What Group of 5 teams can make the jump to Power 5? (North Texas has long-term potential but it's decades away)

[gangrene]

What does the future of realignment look like in college football?

[El Paso Eagle]

It's all about having the money to invest and spend. SMU is the premier example that on-the-field success is no longer a requirement. If we were getting Big 12 money, we could be competitive relatively quickly. 

[Wag Tag]

Decades? I disagree. The growth of the area surrounding UNT is second to none in the US. Put a consistent winning football team of the field and money with attendance will increase dramatically. The AAC bringing in known competition on a regular basis will help a lot. I still think BB will be a big winner with the AAC competition coming to the Pit.

[GBarksdale]

“There's always long-term growth potential with places like USF or North Texas -- but that's a matter of decades, not years.”

Decades?  Geez I hope not.  I’d like to see this sometime in my lifetime and I’m not getting any younger.  

[NT80]

Well, we got a mention, it wasn't a big mention but at least some recognition of our potential.   Most don't realize the steps we've taken just in the past 35 years.   From 1-AA to now to AAC.  

[Mike Jackson]

Way too speculative without knowing how hypocrisy of the term “student-athlete” will be adjudicated.  If FBS is forced into a significant bump in revenue sharing among all FBS teams all to stave off making players employees then we can make some predictions.   I also belief that at least 20 teams need to drop down to FCS regardless of what happens.   Twelve teams max in 10 regional conferences and maybe 6 independent programs.  

Edited March 15, 2023 by Mike Jackson

[ADLER]

16 hours ago, GBarksdale said:

“There's always long-term growth potential with places like USF or North Texas -- but that's a matter of decades, not years.”

Decades?  Geez I hope not.  I’d like to see this sometime in my lifetime and I’m not getting any younger.  

That's horseshit. USF joined the Big East P-5 crowd almost instantly after starting FBS football during the Jim Leavitt years and were quickly ranked as high as 3rd in the nation. They had a commitment to winning, an excellent marketing and promotions campaign, and a 75,000 seat Raymond James Stadium for hosting P5 level opponents.

How tough was their challenge? Prior to 1998 they didn't have a single football facility so they had to buy some portable buildings for coaches. Their team had to dress at university gyms and bus to a local practice field and have team meetings under trees. The students voted on a mascot, the Brahmas, and it wasn't until months later when all initial promotional material was already printed that somebody pointed out the obvious; a Brahma is a breed of chickens, a Brahman is a breed of cattle (don't tell the Lone Star Brahmas). USF just changed to Bulls and forged ahead. As an FCS school in 2001 they won their first ever home game against FBS competition when they stomped the incredibly poorly coached North Texas Mean Green. By 2003 USF had joined CUSA and in 2005 South Florida joined the P5 level Big East conference.

So it can be done quickly if planned correctly. Get a facility truly capable of hosting FBS competition, promote the hell out of the program, and hire coaches truly committed to supporting and winning at their school.

That was when the paths of our two programs initially crossed. They went from being totally unknown to winning regularly against Top 25 teams while North Texas was stuck as an FBS pretender competitive against the other lowly Sun Belt schools and being cannon fodder for everyone else.

There have been a lot of improvements at North Texas. A new G5 level stadium has been built, but it's being left at G5 capacity even though we have games scheduled that we know will have demand that far excedes the current seating.

Can we get to P5 consideration quickly? Yes, but it's going to take real facility improvements and dedication to the school. I don't see either being planned, just a lot of "not my job", "that's how it's always been done", and "why expand it and make it functional if it's not currently selling out?"

 

.

 

 

Edited March 15, 2023 by ADLER

[tmjerm]

4 hours ago, ADLER said:

That's horseshit. USF joined the Big East P-5 crowd almost instantly after starting FBS football during the Jim Leavitt years and were quickly ranked as high as 3rd in the nation. They had a commitment to winning, an excellent marketing and promotions campaign, and a 75,000 seat Raymond James Stadium for hosting P5 level opponents.

How tough was their challenge? Prior to 1998 they didn't have a single football facility so they had to buy some portable buildings for coaches. Their team had to dress at university gyms and bus to a local practice field and have team meetings under trees. The students voted on a mascot, the Brahmas, and it wasn't until months later when all initial promotional material was already printed that somebody pointed out the obvious; a Brahma is a breed of chickens, a Brahman is a breed of cattle (don't tell the Lone Star Brahmas). USF just changed to Bulls and forged ahead. As an FCS school in 2001 they won their first ever home game against FBS competition when they stomped the incredibly poorly coached North Texas Mean Green. By 2003 USF had joined CUSA and in 2005 South Florida joined the P5 level Big East conference.

So it can be done quickly if planned correctly. Get a facility truly capable of hosting FBS competition, promote the hell out of the program, and hire coaches truly committed to supporting and winning at their school.

That was when the paths of our two programs initially crossed. They went from being totally unknown to winning regularly against Top 25 teams while North Texas was stuck as an FBS pretender competitive against the other lowly Sun Belt schools and being cannon fodder for everyone else.

There have been a lot of improvements at North Texas. A new G5 level stadium has been built, but it's being left at G5 capacity even though we have games scheduled that we know will have demand that far excedes the current seating.

Can we get to P5 consideration quickly? Yes, but it's going to take real facility improvements and dedication to the school. I don't see either being planned, just a lot of "not my job", "that's how it's always been done", and "why expand it and make it functional if it's not currently selling out?"

 

.

 

 

Yeah but it turned out to be a house of cards 

[Mike Jackson]

4 hours ago, ADLER said:

There have been a lot of improvements at North Texas. A new G5 level stadium has been built, but it's being left at G5 capacity even though we have games scheduled that we know will have demand that far excedes the current seating.

Can we get to P5 consideration quickly? Yes, but it's going to take real facility improvements and dedication to the school. I don't see either being planned, just a lot of "not my job", "that's how it's always been done", and "why expand it and make it functional if it's not currently selling out?"

This entire post captures how my love for North Texas is matched by my frustration with the football program and the attitude surrounding it.  It is hard to really say we have been 100% committed to winning with all the half measures we have taken over the years.  With that in mind my criticism of Seth’s tenure would have be far less if leadership prior to his arrival gave me the impression they were 100%.   It is also why I noted the lack of public courtship of Coach Sanders.  I guarantee if the leadership that presided over USF during the early days of their ascension had a mediocre coach that had not won anything significant when uniquely hyped coach like Sanders was around they would have courted him.  I think the silence on coach Sanders speaks louder to me than anything leadership had done since Apogee was completed.  Coach Sanders guaranteed would have brought 4 and 5 star recruits here.  He also would have motivated thousands local of alumni who are also mid 1990s Cowboys fans to pay attention to the program, buy tickets, merchandise, and donate especially if we started winning big.  The PAC 12 is probably looking at adding North Texas and SMU as a package deal right now if we had Coach Sanders.  We went cheap on facilities, support staff and coaches for as long as possible.  Then when we have all those things in place we gave our mediocre head coach unwarranted contract security.  And I believe largely because he was a nice guy and someone better would cost more (with or without buying Seth out).   You can even look at Dickey’s tenure here and see the half-ass commitment.  It would have been logical for the construction of Apogee to start somewhere toward the end of their undefeated run in the Sun Belt.  But not only didn’t construction start end, it started 3 years after he was fired.  
 

I just get the feeling we are trying to win the budget friendly way without the elite academic reputation to support that model.  So categorizing USF with UNT is just poor research on the author’s part.  Who knows if our leadership will ever have the courage to make the huge commitment to getting us to P5 level.  Because it is very reasonable to speculate that our move up to the AAC would have taken place a decade ago.  If we  played Houston and SMU annually for a decade (with a 0.500 or better record against both) and went to bowls the P5 are looking to package us with SMU and/or Houston to capture market share in Texas.

[tmjerm]

USF is 4-29 in the last three seasons and havent had a winning record since 2018 at 7-6 under Charlie Strong.  They're shit and also no longer P5 and will be in the same conference as us next year.  The case being made may have made sense 10 years ago, but it damn sure doesnt now which ultimately means it didnt make sense back then.  I get the sentiment - invest in the program.  Won't argue with that, but the USF reference is nonsense. 

[ADLER]

2 hours ago, tmjerm said:

USF is 4-29 in the last three seasons and havent had a winning record since 2018 at 7-6 under Charlie Strong.  They're shit and also no longer P5 and will be in the same conference as us next year.  The case being made may have made sense 10 years ago, but it damn sure doesnt now which ultimately means it didnt make sense back then.  I get the sentiment - invest in the program.  Won't argue with that, but the USF reference is nonsense. 

This is exactly why USF is a perfect example of the razor's edge that is football at our level. The "sleeping giant" G5 schools that have either made all the right moves to become nationally respected, and the ones that have floundered in relative obscurity because of their poor decisions. USF has now spent a little over a decade on each side.

Many of those "sleeping giants" big schools in big markets that had been perpetually locked out of the big boys club have worked their way in; Cincinnati, Louisvile, Houston, UCF. Others like Memphis and UTSA are getting noticed because of their limited success and their large bowl game stadiums capable of hosting P5 teams. And then there's the rest, the FIU's, the Texas States, the Georgia States, and now USF, the schools that everybody always talks about their potential but they're just busy treading water.

In which group do we fit? Are we content there? That will determine where we will be a decade from now.

 

.

Edited March 15, 2023 by ADLER

[Mike Jackson]

2 hours ago, tmjerm said:

USF is 4-29 in the last three seasons and havent had a winning record since 2018 at 7-6 under Charlie Strong.  They're shit and also no longer P5 and will be in the same conference as us next year.  The case being made may have made sense 10 years ago, but it damn sure doesnt now which ultimately means it didnt make sense back then.  I get the sentiment - invest in the program.  Won't argue with that, but the USF reference is nonsense. 

The regression isn’t an excuse for half ass effort of leaders of our program imo.  I hope that wasn’t part of the point you are making.  They BEGAN a football program from scratch in 1997.  You say they have been 💩the last 3 years and that is absolutely correct.  We started with over 50 years of football history and  already two years back in FBS under our belts head start.  We haven’t even flirted with the level of success Boise State, USF and UTSA achieved coming to this level of football with no history on the FBS level (or ANY football at any level in the case of USF or UTSA).  If you were to grade leadership when it comes to FBS football from 1995 till the end of 2022 season the grade would be C.  The only way they could get a worse grade would be in the Sun Belt, dropped back down to FCS.  They’ve done pretty much the minimum to for this program not to tank.

All the proof of this I need is the turnouts we’ve had when the program did something noteworthy fans show up.  But during that build up it hard to get my friends and family to come to games. And chiefly it is because well established reputation of the program of not swinging big and making moves late.  The refrain I get from non-engaged alumni is that the program doesn’t try that hard. They want you to show up and spend money in comfortable mediocrity.  

Edited March 15, 2023 by Mike Jackson

[tmjerm]

35 minutes ago, Mike Jackson said:

The regression isn’t an excuse for half ass effort of leaders of our program imo.  I hope that wasn’t part of the point you are making.

Not in the least.  Just saying I'm not envying USF.  We just need to be a better version of ourselves. 

Edited March 15, 2023 by tmjerm

[NT80]

11 minutes ago, ADLER said:

This is exactly why USF is a perfect example of the razor's edge that is football at our level. The "sleeping giant" G5 schools that have either made all the right moves to become nationally respected, and the ones that have floundered in relative obscurity because of their poor decisions. USF has now spent a little over a decade on each side.

Many of those "sleeping giants" big schools in big markets that had been perpetually locked out of the big boys club have worked their way in; Cincinnati, Louisvile, Houston, UCF. Others like Memphis and UTSA are getting noticed because of their limited success and their large bowl game stadiums capable of hosting P5 teams. And then there's the rest, the FIU's, the Texas States, the Georgia States, and now USF, the schools that everybody always talks about their potential but they're just busy treading water.

In which group do we fit? That will determine where we will be a decade from now.

Everyone thought Boise was the G5 model to copy.   We used to beat them bad in the Big West, then they exploded upward with some great coaches and great Bowl wins (OU).   Now however they have recessed a little and we were within 3 points of them in our recent Bowl loss.   Their location is not helpful to them unless the PAC forgets about academics and moves them up.

UCF is another case study in upward G5 pathway.   They used a 13-0 season to attract attention to the G5 cause, rallied their student body to push home attendance way up and have been promoted to P5 by their potential and location.  

NT has the location, potential and growth to become a P5.  But it will take more work internally from school admin and staff, and especially students to really want and push for it.   Some landmark wins would be nice too!

[ADLER]

25 minutes ago, tmjerm said:

Not in the least.  Just saying I'm in envying USF.  We just need to be a better version of ourselves. 

Please understand, I am comparing programs that advance, and those that stagnate. USF has been a striking example of both. 

What allowed them to climb so quickly, and what has bogged them down in the dozen years since the infamous slapping incident?

[Green Otaku]

3 hours ago, Mike Jackson said:

  The PAC 12 is probably looking at adding North Texas and SMU as a package deal right now if we had Coach Sanders.  

This might be the single most insane thing ever posted on this site. Please tell me you are on some type of pain medication because this is so far from reality that it's the only explanation. 

[Green Otaku]

11 minutes ago, ADLER said:

Please understand, I am comparing programs that advance, and those that stagnate. USF has been a striking example of both. 

What allowed them to climb so quickly, and what has bogged them down in the dozen years since the infamous slapping incident?

So we've basically caught up to USF. They haven't advanced past the last doorway, while we've just arrived at the landing. I think it's a good indication that the program has had an upward trajectory. We may not have gotten here as fast as most of us would have liked, but we are here now. Outside of a very rare few these things don't happen overnight, so it's in UNT's hands to prove they belong in the next tier otherwise we will be like USF and stuck on the final step. 

[greenminer]

I never felt like USF's rise and fall was a House of Cards.

I think it's a great example of how, when done correctly (and maybe witha. little luck/timing), you can rise very quickly.  Anyone.  But on the flip side CFB is really hard to sustain success.  Even when done right.

[Mike Jackson]

1 hour ago, NT80 said:

NT has the location, potential and growth to become a P5.  But it will take more work internally from school admin and staff, and especially students to really want and push for it.   Some landmark wins would be nice too!

I would focus on the students.  You win they will come out, if you don’t they won’t.  I don’t think the athletic are foremost in students minds when the chose to enroll here.   Sustaining success is definitely harder than a short spectacular successful run.  But I think with our advantages over schools that had those great run and regressed are significant.  I really think all we need to turn the corner is a good 5 year run that includes a few bowl wins and a combine record versus UTSA/SMU of 7-3 or 8-2 minimum.  Then we can consider ascending from there.  

[ADLER]

Winning is a goal, not a strategy.

 

[Mike Jackson]

21 hours ago, ADLER said:

Winning is a goal, not a strategy.

 

So what are the strategies to WIN?  Because no amount of marketing is going to get people to invest in a local AAC team that doesn’t win.  Unless your non-conference schedule is all old Big 8/SWC teams  and you are competitive with them you can’t have an around 0.500 AAC record and get people to buy into program.  Also you can’t lose all your most hyped home games for a decade (sans horrible weather game against UTSA) and expect progress either. 

[ADLER]

1 hour ago, Mike Jackson said:

So what are the strategies to WIN?  

Build your fan base.

I went to the North Texas game at USF in 2001. Before that season I had never even heard of the existance of USF. All I learned was that it was a large commuter university that had recently started sports, played FCS ball and had committed to moving up to FBS football. And they were playing their games in the new 75,000 seat Raymond James Stadium 20 minutes from campus.

I went expecting to find a few thousand at most ragtag misfits rattling around in an oversize venue. After all, given the conditions, how could this place have any school spirit at all?

I was shocked. I arrived at the stadium parking and the fencing at the entrances was covered in USF Bulls banners. I had never even seen their logo before. Upon entering the parking lot there were thousands of people tailgaing, ALL wearing green and gold USF gear, and there were USF 3x5 flags flying over most cars.

How in hell did THIS school get THIS popular? It was like being at a Nebraska or Michigan game.

At the stadium entrance I received a major hint. They had thousands and thousands of USF shirts in school colors with their new logo for sale, $3 each. This wasn't just a college, it's billed as THE home team for Tampa.

They had thousands of USF baseball caps for something like $5.

And they were selling the big USF Bulls 3x5 flags for $5 each.

All tax free.

It was like Mardi Gras the rate that these items were being handed out. At that price people were buying USF shirts for their friends, family, and neighbors.

I bought one of the 3x5 flags as a souvenir and asked the university employee selling them how they could sell them so cheaply. He said "we buy them in the thousands for around $6 each and sell them at a small loss at $5 each. These flags wind up flying at tailgating events, displayed in front of homes, and on the walls of our student's dorms and apartments. It's promotion and advertising at really no cost." And he said "we're doing the same thing with the shirts, hats, and other logo merchandise." I went into the stadium and saw that Buccaneers was covered up by USF Bulls everywhere they could. All the red banner lighting was switched to green, and the enormous jumbotron continously displayed a slowly spinning 3d model of their logo. 

And never-heard-of 1AA South Florida torched North Texas 28-10 in front of 25,156 fans that day. It was the first time that they had ever beaten a FBS team at home and they celebrated.

USF was drawing huge crowds playing at Raymond James Stadium by the early 2000's

So, that's how USF went from being a non-entity 1AA school in 2001 to an invitation to CUSA in 2003, and then to join the then P5 Big East conference by 2005. They built a united cohesive fan base which star players wanted to play for.

Please remember this when somebody adds their fashion color to your school colors, when somebody's gameday attire is gray of black but with a UNT logo, when substitute logos like throwbacks and interlocked TN's are used, when season ticket gifts are license plate frames that will never be used, and freebie give-away tee shirts are printed on white shirts instead of green.

There is a right way to do it, and there is a wrong way. USF was doing everything right up until the slap incident and firing of Leavitt. Since then, the crowds have dwindled, winning has decreased, and they are planning to build a new undersized 35,000 seat stadium which will better serve their current needs but forever keep them at the G5 level. The dream has ended, and they've had to sit and watch close rival UCF achieve that dream.

[DeepGreen]

Adler's on a role!  No stopping him now.

Very informative information and well written.

[NT80]

1 hour ago, ADLER said:

Build your fan base.

I went to the North Texas game at USF in 2001. Before that season I had never even heard of the existance of USF. All I learned was that it was a large commuter university that had recently started sports, played FCS ball and had committed to moving up to FBS football. And they were playing their games in the new 75,000 seat Raymond James Stadium 20 minutes from campus.

I went expecting to find a few thousand at most ragtag misfits rattling around in an oversize venue. After all, given the conditions, how could this place have any school spirit at all?

I was shocked. I arrived at the stadium parking and the fencing at the entrances was covered in USF Bulls banners. I had never even seen their logo before. Upon entering the parking lot there were thousands of people tailgaing, ALL wearing green and gold USF gear, and there were USF 3x5 flags flying over most cars.

How in hell did THIS school get THIS popular? It was like being at a Nebraska or Michigan game.

At the stadium entrance I received a major hint. They had thousands and thousands of USF shirts in school colors with their new logo for sale, $3 each. This wasn't just a college, it's billed as THE home team for Tampa.

They had thousands of USF baseball caps for something like $5.

And they were selling the big USF Bulls 3x5 flags for $5 each.

All tax free.

It was like Mardi Gras the rate that these items were being handed out. At that price people were buying USF shirts for their friends, family, and neighbors.

I bought one of the 3x5 flags as a souvenir and asked the university employee selling them how they could sell them so cheaply. He said "we buy them in the thousands for around $6 each and sell them at a small loss at $5 each. These flags wind up flying at tailgating events, displayed in front of homes, and on the walls of our student's dorms and apartments. It's promotion and advertising at really no cost." And he said "we're doing the same thing with the shirts, hats, and other logo merchandise." I went into the stadium and saw that Buccaneers was covered up by USF Bulls everywhere they could. All the red banner lighting was switched to green, and the enormous jumbotron continously displayed a slowly spinning 3d model of their logo. 

And never-heard-of 1AA South Florida torched North Texas 28-10 in front of 25,156 fans that day. It was the first time that they had ever beaten a FBS team at home and they celebrated.

USF was drawing huge crowds playing at Raymond James Stadium by the early 2000's

So, that's how USF went from being a non-entity 1AA school in 2001 to an invitation to CUSA in 2003, and then to join the then P5 Big East conference by 2005. They built a united cohesive fan base which star players wanted to play for.

Please remember this when somebody adds their fashion color to your school colors, when somebody's gameday attire is gray of black but with a UNT logo, when substitute logos like throwbacks and interlocked TN's are used, when season ticket gifts are license plate frames that will never be used, and freebie give-away tee shirts are printed on white shirts instead of green.

There is a right way to do it, and there is a wrong way. USF was doing everything right up until the slap incident and firing of Leavitt. Since then, the crowds have dwindled, winning has decreased, and they are planning to build a new undersized 35,000 seat stadium which will better serve their current needs but forever keep them at the G5 level. The dream has ended, and they've had to sit and watch close rival UCF achieve that dream.

Excellent example.    It's similar to UTSA's start, large metro area without an FBS college team in town.   

NT could likewise be this large Public University presence to DFW...  If we would just learn to market ourselves as "in DFW" instead of outside of DFW in Denton.   Denton county won't support UNT Athletics like the entire DFW metro area can!

[greenminer]

8 hours ago, ADLER said:

When SMU reports a buget of $68,812,414 it is a ficticious number based on a roughly $50,000,000 waiver (or more) from the university in which no money is supplied and nothing is paid back. Almost all private schools work this way.

The people at SMU aren't stupid. If they were really having to pay $70 million per year on entertainment for 11,000 students and a few thousand alumni, then Division 1 athletics would be cancelled immediately. 

where can I read more about this?