PAC 12 Realignment Talk Mega Thread (All 12 threads merged)

[DentonLurker]

38 minutes ago, southsideguy said:

they wont have the a-5 status very long with adding MWC teams and the bottom feeders of the pac12

Agreed. There’s no way the PAC gets through this with A5 status.

[Green Otaku]

Just like the crumbling of the PAC the future will be dictated by what kind of media deal they can offer. Any deal they can strike with Apple has to make financial sense to make the jump. If they can offer enough it will make teams jump. It'd be hard to imagine that with everything they lost that their deal wouldn't go down in $$. They also have to overcome the big exit fee hurtles. 

I tried warning people on here that even a wounded PAC still held the cards. Lots of details to work through, and not a lot of time on their side. So I'd imagine anything that happens needs to happen fast. We are not out of the woods here. 

[Green Otaku]

1 hour ago, MeanGreenGlory said:

There are a lot of rumors circling on Twitter/X. 
 

The one that is gaining traction is that the PAC schools realize they still have the A5 status which is very valuable. Rumor is the PAC is considering merging with the top MWC schools and some AAC schools to maintain the name and A5 status. Apple is reportedly still in the hunt for content so *a* deal of some sort is reportedly still on the table. 
 

I *really* hope that Aresco is being aggressive here to get this deal instead of the MW and, subsequently, the A5 status for the American schools. If ESPN is as angry as reports suggest about not having west coast content, and Aresco has a good relationship with them as it appears he does, maybe they’ll come into the mix and provide the dollars necessary to make this deal go the AAC’s way. 
 

With where we are today, UNT either comes out of this in an even better position with a strong conference and A5 status, or in CUSA 3.0. Hopefully it’s the former. 

 

The ESPN relationship might end up being a key point.  I still find it very unlikely, but if they wanted a deal that had ESPN in it, what could the AAC offer?  Less than 1% chance of it happening, but I hope Aresco is doing what he can. 

[GrayEagle]

I knew that Mike Aresco had been working behind the scenes but as good as he is I was skeptical that he could pull anything off that bordered on getting the four remaining teams from the leftovers of Pacific 12.  

I'm pleased that he might have gotten football but there are other sports that would be burdensome for our eastern teams.    That's why I'm dubious that this will happen.  I'm also curious as to why it hasn't been publicized by now.  

The markets wouldn't be too bad.  Two are in San Francisco; one is in Portland, OR and the other in Spokane, WA.  However, I don't believe that Mike could renegotiate the ESPN contract  in this period of time to get the Pac 4 the 25 million dollars that they want.  I mean we have to wait a year or two to get the full amount and even if Mike has talked to ESPN about the western teams, I can't believe that that they would go for it that quickly.

Translation:  I'll believe it after I see it.

 

[Dannymacfan]

2 hours ago, Billy Clyde said:

No chance in Hades.

How can you be so certain?  A week ago they said the Pac 12 would never go away.

[Dannymacfan]

 

[GMG_Dallas]

9 hours ago, MeanGreenGlory said:

If ESPN is as angry as reports suggest about not having west coast content,

I read the other day this was a major issue for ESPN. With USC, UCLA, Oregon, and UW going to the B1G, all the major west coast markets belong to FOX. My question is, if ESPN was so concerned about west coast markets, why were they not a bigger player in the PAC media deal negotiations before all of this crumbled to begin with? I'm assuming they just didn't have the money to pay what that collection of schools wanted.

[southsideguy]

dont worry if we lose SMU, Tulane and Rice we can always replace them with LaTech, Middle Tenn, FIU....🤮

[RiseUNT]

53 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

I read the other day this was a major issue for ESPN. With USC, UCLA, Oregon, and UW going to the B1G, all the major west coast markets belong to FOX. My question is, if ESPN was so concerned about west coast markets, why were they not a bigger player in the PAC media deal negotiations before all of this crumbled to begin with? I'm assuming they just didn't have the money to pay what that collection of schools wanted.

It seemed like PAC 12 was tired of only playing on tv after 9 eastern time. For a few years there I didn’t watch a single pac 12 game.

[Cerebus]

10 hours ago, MeanGreenGlory said:

The one that is gaining traction is that the PAC schools realize they still have the A5 status which is very valuable. Rumor is the PAC is considering merging with the top MWC schools and some AAC schools to maintain the name and A5 status. Apple is reportedly still in the hunt for content so *a* deal of some sort is reportedly still on the table. 

I *really* hope that Aresco is being aggressive here to get this deal instead of the MW and, subsequently, the A5 status for the American schools.

That's not how that works.  A5 was not given to the instutions in the PAC, it was given to the PAC by name.  If those schools leave the PAC for the MWC/AAC/etc they don't bring that status with them. 

 

 

10 hours ago, southsideguy said:

they wont have the a-5 status very long with adding MWC teams and the bottom feeders of the pac12

There is no mechanism to change/strip A5 status.

When the NIL fiasco first started brewing the P5 demanded the NCAA propose a rule change that gave, SPECIFICALLY, only the B1G, SEC, ACC, PAC, and B12 extra rights to propose and vote on certain legislation. 

The vote was put to the FBS conferences AS A WHOLE, but the G5 knew if they voted no the P5 might leave the NCAA.  So they didn't reject the proposal. 

 

 

10 hours ago, Billy Clyde said:

They’ll probably add SMU, Tulane, and 6 schools from the MWC. Then there will be a MWC/AAC merger.

They will take six from the MWC so the departing MWC school can kill exit fees, but I am not sure why they would take two small private schools from the AAC.

They may well take a couple schools from the AAC, but remember the Apple deal is based on COMPENSATION PER SUBSCRIPTION.  If the PAC looks at AAC schools they will want people who can sell a lot of the Apple+ PAC add ons. 

 

 

59 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

I'm assuming they just didn't have the money to pay what that collection of schools wanted.

The B12 commissioner's genius here was to realize the media market was drying up because the mouse could no longer strong arm ESPN fees onto every basic cable sub, and the cable sub market is dwindling anyway.   So he knew Disney/Fox could probably only afford the B12 or the PAC.  He got the deal first, now there isn't money left over for a PAC deal. 

[Mike Jackson]

14 hours ago, MeanGreenGlory said:

Rumors that ESPN is pushing BIG12 to add someone like SDSU

I think that would fall on deaf ear in the Big 12 without bumping up the per team payout for 12 that are already in the fold this season.     I also think if ESPN is watching their budget they are opting for the cheapest way to add games of the forgotten PAC 4 to their portfolio with minimal cost.  Getting them into the AAC or MWC are the best options for ESPN and CBS  to save money acquiring their games.

[wardly]

I looked into my crystal ball this morning and saw Stanford and Cal going independent, the MWC voting to abolish their poison pill for leaving their conference, and 8 of their 11 members joining the new PAC 10. New Mexico ,SJSU, and a third school were left behind. My crystal ball clouded up because of global warming and I was unable to determine the 3 rd program.

[Cerebus]

11 minutes ago, wardly said:

I looked into my crystal ball this morning and saw Stanford and Cal going independent, the MWC voting to abolish their poison pill for leaving their conference, and 8 of their 11 members joining the new PAC 10. New Mexico ,SJSU, and a third school were left behind. My crystal ball clouded up because of global warming and I was unable to determine the 3 rd program.

This is a pretty good prognostication, except I don't think Cal can go the indy route.  They took on half a billion in construction bonds and they need any conference money they can get.

Remember being in a conference isn't just about the tv money, when you are a FBS conference member you get:

• Conference distribution of the NCAA tournament credits
• Conference distribution of the CFP playoff credits
• Conference distribution of the TV contract

For Cal that will be millions a year to give up on, when they have a huge debt hanging over athletics. 

 

I would guess the third MWC school to be left behind in that scenario would be Wyoming.  Remember the PAC Apple deal is based on subscription sales, and the state has about half the population that of Denton county. 

 

[El Paso Eagle]

15 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

This is a pretty good prognostication, except I don't think Cal can go the indy route.  They took on half a billion in construction bonds and they need any conference money they can get.

Remember being in a conference isn't just about the tv money, when you are a FBS conference member you get:

• Conference distribution of the NCAA tournament credits
• Conference distribution of the CFP playoff credits
• Conference distribution of the TV contract

For Cal that will be millions a year to give up on, when they have a huge debt hanging over athletics. 

 

I would guess the third MWC school to be left behind in that scenario would be Wyoming.  Remember the PAC Apple deal is based on subscription sales, and the state has about half the population that of Denton county. 

 

I still would not be surprised to see SMU and Rice move to a revamped PAC. Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV, Utah, and Wyoming left the WAC to form the Mountain West, so you know they would have no problem backstabbing conference mates.

Edited August 6, 2023 by El Paso Eagle

[Dannymacfan]

37 minutes ago, wardly said:

I looked into my crystal ball this morning and saw Stanford and Cal going independent, the MWC voting to abolish their poison pill for leaving their conference, and 8 of their 11 members joining the new PAC 10. New Mexico ,SJSU, and a third school were left behind. My crystal ball clouded up because of global warming and I was unable to determine the 3 rd program.

[GMG_Dallas]

1 hour ago, Cerebus said:

The B12 commissioner's genius here was to realize the media market was drying up because the mouse could no longer strong arm ESPN fees onto every basic cable sub, and the cable sub market is dwindling anyway.   So he knew Disney/Fox could probably only afford the B12 or the PAC.  He got the deal first, now there isn't money left over for a PAC deal. 

 

1 hour ago, Cerebus said:

They may well take a couple schools from the AAC, but remember the Apple deal is based on COMPENSATION PER SUBSCRIPTION.  If the PAC looks at AAC schools they will want people who can sell a lot of the Apple+ PAC add ons. 

Apparently there's money, just not what the big PAC schools wanted. They probably felt they were above a tiered system of revenue, which, apparently they are. Per The Athletic, the Apple deal could very well pay at or above BIG12 money if the subscription count meets the tiers. With that, you're right that small private schools don't benefit PAC at this time. I can see Memphis as one of the AAC schools to go to the PAC for the reason but the question then becomes, what does Stanford want. They are the only of the PAC4 who can afford to go independent and the PAC really can't lose anybody else. Would they threaten to go independent if Tulane and SMU weren't the two AAC schools to join? Who does the MWC have that makes sense for Stanford? The new Apple deal will surely have less guaranteed money but maybe the subscription tiers remain somewhat the same. It'd be a gamble that could pay big and Apple needs a way in the college football world. I'd say there's still a path for the remaining PAC.

[NorthTexasWeLove]

1 hour ago, Cerebus said:

That's not how that works.  A5 was not given to the instutions in the PAC, it was given to the PAC by name.  If those schools leave the PAC for the MWC/AAC/etc they don't bring that status with them. 

 

 

There is no mechanism to change/strip A5 status.

When the NIL fiasco first started brewing the P5 demanded the NCAA propose a rule change that gave, SPECIFICALLY, only the B1G, SEC, ACC, PAC, and B12 extra rights to propose and vote on certain legislation. 

The vote was put to the FBS conferences AS A WHOLE, but the G5 knew if they voted no the P5 might leave the NCAA.  So they didn't reject the proposal. 

 

 

They will take six from the MWC so the departing MWC school can kill exit fees, but I am not sure why they would take two small private schools from the AAC.

They may well take a couple schools from the AAC, but remember the Apple deal is based on COMPENSATION PER SUBSCRIPTION.  If the PAC looks at AAC schools they will want people who can sell a lot of the Apple+ PAC add ons. 

 

 

The B12 commissioner's genius here was to realize the media market was drying up because the mouse could no longer strong arm ESPN fees onto every basic cable sub, and the cable sub market is dwindling anyway.   So he knew Disney/Fox could probably only afford the B12 or the PAC.  He got the deal first, now there isn't money left over for a PAC deal. 

The media is powerful. If the media wants the PACs importance and influence to dissipate, it will. No stamp of relevance will ultimately matter. 

[Cr1028]

16 hours ago, Dannymacfan said:

 

[MeanGreenGlory]

3 hours ago, Cerebus said:

That's not how that works.  A5 was not given to the instutions in the PAC, it was given to the PAC by name.  If those schools leave the PAC for the MWC/AAC/etc they don't bring that status with them. 

My understanding is that in this merger scenario, the MWC schools would vote to abolish exit fees and join the PAC to maintain the A5 status. I saw one report that the PAC and MWC leadership are meeting Monday to discuss this. Stanford reportedly not happy, but entertaining the idea. 

[NT80]

3 hours ago, wardly said:

I looked into my crystal ball this morning and saw Stanford and Cal going independent, the MWC voting to abolish their poison pill for leaving their conference, and 8 of their 11 members joining the new PAC 10. New Mexico ,SJSU, and a third school were left behind. My crystal ball clouded up because of global warming and I was unable to determine the 3 rd program.

MWC schools won’t join PAC at $34M per school, unless they dissolve the MWC.  That won’t happen because new media rights would be too complex. 

[NT80]

A good article on MWC options:

https://mwwire.com/2023/08/05/whats-next-for-mountain-west-pac-12-leftovers/

[MeanGreenGlory]

One thing that I haven’t seen discussed but is specific to UNT in all this…

A) What is the Mosely & Smatresk approach to this round of realignment? 
B) What would you hope is the Mosely & Smatresk approach to this round of realignment if different than above?

Yes, we just entered the American, but that doesn’t mean the American will stick around in its current form so they should always be watching out for UNT’s best interests.
 

Are they taking a passive approach and seeing where the AAC naturally goes? Are they back channeling with other university presidents and ADs? If so, which ones? Have they submitted an “application” to the PAC? 

[Cooke County Kid]

A couple of things, they are not going to let us know what is going on until it is done. We were in the first four out of six for AAC expansion, we have value. Our current administration is something I don’t believe we have to worry about, they have gotten us here and have hired good coaches and we are in a a good position for the future, Trust in Dr. S Et Al.

[TheColonyEagle]

So it seems the only thing these Pac4 teams can hope for it the Pac keeps its name and whatever auto bid status it evidently has (per @Cerebus)

If that’s the case, that’s the only leverage the PAC has (and it’s not much) which goes to the Apple deal. If it was $23 mil per school. That deal was for the PAC before it lost all its remaining name programs. So that deal is no longer on the table. Any new deal has to be combined with “we are an auto bid conference” and that has to be attractive enough to pull any AAC or MWC teams over. I don’t see Apple offering enough money for a conference made up to who is available to make who is available jump. 

[TIgreen01]

@Cerebus What value does A5 status actually hold?  Are we overvaluing this?