PAC 12 Realignment Talk Mega Thread (All 12 threads merged)

[C Rod]

12 minutes ago, Glory to the Green said:

This sounds good to me. 
 

 

Forget Michael Jordan, if Mike Aresco can pull this off he’ll forever be the GOAT in my eyes. 🙏🏼

[Green Otaku]

1 hour ago, wardly said:

Stanford and Cal to ACC?

If that happens that would be a huge pressure release for the AAC. 

[laxtonto]

Couple of things people are misrepresenting regarding the Pac4

1. The current CFP auto status is only for 2 more years and it should already be a foregone conclusion that the CFP is moving to a Power 4 instead of keeping the designation for whatever frakenstein setup they end up with

2. There is no real TV market or escalators that the Pac4 can use to secure a landing spot that will get there future landing spot to be remotely close to their current payout for the next 8 to 10 years. So even if you are looking at 250M plus the NCAA credits, that would have to roll into their next decade to augment their new conference payout to just break even with what they are at. Going from 20M to 5-7M is a disaster for their budgets. So they are flush with cash but cant use it for anything but keeping themselves (nd for many their massive debt payments) afloat.

[UNTLifer]

12 hours ago, UNTLifer said:

How about them Rangers?

Up 5-3 in the bottom of the 8th at Oakland. 

[Mike Jackson]

19 hours ago, TIgreen01 said:

Nobody is fixing this football conference problem without first addressing the how schools are funded.

Most universities don't play FBS and do a fine job educating.  So to me that argument holds no water.  Taxes fund public institutions, and private institutions still receive tuition fee paid by government backed grants and loans.  So for the most part these schools don't lack funding.  The Ivy League and Patriot Leagues could drop FCS football tomorrow with minimal impact.  You really think UNT substantially shrinks if we dropped to FCS?  I grew up in Denton as a football fan and I had no clue that at one time we played at level that could gotten us into Bowl games with the old Big 8, Big East or etc.  Your average student in the DFW North Central Texas region has no clue what level of football we play nor has watched a game. 

Edited August 8, 2023 by Mike Jackson

[NT80]

1 hour ago, Green Otaku said:

If that happens that would be a huge pressure release for the AAC. 

The best thing about all this PAC turmoil is the Smut fans have stopped visiting and gloating. 
They are too busy crying.  😢 

[cousin oliver]

 

[cousin oliver]

 

[TheColonyEagle]

So if I'm an (enter sport here) recruit and I'm looking at going to Stanford or Cal and they're in the ACC...

"Sorry Momma....if you want to watch a road game.....check out flights from SFO to Raleigh."

I just think that is an absolute disaster waiting to happen for Stanford and Cal recruiting wise. Who wants to fly 3,000 miles for every single conference road game? 

[El Paso Eagle]

5 minutes ago, TheColonyEagle said:

So if I'm an (enter sport here) recruit and I'm looking at going to Stanford or Cal and they're in the ACC...

"Sorry Momma....if you want to watch a road game.....check out flights from SFO to Raleigh."

I just think that is an absolute disaster waiting to happen for Stanford and Cal recruiting wise. Who wants to fly 3,000 miles for every single conference road game? 

Is there a chance we could see the four PAC teams join other conferences as football-only members? 

[TheColonyEagle]

3 minutes ago, El Paso Eagle said:

Is there a chance we could see the four PAC teams join other conferences as football-only members? 

that would probably make more sense (travel wise)

But we probably need to stop trying to inject logic into any of these discussions.....

[TIgreen01]

9 hours ago, Mike Jackson said:

Most universities don't play FBS and do a fine job educating.  So to me that argument holds no water.  Taxes fund public institutions, and private institutions still receive tuition fee paid by government backed grants and loans.  So for the most part these schools don't lack funding.  The Ivy League and Patriot Leagues could drop FCS football tomorrow with minimal impact.  You really think UNT substantially shrinks if we dropped to FCS?  I grew up in Denton as a football fan and I had no clue that at one time we played at level that could gotten us into Bowl games with the old Big 8, Big East or etc.  Your average student in the North Texas region has no clue what level of football we play nor has watched a game. 

If government funding pays for everything, why do schools so aggressively seek donations?

[TheColonyEagle]

Just now, TIgreen01 said:

If government funding pays for everything, why do schools so aggressively seek donations?

[NT80]

24 minutes ago, El Paso Eagle said:

Is there a chance we could see the four PAC teams join other conferences as football-only members? 

Hawaii is in the MWC as football only and Big West for other sports.   BYU was Indy in football and WCC for other sports.  That is probably best option for Stanford and Cal.  Ore St and Wash St to MWC.  

[MeanGreenGlory]

42 minutes ago, cousin oliver said:

 

It’s not guaranteed that any will land in the AAC right now. If anything, it seems like Oregon State and Washington State joining the AAC while Cal and Stanford do their own thing is a realistic possibility at the moment.
 

However, I find it challenging to believe that if Cal and Stanford actually joined the AAC as this guy suggests is a possibility in point #2, that Washington State and Oregon State would go to the MWC instead of tagging along to the AAC. Knowing that Cal and Stanford are the ones playing hardest to get, if they’re on board with the AAC, why wouldn’t all four want to consolidate their “power” into a single, stable media deal for better revenue and prestige?
 

Either way, I’m rooting for Aresco to pull this off and at least get Oregon State and Washington State. If he can get Cal and Stanford as well, the American will be in a fantastic position. Getting all four would also open the door to realistically poach the best of the Mountain West when their exit fees drop to create more regional travel. 

[DentonLurker]

49 minutes ago, TheColonyEagle said:

I just think that is an absolute disaster waiting to happen for Stanford and Cal recruiting wise. Who wants to fly 3,000 miles for every single conference road game?

I agree with you completely. Especially when you think about it from non-football/basketball sport perspective. I really just don't see how schools will even be able to sustain this. Travel budgets are going to get ridiculous. Time away from campus is going to get ridiculous. For football, I don't think it's a huge deal. You're chartering flights, traveling out on a Friday, back after the game on Saturday. That's not that different. Just longer flights, I guess. For all the other sports that would be flying commercial flights (outside of a few basketball teams with access to private jets), it just seems insane.

[akriesman]

With all this realignment talk again, its getting difficult to focus on the upcoming season. The decision made by the Pac-4 schools is potentially going to have a huge impact on NT/AAC. SMU can do whatever they want and I don't care. But, I don't want to lose any of the other current AAC schools.

[meanrob]

53 minutes ago, MeanGreenGlory said:

It’s not guaranteed that any will land in the AAC right now. If anything, it seems like Oregon State and Washington State joining the AAC while Cal and Stanford do their own thing is a realistic possibility at the moment.
 

However, I find it challenging to believe that if Cal and Stanford actually joined the AAC as this guy suggests is a possibility in point #2, that Washington State and Oregon State would go to the MWC instead of tagging along to the AAC. Knowing that Cal and Stanford are the ones playing hardest to get, if they’re on board with the AAC, why wouldn’t all four want to consolidate their “power” into a single, stable media deal for better revenue and prestige?
 

Either way, I’m rooting for Aresco to pull this off and at least get Oregon State and Washington State. If he can get Cal and Stanford as well, the American will be in a fantastic position. Getting all four would also open the door to realistically poach the best of the Mountain West when their exit fees drop to create more regional travel. 

The only reason I see for the AAC to take OSU and WSU is to maybe keep them out of the MWC? Besides OSU baseball these are not successful programs in bigger markets that draw people. There’s zero interests in them as BBall programs. I just don’t know if they’re this mediocre with good money, how they’ll do with one fifth of that money. 
 

How big do we want the conference to get? At a certain point it becomes tough to get things done. Do we want a North Texas game vs WSU at 9pm CST or even later? 
 

If it means all four, I’d take them. But just the two, I think we are giving them too much credit, they are/were P5 programs only because of association. 

[ColoradoEagle]

6 minutes ago, meanrob said:

The only reason I see for the AAC to take OSU and WSU is to maybe keep them out of the MWC? Besides OSU baseball these are not successful programs in bigger markets that draw people. There’s zero interests in them as BBall programs. I just don’t know if they’re this mediocre with good money, how they’ll do with one fifth of that money. 
 

How big do we want the conference to get? At a certain point it becomes tough to get things done. Do we want a North Texas game vs WSU at 9pm CST or even later? 
 

If it means all four, I’d take them. But just the two, I think we are giving them too much credit, they are/were P5 programs only because of association. 

Agree with most of this, however if the AAC is going to expand, this is the moment to do it.

Even if Stanford/Cal go their own way, taking OSU and WSU could have a ripple effect that allows the AAC to grab SDSU, Boise State, CSU, and AFA (immediately or eventually once the media contract runs out). That would solidify the AAC is the #5 conference and nipping at the B12's heels. 

[meanrob]

2 minutes ago, ColoradoEagle said:

Agree with most of this, however if the AAC is going to expand, this is the moment to do it.

Even if Stanford/Cal go their own way, taking OSU and WSU could have a ripple effect that allows the AAC to grab SDSU, Boise State, CSU, and AFA (immediately or eventually once the media contract runs out). That would solidify the AAC is the #5 conference and nipping at the B12's heels. 

That’s the only way this makes sense, although I’m not sure you can predict those dominos will fall. That would probably put us in a western division of the AAC though. 

[Jonnyeagle]

All I am saying is that we should get a full share equal to what OState and WSU get.  Stanford is a different animal.

[Matt]

4 minutes ago, Jonnyeagle said:

All I am saying is that we should get a full share equal to what OState and WSU get.  Stanford is a different animal.

This guy seems to have a different idea 🤣

[MeanGreenGlory]

37 minutes ago, ColoradoEagle said:

Agree with most of this, however if the AAC is going to expand, this is the moment to do it.

Even if Stanford/Cal go their own way, taking OSU and WSU could have a ripple effect that allows the AAC to grab SDSU, Boise State, CSU, and AFA (immediately or eventually once the media contract runs out). That would solidify the AAC is the #5 conference and nipping at the B12's heels. 

This 100%.

[Jonnyeagle]

TV Contract Money/Exposure

This category will not be changing at this point, but it’s still an important one because money accounts for a lot.

The current AAC contract (almost $7 million per team) became the benchmark for Group of 5 media deals when they announced their new deal a year before the Mountain West. However, the contract will likely change once Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF leave.

The Mountain West media deal is $270 million total, which comes out to about $4 million for the ten teams under normal circumstances (not Hawaii or Boise State), a massive upgrade from the $1.1 million in the past deal.

However, more goes into the contract than just money, even though money is the bottom line, as this article explains a bit. The AAC took more money ($1 billion) for less exposure (most appearing on ESPN+). On the other hand, the MWC secured a smaller deal financially and traded being the late game on ESPN for potentially better time slots with Fox, as well as sticking with CBS Sports for their secondary game package. Another big difference is the length of the contract. The American is locked in for 12 years, while the Mountain West decided to go for a short-term deal (6 years), citing the ever-changing media landscape, and opted for flexibility in light of that.

read more:  https://www.mwcconnection.com/2023/8/2/23761671/mountain-west-american-athletic-conference-2022-football-season-comparison

[GMG_Dallas]

51 minutes ago, ColoradoEagle said:

Agree with most of this, however if the AAC is going to expand, this is the moment to do it.

Even if Stanford/Cal go their own way, taking OSU and WSU could have a ripple effect that allows the AAC to grab SDSU, Boise State, CSU, and AFA (immediately or eventually once the media contract runs out). That would solidify the AAC is the #5 conference and nipping at the B12's heels. 

Exactly this. Adding OSU/WSU is an investment for the future. The MWC and AAC are in a battle for 5th place and adding any combination of the 2 PACs will create a gap that will only get bigger over time, especially with the SEC/B1G/BIG12 seemingly shutting their doors until the ACC collapse. If the AAC can clearly become number 5 with the markets we'd have, a better TV deal will follow and the top end MWC schools will be looking for a way in.

I personally don't see Cal going independent and if Stanford is to stay in a conference, I think the AAC with the other 3 PACs, Tulane, and Rice is their most likely destination. That AAC West wouldn't be terrible travel wise considering there would be 4 west coast teams and they were just traveling to play Colorado and the Arzionas which are already a significant distance away. Regarding the ACC, I don't see why either one of the 4 PACs would want to join a conference teetering on their own destruction. They would be going through this all over again in just a few years only they'd be locked in until 2036.