Ranking the eight Pac-12 expansion candidates based off their odds to join the conference

[Jonnyeagle]

There are two major questions surrounding the Pac-12 at the moment, when they will secure their media rights deal and whether or not they will be expanding.

The media rights deal is something that John Canzano recently discussed with me over onLocked on Buffs, and not only did he sound confident that they will get one soon but he said there is a belief it will equate to more than the Big 12's. While Big 12 country have predicated themselves on praying on the downfall of the conference for pretty much this entire year, there is now some growing confidence coming from the West. 
 

link: https://www.si.com/college/stanford/football/ranking-the-eight-pac-12-expansion-candidates-based-off-their-odds-to-join-the-conference#gid=ci02c1cebeb005256b&pid=the-field

[meangreenfaninno]

Need to be prepared for this as it looks like most of their top picks are from AAC.

[keith]

49 minutes ago, meangreenfaninno said:

Need to be prepared for this as it looks like most of their top picks are from AAC.

Only 2 of the 8 are from the AAC with SMU #2 and Tulane #5 and this is just according to an odds-maker who sees them raiding the MWC more than the AAC.  Early in the article the same odds-maker indicated that the Pac-12 is hesitant to add SMU.  Not sure if he has direct insight on that as that statement contradicts his ranking of SMU as the 2nd most-likely candidate.

[keith]

On a side note, it is amazing to me that all it takes is one good year to become the latest darling of conference re-alignment candidates....see Tulane as evidence of this phenomenon.  Since joining the AAC in 2014 they are a combined 49-65 or .438.  I haven't done the math, but I think they were even worse than that during their tenure in CUSA.  In other words, they have been really bad since 1996.  They go 12-2 last year and all of a sudden they are the next Alabama.  It's a what have you done for me lately world for sure when it comes to college football.

[meanrob]

Better read the fine print on that PAC 12 media deal.  Even the B1G media deal won’t be as much as originally projected. 
 

My guess it will be a lot of money assumptions/targets to project a larger number but it all depends on how much the media tears it apart. If it doesn’t go over well, at least two teams will bolt. Living on the west coast, there’s more doom and gloom than hope.