PAC 12 Realignment Talk Mega Thread (All 12 threads merged)

[Green Otaku]

3 hours ago, SigmaGreen said:

 

I was thinking the same.

Another key thing is if we all take the PAC name we become the conference, meaning we get voting rights and rights to all of its assets. If let's say we let the PAC4 keep the name in some hybrid agreement, and the league does really well they can then in the future take the PAC name and rebuild by cherry picking the best teams. The first way forces them to leave the conference if they want to do any kind of rebuilding. 

[Green Otaku]

1 hour ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

It was. But hearing that AAC presidents are meeting is a big smoke cloud. 

Like with anything realignment it's always good to be weary of all info, and only believe something when you see that official school statement put out. 

[greenminer]

 

 

[NT80]

37 minutes ago, greenminer said:

 

 

Too time consuming to rebuild.  Your invitees have to pay exit fees and waiting periods, plus you have no TV deal in place for such an arrangement. 

The better option is merger; then bide your time until you can get a better offer after the ACC implodes in a few years.

[Wag Tag]

I have to think SMU would like to see a reformed PAC and I wonder how much $$ they are willing to throw at it Lting see it get done.

[greenminer]

 

[greenminer]

 

[greenminer]

 

[Jonnyeagle]

17 minutes ago, greenminer said:

 

This is nothing more than a Cal Bear propaganda piece.

[NT80]

Lots of questions here, but few answers yet.  It seems the first to find the correct combination, gets to open the vault....

"Cal athletic director Jim Knowlton addressed the pressing issue of Pac-12 realignment on Tuesday as reports and speculation provide hints as to where Cal, Stanford, Oregon State and Washington State might end up next year."

https://www.si.com/college/cal/news/knowlton-on-realignment

[Jonnyeagle]

BREAKING: Pacific American deal may be done in principal. Hard ball dealings at end. American will dissolve to pay NO exit fees, and 11 AAC teams will receive invites to the PAC. UNT, UAB, UTSA, Rice and FAU will receive lower shares to pay for SDSU, CSU & Boise for a 2025 start.

[greenminer]

10 minutes ago, Jonnyeagle said:

BREAKING: Pacific American deal may be done in principal. Hard ball dealings at end. American will dissolve to pay NO exit fees, and 11 AAC teams will receive invites to the PAC. UNT, UAB, UTSA, Rice and FAU will receive lower shares to pay for SDSU, CSU & Boise for a 2025 start.

This is nothing more than copy-paste.
 

 

[MeanGreen22]

The beaver man is wild. Shoutout for the dedication to making the 25+ different conference variation graphics. 

[NorthTexan95]

57 minutes ago, MeanGreen22 said:

The beaver man is wild. Shoutout for the dedication to making the 25+ different conference variation graphics. 

If he makes enough variations, eventually one will be correct and he can claim victory. 

[NT80]

3 hours ago, MeanGreen22 said:

The beaver man is wild. Shoutout for the dedication to making the 25+ different conference variation graphics. 

He is desperate for Oregon State to find a landing spot so he invents them...daily.

[VideoEagle]

6 hours ago, NT80 said:

He is desperate for Oregon State to find a landing spot so he invents them...daily.

Sometimes twice daily! He seems to have a lot of free time. 

[TripleGrad]

9 hours ago, NorthTexan95 said:

If he makes enough variations, eventually one will be correct and he can claim victory. 

The one with UConn and Sam Houston is LIT.

[El Paso Eagle]

11 hours ago, NorthTexan95 said:

If he makes enough variations, eventually one will be correct and he can claim victory. 

The ESPN prediction model - Have enough people make different predictions so you can come back and give your network attaboys for the prediction.

[greenminer]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/options-dwindling-as-california-stanford-oregon-state-washington-state-prepare-to-take-financial-hits/

[UNTBill]

All this speculation is giving me tired head.

[C Rod]

Well played Jared Mosley! 😂 

[Arkstfan]

Oliver Luck ain't no dummy. He's also not a riverboat gambler.

What he is, is a consensus builder stuck with at least 25% and maybe 50% of his charges being unrealistic snobs. Stanford and Cal are two great academic institutions but I will wager the reported professor who valued Pac-12-2 at $50 million per school was at Stanford and used the same sort of best case wishful thinking that plagues so many Silicon Valley valuations.

Stanford and Cal don't command huge audiences. Oregon State and Washington State seem to grasp what the score is. Stanford and maybe Cal seem to think they can score a TD, a 2 point conversion, recover an onside kick score another 8 and then another onside kick and score another 8 and win this thing in overtime despite there being only 58 seconds left on the clock starting at their own 25 and it won't be hard.

Stanford and maybe Cal are much like Louisiana Tech, ship is sinking and they are declaring that the lifeboats don't seem roomy enough, the passing tanker can't offer comfortable enough quarters so they'll just ride it out until a luxury liner arrives.

So far I've seen it touted that they take 9 schools from MWC and convince them to dissolve to avoid departure fees and leave two of the full members for dead. Now I've seen it touted for AAC.

Here's the thing. 

Does anyone believe that a judge or a jury is going to buy that X number of schools woke up one morning and all independently reached the conclusion that they should dissolve their conference and then by stroke of amazing coincidence those schools were offered admission to the Pac-12 but not until AFTER the vote. Not one of the schools voted to dissolve having assurances in place that they had a new conference to land in. MWC and Sun Belt have provisions that state you take any act to join another conference you've constructively withdrawn. Given the history of Big East/AAC and the long departure requirement I'd be stunned if AAC doesn't have a similar provision. 

So the left behinds file suit and declare the conference was not dissolved because once those schools conspired to agree to dissolve the conference they had constructively withdrawn and no longer were eligible to vote to withdraw and in fact committed fraud by representing that they were still part of the conference.

It's a cute and clever plan, it is however not a plan that is likely to avoid an ugly and expensive resolution.

There's a second problem.

None of these dissolve and join Pac-12 plans are likely to appease Stanford and in turn, may not appease Cal.

Stanford is the biggest prize left in Pac-4. Cal is saddled by a 100 year mortgage that currently costs them $18 million a year, with the university carrying $9.5 million of that payment and athletics carrying $8.5 million. In a decade or less that payment doubles. No matter what happens, Cal is bringing home less money in 2024-25 than they will make in 2023-24. So they have a lot of expense they can't shed but they will be shedding revenue and they have their debt obligation doubling sooner than they'd like.

You want Stanford happy, you go round up a handful of AAU schools. So Rice, Tulane, Buffalo and South Florida are in the conversation. Maybe they elevate UC Davis out of FCS.  Best case that's 9 schools. Meh. Need some more.

In the Pacific time zone. There are only two schools of NOTABLE value. San Diego State and Gonzaga. You squint real hard and they sort of live up to the Stanford standard. Next you have UNLV and squinting won't help but they are major city and well tied to the coast.

Move over to the Mountain time zone. It's Boise State who doesn't fit the Stanford ideal, but they bring TV value. You've got AFA that is a strong academic and highly selective some TV brand value but not like the other two academies. Then you've got Colorado State who spends a lot and doesn't sustain success.

Next you've got Central Time Zone west of the Mississippi. Big brands? Not really. You've got SMU that feels like they should have gone down in the S&L crisis but had political contacts and got bailed out. You've got Tulsa highly selective and oddly for a private, it's an elite geo whatever it's called engineering program for people to go hunt and extract oil. Not sure that impresses the west coasties. 

Central east of the Mississippi. Hey there's Memphis with two vacated Final Four appearances. A really decent regional brand. Not sure they score that well outside the Mid-south. After that a passel of schools that are truly regional brands or worse, local brands.

On to the Eastern Time Zone. FAU has a Final Four. Again what's left that will talk to you is a few regional brands and local brands.

Here's the rub.

You go the pick and choose route, you've got to limp through 2024-25. It's incredibly unlikely you can line up enough money for anyone to pay early departure penalties. You aren't dealing with CUSA with Marshall, ODU, USM where there was really nothing lost on such a poor TV deal making early departure cheap.

So unless Stanford steps out, you probably announce not at 2024-25 lineup but a 2025-26 lineup but you announce it ahead of the transfer portal and early signing day.

If Stanford comes to reality or Stanford goes football independent and maybe joins WCC for other stuff then there is freedom to go as a group to MWC or AAC and declare it a merger.

 

[Arkstfan]

ADDENDUM.

I like Stanford. They are a notable engine for the US economy. They are admirable for holding athletes to or at least close to their academic standards.

But everything that has leaked about their actions in realignment has been pretty bad. No acceptance of what their market value is. It's like watching Hardcore Pawn, the Detroit show where people try to sell their gold chain that isn't gold or an old laptop with about a $50 value and refuse to take less than $200.

[NorthTexan95]

@Arkstfan - It's always great to get your insight into these topics. 

[NT80]

9 hours ago, Arkstfan said:

ADDENDUM.

I like Stanford. They are a notable engine for the US economy. They are admirable for holding athletes to or at least close to their academic standards.

But everything that has leaked about their actions in realignment has been pretty bad. No acceptance of what their market value is. It's like watching Hardcore Pawn, the Detroit show where people try to sell their gold chain that isn't gold or an old laptop with about a $50 value and refuse to take less than $200.

Agree, Stanford has overvalued themselves out of reality into isolation.  They have few options left but seem to be holding out for the ACC invite.   Again, detached from reality of their situation and location.