SDSU sent letter to MWC asking to postpone exit deadline

[DentonStang]

12 minutes ago, ColoradoEagle said:

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/aztecs/story/2023-06-19/san-diego-state-sdsu-aztecs-conference-realignment-mountain-west-pac-12-june-30-deadline-letters-exit-fee

Seems like some drama unfolding.

It's super bizarre.  It's like telling your wife you want a divorce, but your side piece isn't ready to be official yet, so you are delaying demanding a divorce until she's ready next month. 

[DentonLurker]

2 hours ago, DentonStang said:

Money is not an issue for us the way it apparently is for SDSU, and all the other teams negotiated sweet deals on the way out. So will we.

It’s kind of entertaining that the main argument in all of this for SMU seems to be “we’re rich.”

[bstnsportsfan3]

1 hour ago, ColoradoEagle said:

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/aztecs/story/2023-06-19/san-diego-state-sdsu-aztecs-conference-realignment-mountain-west-pac-12-june-30-deadline-letters-exit-fee

Seems like some drama unfolding.

[DentonStang]

21 minutes ago, DentonLurker said:

It’s kind of entertaining that the main argument in all of this for SMU seems to be “we’re rich.”

Do you actually read?  Money (and different timeline) is the reason we haven't informed the AAC we are leaving before getting an invite like SDSU has. Topic entirely about exit fees, and SDSU trying to avoid exit fees, is it not relevant to say "we don't need to avoid the exit fees"?

You're like someone who only reads the headline of an article and immediately starts yelling "Trump blah blah blah/Liberals blah blah blah"

Edited June 20, 2023 by DentonStang

[UNTLifer]

1 hour ago, DentonStang said:

It's super bizarre.  It's like telling your wife you want a divorce, but your side piece isn't ready to be official yet, so you are delaying demanding a divorce until she's ready next month. 

Once again

[Cougar King]

5 hours ago, DentonStang said:

Money is not an issue for us the way it apparently is for SDSU, and all the other teams negotiated sweet deals on the way out. So will we.

Money don't mean crap when you have nowhere to go.

[MeanGreenGlory]

I’m sure Aresco is following this closely. There could be a lot of opportunity for the American if the PAC12 media deal flops and the MWC kicks out SDSU…

[TIgreen01]

I'm surprised Stanford is as undervalued as it seems from all this.  They have historically been the best run athletic department in the country.  One of the best funded (across all sports).  They aren't perennial football powers but they usually are in/around Top 25.  Maybe I'm missing something and they are the only ones left to even get that number into the $20 million range?  Would really love to see the breakdown by school....even though that sort of thing never seems to be released to the public.

[DentonLurker]

3 hours ago, DentonStang said:

Money (and different timeline) is the reason we haven't informed the AAC we are leaving before getting an invite like SDSU has.

My point is that the underlying tone for pretty much every conversation about SMU moving to a different conference is look at our NIL ($'s), look at our facilities ($'s), we won't have any issue paying an exit fee ($'s), etc. There's not really much talk about how good the teams are, how SMU sells out every game, how SMU puts a million eyes on TV's, how SMU helps other schools sell tickets, etc.

[bstnsportsfan3]

49 minutes ago, DentonLurker said:

My point is that the underlying tone for pretty much every conversation about SMU moving to a different conference is look at our NIL ($'s), look at our facilities ($'s), we won't have any issue paying an exit fee ($'s), etc. There's not really much talk about how good the teams are, how SMU sells out every game, how SMU puts a million eyes on TV's, how SMU helps other schools sell tickets, etc.

They can’t even bring 500 fans to Denton yet they think they are valuable to the PAC-12

[Dpony14]

58 minutes ago, DentonLurker said:

My point is that the underlying tone for pretty much every conversation about SMU moving to a different conference is look at our NIL ($'s), look at our facilities ($'s), we won't have any issue paying an exit fee ($'s), etc. There's not really much talk about how good the teams are, how SMU sells out every game, how SMU puts a million eyes on TV's, how SMU helps other schools sell tickets, etc.

Here is my best explanation, and I hope this comes across in an informative/positive way, not like I'm trying to brag about SMU. I like to pop in here for debates, so I'm trying not to get banned. P5 conferences want to know that potential addition will do what it takes to be successful if they are elevated. A lot of that comes down to spending. SMU already spends at the low end P5 level, without the P5 media revenue. Its a show of commitment, not a "were so rich, look at us". You cant guarantee success if your school is elevated, but you can guarantee you will do everything within your power to try. Will you spend on extra staff, facilities, NIL, or whatever it takes to be successful at the P5 level? SMU has proven we can and we will. 

Some additional things besides the "money"/NIL/Portal that are usually mentioned by anyone who talks about SMU in a positive light... PAC12 fans are flocking to Texas which will help SMUs attendance, and let them see their team locally. SMU opens up some Central Time Zone games, which is good for media partners. SMU has the academics that the snobs at Cal/Stanford want to see. SMU helps the PAC12 schools, and especially the Arizona Schools and Colorado, recruit Texas for players. It also makes it easier for those schools to pull regular students from Texas, which one of the Arizona presidents stated is a big deal. S

Just my thoughts. Feel free to disagree. 

Edited June 20, 2023 by Dpony14

[outoftown]

This whole thing is just a baad look for both SDSU and the PAC. I suspect the MWC to be playing it brilliantly, by playing stupid, but am not completely certain. I am sure they want to keep SDSU or at least make as much money as possible, but this still leads to SDSU being unhappy with its current conference in the medium run.

In any case the PAC forcing its most important expansion candidate to front 35 million when it only needs to be half, something they are not able to do and several of its current members would not be able to do either, seeing as some of them have been having financial problems, just indicates they don't have it together. Add to that that they have more overhead than necessary (which also means you need more TV money for the same payout) etc and the signs for the PAC become less and less positive. If they miss the 30 of June, then this time there will actually be problems.

I suspect that the new tv deal will be contingent on actually getting specific expansion teams. If I were a tv exec, I would put that in the contract, because I would want to be safe. You get your expansion team to not be able to leave its old conference, you can^'t sign the deal, you can't sign the deal, you may lose members.

 

Edited June 20, 2023 by outoftown

[GrayEagle]

14 hours ago, ColoradoEagle said:

If half the current Pac leaves, you’re left with Cal, Stanford, Washington State, and Oregon State. Enough to pull in some MWC schools, but that’s about it. Media contract for that group probably wouldn’t be much higher than the AAC. Definitely not enough to justify the higher travel costs. Also it would cease to be a P5 conference at that point. 

I know that Colorado is feeling out the Big XII but what about Arizona, Arizona State and Utah?  Where are they going?  In fact, it's not for certain that UCLA will go...only USC.  I don't believe that USC goes if UCLA does not.  I don't know what will happen but at the moment it's not a done thing.

 

[outoftown]

1 minute ago, GrayEagle said:

I know that Colorado is feeling out the Big XII but what about Arizona, Arizona State and Utah?  Where are they going?  In fact, it's not for certain that UCLA will go...only USC.  I don't believe that USC goes if UCLA does not.  I don't know what will happen but at the moment it's not a done thing.

 

UCLA is done. The governors approved it after UCLA had to make some of the other system schools whole. But its happening.

[greenminer]

3 hours ago, bstnsportsfan3 said:

They can’t even bring 500 fans to Denton yet they think they are valuable to the PAC-12

SMU exists in this weird, counterintuitive position: they keep (successfully) selling themselves as a brand, but their brand doesn't have any viewership.

I think you can sum this up into two points: 1) they're in Dallas, and 2) they have money.

Edited June 20, 2023 by greenminer

[NT80]

1 hour ago, greenminer said:

SMU exists in this weird, counterintuitive position: they keep (successfully) selling themselves as a brand, but their brand doesn't have any viewership.

I think you can sum this up into two points: 1) their in Dallas, and 2) they have money.

1) they are actually in University Park, not Dallas, and 2) they are all hat, no cattle (fans).

 

Edited June 20, 2023 by NT80

[NT80]

Paul Finebaum predicts Pac-12 will collapse by 2026

Finebaum went on to say the bigger conferences may not even want to expand but may be forced to go ahead and stake their claim with the Pac-12 conference schools since they could be available.

“And ultimately, as much as big conferences don’t really want to expand at the moment, I think they’ll be forced to take the cream of the crop out there, whether it’s the Big Ten going after the northwest schools, whether it’s Colorado or Arizona or somebody else just deciding to go to the Big 12 — I do not believe the Pac-12 can exist.”

https://www.on3.com/news/paul-finebaum-predicts-pac-12-will-collapse-by-2026/

[greenminer]

1 hour ago, NT80 said:

1) they are actually in University Park, not Dallas

feel free to argue that with, you know, the rest of the world.

Worst trash talking nitpick I've ever seen.  We can do better lol

[El Paso Eagle]

1 hour ago, NT80 said:

Paul Finebaum predicts Pac-12 will collapse by 2026

Finebaum went on to say the bigger conferences may not even want to expand but may be forced to go ahead and stake their claim with the Pac-12 conference schools since they could be available.

“And ultimately, as much as big conferences don’t really want to expand at the moment, I think they’ll be forced to take the cream of the crop out there, whether it’s the Big Ten going after the northwest schools, whether it’s Colorado or Arizona or somebody else just deciding to go to the Big 12 — I do not believe the Pac-12 can exist.”

https://www.on3.com/news/paul-finebaum-predicts-pac-12-will-collapse-by-2026/

If Finebaum is predicting it, I have to guess the PAC will be doing better than ever

[DentonStang]

6 hours ago, DentonLurker said:

My point is that the underlying tone for pretty much every conversation about SMU moving to a different conference is look at our NIL ($'s), look at our facilities ($'s), we won't have any issue paying an exit fee ($'s), etc. There's not really much talk about how good the teams are, how SMU sells out every game, how SMU puts a million eyes on TV's, how SMU helps other schools sell tickets, etc.

There are really no G5 schools that move the needle themselves on TV ratings, including the crew headed to B12.  It's just not that important because TV viewers are driven by opponent/relevancy of matchup and what channel they are on. Teams willing to put in a decent effort at the P5 level (facilities, coaches, NIL) will be good enough to drive these numbers. 

There ARE a ton of teams that sell out their stadium and are 100% irrelevant in expansion like ECU.  It just isn't important.  I'd take SDSU and UNT all day before ECU with vastly better attendance.  

Interviews with former conference commissioners and TV execs are out there in this round - PAC needs to replace major metro footprint for a variety of market potential and recruiting. SMU does not deliver the DFW market. But the combined force of PAC playing in the 4th largest metro is vastly more beneficial than being the king of wherever ECU plays.  And SMU has academics that complement which isn't everything but definitely matters to PAC. 

 

Look at their expansion options.  Who is available and better than SDSU and SMU?

[NT80]

17 minutes ago, DentonStang said:

There are really no G5 schools that move the needle themselves on TV ratings, including the crew headed to B12.  It's just not that important because TV viewers are driven by opponent/relevancy of matchup and what channel they are on. Teams willing to put in a decent effort at the P5 level (facilities, coaches, NIL) will be good enough to drive these numbers. 

There ARE a ton of teams that sell out their stadium and are 100% irrelevant in expansion like ECU.  It just isn't important.  I'd take SDSU and UNT all day before ECU with vastly better attendance.  

Interviews with former conference commissioners and TV execs are out there in this round - PAC needs to replace major metro footprint for a variety of market potential and recruiting. SMU does not deliver the DFW market. But the combined force of PAC playing in the 4th largest metro is vastly more beneficial than being the king of wherever ECU plays.  And SMU has academics that complement which isn't everything but definitely matters to PAC. 

 

Look at their expansion options.  Who is available and better than SDSU and SMU?

You make some interesting points, like the ECU example.  It seems G5 programs in smaller population markets are getting bypassed by urban programs that may be able to eventually pull in more local fans and viewers.   It's funny because some of the SEC programs are in very small rural towns.

So let's say Smu gets the invite into the PAC.  What is the endgame?  Is this looked at like a stepping stone to eventually the Big12?  Why not just stay in the AAC and win like Houston or Cincy and get into the Big12 that way?

[meanrob]

22 minutes ago, DentonStang said:

 Who is available and better than SDSU and SMU?

This is a legit question from the outside looking in. 
 

But if the question is are SDSU and SMU enough to keep the PAC together, it’s a different answer. 
 

The Big 12 stays together because those schools have nowhere else to go. That might not be the case with the PAC. You MIGHT be able to backfill with two. Any more than that and it’s done. 

[DentonStang]

59 minutes ago, NT80 said:

You make some interesting points, like the ECU example.  It seems G5 programs in smaller population markets are getting bypassed by urban programs that may be able to eventually pull in more local fans and viewers.   It's funny because some of the SEC programs are in very small rural towns.

So let's say Smu gets the invite into the PAC.  What is the endgame?  Is this looked at like a stepping stone to eventually the Big12?  Why not just stay in the AAC and win like Houston or Cincy and get into the Big12 that way?

Who knows. There's a lot of shuffling to come. ACC will get raided. Do leftovers go to B12? PAC?  Both?  Raid others?  So incentives like the playoff put pressure on lower teams in B10/SEC to leave?  Do they keep expanding?  Leave NCAA?  Do judicial rulings make scholarship athletes employees and blow everything up? 

No idea. But PAC is an upgrade for now and that's all we can know

[cousin oliver]

19 minutes ago, DentonStang said:

Who knows. There's a lot of shuffling to come.

Agree wholeheartedly on this point.

[NT80]

Why the Pac-12’s future is riding on its long-awaited media-rights deal

"When will we know? The latest prediction in a long line of them, all wrong so far, came recently from Washington State president Kirk Schulz two weeks ago at the WSU Board of Regents meeting. He said he expects a resolution “by the end of the month” — which is rapidly approaching."

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw-husky-football/why-the-pac-12s-future-is-riding-on-its-long-awaited-media-rights-deal/