We have a long way to go.

Green Crazy · July 20, 2023

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/texas-tech-red-raiders/2023/07/19/texas-tech-athletes-reported-nearly-8-million-in-nil-money-through-first-two-years/

Mike Jackson · July 20, 2023

8 hours ago, Green Crazy said:

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/texas-tech-red-raiders/2023/07/19/texas-tech-athletes-reported-nearly-8-million-in-nil-money-through-first-two-years/

We aren’t P5 ready and if you expect new donations to the program they have to show improvement equal to the money invested. Too many programs have caught up to us and exceeded our on the field success with fewer resources beyond just money.

Edited July 20, 2023 by Mike Jackson

NorthTexasWeLove · July 20, 2023

1 hour ago, Mike Jackson said:

We aren’t P5 ready and if you expect new donations to the program they have to show improvement equal to the money invested. Too many programs have caught up to us and exceeded our on the field success with fewer resources beyond just money.

TTech isn't P2 money... lots of those dudes droppin 15-20M each year. TTech slightly under 4 in NIL per yr will get them in the same boat as us eventually. Be patient for we are witnessing the rich eat rich and hierarchies being legally established.

cousin oliver · July 20, 2023

1 hour ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

TTech isn't P2 money... lots of those dudes droppin 15-20M each year. TTech slightly under 4 in NIL per yr will get them in the same boat as us eventually. Be patient for we are witnessing the rich eat rich and hierarchies being legally established.

I agree with this. I expect the landscape of college athletics changing dramatically over the next 3-4 years.

NorthTexasWeLove · July 20, 2023

18 minutes ago, cousin oliver said:

I agree with this. I expect the landscape of college athletics changing dramatically over the next 3-4 years.

It's true. And for program just like Texas Tech, it will hurt the most.

A list of programs that will be like us because though they have nice coffers, but given the rules in place will not be able to sustain and truly keep up:

Texas Tech, Kansas State, Iowa State, UH, the entire Pac12 minus USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington, BC, Virginia, Wake, UCF, BYU, Cincy, Oklahoma State, TCU (will have the resources, not sure the willpower), Pitt, Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC State, Syracuse.

I didn't touch the SEC or Big10 as their TV contracts are extremely lucrative. However, in the years to come, I'm not sure many of those programs will be safe. Such as: Maryland, Purdue, Northwestern, Illinois, Rutgers, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State.

This will leave the power 2 with about 35 programs after adding their desirables such as Oregon, Washington, Duke, FSU, Clemson, UNC, and Miami. Then we will be staring at their end goal: NFL model in collegiate football.

The remaining 95-100 programs will play college football in 6ish conferences.

Mike Jackson · July 20, 2023

7 hours ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

This will leave the power 2 with about 35 programs after adding their desirables such as Oregon, Washington, Duke, FSU, Clemson, UNC, and Miami. Then we will be staring at their end goal: NFL model in collegiate football.

Think that will be a big mistake. That is leaving more than 1/2 of college football fandom without a team. That relatively low rated Clemson vs Alabama title game should have been an eye opener. If half the playoff games are rematches of conference games of the big 2 or worse the rubber match of 3 games because they played in their conference championship I suspect viewership will plummet.

Edited July 21, 2023 by Mike Jackson

NorthTexasWeLove · July 21, 2023

15 minutes ago, Mike Jackson said:

Think that will be a big mistake. That is leaving more than 1/2 of college football fandom without a team. That relatively rated Clemson vs Alabama title game. If half the playoff games are rematches of conference games of the big 2 or worse the rubber match of 3 games because they played in their conference championship I suspect viewership will plummet.

You're not wrong, and I'm not cheering for this to happen. But we're being walked in this direction, and I think it's inevitable.

None of the commissioners are mum on the topic, yet none of them are forthcoming. If you read between the lines, the fine print is clear. Ultimately, ND is the big chip sitting out there, and I think is the domino everyone is waiting for to fall. The big10 wants them bad, and that has been the hold in regards to Oregon and Wash. More people = more mouths. If the big10 can lure ND, then tack on Oregon and Wash, they're set. The ACC grant of rights is a collosal mess. They're basically untouchable until the mid 2030's. But that will be when the last splash happens.

This (realingment), as it has always been, is complex. This time it will drag on with minimal pause from YoY up to the release of ACC universities. A decade+ of realignment.

NT80 · July 21, 2023

38 minutes ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

You're not wrong, and I'm not cheering for this to happen. But we're being walked in this direction, and I think it's inevitable.

None of the commissioners are mum on the topic, yet none of them are forthcoming. If you read between the lines, the fine print is clear. Ultimately, ND is the big chip sitting out there, and I think is the domino everyone is waiting for to fall. The big10 wants them bad, and that has been the hold in regards to Oregon and Wash. More people = more mouths. If the big10 can lure ND, then tack on Oregon and Wash, they're set. The ACC grant of rights is a collosal mess. They're basically untouchable until the mid 2030's. But that will be when the last splash happens.

This (realingment), as it has always been, is complex. This time it will drag on with minimal pause from YoY up to the release of ACC universities. A decade+ of realignment.

The expanded CFP is playing a part in all this. The PAC thinks they may have a better chance getting their champ into the "top six conference champs" auto-bid if they have fewer members (ie Pac10?). Some SEC coaches (Saban) are wanting to stop scheduling G5 games for better strength of schedule = more CFP bids. That also leads to more power programs invited into the SEC & B10 to provide league teams with 2-3 conference losses the ability to overcome those and still perhaps qualify for a CFP slot.

UNT86 · July 21, 2023

That kind of implosion is what it will take to change the current NIL model.

Edited July 21, 2023 by UNT86

NorthTexasWeLove · July 21, 2023

51 minutes ago, UNT86 said:

That kind of implosion is what it will take to change the current NIL model.

I don't think the correction of NIL will matter much. When congress gets around to making legislation, whatever the cap is set to will be to the favor of the 30-ish mega programs. And I anticipate some sort of legislation happening eventually. Just expect an egregious figure.

meanrob · July 21, 2023

11 hours ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

It's true. And for program just like Texas Tech, it will hurt the most.

A list of programs that will be like us because though they have nice coffers, but given the rules in place will not be able to sustain and truly keep up:

Texas Tech, Kansas State, Iowa State, UH, the entire Pac12 minus USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington, BC, Virginia, Wake, UCF, BYU, Cincy, Oklahoma State, TCU (will have the resources, not sure the willpower), Pitt, Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC State, Syracuse.

I didn't touch the SEC or Big10 as their TV contracts are extremely lucrative. However, in the years to come, I'm not sure many of those programs will be safe. Such as: Maryland, Purdue, Northwestern, Illinois, Rutgers, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State.

This will leave the power 2 with about 35 programs after adding their desirables such as Oregon, Washington, Duke, FSU, Clemson, UNC, and Miami. Then we will be staring at their end goal: NFL model in collegiate football.

The remaining 95-100 programs will play college football in 6ish conferences.

This is the direction it seems like it’s going but something tells it doesn’t go there. If NIL gets reeled in, the playing field tightens up. Or if some of the traditional decent teams but not powers (Iowa, Va Tech and those teams) get passed by less traditional teams who spend big on NIL, there might be enough pushback to keep it from going to super conferences. Or if ratings start to go in the wrong direction, maybe common sense prevails. (Who am I kidding?)

Dannymacfan · July 21, 2023

On 7/20/2023 at 1:11 AM, Green Crazy said:

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/texas-tech-red-raiders/2023/07/19/texas-tech-athletes-reported-nearly-8-million-in-nil-money-through-first-two-years/

You and your like are part of the problem @Green Crazy. We get into a top not conference, just a few days ago and instead of be happy and optimistic about that you choose to focus on the negatives. NIL is a mess, we all know it and it will become legislated soon.