2023 Championship Week Upsets

GMG_Dallas · March 4, 2023

Starting this thread since conference tournaments have been going on for a few days now. It's March. Madness is afoot.

In the OVC, #1 seed Morehead State (21-11, 14-5) lost to #5 seed Southeast Missouri State (18-16, 11-8).

In the Sun Belt, #1 seed Southern Miss (25-6, 14-4) trails South Alabama (17-15, 9-9) by 16 with 3:41 left to go.

Not sure either of these affect the bubble. Just posting these and will add on tournament upsets as they happen. We were a victim last year. I'd love for us to make FAU a victim this year. Should be a fun March.

Edited March 4, 2023 by GMG_Dallas

GMG_Dallas · March 6, 2023

Only one real upset today. There were a few close calls but close doesn't cut it in March.

In the Big Sky tournament, number 1 seed Eastern Washington (22-10, 16-2) went down on a last second buzzer beater to number 9 seed Northern Arizona (11-22, 5-13).

Not many upsets so far but the bulk of the tournaments start this week so we should see more. Upsets are inevitable in any postseason event. Hopefully upset season is waiting for FAU and UAB later this week.

NT80 · March 6, 2023

32 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Only one real upset today. There were a few close calls but close doesn't cut it in March.

In the Big Sky tournament, number 1 seed Eastern Washington (22-10, 16-2) went down on a last second buzzer beater to number 9 seed Northern Arizona (11-22, 5-13).

Not many upsets so far but the bulk of the tournaments start this week so we should see more. Upsets are inevitable in any postseason event. Hopefully upset season is waiting for FAU and UAB later this week.

Here is the NCAA link to all 32 Conference tournaments, auto-bids...

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2023-03-05/2023-ncaa-conference-tournaments-schedules-brackets-scores-auto-bids

(Of course CUSA's linked PDF brackets have no teams listed...) https://conferenceusa.com/documents/2023/2/7/bkbch23_M_W_bracket_11_web_seeds.pdf

................................................................................................................

Also, the NIT will again be a 32-team field announced Sunday March 12. Finals this year moving to Las Vegas...

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2023-01-19/2023-nit-bracket-schedule-mens-tournament

Edited March 6, 2023 by NT80

GMG_Dallas · March 6, 2023

11 hours ago, NT80 said:

Here is the NCAA link to all 32 Conference tournaments, auto-bids...

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2023-03-05/2023-ncaa-conference-tournaments-schedules-brackets-scores-auto-bids

(Of course CUSA's linked PDF brackets have no teams listed...) https://conferenceusa.com/documents/2023/2/7/bkbch23_M_W_bracket_11_web_seeds.pdf

................................................................................................................

Also, the NIT will again be a 32-team field announced Sunday March 12. Finals this year moving to Las Vegas...

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2023-01-19/2023-nit-bracket-schedule-mens-tournament

Good links. I'm keeping tabs on upsets because while we're not technically a bubble team per the experts, they also don't make decisions and I've read several experts say the field of high-major bubble squads is so weak, they could see more mid-majors get in than last year. That dream dies if some of these 17-13 Big 10, Big 12, and ACC squads get a few good wins in their respective conference tournaments.

Edited March 6, 2023 by GMG_Dallas

GMG_Dallas · March 8, 2023

Yesterday, CAA number 1 seed Hofstra went down to number 4 seed UNC Wilmington who can punch their ticket to the NCAA tournament with a win against Charlston today. They're currently tied at 11 on CBSSN.

In the Horizon, number 1 seed Youngstown State lost to number 4 seed Northern Kentucky.

By my count, 3 out of 6 number 1 seeds did not win their respective tournaments so far.

MeanMag · March 8, 2023

The absolute best site for tracking this:

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/conference-tournaments

outoftown · March 8, 2023

It probably doesn't matter for UNT in terms of the NCAA tournament (and i don't think we really had a bid stealer there yet). However when those lower rung conferences have the regular season winner upset, that usually means a NIT bid goes away. Not that UNT shouldn't get an NIT bid anyway, as likely 10-15 such upsets would have to happen for that to affect UNT other than who they are playing should they end up in the NIT.

GMG_Dallas · March 8, 2023

3 hours ago, outoftown said:

It probably doesn't matter for UNT in terms of the NCAA tournament (and i don't think we really had a bid stealer there yet). However when those lower rung conferences have the regular season winner upset, that usually means a NIT bid goes away. Not that UNT shouldn't get an NIT bid anyway, as likely 10-15 such upsets would have to happen for that to affect UNT other than who they are playing should they end up in the NIT.

UNCW beating Charlston would have been the first possible bid stealer. Metrics aside, I have a hard time seeing a 30-win team miss the tournament. Has this happened before?

Regarding UNT, I think we've made up ground since the Charlotte loss with other bubble teams having bad losses. Several independent bracketoligists currently have UNT as a Last 4 Out. If some of those bubble squads have early first round exits and we make the finals following two convincing wins, it can happen. If that happens, our NET would probably jump to the low 30s. By my count, only 5 teams with a NET better than 40 have ever missed the NCAA tournament since this metric was introduced and all 5 of them were of power conferences.

Matt from A700 · March 8, 2023

Going through the tournaments that have already kicked off.

#1 Eastern Washington was knocked out early in the Big Sky tournament. But at 22-10, that isn't good enough to kick us out. If #2 Montana State (24-9) loses in the championship, we'll still be fine there.

No upset in the Big South as #1 UNC Asheville takes the automatic bid.

#1 Hofstra goes down in favor of #2 Charleston, but I think we will be fine. If people were doubting 31-3 Charleston's tournament resume, then I don't think we have to worry about a 24-9 Hofstra bumping us.

In the Horizon League, #1 Youngstown State went out early. Again, they are only 24-9.

In the MVC, #2 Drake blew out #1 Bradley, who finishes 25-9.

In the OVC, #1 Morehead State went out early and finished only 21-11. Not any impressive records in that conference at all. Southeast Missouri gets in at 19-16.

Need 25-9 Colgate to take care of business against Lafeyette in the Patriot League championship tonight. Whoever wins tonight between Northwestern State and TAMUCC will win the Southland Conference at 23-10, the other will sit out of the NCAA Tournament at 22-11.

I think Southern Miss's early loss will send them to the NIT, and won't bump us.

The major conferences with the bubble teams haven't really started their tourneys yet.

Edited March 8, 2023 by Matt from A700

UNTLifer · March 8, 2023

@Matt from A700 Drake over Bradley. And thanks for the updates.

Matt from A700 · March 8, 2023

1 hour ago, UNTLifer said:

@Matt from A700 Drake over Bradley. And thanks for the updates.

Fixed it! And thanks, shoutout to @MeanMag for the awesome link. I just used that and summarized.

Jonnyeagle · March 8, 2023

3 hours ago, Matt from A700 said:

Going through the tournaments that have already kicked off.

#1 Eastern Washington was knocked out early in the Big Sky tournament. But at 22-10, that isn't good enough to kick us out. If #2 Montana State (24-9) loses in the championship, we'll still be fine there.

No upset in the Big South as #1 UNC Asheville takes the automatic bid.

#1 Hofstra goes down in favor of #2 Charleston, but I think we will be fine. If people were doubting 31-3 Charleston's tournament resume, then I don't think we have to worry about a 24-9 Hofstra bumping us.

In the Horizon League, #1 Youngstown State went out early. Again, they are only 24-9.

In the MVC, #2 Drake blew out #1 Bradley, who finishes 25-9.

In the OVC, #1 Morehead State went out early and finished only 21-11. Not any impressive records in that conference at all. Southeast Missouri gets in at 19-16.

Need 25-9 Colgate to take care of business against Lafeyette in the Patriot League championship tonight. Whoever wins tonight between Northwestern State and TAMUCC will win the Southland Conference at 23-10, the other will sit out of the NCAA Tournament at 22-11.

I think Southern Miss's early loss will send them to the NIT, and won't bump us.

The major conferences with the bubble teams haven't really started their tourneys yet.

Good stuff Matt. Thanks for the update.

Matt from A700 · March 8, 2023

13 minutes ago, Jonnyeagle said:

Good stuff Matt. Thanks for the update.

Better than doing real work at my actual job!

GMG_Dallas · March 8, 2023

59 minutes ago, Matt from A700 said:

Better than doing real work at my actual job!

This is what I do at work too! It's March, they're lucky I didn't schedule a minor surgery to stay home.

Big game right now between Gerogia Tech and Pitt. If GA Tech knocks off Pitt, that may push Pitt out of at-large consideration. They're currently amongst the 11 seeds on the bubble. It's a 3 point game with under 10 to go.

GMG_Dallas · March 9, 2023

Well, Pitt held on but huge upset in the Big East tournament with Seton Hall falling to DePaul. Umoja Gibson hit 3 free throws with 4 seconds left. Big bubble implications. I'll let this person's tweet explain.

Wisconsin, who's on the a bubble, is losing to Ohio State late in their game. It's 57-43 Buckeyes with under 4 minutes. A Wisconsin loss but likely knock them out of the bubble.

Matt from A700 · March 9, 2023

4 hours ago, GMG_Dallas said:

This is what I do at work too! It's March, they're lucky I didn't schedule a minor surgery to stay home.

Big game right now between Gerogia Tech and Pitt. If GA Tech knocks off Pitt, that may push Pitt out of at-large consideration. They're currently amongst the 11 seeds on the bubble. It's a 3 point game with under 10 to go.

Super enticed to take a half day Friday assuming we make it there. Especially if we have to play UAB.

CMJ · March 9, 2023

Was hoping UNC would go down tonight, but they're crushing BC.

GMG_Dallas · March 9, 2023

6 minutes ago, CMJ said:

Was hoping UNC would go down tonight, but they're crushing BC.

Same. At the same time, Texas Tech is down 20 to WVU with under 6 to go. Best possible outcome, IMO. TTech was a bubble team but with a 20 point loss in their first conference tournament game, I think they're out for good. No way to bounce back. A close loss might have been fine for Tech but not here. The bubble is open.

GMG_Dallas · March 10, 2023

Most important upset of the day for the bubble is SJSU upsetting Nevada in the MWC quarter finals. Probably knocks Nevada out of the bubble and makes our win against them look better.

Ohio State beat Iowa and they'll face Michigan State. Wouldn't mind an OH State win against MSU because they're too far out to get an at-large and it would hurt MSU's at large chances.