PAC 12 Realignment Talk Mega Thread (All 12 threads merged)

[Salsa_Verde]

18 hours ago, rws69 said:

Zach Ballard writing for SB Nation suggested that Mountain West would dissolve, with six stronger programs (AF, Boise, Colo State, Fresno, SDSU, and UNLV) joining the Pac 12 remnants. The problem would be getting nine votes to dissolve with six of the twelve left hanging. 

Why would they do that? That makes no sense the PAC has no GOR deal, the MWC does. Those schools would be shooting them selves in the foot. Sounds like “trust me bro” journalism 

[Cerebus]

2 hours ago, emmitt01 said:

Those that expect the remaining 4 PAC teams to just grab MWC and AAC teams and soldier on, keep a few things in mind.

1) The PAC owes Comcast a LOT of money

2) MWC teams have a substantial buyout to leave that conference, and…

3) Teams in the PAC won’t be getting near the money they used to get (that affects offsetting #2)

4) Cal, Stanford, Washington State and Oregon State are used to operating on a budget that included $30M in television rights payouts (see #3 again)

1) COMCAST has already said that it expects to be made whole by THE MEMBER INSTITUTIONS AT THE TIME THE DISTRIBUTIONS WERE MADE.  Whether the PAC folds or not, their lawyers are still going after the schools who got the money at the time, no matter what conference they are in now.  

2) As we talked about in this thread, the MWC bylaws are online.  A simple majority vote can change any rule/regulation, including the buyout fees.  Just invite a majority of the MWC and they can strike down the exit fees and then exit.

3) PAC4 aren’t going to make more money leaving the PAC.  The PAC at least has Autonomy 5 status, BY NAME, in the NCAA bylaws.

4) No one outside the B1G/SEC is going to replace that money, and they don’t want them.  Moot point. 

[outoftown]

1 hour ago, meangreenfaninno said:

 

Really? I know the folks at FSU and Clemson are terrified of being left behind. But if they do not get taken up they will be in a BAD spot. Haven't we jsut learnt from the PAC fiasco, that currently the negitioation position for sellers to the media are Terrible (capital T on purpose). I know the people think the AAC is having a terrible deal. But even if they could renegotiate right now i doubt they would get much more.

Edited August 5, 2023 by outoftown

[Salsa_Verde]

18 hours ago, UNTX said:

I wish I was as optimistic as most on this board, but I don’t see how this is good for the MWC or AAC.  The PAC 12 brand has value, and presents the opportunity for the four remaining schools to align with the best academic schools in both the MWC and AAC.  What I see possibly happening is this.

California, Stanford, OSU, WSU, San Diego State, Air Force, CSU, SMU, Rice, and Tulane.  That’s 10 to settle things down and a start.  They could add a couple more now or later.  CSU and Air Force get games in the central time zone and in Texas, which they’re on record as wanting.  

The name means nothing, it’s over. It’s always been about the schools within the conference, once USC and UCLA left it was over. 

[Cerebus]

Just now, Salsa_Verde said:

The name means nothing, it’s over. It’s always been about the schools within the conference, once USC and UCLA left it was over. 

Not true.  In the NCAA bylaws the PAC BY NAME has autonomy five status.  

[Salsa_Verde]

Just now, Cerebus said:

Not true.  In the NCAA bylaws the PAC BY NAME has autonomy five status.  

That is over never year. There is no autonomy status in perpetuity if there is no conference. 

[Cerebus]

4 minutes ago, Salsa_Verde said:

That is over never year. There is no autonomy status in perpetuity if there is no conference. 

Never year?

You are right there is no autonomy status if there is no conference.  Thats why you invite 6 MWC members, have them strike down exit fees in the MWC, leave the MWC, join the PAC.

Then there is a PAC with autonomy status.  

The MWC then has to scramble for survival.

[greenminer]

12 minutes ago, Salsa_Verde said:

That is over never year. There is no autonomy status in perpetuity if there is no conference. 

They have autonomy by name.  As long as they figure out their new teams and remain, they will have autonomy.

Honestly, I didn't read this until the other day - after all these years I didn't know.  Pretty ridiculous power flex by the P5, if you ask me.  I thought all this crap was attached to the BCS era, but it's not.

[Cerebus]

1 minute ago, greenminer said:

They have autonomy by name.  As long as they figure out their new teams and remain, they will have autonomy.

Honestly, I didn't read this until the other day - after all these years I didn't know.  Pretty ridiculous power flex by the P5, if you ask me.  I thought all this crap was attached to the BCS era, but it's not.

NCAA did specifically to allow those conference to decide on player compensation rules.  

[MeanGreenGlory]

This isn’t over. Sounds like BIG10 and BIG12 may push up to 24 teams, and the SEC wants to expand further as well. All three will likely want to poach schools from the ACC. 
 

One conference—either a rebuilt PAC, rebuilt ACC, AAC, or MWC—will have the opportunity to be the strongest of the current G5s and weaker P5s. That conference will have a fighting chance at getting good media deals and staying relevant. Everyone else (including CUSA, MAC, Sun Belt, etc.) will likely have an uphill battle for revenue and relevance.

Does Aresco make plans to secure 24 schools in the AAC to become a top 4 conference when the dust settles (BIG10, SEC, BIG12, and AAC)?
 

 

Edited August 5, 2023 by MeanGreenGlory

[Christopher Walker]

21 hours ago, RBP79 said:

So how can the PAC maintain P5 status with the media rights going to Apple Streaming and all these Universities leaving? Yea...streaming maybe the future but it ain't right now and might be a while before that comes close to being true...

 

Attitudes are changing rapidly on this as experience does, in seemingly six- to nine-month advances. The next big domino here will be how people take and consume NFL Sunday Ticket being exclusive to YouTube and YouTubeTV.

[RBP79]

Some of these fantasy scenarios could very well be decided in the courts....all the hurt feelings and promises broken.

You can resurrect the PAC but it will NEVER have the status it once had...SMU and the want to be's will be joining a conference that is below the ACC is just equal to the AAC and MWC if it survives.

[wardly]

16 hours ago, NM Green said:

I like that Aresco seems to be holding his cards close to his chest. I bet he plans a work through with the MWC based on the PACS move. I could see the  PAC going the way of the SWC and disappearing. I could see the pairing of programs to make sure everyone has a home. I could see an outright poaching attempt. But Aresco isn’t sitting still despite the silence. 

Leftover programs after the PAC invites leave only 1 that fits our profile and two maybes. 

San Jose State fits the AAC. 
Hawaii and New Mexico are stretches but could have some intrigue. 

Personally without some anchors in Colorado I wouldn’t go too far west. Better situation would be UNLV, SDSU, San Jose State or Fresno, Boise, AF, Colorado State. 

GMG

 

Please, anyone but the Spartans . Their nickname is a reflection of their budget and fan base. SJSU fits CUSA or WAC much better.

[emmitt01]

One analysis of this whole thing:

https://collegefootballnews.com/cfn/college-football-expansion-realignment-whats-next-for-the-pac-12

[NM Green]

The Big 12 rep today said it’s a zero sum game and that is why the Bug 12 went so hard. Someone has to win and it why the 12 ate the PAC. Makes me think of the AAC going strong for Boise San Diego State Cal Stanford CSU AF OSU UNLV and Wazzu. That’s the western bridge. Remaining slot(s) to the ACC shakeouts. 

GMG

[UNTLifer]

5 hours ago, Aquila_Viridis said:

Somehow I expect the more attractive 4 or so from each of the MW and AA will join the 4 PAC. That would probably leave us in no man's land.

Who would you consider the more attractive four in the AAC and MWC?

I will say that, for once, I am happy with the position we are in. I am thankful that we have Arresco running our conference and not Judy and that our campus leadership is solid. All of that coupled with our size and location have us sitting in a pretty strong position as things unfold. 

Edited August 5, 2023 by UNTLifer

[NT80]

2 hours ago, RBP79 said:

SMU and the want to be's will be joining a conference that is below the ACC is just equal to the AAC and MWC if it survives.

I hope Smut enjoys their trips to Pullman and Corvallis.  Welcome to the PAC2!

[Jonnyeagle]

This is what will happen

West:
Stanford
Cal
Oregon State
Washington State
SMU
Rice
North Texas
UTSA
Tulsa

East:
Tulane
UAB
FAU
Charlotte
ECU
USF
Temple
Navy
Memphis

[Jonnyeagle]

45 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

Who would you consider the more attractive four in the AAC and MWC?

I will say that, for once, I am happy with the position we are in. I am thankful that we have Arresco running our conference and not Judy and that our campus leadership is solid. All of that coupled with our size and location have us sitting in a pretty strong position as things unfold. 

Agree.  The moves Aresco made are looking pretty smart about now.

[Cerebus]

1 hour ago, emmitt01 said:

One analysis of this whole thing:

https://collegefootballnews.com/cfn/college-football-expansion-realignment-whats-next-for-the-pac-12

Good start, saying the PAC4 + six MWC could make a good conference.

Terrible landing, saying it can’t happen now because the MWC exit fees.  Six MWC teams is exactly what they need to change the bylaws and end exit fees.  

[NT93]

40 minutes ago, Jonnyeagle said:

This is what will happen

West:
Stanford
Cal
Oregon State
Washington State
SMU
Rice
North Texas
UTSA
Tulsa

East:
Tulane
UAB
FAU
Charlotte
ECU
USF
Temple
Navy
Memphis

Where do I sign?  This is possibly best case scenario for UNT.

[wardly]

58 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

Good start, saying the PAC4 + six MWC could make a good conference.

Terrible landing, saying it can’t happen now because the MWC exit fees.  Six MWC teams is exactly what they need to change the bylaws and end exit fees.  

It doesn't really seem that hard. Seven MWC schools change the rules and leave without any exit fee. Stanford will probably go independent so the other 3 PAC 12 schools form a new PAC 12. If Cal decides to go independent  then grab 1 of the 4 MWC schools still available. The other 3 can move to WAC or CUSA.

[Cerebus]

2 minutes ago, wardly said:

It doesn't really seem that hard. Seven MWC schools change the rules and leave without any exit fee. Stanford will probably go independent so the other 3 PAC 12 schools form a new PAC 12. If Cal decides to go independent  then grab 1 of the 4 MWC schools still available. The other 3 can move to WAC or CUSA.

I have been saying seven, but that’s only because I thought the MWC had 12 members, at 11, they just need six.  

Stanford can afford to go independent, but they would be cut out of the playoff.  

Cal cal not afford it, they are deep into debt on construction bonds,  they need every penny they can get from conference membership. 

 

[southsideguy]

smut is headed for the acc now never mind the pac 12,   

[emmitt01]

9 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

I have been saying seven, but that’s only because I thought the MWC had 12 members, at 11, they just need six.  

Stanford can afford to go independent, but they would be cut out of the playoff.  

Cal cal not afford it, they are deep into debt on construction bonds,  they need every penny they can get from conference membership. 

 

And how do Cal, Oregon State, and Washington State fund their programs on a television deal that won’t be anywhere close to what they are accustomed to?  ESPN isn’t paying a lot to televise the four least desirable PAC teams and a bunch of MWC teams (if they were willing to pay a premium for MWC content, they’d be doing it already). 
 

And how likely are MWC schools to jump at what won’t be traditional PAC level money knowing any of the traditional PAC schools will bolt the second a real P5 (or is it P3 now?) offer comes?