PAC 12 Realignment Talk Mega Thread (All 12 threads merged)

DentonLurker · August 12, 2023

If we somehow end up in a conference with Stanford, I sure hope we find a way to hit the gas pedal on the AC expansion and new basketball/volleyball arena. Could you imagine a volleyball team at the level Stanford plays at coming to our volleyball gym?

C Rod · August 12, 2023

Mike Jackson · August 12, 2023

2 hours ago, greenminer said:

That was pre-BCS/P5 era.

You can dismiss FSU fairly but Oregon State has been a member of the Pac since 1915 and has 5 conference titles. And they have played in the Rose Bowl Classic with 100k fans in attendance. Oregon State came to Denton in 1995, the Pac 10 membership didn't change until 2011 well after the death of Big East Football in 2005.

FSU came to Denton in 1977 when I wager most people on this board were barely thinking about going to college if they out of diapers. Also FSU had yet to win even an "unclaimed" national championship. Their first actual title was Anything before our time in FCS is frivolous when debating our relevance.

Mean Green 93-98 · August 12, 2023

Since two of the ACC schools opposed to adding Cal and Stanford are Clemson and Florida State, do Cal and Stanford hold on a decision to see if those schools leave? If they do, I assume they have an open door.

greenminer · August 12, 2023

50 minutes ago, Mike Jackson said:

You can dismiss FSU fairly but Oregon State has been a member of the Pac since 1915 and has 5 conference titles. And they have played in the Rose Bowl Classic with 100k fans in attendance. Oregon State came to Denton in 1995, the Pac 10 membership didn't change until 2011 well after the death of Big East Football in 2005.

FSU came to Denton in 1977 when I wager most people on this board were barely thinking about going to college if they out of diapers. Also FSU had yet to win even an "unclaimed" national championship. Their first actual title was Anything before our time in FCS is frivolous when debating our relevance.

Absolutely, but I'm not dismissing anything. If you trace this discussion back up this thread, we are responding to this:

8 hours ago, Green Otaku said:

It's kind of funny, with all the perceived elitism and snobby attitudes associated with Cal they are (IIRC) only the 2nd P5 team to agree to come to play at UNT.

If we are talking about P5 only, then I thought - by association - we are talking about everything on/after the BCS era. 1998 and onward. Power 5 and Group of 5 labels did not exist before then.

@Mike Jackson, ask @Green Otaku if you need any clarification.

EDIT: You could also cross Vandy off this list, since that was pre-BCS.

If Otaku meant major conference foes, regardless of era, all the more reason to despise the BCS era and these stereotypes/divides that came with it. This P5/G5 language is dumb, and an unfortunate reality.

Ugh!

Justin Timberlake Shrug GIF

Edited August 12, 2023 by greenminer

NorthTexasWeLove · August 12, 2023

19 minutes ago, Mean Green 93-98 said:

Since two of the ACC schools opposed to adding Cal and Stanford are Clemson and Florida State, do Cal and Stanford hold on a decision to see if those schools leave? If they do, I assume they have an open door.

If the chains get broken off the ACC it will be much more than FSU and Clemson leaving. ESPN is clearly not in this to give perceived lesser programs to the likes of BC, Wake, NC State, Syracuse, Virginia, etc 50M/year. I expect another PAC12 scenario to unfold. Not as harsh, but similar.

Fsu and Clemson are all but SEC teams.

There will be some sort of vying for Duke and UNC to go together, BIG10 or SEC. The caveat to that will be is UNC going to show any sort of loyalty towards NCState as state has shown to UNC. I doubt it. Money talks, bullshit walks. Then to the Virgina schools. No one, as clear as dat as ever, cares about academic. So, VA is on dangerous grounds here. Tech draws more eyeballs and fields more competitive football, though VA has the clear advantages in basketball. Wouldn't surprise me to see them get split, Tech to SEC and VA to Big10. But VA might get left out to dry. Outside of that, no one cares about those other programs outside of those very fans. GaTech, Lville, Pitt, BC, Cuse, etc. All sort of meh. But who the hell knows.

C Rod · August 12, 2023

According to Bleacher Report ACC is one vote short of adding Cal & Stanford

meanrob · August 12, 2023

Been saying this for a while but it will be interesting to see how it goes over with these fan bases. I mean Nebraska is still pretty delusional ten years later.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/columnist/dan-wolken/2023/08/11/pac-12-doomed-leaders-arrogance-envy-big-12/70577317007/

NT80 · August 12, 2023

2 hours ago, greenminer said:

Absolutely, but I'm not dismissing anything. If you trace this discussion back up this thread, we are responding to this:

If we are talking about P5 only, then I thought - by association - we are talking about everything on/after the BCS era. 1998 and onward. Power 5 and Group of 5 labels did not exist before then.

@Mike Jackson, ask @Green Otaku if you need any clarification.

EDIT: You could also cross Vandy off this list, since that was pre-BCS.

If Otaku meant major conference foes, regardless of era, all the more reason to despise the BCS era and these stereotypes/divides that came with it. This P5/G5 language is dumb, and an unfortunate reality.

Ugh!

I took it to mean major conference foes; maybe that wasn't the intent? We hosted Florida St and Oregon St in Denton. But NT also hosted major programs at Texas Stadium and the Cotton Bowl: Okla St, Miss St, Texas A$M, Kansas, BYU, etc. We are not a program with a meaningless history.

NT80 · August 12, 2023

1 hour ago, C Rod said:

According to Bleacher Report ACC is one vote short of adding Cal & Stanford

Was doesn't a Stanford donor just money-whip one of those programs to change their vote to a Yes?

Maybe a mystery donation of say of $30M to upgrade a Florida State athletic facility?

FSU has been crying lately about being money short anyway, and wanting out of the ACC to get more revenue.

Green Otaku · August 12, 2023

3 hours ago, greenminer said:

Absolutely, but I'm not dismissing anything. If you trace this discussion back up this thread, we are responding to this:

If we are talking about P5 only, then I thought - by association - we are talking about everything on/after the BCS era. 1998 and onward. Power 5 and Group of 5 labels did not exist before then.

@Mike Jackson, ask @Green Otaku if you need any clarification.

EDIT: You could also cross Vandy off this list, since that was pre-BCS.

If Otaku meant major conference foes, regardless of era, all the more reason to despise the BCS era and these stereotypes/divides that came with it. This P5/G5 language is dumb, and an unfortunate reality.

Ugh!

I clarified later that in my mind I was thinking of P5s that had come to our new stadium.

6 hours ago, Green Otaku said:

Whoops, meant to put at Apogee/DATCU.

Looking back on things it's kind of wild that we got teams like Baylor and Tech to come to Fouts.

GMG_Dallas · August 12, 2023

9 hours ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

If the chains get broken off the ACC it will be much more than FSU and Clemson leaving. ESPN is clearly not in this to give perceived lesser programs to the likes of BC, Wake, NC State, Syracuse, Virginia, etc 50M/year. I expect another PAC12 scenario to unfold. Not as harsh, but similar.

Fsu and Clemson are all but SEC teams.

There will be some sort of vying for Duke and UNC to go together, BIG10 or SEC. The caveat to that will be is UNC going to show any sort of loyalty towards NCState as state has shown to UNC. I doubt it. Money talks, bullshit walks. Then to the Virgina schools. No one, as clear as dat as ever, cares about academic. So, VA is on dangerous grounds here. Tech draws more eyeballs and fields more competitive football, though VA has the clear advantages in basketball. Wouldn't surprise me to see them get split, Tech to SEC and VA to Big10. But VA might get left out to dry. Outside of that, no one cares about those other programs outside of those very fans. GaTech, Lville, Pitt, BC, Cuse, etc. All sort of meh. But who the hell knows.

I would bet money FSU and Clemson don't go to the SEC until closer to 2036 UNLESS the ACC gets enough votes to blow the whole thing up. ESPN owns both SEC and ACC media rights deals. They have no reason to facilitate those two programs going from ACC to SEC when they'll have to pay them significantly more than they currently have to. The only reason Colorado, AZ, AZ State, and Utah went to the BIG 12 at the full BIG 12 rate is because ESPN got them at the same rate they initially offered the PAC anyways which is just about $30 million. The only way FSU and Clemson go to the SEC before the mid-2030s (other than votes to blow it up) is if the B1G (FOX) makes a huge push for them. Until ESPN is at risk of losing them, they're staying put. The other ACC schools know when FSU and Clemson get out, the thing blows up, and they're all facing the same fate as the PAC4. Those schools have until about 2033-2034 to figure things out. By then, I suspect ESPN money will have dried up for the ACC as it did for the PAC 12 since the BIG12 is up in 2031 and SEC in 2034. Until then, FSU and Clemson are ACC schools.

C Rod · August 12, 2023

7 hours ago, NT80 said:

Was doesn't a Stanford donor just money-whip one of those programs to change their vote to a Yes?

Maybe a mystery donation of say of $30M to upgrade a Florida State athletic facility?

FSU has been crying lately about being money short anyway, and wanting out of the ACC to get more revenue.

Good question. I’d imagine it’s a few reasons. First, the addition of Cal and Stanford doesn’t move the needle and would result in a lower share of TV revenue per year for the current ACC schools. Cal & Stanford clearly aren’t desperate enough to pull an SMU and forgo ACC TV revenue for 5 years.

Secondly, this puts pressure on ND to give up their independence and join the ACC as a full member… which they clearly don’t want to. ND does move the needle and their addition to the ACC would further solidify the ACC’s position as a Power conference, leading to a much larger TV deal.

cousin oliver · August 12, 2023

1 hour ago, GMG_Dallas said:

By then, I suspect ESPN money will have dried up for the ACC as it did for the PAC 12 since the BIG12 is up in 2031 and SEC in 2034.

This x 100. Isn't ESPN laying off many long time employees and slashing budgets as we speak? I also read somewhere Apple is potentially buying them as well. They seem to be on faulty ground to me.

emmitt01 · August 12, 2023

9 hours ago, meanrob said:

Been saying this for a while but it will be interesting to see how it goes over with these fan bases. I mean Nebraska is still pretty delusional ten years later.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/columnist/dan-wolken/2023/08/11/pac-12-doomed-leaders-arrogance-envy-big-12/70577317007/

This is a great article.

Now I wonder if the author can explain how Texas, who has every possible advantage, has a perpetual mantra of “this year we’re back…no, for real this time”

NorthTexasWeLove · August 12, 2023

1 hour ago, GMG_Dallas said:

I would bet money FSU and Clemson don't go to the SEC until closer to 2036 UNLESS the ACC gets enough votes to blow the whole thing up. ESPN owns both SEC and ACC media rights deals. They have no reason to facilitate those two programs going from ACC to SEC when they'll have to pay them significantly more than they currently have to. The only reason Colorado, AZ, AZ State, and Utah went to the BIG 12 at the full BIG 12 rate is because ESPN got them at the same rate they initially offered the PAC anyways which is just about $30 million. The only way FSU and Clemson go to the SEC before the mid-2030s (other than votes to blow it up) is if the B1G (FOX) makes a huge push for them. Until ESPN is at risk of losing them, they're staying put. The other ACC schools know when FSU and Clemson get out, the thing blows up, and they're all facing the same fate as the PAC4. Those schools have until about 2033-2034 to figure things out. By then, I suspect ESPN money will have dried up for the ACC as it did for the PAC 12 since the BIG12 is up in 2031 and SEC in 2034. Until then, FSU and Clemson are ACC schools.

Yes, that is why I started off by saying 'IF the chains get broken off'.

cousin oliver · August 12, 2023

GMG_Dallas · August 12, 2023

2 minutes ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

Yes, that is why I started off by saying 'IF the chains get broken off'.

My reply was mostly directed at this statement.

11 hours ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

Fsu and Clemson are all but SEC teams.

11 minutes ago, cousin oliver said:

This x 100. Isn't ESPN laying off many long time employees and slashing budgets as we speak? I also read somewhere Apple is potentially buying them as well. They seem to be on faulty ground to me.

Yes they are. Obviously they can't just stop buying media deals or they'll run out of programming but some "P5s" will be left out again in 2036.

NorthTexasWeLove · August 12, 2023

9 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

My reply was mostly directed at this statement.

Yes they are. Obviously they can't just stop buying media deals or they'll run out of programming but some "P5s" will be left out again in 2036.

I got you.. but they are. Everyone knows it. When is TBD.

C Rod · August 12, 2023

I'm with Jim.

GMG_Dallas · August 12, 2023

21 minutes ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

I got you.. but they are. Everyone knows it. When is TBD.

If before 2036, the ACC can get Notre Dame as a full member and boost their media deal, I think they stay. Otherwise, ESPN and others will likely lowball the ACC for their next media deal, watch it collapse if the ACC rejects the deal for more money, and cherry pick who they actually want.

Edited August 12, 2023 by GMG_Dallas

NorthTexasWeLove · August 12, 2023

3 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

If before 2036, the ACC can get Notre Dame as a full member and boost their media deal, I think they stay. Otherwise, ESPN and others will likely lowball the ACC for their next media deal, watch it collapse if the ACC doesn't rejects the deal for more money, and cherry pick who they actually want.

TV deals for the P2 at that point in time will be upwards of 60M+, maybe even touching 70M. There is a 0% chance a network will be paying that to the ACC. The ACC has 14 full time member institutions. My bet is that half, at minimum, will be gone at this point.

Dannymacfan · August 12, 2023

How about this?

AAC West
SMU
UNT
Rice
UTSA
UAB
Tulane
Tulsa

GMG_Dallas · August 12, 2023

10 minutes ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

TV deals for the P2 at that point in time will be upwards of 60M+, maybe even touching 70M. There is a 0% chance a network will be paying that to the ACC. The ACC has 14 full time member institutions. My bet is that half, at minimum, will be gone at this point.

I think even higher than that. ESPN and FOX are probably tired of paying some of the smaller brand P5s all this money when it's just a few huge programs carrying the conference's value. All this talk about no school ever dropping from P5 to G5 is over with. I feel no sympathy as a UNT fan. Just enjoying the chaos.

NT80 · August 12, 2023

Is there no interest from Cal/Stanford joining the Big12?

The Big12 already pushed to get the 4-corner PAC schools. I would think Cal/Stanford and Cali-SFO media market would be a good addition to complete the set for the Pacific time slot/pod, no?