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I am starting to think this may really be happening!

cousin oliver

By cousin oliver
in Conference ReAlignment

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greenjoe
greenjoe

That does it ! Only for myself, I will hereafter refer to the AAC as the American and to the ACC as the Atlantic.     It’s just too hard to glance at initials and instantly know the meanin

El Paso Eagle
El Paso Eagle

What would make getting the PAC 4 sweeter would be SMU leaving to pay-to-play in the ACC.

cousin oliver
cousin oliver

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greenjoe Grand Master

greenjoe

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That does it !

Only for myself, I will hereafter refer to the AAC as the American and to the ACC as the Atlantic.  
 

It’s just too hard to glance at initials and instantly know the meaning.  

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GMG_Dallas Grand Master

GMG_Dallas

Posted
Posted
  On 8/10/2023 at 4:15 PM, Cerebus said:

I am starting to think Jim Williams might be Mike Aresco's sock puppet account.  Literally the only one talking up the AAC taking in the PAC4 and saying it is likely. 

 

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He went to USF. He likely really wants this to happen and figures as an established writer, he has some influence.

Cerebus Experienced

Cerebus

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John Canzano is reporting the PAC4 have $420 Million in money to distribute this year.  Normally that would have gone to all members but they left and are no longer able to claim any of it. 

Any payout they need to make to Comcast, or a bowl game, they can easily make.

 

Still seems to me the most viable path forward for the PAC4 is to just add some teams from the AAC and/or the MWC. 

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TheColonyEagle Grand Master

TheColonyEagle

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Posted
  On 8/10/2023 at 4:50 PM, Cerebus said:

John Canzano is reporting the PAC4 have $420 Million in money to distribute this year.  Normally that would have gone to all members but they left and are no longer able to claim any of it. 

Any payout they need to make to Comcast, or a bowl game, they can easily make.

 

Still seems to me the most viable path forward for the PAC4 is to just add some teams from the AAC and/or the MWC. 

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So are you saying any AAC or MWC teams they add get a piece of that $430 million? 

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Cerebus Experienced

Cerebus

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Posted
  On 8/10/2023 at 4:53 PM, ColoradoEagle said:

The money just isn't there unless they're able to work something out with Apple.

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Look the money THEY WANTED BEFORE ALL THIS wasn't there.  And it looks like their path to B1G/SEC/ACC/B12 is dead. 

Their options are:

  • Go indy, get zero conference tv money, get zero tourney access, get zero CFP access.
  • Go to the MWC, get $4M/yr in tv money.
  • Go to the AAC, get $8M/ye in tv money.
  • Stay in the PAC, get some amount, more than $8M/yr in tv money, keep AAC tourney shares ($40M+ over next five years)

 

Let me be blunt, if some combination of SMU, Memphis, NT, etc is worth $8M/yr, then some combination of the highest tv draws of those teams + the PAC4 is worth more.

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Cerebus Experienced

Cerebus

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  On 8/10/2023 at 4:54 PM, TheColonyEagle said:

If you’re one of the Pac 4 (specifically Stanford) what’s better for recruiting? 
 

Being independent? Or being in a conference with perceived lesser schools? 

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Hey kid come here and have zero access to the CFP?  Or no access to the NCAA Tourney? 

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NorthTexasWeLove Grand Master

NorthTexasWeLove

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Posted
  On 8/10/2023 at 5:02 PM, Cerebus said:

Look the money THEY WANTED BEFORE ALL THIS wasn't there.  And it looks like their path to B1G/SEC/ACC/B12 is dead. 

Their options are:

  • Go indy, get zero conference tv money, get zero tourney access, get zero CFP access.
  • Go to the MWC, get $4M/yr in tv money.
  • Go to the AAC, get $8M/ye in tv money.
  • Stay in the AAC, get some amount, more than $8M/yr in tv money, keep AAC tourney shares ($40M+ over next five years)

Let me be blunt, if some combination of SMU, Memphis, NT, etc is worth $8M/yr, then some combination of those teams + the PAC4 is worth more.

 

 

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They would get more if they came to the AAC. It's a clause in the TV contract with ESPN that if the AAC becomes more valuable then Aresco has the right to reopen negotiations. Our cut would probably stay the same for a temporary amount of time, but the value of the leauge would increase and therefore those new additions would get bigger cuts. 

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ColoradoEagle Experienced

ColoradoEagle

Posted
Posted
  On 8/10/2023 at 5:02 PM, Cerebus said:

Look the money THEY WANTED BEFORE ALL THIS wasn't there.  And it looks like their path to B1G/SEC/ACC/B12 is dead. 

  • Stay in the AAC, get some amount, more than $8M/yr in tv money, keep AAC tourney shares ($40M+ over next five years)

Let me be blunt, if some combination of SMU, Memphis, NT, etc is worth $8M/yr, then some combination of those teams + the PAC4 is worth more.

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Going to assume you meant Pac in that bullet point.

What I mean by the money not being there...Fox has what they want out of the west coast. They're not coming to the table. 

For both ESPN, and to a lesser extent CBS, why would they come to the table with a new Pac-X when they could just force those schools into the AAC or MWC, respectively? 

That would mean the only realistic bidder at this point is Apple. They'd have to a) find enough willing schools to make the jump, 2) help those schools with exit fees, and 3) get enough money out of Apple to offset that they will basically disappear from the public eye nationally.

I just don't see it.

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Cerebus Experienced

Cerebus

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Posted
  On 8/10/2023 at 5:06 PM, NorthTexasWeLove said:

They would get more if they came to the AAC. It's a clause in the TV contract with ESPN that if the AAC becomes more valuable then Aresco has the right to reopen negotiations. Our cut would probably stay the same for a temporary amount of time, but the value of the leauge would increase and therefore those new additions would get bigger cuts. 

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So your position is:

  • the PAC4 is valuable to ESPN if they join the AAC, while at the same time
  • The PAC4 is not valuable to ESPN if they stay in the PAC?

Doesn't make any sense to me.

 

The PAC4 is clearly not $25M to $35M a year valuable to ESPN, which is what they wanted.  But $10M to $15M a year?  Probably. 

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Cerebus Experienced

Cerebus

Posted
Posted
  On 8/10/2023 at 5:07 PM, ColoradoEagle said:

What I mean by the money not being there...Fox has what they want out of the west coast. They're not coming to the table. 

For both ESPN, and to a lesser extent CBS, why would they come to the table with a new Pac-X when they could just force those schools into the AAC or MWC, respectively? 

 

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If you think they have no value and no one would pay them for TV rights they you must obviously want the AAC not to invite them, correct?

 

But you do want them to be invited.  If we could land them they would increase the media deal.  They have value, just not B12 value+ like they wanted. 

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El Paso Eagle Grand Master

El Paso Eagle

Posted
Posted
  On 8/10/2023 at 4:50 PM, Cerebus said:

John Canzano is reporting the PAC4 have $420 Million in money to distribute this year.  Normally that would have gone to all members but they left and are no longer able to claim any of it. 

Any payout they need to make to Comcast, or a bowl game, they can easily make.

 

Still seems to me the most viable path forward for the PAC4 is to just add some teams from the AAC and/or the MWC. 

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Not sure it's the last four's money. Since the conference did not have a buyout in place, the teams in the conference in the year the payouts are made would most likely have the right to their portion unless they agreed to forgo it. In our case, I believe we withheld receiving our distribution as part of the buyout. 

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ColoradoEagle Experienced

ColoradoEagle

Posted
Posted
  On 8/10/2023 at 5:13 PM, Cerebus said:

If you think they have no value and no one would pay them for TV rights they you must obviously want the AAC not to invite them, correct?

But you do want them to be invited.  If we could land them they would increase the media deal.  They have value, just not B12 value+ like they wanted. 

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Again, no one is saying they don't have value. What I'm saying is it makes no sense to enter into a new Pac-X contract when they could just strongarm them into an existing, possibly modified contract.

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TheColonyEagle Grand Master

TheColonyEagle

Posted
Posted
  On 8/10/2023 at 5:06 PM, NorthTexasWeLove said:

They would get more if they came to the AAC. It's a clause in the TV contract with ESPN that if the AAC becomes more valuable then Aresco has the right to reopen negotiations. Our cut would probably stay the same for a temporary amount of time, but the value of the leauge would increase and therefore those new additions would get bigger cuts. 

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However….be careful what they wish for. If I’m ESPN, I see the money going out (current contract) and I know I’m not going to have the same money coming in (the 3 best and most visible programs left) so I might WANT to renegotiate. The question is, do the PAC 4 leftovers make more money for ESPN than the top 10 programs and CFP challengers that left. 
 

I would argue maybe not….

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NorthTexasWeLove Grand Master

NorthTexasWeLove

Posted
Posted
  On 8/10/2023 at 5:10 PM, Cerebus said:

So your position is:

  • the PAC4 is valuable to ESPN if they join the AAC, while at the same time
  • The PAC4 is not valuable to ESPN if they stay in the PAC?

Doesn't make any sense to me.

 

The PAC4 is clearly not $25M to $35M a year valuable to ESPN, which is what they wanted.  But $10M to $15M a year?  Probably. 

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Precisely. ESPN isn't paying money to a 4 member conference. 

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