I am starting to think this may really be happening!

[NorthTexasWeLove]

Just now, Cerebus said:

Ok, what level of team can get FORCED to join a conference?  You have to get people to buy in. Right now I think the PAC thinks expanding the PAC is a better option that joining any G5.  And I think I can lure enough teams to do that.

 

Probably why they will go after AAC schools first. 

 

Possibility of keeping A5 status in PAC, versus for sure losing it?

I think we get it. You want to see UNT in CUSBELT 3.0, but no rendition of the PAC will hold onto their A5 status. No chance. As in 0%. Other commissioners, notely the most powerful one of them all Greg Sankey, has said exactly that. It's getting dropped, only a matter of time. 

[UNTcrazy727]

5 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

Ok, what level of team can get FORCED to join a conference?  You have to get people to buy in. Right now I think the PAC thinks expanding the PAC is a better option that joining any G5.  And I think I can lure enough teams to do that.

Any team without a home and TV deal. The AAC teams don't need to join the PAC to keep making TV revenue. It's the other way around.

 

Probably why they will go after AAC schools first. 

And the AAC schools will say, "why join the PAC and pay tens of millions to the AAC when we can just wait until you have no other option other than to join us? Long term we feel we can make just as much money if the Pac joined the AAC."

 

Possibility of keeping A5 status in PAC, versus for sure losing it?

There is little to no chance they keep A5 status beyond 2023/2024. The AAC presidents know this. 

 

[outoftown]

2 hours ago, Cerebus said:

Look the money THEY WANTED BEFORE ALL THIS wasn't there.  And it looks like their path to B1G/SEC/ACC/B12 is dead. 

Their options are:

• Go indy, get zero conference tv money, get zero tourney access, get zero CFP access.
• Go to the MWC, get $4M/yr in tv money.
• Go to the AAC, get $8M/ye in tv money.
• Stay in the PAC, get some amount, more than $8M/yr in tv money, keep AAC tourney shares ($40M+ over next five years)

 

Let me be blunt, if some combination of SMU, Memphis, NT, etc is worth $8M/yr, then some combination of the highest tv draws of those teams + the PAC4 is worth more.

The bolded part would be true... if negotiated at the same time. However this is not a sellers market. Negotiating right now is a lot tougher than 2-3 years ago. They may still get more, but I wouldn't bet on the difference being huge.

[Wag Tag]

If Stanford and Cal go Indy is OSU and WSU still worth the addition?

[UNT Texas Hooligan]

1 minute ago, Wag Tag said:

If Stanford and Cal go Indy is OSU and WSU still worth the addition?

Absolutely

[outoftown]

2 hours ago, Cerebus said:

John Canzano is reporting the PAC4 have $420 Million in money to distribute this year.  Normally that would have gone to all members but they left and are no longer able to claim any of it. 

Any payout they need to make to Comcast, or a bowl game, they can easily make.

 

Still seems to me the most viable path forward for the PAC4 is to just add some teams from the AAC and/or the MWC. 

This may be true. But I would be feeling better about it if it came from a more reputable source that hasn't been wrong pretty much all along this process.

[TheColonyEagle]

Thing that sucks about this if you’re Oregon St., they have a legit shot to win the PAC 12 this year in its current form.

[outoftown]

30 minutes ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

 

I wish i were as certain that all AAC schools will be as level headed. SMU strikes as so desperate to find anything that may hold even the slightest potential of being more reputatble, they would do it and not blink about paying out. After that it gets more difficult, but if SMU does leave for such a conference, it might increase the pressure on others, similar to what colorado leaving did. UNT wouldn't have a choice though. It would be blackballed.

[UNTcrazy727]

14 minutes ago, Wag Tag said:

If Stanford and Cal go Indy is OSU and WSU still worth the addition?

100%

I think you take former P5s whenever you get the chance. Plus, it would still probably be enough to convince any MWC teams to join. 

[Cerebus]

3 minutes ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

I think we get it. You want to see UNT in CUSBELT 3.0

 You got me.  I want this school to languish.  Sure, I've supported them with thousands and thousands of dollars and helped run this board for a couple decades, but you saw through all of it. It was a long con.  Good job. 

I want to see UNT in the B12 or SEC.  However, I am not letting green colored glasses tint what I am seeing. 

45 minutes ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

no rendition of the PAC will hold onto their A5 status. No chance. As in 0%.

Maybe.  There might be some chance.   Can you tell me what the chances the AAC/MWC might get it?

[PlummMeanGreen]

Honestly, I thought all this was mostly pipe dreams banter until I read ESPN could be in on the assisting of forming a new AAC; that is, ESPN along with AAC Commissioner Aresca). That makes it at least an outside chance. 
If any of this doesn’t happen now, who’s to say it can’t ever happen?  •••Realignment seems to be here to stay.

BEAT THOSE CAL BEARS🐻 

[MGNation92]

26 minutes ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

100%

I think you take former P5s whenever you get the chance. Plus, it would still probably be enough to convince any MWC teams to join. 

OSU, Wazzu, Boise, Colorado St, SDSU, Air Force. Hell go get Gonzaga as basketball only, and Army as FB only. 

Multiple football/basketball powers, all three military academies. Would make a good case for A5 status IMO

 

[PlummMeanGreen]

2 hours ago, outoftown said:

I wish i were as certain that all AAC schools will be as level headed. SMU strikes as so desperate to find anything that may hold even the slightest potential of being more reputatble, they would do it and not blink about paying out. After that it gets more difficult, but if SMU does leave for such a conference, it might increase the pressure on others, similar to what colorado leaving did. UNT wouldn't have a choice though. It would be blackballed.

Like TCU, Baylor & UH are blackballing SMU?  

Edited August 10, 2023 by PlummMeanGreen

[NorthTexasWeLove]

3 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

 You got me.  I want this school to languish.  Sure, I've supported them with thousands and thousands of dollars and helped run this board for a couple decades, but you saw through all of it. It was a long con.  Good job. 

I want to see UNT in the B12 or SEC.  However, I am not letting green colored glasses tint what I am seeing. 

Maybe.  There might be some chance.   Can you tell me what the chances the AAC/MWC might get it?

I knew it. 

Also, no. It's going to A4. Then, A2. The A4 will happen as soon as those elbow running cronies can get together and make it official. The A2 will be after the implosion of the ACC. Then we'll have exactly what no one wanted except the people privately lining their coffers with TV money, the NFL developmental league. 

[TheColonyEagle]

43 minutes ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

Probably why they will go after AAC schools first. 

And the AAC schools will say, "why join the PAC and pay tens of millions to the AAC when we can just wait until you have no other option other than to join us? Long term we feel we can make just as much money if the Pac joined the AAC."

 

I've been arguing against AAC/MWC going to PAC vs the other way around. I just don't see the benefit and I agree with your point above that the PAC 4 doesn't really have much leverage. (we can argue AQ status for 2023 and beyond) however....

My thought regarding risk/reward for AAC schools going PAC is contingent upon some logic....but this is college football and logic doesn't apply. There's one thing that guides all of these schools and it's FOMO. 

FOMO led Colorado to kick this whole thing off. They weren't about to risk being in Oregon St's position so they went with the devil they knew. The one thing that COULD lead AAC schools to jump is the same thing. And it just takes one to start it. If.....say Memphis started sniffing around, then Boise, then SDSU again and here come the rumors that there will be enough of the MWC to take care of the exit fees, then SMU jumps in, and Tulane, then we start looking into it....

Next thing you know it's every man, woman and child for themselves and low and behold.....the Pac 12....or....Pac 16 lives on. Sure....the programs in this new conference still don't get a seat at the table when the Big 10 and SEC squash the ACC and the rest of college football.....but again, like our friend @Cougar King said on another post, "I'm not worried about the future." These schools aren't either. They're reacting to today because they're scared of the future. 

FOMO is what can cause the group that actually HAS leverage to succumb to the group without it. Because emotions and perceptions are guiding all of these decisions too...

[meangreenbob]

4 hours ago, Green Mean said:

Not so fast. 

[UNTcrazy727]

22 minutes ago, TheColonyEagle said:

I've been arguing against AAC/MWC going to PAC vs the other way around. I just don't see the benefit and I agree with your point above that the PAC 4 doesn't really have much leverage. (we can argue AQ status for 2023 and beyond) however....

My thought regarding risk/reward for AAC schools going PAC is contingent upon some logic....but this is college football and logic doesn't apply. There's one thing that guides all of these schools and it's FOMO. 

FOMO led Colorado to kick this whole thing off. They weren't about to risk being in Oregon St's position so they went with the devil they knew. The one thing that COULD lead AAC schools to jump is the same thing. And it just takes one to start it. If.....say Memphis started sniffing around, then Boise, then SDSU again and here come the rumors that there will be enough of the MWC to take care of the exit fees, then SMU jumps in, and Tulane, then we start looking into it....

Next thing you know it's every man, woman and child for themselves and low and behold.....the Pac 12....or....Pac 16 lives on. Sure....the programs in this new conference still don't get a seat at the table when the Big 10 and SEC squash the ACC and the rest of college football.....but again, like our friend @Cougar King said on another post, "I'm not worried about the future." These schools aren't either. They're reacting to today because they're scared of the future. 

FOMO is what can cause the group that actually HAS leverage to succumb to the group without it. Because emotions and perceptions are guiding all of these decisions too...

But what are Memphis and SMU at risk of missing out on? If they say no to leaving the AAC the PAC will have to absorb the MWC and take whatever crumbs are left in the TV/streaming market. It won’t match what we have with ESPN. 
I think it’s different because Colorado lost faith in the PAC leadership to get an TV deal and decided to get a piece of the Big 12’s sweet new deal. Right now, the AAC has the best, most long term TV deal of the 3 conferences in question. Why risk leaving to essentially start a new conference that needs a new TV deal in a market that’s dried up? Sure, ESPN could reduce the AAC’s payouts if there were defections to help make a play at this new PAC/MWC/AAC merger, but wouldn’t it be a whole lot easier to push the PAC leftovers to join the AAC? 

[emmitt01]

50 minutes ago, meangreenbob said:

Not so fast. 

This is twice you’ve alluded to some kind of “insider” information that leads you to believe the ACC expansion is still a go…either post it or stop this nonsense

[NorthTexasWeLove]

1 minute ago, emmitt01 said:

This is twice you’ve alluded to some kind of “insider” information that leads you to believe the ACC expansion is still a go…either post it or stop this nonsense

Some media mouth posted on twitter that the ACC will be meeting again tomorrow. I'm sure that's what he's referencing. 

[Mike Jackson]

5 minutes ago, greenjoe said:

Only for myself, I will hereafter refer to the AAC as the American and to the ACC as the Atlantic.  

Great, I think I will no the same.  
 
Marketing wise I think everyone associated with the conference should lean into that differentiation.

[Green Otaku]

3 hours ago, PlummMeanGreen said:

Honestly, I thought all this was mostly pipe dreams banter until I read ESPN could be in on the assisting of forming a new AAC; that is, ESPN along with AAC Commissioner Aresca). That makes it at least an outside chance. 
If any of this doesn’t happen now, who’s to say it can’t ever happen?  •••Realignment seems to be here to stay.

BEAT THOSE CAL BEARS🐻 

It's Aresco, I think it's strange you are always misspelling his name. 

 

5 hours ago, Cerebus said:

I agree with that, but that won't stop talking to ESPN (at a much lower price than B12), or Apple, or anyone.

 

You don't have to have a contract to negotiate on creating a new one. 

 

As someone highly skeptical if this whole PAC-AAC merger can actually be pulled off I think ESPN has a huge amount of power here, and one that is a bonus for us. When the AAC expanded I really think ESPN hade a huge hand in saying they won't pay for teams that are already in the ESPN umbrella. I'm sure a couple of SBC teams might have gotten a look if ESPN didn't shutdown the idea. ESPN doesn't want to cannibalize their own inventory, in the same vein I don't think ESPN is going to approve a new conference that messes with what they already have set up. Fox is tapped out, CBS might be interested since they are losing the SEC. That really leaves Apple or Amazon, so we will see if they can put out a deal worth jumping to. 

[Salsa_Verde]

7 hours ago, TheColonyEagle said:

If you’re one of the Pac 4 (specifically Stanford) what’s better for recruiting? 
 

Being independent? Or being in a conference with perceived lesser schools? 

Where are recruits going to watch games? That’s one of the reasons the Apple deal was a non starter…tough to tell a recruit watch our games on Apple when they don’t have a subscription 😅

[meangreenbob]

2 hours ago, emmitt01 said:

This is twice you’ve alluded to some kind of “insider” information that leads you to believe the ACC expansion is still a go…either post it or stop this nonsense

Well, actually I never “alluded” to some kind of insider information concerning AAC expansion. That’s your perception. 

All we have is hearsay, speculation and sports rhetoric.

Before we get all giddy let’s get the facts. We live in a world where common sense and logic are cast aside and replaced by the need for  control, power and greed which can lead to foolish and insane decisions. There are too many twist and turns yet ahead of us.

Sorry if you thought I was keeping insider information from you  

Go Mean Green  

 

 

 

[Matt from A700]

Landing the Pac 4 would be great attention for our conference. I do however hope we could continue filling out the gap between Texas and the West Coast with Colorado State, Air Force, Boise, UNLV, SDSU, etc.

[C Rod]

2 hours ago, meangreenbob said:

Well, actually I never “alluded” to some kind of insider information concerning AAC expansion. That’s your perception. 

All we have is hearsay, speculation and sports rhetoric.

Before we get all giddy let’s get the facts. We live in a world where common sense and logic are cast aside and replaced by the need for  control, power and greed which can lead to foolish and insane decisions. There are too many twist and turns yet ahead of us.

Sorry if you thought I was keeping insider information from you  

Go Mean Green