AAC leveraging ESPN to lure forgotten 4

[Tommy Gadberry]

 

[Tommy Gadberry]

Excerpt: 

The AAC’s current television deal is a big reason why. The AAC signed a 12-year, $1 billion TV deal with ESPN back in 2019. The conference distributed an average of over $8.3 million to its 11 all-member schools in 2022, according to tax records. The Mountain West Conference distributes around $4 million annually, according to multiple reports.

 

[MeanGreenGlory]

[NorthTexasWeLove]

1 hour ago, ADLER said:

After that, ESPN should cherry-pick the Mountain West's most prominent schools to the AAC.

I would have to guess that's the long game. The short game is to secure 2 of 4 PAC, at minimum. Then in 2 years go get AF, CoSt, SDSU and Boise. 

That is, without doubt, Arescos dream scenario he is trying to orchestrate. 

[shaft]

The ACC didn't act on Wednesday, so there is real debate if they will expand with Stanford, Cal, and SMU.

The AAC jumps in a says we'll take al 4, but so will MWC.  So which media deal is better the AAC's or MWC and how does the travel cost change with  a regional foot print vs a national one?

[cousin oliver]

4 minutes ago, shaft said:

So which media deal is better the AAC's or MWC a

From everything I understand the AAC has the better deal and it is not even close when compared to the Mountain West.

[emmitt01]

8 minutes ago, shaft said:

The ACC didn't act on Wednesday, so there is real debate if they will expand with Stanford, Cal, and SMU.

The AAC jumps in a says we'll take al 4, but so will MWC.  So which media deal is better the AAC's or MWC and how does the travel cost change with  a regional foot print vs a national one?

AAC - 7M per school

MWC - 4M per school

[NorthTexasWeLove]

8 minutes ago, shaft said:

The ACC didn't act on Wednesday, so there is real debate if they will expand with Stanford, Cal, and SMU.

The AAC jumps in a says we'll take al 4, but so will MWC.  So which media deal is better the AAC's or MWC and how does the travel cost change with  a regional foot print vs a national one?

The AACs is twice the amount of money 8 vs 4. If they jump in the AAC there is a clause that the AAC could repoen contract negotiations. Monetarily, the AAC is clearly the better option. It always was. 

[GrayEagle]

11 hours ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

The AACs is twice the amount of money 8 vs 4. If they jump in the AAC there is a clause that the AAC could repoen contract negotiations. Monetarily, the AAC is clearly the better option. It always was. 

I thought that the AAC payout was in the $10-$11 million area.  I know that we don't get that much but we will eventually.  Until we start getting the three teams that left's full share we will get less.  I believe that it will be split 14 ways in 2025?

[greenjoe]

Would the AAC be 16 teams with the inclusion of the PAC 4 orphans ?  That would reduce the per school payout unless the AAC 16 would be more attractive thereby creating a more lucrative deal ??

[cousin oliver]

13 minutes ago, greenjoe said:

Would the AAC be 16 teams with the inclusion of the PAC 4 orphans ?  That would reduce the per school payout unless the AAC 16 would be more attractive thereby creating a more lucrative deal ??

The sentiment I am hearing is that ESPN would be willing to up the ante.  Partially because they feel guilty about what they did to the forgotten four.

[MrAlien]

ESPN is the only network that can deliver all the college sports, thats worth something in itself.  Adding the P4 schools will certainly increase revenue, and would likely trigger a renegotiation, meaning more money for everyone.  

The MWC deal with FOX/CBS is not as lucrative, adding the P4 schools would increase revenue, however I dont think the pay out would be nearly as high as the AAC.

The ACC would have the opposite problem, the four P4 schools would add to the total conference revenue, however they would have four additional schools to split the revenue with, and that might actually decrease the individual payouts for the current ACC schools.   

[Wag Tag]

33 minutes ago, cousin oliver said:

The sentiment I am hearing is that ESPN would be willing to up the ante.  Partially because they feel guilty about what they did to the forgotten four.

The new AAC with the addition of the West Coast 4, could have games all day long within the different time zones. Maybe somewhat like the B12 model. The newbies would also get more national exposure since they would not be stuck in the west coast time zone. GMG 

[GMG_Dallas]

26 minutes ago, MrAlien said:

ESPN is the only network that can deliver all the college sports, thats worth something in itself.  Adding the P4 schools will certainly increase revenue, and would likely trigger a renegotiation, meaning more money for everyone.  

The MWC deal with FOX/CBS is not as lucrative, adding the P4 schools would increase revenue, however I dont think the pay out would be nearly as high as the AAC.

The ACC would have the opposite problem, the four P4 schools would add to the total conference revenue, however they would have four additional schools to split the revenue with, and that might actually decrease the individual payouts for the current ACC schools.   

I'll disagree about decreased individual payouts to current AAC schools for this one reason: ESPN has ZERO west coast markets. FOX and CBS really don't need the "forgotten 4." They have all of those markets covered with the MWC and new B1G additions. ESPN goes no further than Arizona/Utah. They have nothing on the true west coast.

I think ESPN wants the "forgotten 4" and wanted the PAC 12, they just couldn't afford them in that form. If the remaining 4 come to the AAC, ESPN will have ended up with 75% of the PAC 12 markets at a discounted rate compared to PAC12 pricing but they know they need to up the pricing to the AAC for those 4 schools joining to make sense. I think current AAC schools will gain some money. Maybe not up to $15 million per school but they certainly won't go down. In a sense, ESPN needs the remaining 4 as much as the AAC needs them. It's just a bidding war. They certainly can't afford for the remaining 4 to go to CBS and/or FOX.

Edited August 10, 2023 by GMG_Dallas

[Cooke County Kid]

Let’s do this deal.  Call whoever you need to, to make this happen and let’s GO!

Edited August 10, 2023 by Cooke County Kid

[MrAlien]

1 hour ago, GMG_Dallas said:

I'll disagree about decreased individual payouts to current AAC schools for this one reason: ESPN has ZERO west coast markets. FOX and CBS really don't need the "forgotten 4."

AAC or ACC???

The Pac4 school will undoubtedly  increase the payouts in the AAC.

However in the ACC I think you might see a decrease.  The four remaining PAC schools did not do the heavy lifting for the PAC12 with regards to their media deal.  Hard to put an exact value on what the remaining four are worth, but having to divide revenue by an additional 4 schools could mean a smaller payout for existing schools.  1 or 2 schools might work, but I dont see the ACC taking all 4, especially with a 3 hour time difference.

[GMG_Dallas]

15 minutes ago, MrAlien said:

AAC or ACC???

The Pac4 school will undoubtedly  increase the payouts in the AAC.

However in the ACC I think you might see a decrease.  The four remaining PAC schools did not do the heavy lifting for the PAC12 with regards to their media deal.  Hard to put an exact value on what the remaining four are worth, but having to divide revenue by an additional 4 schools could mean a smaller payout for existing schools.  1 or 2 schools might work, but I dont see the ACC taking all 4, especially with a 3 hour time difference.

I'm going to start referring to them as American and Atlantic. I never knew one letter could cause so much destruction. I thought you said AAC in regards to the current schools receiving less money. My bad. Carry on.

[golfingomez]

17 hours ago, ADLER said:

After that, ESPN should cherry-pick the Mountain West's most prominent schools to the AAC.

Would the MWC still have the massive exit fees?

[ColoradoEagle]

1 hour ago, golfingomez said:

Would the MWC still have the massive exit fees?

The way the MWC bylaws are written is that schools leaving would owe the conference double the previous year's conference distribution if notified by 6/30, and triple if notifying after. Also if you notify after, it's like the gym membership where they're going to charge you for the current period. That's how it went from $17m to $34m for SDSU (double at $8.5 each = $17m vs. current year and triple ($8.5m x 4) $34m).

Since they'd never get zero distribution, they'll always owe some sort of exit fee. No free agency period like we're seeing with the Pac.

Edited August 10, 2023 by ColoradoEagle

[shaft]

There's one more option no one is talking about, the Big 12 can add Stanford and Cal.   Just because they weren't interested a week ago, doesn't mean they feel the same way now.

That leaves Washington State & Oregon State to the MWC.

[Cerebus]

18 hours ago, ColoradoEagle said:

The way the MWC bylaws are written is that schools leaving would owe the conference double the previous year's conference distribution if notified by 6/30, and triple if notifying after. Also if you notify after, it's like the gym membership where they're going to charge you for the current period. That's how it went from $17m to $34m for SDSU (double at $8.5 each = $17m vs. current year and triple ($8.5m x 4) $34m).

Since they'd never get zero distribution, they'll always owe some sort of exit fee. No free agency period like we're seeing with the Pac.

Simple majority to change the bylaws.  Six can change the resignation (exit fee) rule, then resign. 

[C Rod]

On 8/10/2023 at 9:13 AM, greenjoe said:

Would the AAC be 16 teams with the inclusion of the PAC 4 orphans ?  That would reduce the per school payout unless the AAC 16 would be more attractive thereby creating a more lucrative deal ??

AAC currently has 14 football members. Adding the PAC 4 would take us to 18 football members and most likely create East/West divisions to cut down on travel costs. AAC's TV deal with ESPN allows for renegotiation if/when the AAC adds teams of value. Adding four P5 schools in the Pacific time zone would definitely create a more lucrative deal.

It would not surprise me to see ESPN overpay a little in order to entice the PAC 4 and keep them out of the MWC. I've heard the rumor that the PAC 4 would receive full TV revenue shares while UNT and the other five CUSA additions would stay at their reduced TV share. 

Aresco has his work cut out for him but with ESPN's backing, he could negotiate a win-win for everyone. So long as Cal & Stanford's educational elitism doesn't get in the way. 

[NorthTexasWeLove]

10 minutes ago, C Rod said:

AAC currently has 14 football members. Adding the PAC 4 would take us to 18 football members and most likely create East/West divisions to cut down on travel costs. AAC's TV deal with ESPN allows for renegotiation if/when the AAC adds teams of value. Adding four P5 schools in the Pacific time zone would definitely create a more lucrative deal.

It would not surprise me to see ESPN overpay a little in order to entice the PAC 4 and keep them out of the MWC. I've heard the rumor that the PAC 4 would receive full TV revenue shares while UNT and the other five CUSA additions would stay at their reduced TV share. 

Aresco has his work cut out for him but with ESPN's backing, he could negotiate a win-win for everyone. So long as Cal & Stanford's educational elitism doesn't get in the way. 

If Cal and Stanford joined the AAC the AAC would be a top 3 academic conference in AAU affiliates. Them joining would put the conference at #3 behind the Big10 and ACC. It would bring the total to 6 or 7 AAU institutions. There's really no place for them to show academic elitism at that point. 

[DeepGreen]

The real question is-  what would Judy do?

[GMG_Dallas]

8 minutes ago, DeepGreen said:

The real question is-  what would Judy do?

Offer the PAC 4 fans a 10% discount on CUSA TV subscriptions for the first 6 months.