PAC 12 Realignment Talk Mega Thread (All 12 threads merged)

[greenminer]

So...what's the hold up on these talks?

Here's my guess: Stanford.  Those birds want zero part of any kind of merger (MW or AAC), and think they're getting into the B10 or SEC...when they're not.

They can eat toast.  If they don't want to be a part of this, let them go indie and see how that feels.  Aresco and Co can take 1-to-3 of the remaining  WS/Cal/OS trio.

[Arkstfan]

3 hours ago, NorthTexan95 said:

@Arkstfan - It's always great to get your insight into these topics. 

Thanks. If I were Oliver Luck I’d tell the remaining four pick their poison. Join MWC which is more athlete and fan friendly or join AAC to make more money but otherwise get over yourselves. 
 

Stanford could survive as a football independent. I don’t see how Cal could afford it. Oregon State or Washington State as football independents ain’t UConn and winning hoops national titles in whatever league would take them without football 

[Green Otaku]

39 minutes ago, greenminer said:

So...what's the hold up on these talks?

Here's my guess: Stanford.  Those birds want zero part of any kind of merger (MW or AAC), and think they're getting into the B10 or SEC...when they're not.

They can eat toast.  If they don't want to be a part of this, let them go indie and see how that feels.  Aresco and Co can take 1-to-3 of the remaining  WS/Cal/OS trio.

 

PAC need to weigh all of their options as well as see who is in and who is out of any merger scenarios. Seeing as how Aresco and Luck met, they need to pitch a solid plan that has been agreed to by all sides so ESPN can make their offer and they can negotiate from there. These things take time. 

[Cooke County Kid]

If think that if we are realistic about what will happen, there will really be only one thing that will move the needle for everyone but smut and that will be the media money.  How much ESPN or whoever will pay the schools in a “new” conference for their media rights. Location is secondary, even conference mates won’t matter so much, it will come down to money and those pac teams need a lot. 

[Wag Tag]

If the AAC disappears, that will take product off the market. This should allow the news PAAC to negotiate a stronger contract. I just don’t know how you form a new conference without a media commit!

[Arkstfan]

2 hours ago, Wag Tag said:

If the AAC disappears, that will take product off the market. This should allow the news PAAC to negotiate a stronger contract. I just don’t know how you form a new conference without a media commit!

You go to potential partners and say here are potential alignments, maybe give them four. What's each worth?

If the numbers on the sheet are good, you go to the potential schools and say here is what is on the table if you join. It is on letterhead from this network or bears the names of the networks.

I'm sure AAC got numbers before they extended invites. I know Sun Belt did.

[NT80]

49 minutes ago, Arkstfan said:

You go to potential partners and say here are potential alignments, maybe give them four. What's each worth?

If the numbers on the sheet are good, you go to the potential schools and say here is what is on the table if you join. It is on letterhead from this network or bears the names of the networks.

I'm sure AAC got numbers before they extended invites. I know Sun Belt did.

Stanford is still the main meat on the bone for any deal, but they seem set on going their own way. 🍖 

ESPN won’t pay nearly as much for any Stanford-less deal.  Once these schools (Ore St, Wash St, Cal) move on without them then the real deals can begin to form and take life. 

[antique_alum]

On 8/14/2023 at 7:47 PM, Green Otaku said:

Another key thing is if we all take the PAC name we become the conference, meaning we get voting rights and rights to all of its assets. If let's say we let the PAC4 keep the name in some hybrid agreement, and the league does really well they can then in the future take the PAC name and rebuild by cherry picking the best teams. The first way forces them to leave the conference if they want to do any kind of rebuilding. 

Right...They get the assets, but they also get the liabilities, including the $50 million Comcast (overpayment refund) obligation 

[C Rod]

39 minutes ago, NT80 said:

Stanford is still the main meat on the bone for any deal, but they seem set on going their own way. 🍖 

ESPN won’t pay nearly as much for any Stanford-less deal.  Once these schools (Ore St, Wash St, Cal) move on without them then the real deals can begin to form and take life. 

True, however ESPN still badly wants the West coast timezone to compete with FOX & CBS. They need to put enough money on the table to make it worth WSU, OSU, & Cal's time and travel costs. Also forward looking, ESPN recognizes that the AAC will need to poach some schools from the MWC (SDSU, Boise St, AF, etc) in two years so the renegotiated TV deal better have some "meat on the bone". 

[Arkstfan]

1 hour ago, NT80 said:

Stanford is still the main meat on the bone for any deal, but they seem set on going their own way. 🍖 

ESPN won’t pay nearly as much for any Stanford-less deal.  Once these schools (Ore St, Wash St, Cal) move on without them then the real deals can begin to form and take life. 

I think you are spot on that Stanford is THE media value. I suspect they could do a BYU and put other sports in WCC and go independent and get a better contract than BYU got.

Oregon State, Washington State, and Cal are worth more than most any G5 school because they have pretty good fan bases and name recognition, but still not as valuable as the Cardinal.

Maybe reading this all wrong, but it seems like Stanford is an obstacle to the most efficient option. Merging with MWC and AAC to boost the overall value of whichever league, basically taking one of them over in order to retain the CFP contract status and NCAA units of P12, even if the other league has to discard their units. They deem too many schools in each league unworthy 🙂

To keep Stanford, I think Pac-4 has to pick off schools. I am skeptical a rebuilt Pac-4 can offer enough to convince people to start paying big departure fees, especially early departure fees to be in Pac-4 next season.

This is absolutely the most fascinating realignment situation that has emerged. 

They merge and things get calm for a time because everyone with juice is locked in for a good time. They manage to raid? Freaking chaos.

[Wag Tag]

I’m starting to think the best case may be Stanford and SMU going to the ACC for free. AAC takes WSU and OSU with an eye on MWC. That would leave only the MWC to compete against the AAC in the west. We could easily offer coast to coast conference. 

[Green Otaku]

47 minutes ago, Wag Tag said:

I’m starting to think the best case may be Stanford and SMU going to the ACC for free. AAC takes WSU and OSU with an eye on MWC. That would leave only the MWC to compete against the AAC in the west. We could easily offer coast to coast conference. 

I could see in that scenario WSU/OSU absorbing the MWC into the PAC if they can get a tv deal done that was acceptable. Regional conference with less travel, and their eventual intent would be to poach the AAC down the line. Kind of the reverse of the PAC/AAC merger. 

[Green Otaku]

1 hour ago, antique_alum said:

Right...They get the assets, but they also get the liabilities, including the $50 million Comcast (overpayment refund) obligation 

It's already been reported that the teams who received those payments and were in the conference at the time are the ones responsible for the repayment. It wouldn't make sense for teams that weren't in the conference to have to repay that money. 

[meangreenfaninno]

1 hour ago, Wag Tag said:

I’m starting to think the best case may be Stanford and SMU going to the ACC for free. AAC takes WSU and OSU with an eye on MWC. That would leave only the MWC to compete against the AAC in the west. We could easily offer coast to coast conference. 

I agree.  But SMU isn’t stupid, theybwill want a clause to protect them if FSU and Clemson bail on them or whatnot.  Also it appears to me the ACC and Big 16 have shut their doors.

[Wag Tag]

14 minutes ago, meangreenfaninno said:

I agree.  But SMU isn’t stupid, theybwill want a clause to protect them if FSU and Clemson bail on them or whatnot.  Also it appears to me the ACC and Big 16 have shut their doors.

I don’t think that will matter. They just need to have P5 next to their name. USC and UCLA leaving the PAC didn’t bother them. WSU and OSU are running deficits, they would need the AAC with the bigger payout than the MWC. Just read an article Stanford and Ca to the ACC. They must be a package, because Ca, offers little from a sports standpoint.

[Arkstfan]

1 hour ago, Wag Tag said:

I don’t think that will matter. They just need to have P5 next to their name. USC and UCLA leaving the PAC didn’t bother them. WSU and OSU are running deficits, they would need the AAC with the bigger payout than the MWC. Just read an article Stanford and Ca to the ACC. They must be a package, because Ca, offers little from a sports standpoint.

They offer academic prestige and they mean you can send the basketball team to Stanford on Wednesday or Thursday and let them stay there to play Cal on Saturday instead of turning around and going to Pitt.

[NT80]

4 hours ago, Arkstfan said:

They offer academic prestige and they mean you can send the basketball team to Stanford on Wednesday or Thursday and let them stay there to play Cal on Saturday instead of turning around and going to Pitt.

I would be leery of anyone not named Big10 taking Stanford and keeping them.  Stanford would park in the ACC, but not for long term.

[NT80]

As Stanford holds out hope for ACC invitation, Oregon State and Washington State wait on Cardinal

https://apnews.com/article/pac12-stanford-acc-conference-realignment-oregon-washiington-0722c523671cd2e4ac8b42151000bf48

[NT80]

Oregon State, Washington State ponder next moves after getting left out of college reshuffling

https://apnews.com/article/pac12-oregon-state-washington-state-da3b5ad4d31cfc110695e9025e05ea35

[NT80]

Stanford and Cal have momentum in their favor to join the ACC

A move for Stanford and Cal could be coming in the next 24 hours

https://www.si.com/college/stanford/football/stanford-and-cal-have-momentum-in-their-favor-to-join-the-acc

[Green Otaku]

The networks have so much power here. The ACC is controlled by ESPN, so if you are ESPN do you pay $30m for a full share, or $30m for both at half shares? Or even less if they are really desperate. What do you offer them if they join the AAC? The CFP money, BB credits, etc, are all shared by 2 more schools, will the rest of the ACC be ok with that? 

[NT80]

19 minutes ago, Green Otaku said:

The networks have so much power here. The ACC is controlled by ESPN, so if you are ESPN do you pay $30m for a full share, or $30m for both at half shares? Or even less if they are really desperate. What do you offer them if they join the AAC? The CFP money, BB credits, etc, are all shared by 2 more schools, will the rest of the ACC be ok with that? 

Stanford seems to be willing to take no ACC revenue for a few years just to get the invite.  Cal however has athletic debt with facility renovations and needs revenue.   ACC media contract with ESPN says additions would earn the conference more revenue, which Stanford's portion could then be shifted to FSU and others unhappy with the current distributions. 

There would still be added costs for ACC teams to travel their major and minor sports to California.  This deal also seems to not include Smut and would probably lead Ore St and Wash St to merge into either the MWC or AAC.  Oregon St just finished a $180M stadium renovation.

Edited August 18, 2023 by NT80

[Green Otaku]

2 hours ago, NT80 said:

Stanford seems to be willing to take no ACC revenue for a few years just to get the invite.  Cal however has athletic debt with facility renovations and needs revenue.   ACC media contract with ESPN says additions would earn the conference more revenue, which Stanford's portion could then be shifted to FSU and others unhappy with the current distributions. 

There would still be added costs for ACC teams to travel their major and minor sports to California.  This deal also seems to not include Smut and would probably lead Ore St and Wash St to merge into either the MWC or AAC.  Oregon St just finished a $180M stadium renovation.

If anyone can do that I guess Stanford can, they have a lot of very wealthy alums, but it still seems reckless. Do they get a vote? Do they have an exit fee? More power to them if they can make it happen. I think the real question is what's in it for the ACC schools? Stanford would be valuable to either the AAC or MWC, but to the ACC it would be significantly less so. How much value would they add? And like you said travel costs are a real thing. Now FB only? I could see that, but for all sports that'd be a brutal back and forth every week. 

[TIgreen01]

4 hours ago, Green Otaku said:

If anyone can do that I guess Stanford can, they have a lot of very wealthy alums, but it still seems reckless. Do they get a vote? Do they have an exit fee? More power to them if they can make it happen. I think the real question is what's in it for the ACC schools? Stanford would be valuable to either the AAC or MWC, but to the ACC it would be significantly less so. How much value would they add? And like you said travel costs are a real thing. Now FB only? I could see that, but for all sports that'd be a brutal back and forth every week. 

If you’re an athlete from the west coast, why sign to play for Stanford or Cal?  I imagine there will be outliers, but by and large you want to play closer to family.  I would think these schools better start shelling out huge sums to recruits or they won’t be able to compete with ACC schools once their current rosters graduate.

[Wag Tag]

20 minutes ago, TIgreen01 said:

If you’re an athlete from the west coast, why sign to play for Stanford or Cal?  I imagine there will be outliers, but by and large you want to play closer to family.  I would think these schools better start shelling out huge sums to recruits or they won’t be able to compete with ACC schools once their current rosters graduate.

Stanford, a very high international reputation, very hard to get in, very strong alumni, and alot of NIL dollars.