PAC 12 Realignment Talk Mega Thread (All 12 threads merged)

TheColonyEagle · August 6, 2023

26 minutes ago, TIgreen01 said:

@Cerebus What value does A5 status actually hold? Are we overvaluing this?

Kind of what I was wondering

Cerebus · August 6, 2023

5 hours ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Per The Athletic, the Apple deal could very well pay at or above BIG12 money if the subscription count meets the tiers.

The “Apple deal could pay as much or more than the B12 swap” ~~lie~~ spin was put out by the PAC commish to the PAC members and to PAC friendly media.

However, the devil is in the details.

Why no one has released a copy of the contract, some details have leaked out:

Very little of the money was guaranteed.
Instead, escalator clauses kicked in the more PAC add on subscriptions were sold.
The PAC add on was going to be $20/month.

So yes, there was technically a chance they could make more than the B12, but apparently it would have taken the equivalent of 90% of the total AppleTV+ user base to sign on to the extra $20/month package to hit B12 numbers.

Once the PAC presidents saw that, they knew they had it get out.

Cerebus · August 6, 2023

36 minutes ago, TIgreen01 said:

@Cerebus What value does A5 status actually hold? Are we overvaluing this?

There is a group of conferences who gets to propose rules on what is proper student athlete compensation. That same group of conferences get to vote on those rules. Then there is a group of schools who has no say.

I know what group I would want to be in, and I would value that highly. I bet I know how our president and AD feel about it as well.

Cerebus · August 6, 2023

One more thing, knowing exactly how much a conference is going to make on NCAA units is always muddled because:

You are promised future units for the next five years based on how you did on the current year.
You don’t know the value of the future units because they are computed each year based on the proceeds of that future years tournament.

However some CBB basketball nerds I follow are of the opinion the PAC is due somewhere in the range of $40M to $50M based on the units they have banked and are to be paid out over the next five years.

TheColonyEagle · August 6, 2023

3 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

There is a group of conferences who gets to propose rules on what is proper student athlete compensation. That same group of conferences get to vote on those rules. Then there is a group of schools who has no say.

I know what group I would want to be in, and I would value that highly. I bet I know how our president and AD feel about it as well.

But what happens when 4/5 of this group decides that 1/5 isn’t relevant anymore and they want to eliminate their say. How difficult would that be? I guess they could take them to court…

UNTLifer · August 6, 2023

5 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

There is a group of conferences who gets to propose rules on what is proper student athlete compensation. That same group of conferences get to vote on those rules. Then there is a group of schools who has no say.

I know what group I would want to be in, and I would value that highly. I bet I know how our president and AD feel about it as well.

How is this allowed and how does it not constitute a monopoly? Seems like it wouldn’t hold up in court.

UNTLifer · August 6, 2023

2 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

However some CBB basketball nerds I follow are of the opinion the PAC is due somewhere in the range of $40M to $50M based on the units they have banked and are to be paid out over the next five years.

Considering this is what they owe to Comcast, seems like it would be of no benefit to potential schools.

NT80 · August 6, 2023

4 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

One more thing, knowing exactly how much a conference is going to make on NCAA units is always muddled because:

You are promised future units for the next five years based on how you did on the current year.

You don’t know the value of the future units because they are computed each year based on the proceeds of that future years tournament.

However some CBB basketball nerds I follow are of the opinion the PAC is due somewhere in the range of $40M to $50M based on the units they have banked and are to be paid out over the next five years.

Don’t schools that leave the Conference forfeit their part to the remaining members? And what happens to the units if the conference is dissolved?

rojomojo · August 6, 2023

Apparently many AAC schools are preparing to file applications to the PAC-12... UNT is not among the list

Regardless of the current state of the PAC-12, I pray small minded nonsense does not cause us to fall behind in the future of whatever college sports may be.

UNT86 · August 6, 2023

Just thinking that unless Cal, Stanford, Washington State, and/or Oregon State swallow a lot of pride and join the WAC, that each of them may be looking for 5 games just to fill the schedule. They can still play the non-conference they have contracted and play each other for 3 of the remaining 8 games. After that, what?

So, do we bump someone in an upcoming season to get them to come here? Do we even offer a return trip? Do we insist on playing in DATCU first?

A lot of dominoes still have to fall, but these guys could be in a lot of trouble just filling out a schedule (see NT 1995 for reference).

dodgefan · August 6, 2023

PAC4 meeting w/MWC tomorrow for merger discussions then immediately meeting with Apple and a few AAC schools to discuss expansion. Again all options are on the table but their preference is to expand and continue on.

Coffee and TV · August 6, 2023

This is a good 7-8 minute breakdown of how it fell apart for the PAC and their next moves- local sports anchor for Bay Area local news.

Edited August 6, 2023 by Coffee and TV

UNTcrazy727 · August 6, 2023

1 hour ago, TheColonyEagle said:

But what happens when 4/5 of this group decides that 1/5 isn’t relevant anymore and they want to eliminate their say. How difficult would that be? I guess they could take them to court…

That's exactly what will happen. The Big 10, SEC, Big 12, and ACC aren't going to let the Pac 12 retain their AQ status for long.

NT80 · August 6, 2023

Oregon State AD ‘Furious’ After Friday’s Massive PAC-12 departures

https://www.si.com/college/2023/08/05/pac-12-oregon-state-response-oregon-washington-big-ten-news-conference-realignment

Edited August 6, 2023 by NT80

TheColonyEagle · August 6, 2023

39 minutes ago, dodgefan said:

PAC4 meeting w/MWC tomorrow for merger discussions then immediately meeting with Apple and a few AAC schools to discuss expansion. Again all options are on the table but their preference is to expand and continue on.

Haven’t seen that anywhere. And Apple will be coming with waaay less than $20 million per school. I don’t see how they can afford to pay enough to make it worth any MWC/AAC program’s time. Those 4 Pac leftovers don’t add enough to warrant more money.

TheColonyEagle · August 6, 2023

13 minutes ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

That's exactly what will happen. The Big 10, SEC, Big 12, and ACC aren't going to let the Pac 12 retain their AQ status for long.

I wouldn’t think so

NorthTexasWeLove · August 6, 2023

17 minutes ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

That's exactly what will happen. The Big 10, SEC, Big 12, and ACC aren't going to let the Pac 12 retain their AQ status for long.

0 shot in hell they let them hang onto it. That's why it's completely irrelevant. Those 4 conferences mentioned will use the media (their TV partners) to rail them while normalizing their irrelevance and when people take a seat at the table again they're toast.

GMG_Dallas · August 6, 2023

1 hour ago, UNTLifer said:

Considering this is what they owe to Comcast, seems like it would be of no benefit to potential schools.

Is it not the schools who were in the PAC when those overpayment were made that owe the money to Comcast? I don't believe future members are on the hook for that. Those aren't the schools that received the money.

Jonnyeagle · August 6, 2023

Uh oh

Green Otaku · August 6, 2023

2 hours ago, TIgreen01 said:

@Cerebus What value does A5 status actually hold? Are we overvaluing this?

Basically the big conferences got tired of things not passing due to smaller conferences saying no. So they threatened to split away unless they were given more authority. The smaller conferences caved, and the A5 was born. Now they can pass rules, while other conferences can choose to adopt those or not, but have no say in what the A5 can adopt.

https://www.lawinsport.com/topics/item/what-does-autonomy-for-the-power-5-mean-for-the-ncaa

GMG_Dallas · August 6, 2023

2 hours ago, Cerebus said:

The “Apple deal could pay as much or more than the B12 swap” ~~lie~~ spin was put out by the PAC commish to the PAC members and to PAC friendly media.

However, the devil is in the details.

Why no one has released a copy of the contract, some details have leaked out:

Very little of the money was guaranteed.

Instead, escalator clauses kicked in the more PAC add on subscriptions were sold.

The PAC add on was going to be $20/month.

So yes, there was technically a chance they could make more than the B12, but apparently it would have taken the equivalent of 90% of the total AppleTV+ user base to sign on to the extra $20/month package to hit B12 numbers.

Once the PAC presidents saw that, they knew they had it get out.

AppleTV+ is $6.99 per month. The deal would have brought enough new AppleTV+ subscribers to get the desired numbers. That entry price is not a deterent to many. The PAC add-on of $20 is maybe a tad steep for some but when you consider the PAC12 network currently requires a FuboTV subscription which starts at $75/month plus the add-on, for those who only get TV to watch college sports, it's not bad.

I think the issue is more that the Apple deal had a top end payout of $50 million per school and the B1G is projected to pay $80-$100 million. For the biggest former PAC programs like USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington, that's too big of a difference. The PAC12 network had an estimated subscriber count of 14.8 million in 2020. Apparently the top end Apple deal tier was 5 million subscribers for $50million per team. Why would the biggest PAC programs sign a deal with a cap of $50 million per school? You can't set that low of a cap in a tiered system when the other networks are getting more than that guaranteed.

Green Otaku · August 6, 2023

2 hours ago, UNTLifer said:

Considering this is what they owe to Comcast, seems like it would be of no benefit to potential schools.

I think it's been reported that the schools in the conference at that time are the ones responsible for the repayment, not the conference itself.

2 hours ago, NT80 said:

Don’t schools that leave the Conference forfeit their part to the remaining members? And what happens to the units if the conference is dissolved?

If a conference is dissolved the members split their shares amongst the members. That's why the PAC will try to continue as a conference, they want to keep those credits amongst the 4 members.

Another thing people are not talking about is will the PAC withhold conference distribution for the 6 teams leaving this year? Last year it was $37m per team, so will they have $222M to bolster their current teams as well as entice new ones?

keith · August 6, 2023

I’ve been around UNT athletics long enough to know that I need to start worrying about that sinking feeling that’s invading the pit of my stomach. Hopefully it’s just something I ate.

Edited August 6, 2023 by keith

wardly · August 6, 2023

6 hours ago, NT80 said:

MWC schools won’t join PAC at $34M per school, unless they dissolve the MWC. That won’t happen because new media rights would be too complex.

With the changes that transpired the past few weeks its hard to say what would be too complex.