What Group of 5 teams can make the jump to Power 5?

meangreenfaninno · April 26, 2023

Hale: "The jump" is really a two-part question. There are certainly programs that could join the Big 12 or ACC or Pac-12 and, within a couple years, field competitive teams. But is there a program out there that would also have a chance to grow into a serious brand -- something that moves the needle financially? The additions for the Big 12 (BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF) were about adding the next-best things, not creating true value for a league that just lost two genuine brands. The Pac-12's flirtations with San Diego State or SMU offer some upside with two programs more than capable of winning, but will they become must-see TV for Oregon or Washington fans when their teams face off? There's always long-term growth potential with places like USF or North Texas -- but that's a matter of decades, not years. And there are established fan bases for schools like Memphis or Navy, but they're far from crown jewels that would fetch a hefty TV deal. The truth is, the entire idea of the Power 5 may be irrelevant soon, and the teams that truly move the needle in the big picture do so because of decades of success and fan investment. It's nearly impossible to create that now at places where it doesn't already exist.

READ MORE: https://abc7news.com/sports/what-does-the-future-of-realignment-look-like-in-college-football/13188289/

DentonLurker · April 26, 2023

Is there an echo in here?

GBarksdale · April 26, 2023

@meangreenfaninno I think you missed this discussion from last month

akriesman · April 26, 2023

FWIW, I no longer consider the Pac-12 much of a power conference (When USC and UCLA leave). When Texas and OU leave the Big 12, they will be in a similar situation. IMO, there is a real opportunity for the AAC to close the gap on the future Pac-12, Big 12 and maybe even the ACC.

Edited April 26, 2023 by akriesman

NT80 · April 26, 2023

10 hours ago, meangreenfaninno said:

The truth is, the entire idea of the Power 5 may be irrelevant soon, and the teams that truly move the needle in the big picture do so because of decades of success and fan investment. It's nearly impossible to create that now at places where it doesn't already exist.

The terms P5 and G5 are already irrelevant. There is no decades of success needed, only a short run of good football seasons, and a simple phone call from a P5 Conference that has been poached, and Presto...you're now a P5 Program!

No test, nothing but a phone call (and usually mostly based on location!).

meangreen11 · April 26, 2023

14 minutes ago, NT80 said:

The terms P5 and G5 are already irrelevant. There is no decades of success needed, only a short run of good football seasons, and a simple phone call from a P5 Conference that has been poached, and Presto...you're now a P5 Program!

No test, nothing but a phone call (and usually mostly based on location!).

Yes and I also think the 12 spots for playoffs further diminishes the P5 G5 conundrum. Aresco has been very determined to remove this stigma and hopefully it will finally happen. A program like Cincy has every right to be considered a “Power” program as Oregon State does.

LitMedallion · April 26, 2023

P5 and G5 will go away soon enough.

NT80 · April 26, 2023

2 hours ago, meangreen11 said:

Yes and I also think the 12 spots for playoffs further diminishes the P5 G5 conundrum. Aresco has been very determined to remove this stigma and hopefully it will finally happen. A program like Cincy has every right to be considered a “Power” program as Oregon State does.

20 years ago in the New Orleans Bowl North Texas pounded Cincy.

So, what has happened since then to make Cincy now worthy of a P5 designation but not North Texas?

Yes, I know Cincy went to a Top 6 Bowl, but they haven't had "decades of success" as was the stated requirement for P5 admission.

Hunter Green · April 26, 2023

51 minutes ago, NT80 said:

20 years ago in the New Orleans Bowl North Texas pounded Cincy.

So, what has happened since then to make Cincy now worthy of a P5 designation but not North Texas?

Yes, I know Cincy went to a Top 6 Bowl, but they haven't had "decades of success" as was the stated requirement for P5 admission.

A history of success in basketball sure didn't hurt. That and a few years of kick-ass football teams in a large media market.

NT80 · April 26, 2023

23 minutes ago, Hunter Green said:

A history of success in basketball sure didn't hurt. That and a few years of kick-ass football teams in a large media market.

We have a run of success in basketball if we can keep it going. Football beating Arkansas gave us some brief media. Playing well overall against Boise in the last Bowl was good, but getting crushed by UTSA in the CUSA Championship and losing every Bowl under Seth were huge opportunities lost.

rojomojo · April 26, 2023

Taking all bias out of the picture, these are the schools that I can envision jumping into the P5 in the next 10 years...

Memphis

San Diego State

South Florida

Charlotte

rojomojo · April 26, 2023

Basically the keys to success is to be a large, public university in an urban area... You'll see that's been the trend for the past 20 years (Louisville, Houston, Cincinnati, UCF, Rutgers etc)

TCU is small yet urban, BYU is more rural yet large

DentonLurker · April 26, 2023

I agree with the above in that the P5 designation is going to go away. However, I do not expect the idea behind it to ever go away. There are always going to be programs and/or conferences that are looked at as "premier" and programs and/or conferences that are looked at as "the rest." The thing that may change will be where the line is drawn.

8 minutes ago, rojomojo said:

Charlotte

Charlotte? Why would you choose Charlotte?

Jonnyeagle · April 26, 2023

17 minutes ago, DentonLurker said:

I agree with the above in that the P5 designation is going to go away. However, I do not expect the idea behind it to ever go away. There are always going to be programs and/or conferences that are looked at as "premier" and programs and/or conferences that are looked at as "the rest." The thing that may change will be where the line is drawn.

Charlotte? Why would you choose Charlotte?

How do you assess the impact of 12 playoff spots? Won’t that benefit the have nots.

DentonLurker · April 26, 2023

6 minutes ago, Jonnyeagle said:

How do you assess the impact of 12 playoff spots? Won’t that benefit the have nots.

Maybe, maybe not…

I think we will see how the committee ranks the teams. Only one “G5” is guaranteed a spot. If the remaining 11 spots are all “P5” teams, are the have nots actually in a better spot? UNT had one of our best seasons ever in basketball and the committee found a way to leave them out of a 64+ team tournament.

Mike Jackson · April 27, 2023

10 hours ago, NT80 said:

20 years ago in the New Orleans Bowl North Texas pounded Cincy.

So, what has happened since then to make Cincy now worthy of a P5 designation but not North Texas?

Yes, I know Cincy went to a Top 6 Bowl, but they haven't had "decades of success" as was the stated requirement for P5 admission.

Please go to winspedia.com and compare our programs since 2002. Since 2002 Cincy in a stronger conference has had 12 seasons with 9 wins or more and 8 seasons of 10 wins or more. We can stop the comparison right there. Come on we need to stop being delusional and dishonest with ourselves as to how underwhelming this program has been since the peak of Dickey's tenure here. Our program doesn't win consistently Cincy does.

Edited April 27, 2023 by Mike Jackson

Mike Jackson · April 27, 2023

5 hours ago, DentonLurker said:

Maybe, maybe not…

I think we will see how the committee ranks the teams. Only one “G5” is guaranteed a spot. If the remaining 11 spots are all “P5” teams, are the have nots actually in a better spot? UNT had one of our best seasons ever in basketball and the committee found a way to leave them out of a 64+ team tournament.

Hypothetically an undefeated UTSA team in 2021 probably gets in if Cincy loses. And in that unique year maybe even 2 or 3 G5 teams get into the 12 team playoff. Undefeated 2021 Cincy gets a top 4 seed. A strong cases could be made for a UTSA team that doesn't drown in Denton and 12-1 Sun Belt Champ Louisiana.

wardly · April 27, 2023

15 hours ago, DentonLurker said:

I agree with the above in that the P5 designation is going to go away. However, I do not expect the idea behind it to ever go away. There are always going to be programs and/or conferences that are looked at as "premier" and programs and/or conferences that are looked at as "the rest." The thing that may change will be where the line is drawn.

Charlotte? Why would you choose Charlotte?

I will go with the other 3 programs, especially SDSU and South Florida but Charlotte, I don't think so.

DentonLurker · April 27, 2023

3 hours ago, Mike Jackson said:

And in that unique year maybe even 2 or 3 G5 teams get into the 12 team playoff.

I hear what you're saying. I just don't believe the power players are going to let that happen. Right, wrong or indifferent, I think there will continue to be a case made by a lot of folks that a two or even three loss SEC/BIg10 team deserves to be in the playoffs more than a second "G5" team. We'll see how it plays out, I guess.

Mike Jackson · April 28, 2023

On 4/27/2023 at 9:29 AM, DentonLurker said:

I hear what you're saying. I just don't believe the power players are going to let that happen. Right, wrong or indifferent, I think there will continue to be a case made by a lot of folks that a two or even three loss SEC/BIg10 team deserves to be in the playoffs more than a second "G5" team. We'll see how it plays out, I guess.

You may be right. I do think part of the reason they just did not go to a playoff of 4 bowl winners after all the "traditional" bowl games were played was to limit the progress of G5 programs. That in my opinion would be a better product for everyone involved. Even the bowl games without 2 teams in the top 12-18 are more relevant in that scenario because they would impact the ranking of the top 8. Fans of the teams in the top 8 would be watching bowl games involving lower ranked conference mates hoping they win to boost their team rating to get into the playoff. Every team in FBS plays exclusively in conference for the last month of the regular season it is impossible to rank them versus one another. A P5 teams with identical records in different conferences are impossible to fairly rate against each other.