PAC 12 Realignment Talk Mega Thread (All 12 threads merged)

Cerebus · August 7, 2023

21 hours ago, TheColonyEagle said:

But what happens when 4/5 of this group decides that 1/5 isn’t relevant anymore and they want to eliminate their say. How difficult would that be? I guess they could take them to court…

The NCAA could propose a rule to change the A5 to the A4. Or they could propose a rule to add the AAC to the autonomy status. They could propose any rule they want. I don't know which of those is more likely to happen, or how the member institutions would vote. I do know that right now what ever the PAC is, it has autonomy status.

Also don't forget that CFP's base (non performance) payout is higher to autonomy conferences.

20 hours ago, NT80 said:

Don’t schools that leave the Conference forfeit their part to the remaining members? And what happens to the units if the conference is dissolved?

Yes, the units are paid to the conferences themselves and then they redistribute. No idea on the second one.

18 hours ago, GMG_Dallas said:

AppleTV+ is $6.99 per month. The deal would have brought enough new AppleTV+ subscribers to get the desired numbers. That entry price is not a deterent to many. The PAC add-on of $20 is maybe a tad steep for some but when you consider the PAC12 network currently requires a FuboTV subscription which starts at $75/month plus the add-on, for those who only get TV to watch college sports, it's not bad.

I think the issue is more that the Apple deal had a top end payout of $50 million per school and the B1G is projected to pay $80-$100 million. For the biggest former PAC programs like USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington, that's too big of a difference. The PAC12 network had an estimated subscriber count of 14.8 million in 2020. Apparently the top end Apple deal tier was 5 million subscribers for $50million per team. Why would the biggest PAC programs sign a deal with a cap of $50 million per school? You can't set that low of a cap in a tiered system when the other networks are getting more than that guaranteed.

How many of those current PAC12 subscriptions are based on the channel being bundled with something else the subscriber actually wanted? I don't know. But I do know the former PAC presidents had serious doubts on how many would move over to the bundled stand alone Apple model.

Cerebus · August 7, 2023

15 hours ago, Salsa_Verde said:

Why would any MWC institution pay 34 million dollars in exit fees to go to a conference with no GOR deal? Or want to be part of a George Kliavkoff run conference, that guy just ran the conference into the ground and you’re saying the presidents are going to vote to leave a stable conference for a once that is in complete flux? Far fetched. The PAC is over, the MWC has the leverage here.

Cause they don't have to pay anything as long as the PAC invites enough members?

Cerebus · August 7, 2023

13 hours ago, El Paso Eagle said:

If this happens, Washington State will go to the MWC, and Stanford and Cal go independent for football.

.

On 8/6/2023 at 9:16 AM, Cerebus said:

This is a pretty good prognostication, except I don't think Cal can go the indy route. They took on half a billion in construction bonds and they need any conference money they can get.

Remember being in a conference isn't just about the tv money, when you are a FBS conference member you get:

Conference distribution of the NCAA tournament credits

Conference distribution of the CFP playoff credits

Conference distribution of the TV contract

For Cal that will be millions a year to give up on, when they have a huge debt hanging over athletics.

I would guess the third MWC school to be left behind in that scenario would be Wyoming. Remember the PAC Apple deal is based on subscription sales, and the state has about half the population that of Denton county.

Cerebus · August 7, 2023

10 hours ago, Green Otaku said:

9 votes I think. They need 3/4 of the conference to vote in favor of dissolving the conference.

They only need six votes.

Cerebus · August 7, 2023

3 hours ago, El Paso Eagle said:

For those thinking the PAC, in any new form, will remain a "P5"

Who thinks they will remain a P5? There isn't even a P5 anymore, it's a P2 with some assortment of tiers beneath them.

I would bet that the PAC will remain an FBS conference with autonomy status. Right now that gets them extra CFP money.

If anyone should be sweating right now its the MWC teams.

UNTLifer · August 7, 2023

Anyone thinking the NCAA is going to step in needs to put the bottle down and get a good night's sleep. A rural Arkansas nursing home has more teeth than the NCAA.

Cerebus · August 7, 2023

20 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

Anyone thinking the NCAA is going to step in needs to put the bottle down and get a good night's sleep. A rural Arkansas nursing home has more teeth than the NCAA.

The courts have neutered the NCAA. What exactly are they supposed to do? They try to stop any of this and the big schools will either beat them in court or go form a new governance model they completely run.

UNTLifer · August 7, 2023

It was mentioned above that the NCAA should make some recommendations. I was just replying that they don't have any teeth.

Green Otaku · August 7, 2023

1 hour ago, NT80 said:

Smut and Tulane’s interest is all based on the PAC title. But does that still mean anything now? And like Aresco said you’re risking stability for an unknown streaming-only media that requires subscriptions to make $. Is Dallas going to buy a PAC streaming subscription to see Smut play in Pullman? No.

Right now I think the PAC still holds some of that name recognition. It will slowly fade as years pass and streaming only makes it more obscure. I still think it comes down to how much money they can guarantee.

Green Otaku · August 7, 2023

50 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

They only need six votes.

6 for rule changes yes. I was talking about votes needed to dissolve the conference, which I think is 9.

Jonnyeagle · August 7, 2023

Jonnyeagle · August 7, 2023

C Rod · August 7, 2023

Jonnyeagle · August 7, 2023

Cerebus · August 7, 2023

17 minutes ago, Green Otaku said:

6 for rule changes yes. I was talking about votes needed to dissolve the conference, which I think is 9.

Exit fees and resignations are in the by laws. With enough votes they can change the rules to whatever they want.

GMG_Dallas · August 7, 2023

1 hour ago, Cerebus said:

How many of those current PAC12 subscriptions are based on the channel being bundled with something else the subscriber actually wanted? I don't know. But I do know the former PAC presidents had serious doubts on how many would move over to the bundled stand alone Apple model.

I think the bundled stand alone Apple price is too high to achieve the desired numbers of 5 million subscribers for $50million per school. The desired number of 1.7 million subscribers for a payout of $31.7 million per school was attainable and likely still is if the Apple subscription cost drops a bit. If Apple wants college footbal l, they may need to lower their cut of the subscription fees and I think they will. MLS has a subscription cost of $14.99 per month and has reached over 1 million subscribers, granted Messi coming over has surely helped that.

Looking at pure viewership numbers, the PAC4 still has programs that generate eyeballs.

Cerebus · August 7, 2023

3 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

The desired number of 1.7 million subscribers for a payout of $31.7 million per school was attainable and likely still is if the Apple subscription cost drops a bit.

A whole lot of PAC presidents didn't think it was likely.

Monkeypox · August 7, 2023

1 hour ago, Cerebus said:

Who thinks they will remain a P5? There isn't even a P5 anymore, it's a P2 with some assortment of tiers beneath them.

Yep. The only thing surprising about this to me is how quickly the consolidation/separation is happening. The super league is forming and a whole bunch of Haves are finding out they’re just Have Nots that have been propped up by their affiliations with the true money programs.

GMG_Dallas · August 7, 2023

11 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

A whole lot of PAC presidents didn't think it was likely.

Arizona is also next to last in Pac12 football viewership. Oregon and Washington knew they're worth more than the top end of $50 million so they went and got more. Those who went to the Big 12 got the same amount as 1.7 million subscribers would have earned them in the Pac deal. Their cowardice is costing them a potential $19 million per year by going to the Big12. They would have gotten the 1.7 million subs to meet Big12 numbers had they stayed together.

Edited August 7, 2023 by GMG_Dallas

Mean Green 93-98 · August 7, 2023

4 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Oregon and Washington knew they're worth more than the top end of $50 million so they went and got more.

You do know those two schools are only getting a half share in the B1G, right? USC and UCLA getting a full share.

NorthTexasWeLove · August 7, 2023

Just now, Mean Green 93-98 said:

You do know those two schools are only getting a half share in the B1G, right? USC and UCLA getting a full share.

Temporarily. I think they start getting a full share in 2025.

Cerebus · August 7, 2023

7 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

They would have gotten the 1.7 million subs to meet Big12 numbers had they stayed together.

You can think they would have, I don't think they would have.

The PAC presidents, who have a lot more information than you or I have, would still be in the PAC if they thought they could have made the money.

GMG_Dallas · August 7, 2023

7 minutes ago, Mean Green 93-98 said:

You do know those two schools are only getting a half share in the B1G, right? USC and UCLA getting a full share.

"Factoring in other media revenue streams over a 10-year period, Oregon president Karl Scholz said, "We anticipate averaging over $50 million just from direct media rights.""

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38135852/big-ten-adds-oregon-washington-newest-members-blow-pac-12?platform=amp

Yes, initially for Big10 shares alone.

Edited August 7, 2023 by GMG_Dallas

GMG_Dallas · August 7, 2023

14 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

You can think they would have, I don't think they would have.

The PAC presidents, who have a lot more information than you or I have, would still be in the PAC if they thought they could have made the money.

It's ego. That's all it is. They want the higher guaranteed money because it looks better. Also, if your numbers suck it hurts future negotiations but at the root of this, it's just ego. This is just like NFL players fighting tooth and nail for higher contracts when half of it is incentives instead of taking a smaller contract with more guaranteed money. We don't do subscription based tiers, we're the freaking PAC12! They could have been Kirk Cousins but they chose to be Ezekiel Elliott.

They had a deal. They wanted more. Some chose to be Kirk Cousins and some ended up with nothing.

Edited August 7, 2023 by GMG_Dallas