American Athletic Conference 2023 college football preview

[JT Hammons]

Defense

In looking at the defense, I would hope that UNT is willing to run the rock. The Mean Green defense was objectively bad, allowing 6.1 yards per play and 31.7 points per game. While those numbers don’t seem all that awful, UNLV racked up 576 yards of offense, and all but one Conference USA team (FIU) had well over 400 yards against them. Even without Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF, the AAC is a much deeper, more explosive offensive conference than C-USA.

Three of the top four tacklers are gone on defense, including KD Davis and Larry Nixon, who each eclipsed 100 stops. Top sack man Mazin Richards (7.5) and top defensive back Ridge Texada (15 pass breakups) are the anchors of Matt Caponi’s unit, as he takes the DC role for the first time after coaching defensive backs at Iowa State. It sure looks like the UNT defense would welcome some ball control.

Outlook

The Mean Green have an early bye week and a rough month of November with UTSA, SMU on a short week, Tulsa with a first-year head coach who could have a much-improved team by then, and UAB. If things come together quickly for Morris’s bunch, the first part of the schedule features winnable games, but if not, this looks like a number that they’ll chase most of the season. The win total is 6.5 with Under juice, and my projection is 6.32, with that weak schedule doing some heavy lifting.

Pick: Under 6.5

LINK: https://www.vsin.com/cfb/american-athletic-conference-2023-college-football-preview/