Pac-2?

[Arkstfan]

Writer for BearInsider believes ACC is voting again Tuesday and this time Cal and Stanford get in.

If Oregon State and Washington State are the last cats standing seems pretty improbable that they raid a conference but rather join an existing one that claims to be the Pac-12 for the purposes of keeping the units earned.
 

It seems a tall order for them to produce enough new TV revenue to offset the cost and hassle of travel for AAC. Football charters to Washington State tend to either fly in and out of Lewiston, ID which means taking off with a short load of fuel (short runway) and then flying to Boise or Salt Lake to refuel and go on or bus 90 minutes to Spokane to fly. Oregon State a bit easier with 45 minute bus ride from the Eugene airport. Just can't imagine too many people east of the rockies caring or recognizing Oregon State, WSU bit better known but obviously Leach days are over.

https://bearinsider.com/forums/2/topics/116011/1

[MeanGreenTeeth]

Meh.  Maybe, but I saw something about a Tuesday vote on Twitter earlier and the source seemed...sketchy.  I tend to think there is a lot of circular information floating it's way through these boards. Regardless, I was under the impression that conference additions had to be pretty much unanimous in practice even if technically not required.  Would the ACC really move ahead if multiple schools opposed?

Edited August 21, 2023 by MeanGreenTeeth

[outoftown]

If those two get into the ACC the upside for the AAC s that it will be stable and can probably develop. The downside is that this would make it very likely that WSu and OSU join the MWC over the AAC. The risk with that is that the MWC could reasonably close the gap to the AAC financially and otherwise, which if the CFP reduces to 5 conference bids is a real negative (and i fear that is likely to happen after 2026). In that case the AAC really has to develop to take that spot on the regular. Otherwise it risks not losing it only rarely to a Belt/MWC/Liberty as would be the case with the current setup.

Edited August 21, 2023 by outoftown

[meangreenbob]

Washington St and Oregon St are actually G5 schools that because of location and members needed at a point in time were fortunate enough to be included in the PAC 12. 
 

Their location and time zone make no sense for them to be added to the AAC. 
 

Should they join the MWC it really won’t affect the position of the AAC in conference ranking because few people watch late games on the West coast. 
 

If this were not so then the PAC 12 with its heavy hitters would still be in existence. 
 

The AAC presidents need to understand the advantage they have right now and focus on building the AAC into an elite conference. 
 

But alas. Common sense and simple logic are attributes seldom found in todays society. 

Edited August 21, 2023 by meangreenbob

[Wag Tag]

Central time zone is a big deal if you want to establish your school brand! I hope they come to the AAC, and maybe next year we go and get a few MWC schools. We then have a coast to coast conference!

[outoftown]

2 hours ago, Wag Tag said:

Central time zone is a big deal if you want to establish your school brand! I hope they come to the AAC, and maybe next year we go and get a few MWC schools. We then have a coast to coast conference!

While I am absolutely worried about the opportunity cost of letting the MWC have them... do you really want a coast to coast conference? Clearly it is the hot fad right now. however, I am not so sure it really adds all that much in terms of tv value in the future and it definitely adds cost in terms of travel and in terms of student-athlete time. AND I am worried it will reduce the already tenuous identity finding of the AAC completely. Cohesive identity vs lack of identity is pretty much why the sun belt managed to catch up to (and now overtake) C-USA and why so many schools left, not just for the AAC. I think many of those that now came to the AAC could have developed much faster and way beyond what they have become now, had they been in a more cohesive conference. i hope the AAC will become that for UNT. But I am not sure adding the west coast really facilitates it. Also, just because the B1G and B12 now are trying to do the 16+ conference memebrs thing, i am not sure they will fare so much better at it in the end than the WAC, where strife eventually left half the programs behind, and I think this could easily also happen to a 16+ member AAC.

But...as I said, i am worried about the opportunity cost of letting the MWC have them (even though I can see bobs point above on them really being good G5s that had lucked out too).

Edited August 21, 2023 by outoftown

[NT80]

9 hours ago, Arkstfan said:

Writer for BearInsider believes ACC is voting again Tuesday and this time Cal and Stanford get in.

If Oregon State and Washington State are the last cats standing seems pretty improbable that they raid a conference but rather join an existing one that claims to be the Pac-12 for the purposes of keeping the units earned.
 

It seems a tall order for them to produce enough new TV revenue to offset the cost and hassle of travel for AAC. Football charters to Washington State tend to either fly in and out of Lewiston, ID which means taking off with a short load of fuel (short runway) and then flying to Boise or Salt Lake to refuel and go on or bus 90 minutes to Spokane to fly. Oregon State a bit easier with 45 minute bus ride from the Eugene airport. Just can't imagine too many people east of the rockies caring or recognizing Oregon State, WSU bit better known but obviously Leach days are over.

https://bearinsider.com/forums/2/topics/116011/1

I do believe the ACC will vote again soon, just to finally put this item to rest one way or another.  I hope Cal and Stanford get voted in (be careful what you ask for!) as it is best for the AAC to not lose members to a fake Pac rebuild.

[southsideguy]

The bright side for them if they remain the PAC 2 they have a 50/50 chance of winning a conference championship.

[NM Green]

I feel the PAC rebuild gets less likely every week. It seems like some serious heavy lifting and would need to be led by a program who wants nothing to do with its potential members. 

The PAC had a great run. Put her in the graveyard with the SWC and look forward.

Beat Cal. 
GMG

[MeanGreen22]

This would honestly be the 1A outcome that UNT/AAC would be rooting for. You could then go to OrState and WSU for a "merger", keep the Pac alive in some Frankenstein way, then go hunting for MWC schools in 2025.

[UNTLifer]

New PAC12 rumors I never heard:

Washington St

Oregon St

Idaho

Idaho St

Montana

Montana St

San Francisco (starting football in 2026)

Pepperdine

Cal St Long Beach

Weber St

Azusa Pacific

SMU (forgoes the first 5 years of revenue)

 

[ColoradoEagle]

46 minutes ago, MeanGreen22 said:

This would honestly be the 1A outcome that UNT/AAC would be rooting for. You could then go to OrState and WSU for a "merger", keep the Pac alive in some Frankenstein way, then go hunting for MWC schools in 2025.

This.

It seems like the goal should be to get these two*, SDSU, Boise State, CSU, and AFA. At that point, you have three unofficial pods for scheduling.

*This assumes adding these schools increases the value of the contract overall, and not just pro rata. If pro rata, then the AAC should not expand.

Edited August 21, 2023 by ColoradoEagle

[Wag Tag]

3 hours ago, outoftown said:

While I am absolutely worried about the opportunity cost of letting the MWC have them... do you really want a coast to coast conference? Clearly it is the hot fad right now. however, I am not so sure it really adds all that much in terms of tv value in the future and it definitely adds cost in terms of travel and in terms of student-athlete time. AND I am worried it will reduce the already tenuous identity finding of the AAC completely. Cohesive identity vs lack of identity is pretty much why the sun belt managed to catch up to (and now overtake) C-USA and why so many schools left, not just for the AAC. I think many of those that now came to the AAC could have developed much faster and way beyond what they have become now, had they been in a more cohesive conference. i hope the AAC will become that for UNT. But I am not sure adding the west coast really facilitates it. Also, just because the B1G and B12 now are trying to do the 16+ conference memebrs thing, i am not sure they will fare so much better at it in the end than the WAC, where strife eventually left half the programs behind, and I think this could easily also happen to a 16+ member AAC.

But...as I said, i am worried about the opportunity cost of letting the MWC have them (even though I can see bobs point above on them really being good G5s that had lucked out too).

To expand the brand of the AAC and UNT coast to coast would be a huge plus. You would be able to have games the whole day in the different time zones. TV will have one less option for eyes with the PAC gone. I’m sure our commish has discussed this with the the TV ( maybe streaming) powers to be and it should be a plus for more $$$!

[Rudy]

4 hours ago, UNTLifer said:

New PAC12 rumors I never heard:

Washington St

Oregon St

Idaho

Idaho St

Montana

Montana St

San Francisco (starting football in 2026)

Pepperdine

Cal St Long Beach

Weber St

Azusa Pacific

SMU (forgoes the first 5 years of revenue)

 

That would be hilarious.

[eagle73]

On 7/27/2023 at 8:27 PM, ScreamingEaglesFan said:

https://www.lightthetowercollective.com

 

On 8/18/2023 at 6:24 PM, greenminer said:

Stanford's brand will die.

Will this be a tragic hero story, in the world of college sports? They have an incredible brand - but a lot of it is based on their academia.  What we are seeing, as this becomes a story of B10/SEC vs. the rest of us, is that money/viewership is the driving factor here...not academia.

Sorry Stanford, you're probably not getting into the B10, and thus...your brand will die.  They will have to make some hard choices here and, honestly, it probably won't be fun to watch (unless you hate them).

 

5 hours ago, southsideguy said:

The bright side for them if they remain the PAC 2 they have a 50/50 chance of winning a conference championship.

They can finish no worse than second.  But, first a place is still next to last.

[Arkstfan]

Some interesting takes.

I struggle to see how adding Oregon State to AAC is notably different from adding Fresno. Based on fan attention Boise State is likely more value to AAC than Washington State.

Cal is obviously a freaking mess in athletics but they are a bigger brand in name recognition than UCF and Stanford even bigger than they are. Those a schools worth traveling for. Oregon State and Washington State?

Network TV didn't broadcast more than half of programming in color until 1965. Oregon State won the Pac-8 in 1964 and only once (2000) since and they split that title with Washington who had beaten them. Washington State won titles in 1917,  1930, 1997, and 2002 and split the last two. 

Neither gets presidents giddy about academic prestige. MWC with just the two of them isn't getting a big bump in TV money.

[Tommy Gadberry]

1 hour ago, Arkstfan said:

Oregon State and Washington State?

They are so terribly exposed now for living for so long off of the bigs.  And if you think about it, USC and UCLA probably saw Oregon St and WSU were real drags on them…  Oregon State is no different than SFA if you ask me.

[NT80]

1 hour ago, Tommy Gadberry said:

They are so terribly exposed now for living for so long off of the bigs.  And if you think about it, USC and UCLA probably saw Oregon St and WSU were real drags on them…  Oregon State is no different than SFA if you ask me.

Oregon State has a rabid fan base in their area and just completed a $170M stadium renovation.   Washington St is also a known brand.  Both would benefit the AAC, just by being "former" P5's.

[keith]

No telling how this all turns out and I don't want to do anything to boost SMU's already inflated ego, but one has to wonder where the AAC would be right now, if they worked as hard for the betterment of the conference as they have for the betterment of themselves.  There are good conference mates and poor conference mates.  I'm not suggesting that schools should not look out for their own best interest, but sometimes they need to realize that those are often aligned with their current conference mates.  One thing is obvious, no one ever wants to find themselves sharing a foxhole with SMU.

[MeanGreenTeeth]

Wouldn't be the worst thing to have an excuse to take a trip to Corvallis.   I don't know that any of our fans would be excited by a trip to Pullman though.

[GMG_Dallas]

11 hours ago, NT80 said:

Oregon State has a rabid fan base in their area and just completed a $170M stadium renovation.   Washington St is also a known brand.  Both would benefit the AAC, just by being "former" P5's.

This is the benefit of riding P5 coattails for decades. You build a local fanbase by consistently bringing in marquee opponents and occasionally beating them. If UNT spent the past 30 years in the Big 12, we'd have the same or better.

The reality is, more than half the Power conference schools are just G5 schools who were given opportunity. If there's any sport in the USA that needs equal media profit sharing across all members, it's the FBS. If they'd help the "smaller" programs develop, you'd have Oregon States everywhere. Instead, those fanbases will die off when the programs are inevitably cut off from the P2. An Oregon state fan will never be an Oregon fan. A Washington State fan will never be a Washington fan. The same goes for programs everywhere. The FBS is close to collapsing if those in charge keep letting media money decide the future of college sports.

[Rudy]

14 hours ago, Tommy Gadberry said:

They are so terribly exposed now for living for so long off of the bigs.  And if you think about it, USC and UCLA probably saw Oregon St and WSU were real drags on them…  Oregon State is no different than SFA if you ask me.

[UNTLifer]

13 hours ago, NT80 said:

Oregon State has a rabid fan base in their area and just completed a $170M stadium renovation.   Washington St is also a known brand.  Both would benefit the AAC, just by being "former" P5's.

They're going to have trouble filling that up now.

[akriesman]

Oregon State has come along way from those horrible teams of the 70's, 80's and 90's.  They were the one major program that the 1AA guys really had a chance to beat up on.

Correct me if I am wrong. But, I think we beat Oregon State the first year we moved up from 1AA (mid 90's).  We were terrible, but they were worse. I remember the game at Fouts.

[NT80]

5 hours ago, GMG_Dallas said:

This is the benefit of riding P5 coattails for decades. You build a local fanbase by consistently bringing in marquee opponents and occasionally beating them. If UNT spent the past 30 years in the Big 12, we'd have the same or better.

The reality is, more than half the Power conference schools are just G5 schools who were given opportunity. If there's any sport in the USA that needs equal media profit sharing across all members, it's the FBS. If they'd help the "smaller" programs develop, you'd have Oregon States everywhere. Instead, those fanbases will die off when the programs are inevitably cut off from the P2. An Oregon state fan will never be an Oregon fan. A Washington State fan will never be a Washington fan. The same goes for programs everywhere. The FBS is close to collapsing if those in charge keep letting media money decide the future of college sports.

Well said.   If Oregon State goes from hosting USC, UCLA, Utah, Arizona St, et al to hosting Utah St, Wyoming, San Jose, etc then yes those rabid fans will become less rabid just by their new conference opponents not meaning as much.