that be a factor in the MWC seeing what the numbers would be for more markets then?   We don't know.  WSU and OSU also won't like being confined to a perceived lower-level like the MWC "as-is".  If they help it grow and expand then they will feel empowered instead of orphaned.

[El Paso Eagle]

In two to three years, or sooner, WSU and OSU will not be the same programs they are today. Any way this ends up, they will bring in a lot less money and probably have to make some difficult downsizing moves. 

[NT80]

1 hour ago, El Paso Eagle said:

In two to three years, or sooner, WSU and OSU will not be the same programs they are today. Any way this ends up, they will bring in a lot less money and probably have to make some difficult downsizing moves. 

Yes, similar to Smut not asked to come along into the Big12.   They lost 40 years and had to buy their way back up. The days of Wash, Oregon, UCLA, USC, etc filling their home stadium will be gone.   Oregon State just finished a $178mil stadium expansion and renovation....just in time to host San Jose, Utah St, Wyoming, etc.

[Arkstfan]

On 9/6/2023 at 12:54 PM, El Paso Eagle said:

Will be interesting to see how they fill their schedule.

It's fun to watch when it doesn't impact you 🙂

[Arkstfan]

On 9/6/2023 at 1:02 PM, Dannymacfan said:

Why would that possibly provide us more stability?   Them going to mountain will only strengthen mountain who in turn will poach AAC no?

I don't buy this.

The money just isn't there to make it work, besides if the money DID work, who would MWC poach? Charlotte? FAU? Give me a break. If they could make the money to work coming east, first place they are coming is Texas.

[El Paso Eagle]

3 minutes ago, Arkstfan said:

I don't buy this.

The money just isn't there to make it work, besides if the money DID work, who would MWC poach? Charlotte? FAU? Give me a break. If they could make the money to work coming east, first place they are coming is Texas.

UTEP would accept in a heartbeat, but that doesn't give you a Texas footprint. It seems they were interested in UNT and UTSA right before we joined the American, but I don't think that will be in play. Texas State? I don't see how that would make sense unless they were also going to try for, say, La Tech.

[Arkstfan]

On 9/6/2023 at 3:41 PM, El Paso Eagle said:

Sadly logic and what is reasonable don't seem to be in play as much when it comes to conference realignment. 

Realignment has two streams.

Make us better. There is cold calculation done and no one is in a hurry. The numbers get crunched and everyone looks at what the added team(s) do to their expenses and compare that to what it does to the revenue stream. ACC has been toying with going after Pac-12 schools since the USC and UCLA announcement and even then struggled to get to a 3/4ths vote because the headache and expense vs revenue differential didn't make it a no-brainer.

Survival. Weird stuff happens when a conference goes into survival mode. CUSA presidents get together to debate UNT vs UNT+FIU and come out with six new members. Sun Belt authorizes a committee to issue binding invites thinking they will be talking to WAC schools who are in crisis and instead the committee invites Georgia State. Big East presidents get together and invite Tulane without consulting the AD's who find out and throw fits and show the presidents photos of the facilities the school they just admitted helping fuel the Catholic schism that broke the league.

[Arkstfan]

Just now, El Paso Eagle said:

UTEP would accept in a heartbeat, but that doesn't give you a Texas footprint. It seems they were interested in UNT and UTSA right before we joined the American, but I don't think that will be in play. Texas State? I don't see how that would make sense unless they were also going to try for, say, La Tech.

Well yeah UTEP would love to be back with New Mexico but the money so far doesn't work.

Texas State? Yeah you can squint and look at the San Antonio and Austin sprawl starting to move into San Marcos take the fact that they are in the Austin market per the TV folks but they gotta have more Saturdays like last Saturday.

[Arkstfan]

15 hours ago, El Paso Eagle said:

In two to three years, or sooner, WSU and OSU will not be the same programs they are today. Any way this ends up, they will bring in a lot less money and probably have to make some difficult downsizing moves. 

It's gut check time for Washington State and Oregon State fans.

Pullman is so freaking remote, I'm not sure it has a huge impact. They are 4 1/2 hours from any major pro team, yeah 8 miles to Idaho who is now FCS and 90 minutes to Gonzaga the nearest highly successful athletic program. Not sure that fans don't just go ahead and show up because there's nothing else to do.

[El Paso Eagle]

1 minute ago, Arkstfan said:

Texas State? Yeah you can squint and look at the San Antonio and Austin sprawl starting to move into San Marcos take the fact that they are in the Austin market per the TV folks but they gotta have more Saturdays like last Saturday.

They do seem to be heading in a direction where they are willing to invest, but time will tell how much and the results. It might come down to how much, if at all, a footprint in Texas means to the MWC.