Big 12 expansion

Green Otaku · March 4, 2023

1 hour ago, NT80 said:

The $22M deal reportedly also includes ESPN's control of who the PAC adds if new members are needed. They have already said no to Smut (as value added), lol.

Yeah I saw reports about that, I'd wager ESPN holds all of the leverage here. Looking at it from their eyes they already have SMU with the AAC, they don't have SDSU. If the PAC refuses to do as ESPN says they can just pull their deal, and essentially force the PAC teams to leave to the Big12, so they will have mountain/pacific time slots one way or the other.

This deal is also rumored that Amazon and ESPN will carry 1 game EACH a week, with Amazon getting the premier match up. That's a huge drop in exposure and I would bet is the reason ION was rumored as a partner. They were trying to get more games on tv for the other members. That along with the getting paid $10m less than the Big12 is driving speculation of more defections.

wardly · March 5, 2023

On 3/4/2023 at 9:46 AM, ADLER said:

Where did you see any insinuation that I said WSU and OSU would join the AAC? They, along with the PACs other 2 new tagalongs, will have no other option than the MWC if they wish to stay together.

And hopefully SMU is too proud to come crawling back to the AAC.

I must have dreamed it.

Mike Jackson · March 6, 2023

On 3/3/2023 at 4:13 PM, NT80 said:

They will not want to give up their GOR (grant of media rights) for 5 years like the PAC wants if it's a low-ball PAC offer.

I think that 5 year time frame/contract length is the aspect that no one is fully appreciating right now. Even if they match the Big 12 in dollars they won’t match the Big 12 in exposure with the rumored deals on the table now. If the Big 12 and their media partners offer the PAC 12 team they want +30 million dollars a year there is no reason to stay in the PAC 12. The 5 years will be a stay if execution. The Big 12 has captured all the G5 teams that are ready to compete with P5 schools in large markets west of the Mississippi River. I can’t think of a survival scenario for the PAC 12 as a P5 conference that doesn’t involve raiding another P5 for members. And the best candidates that want to get out of their current conference are ACC East coast teams.

NT80 · March 6, 2023

3 hours ago, Mike Jackson said:

I think that 5 year time frame/contract length is the aspect that no one is fully appreciating right now. Even if they match the Big 12 in dollars they won’t match the Big 12 in exposure with the rumored deals on the table now. If the Big 12 and their media partners offer the PAC 12 team they want +30 million dollars a year there is no reason to stay in the PAC 12. The 5 years will be a stay if execution. The Big 12 has captured all the G5 teams that are ready to compete with P5 schools in large markets west of the Mississippi River. I can’t think of a survival scenario for the PAC 12 as a P5 conference that doesn’t involve raiding another P5 for members. And the best candidates that want to get out of their current conference are ACC East coast teams.

There is also internal battles going on within the PAC schools about Athletics vs Academics. Many school Presidents want to only align with similar academic schools for expansion since losing UCLA and USC (SDSU, Smut, perhaps Tulane and Colo St.). So far they have snubbed good athletic football programs like Boise and Fresno and the Big12. But boosters and ADs want quality athletics, better normal media coverage (not streaming) and $$ for the programs. It's an interesting battle.

GrayEagle · March 7, 2023

On 3/3/2023 at 12:50 PM, UNTFan23 said:

Since it's not specifically mentioned, the Big12 is going to raid the PAC?

It's pretty specific. It is said that the Big12 is going to raid (part of) the PAC. They are offering the Four Corners teams...Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State admission to the Big 12. Brigham Young undoubtedly would love that since all three are closer than Texas Tech and Kansas State (the closest members to them).

outoftown · March 7, 2023

On 3/4/2023 at 8:00 AM, Green Otaku said:

It all depends how this thing all shake out. The rumor is they have a deal for $22m, that's low for P5, but more than double what the AAC makes, so they will have some revenue coming in. The whole situation could stabilize or landslide at any minute because there's rumors flying everywhere right now.

As far as being seen as a P5, which is a label that was created not an official designation, that too depends on if they lose more teams or not. If they manage to keep the 10 together maybe they can hold on to that perception. They'd have to overcome less revenue, and less exposure while still excelling on the field. If they lose more teams they can pretty much kiss that perception goodbye.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_Five_conferences

If it is really 22 million with the current 10 team lineup, then at least one school is gonna refuse the grant of rights. And that will create a domino effect. And if the membership changes you can guarantee that tv companies are gonna have clauses in this one where they get out of it or reduce payment very substantially if current members leave, because it is too likely to happen and they have to protect themselves against that risk. At that point the money will probably end up being a lot closer to the AAC than to the Big12.

Edited March 7, 2023 by outoftown

DentonStang · March 7, 2023

If you line up all the media coverage, it is all conflicting. None of it, including the pro-PAC media, is trustworthy or accurate. The little bit of real inside info from trustworthy SMU sources not shared publically conflicts with all of it.

It's a waste to go down that rabbit hole until there are some facts. Right now all we really know is at some point there will be a media deal on the table, and if there is expansion SDSU and SMU are the next two in.

Beyond that is a sea of propaganda by pro-PAC sources, B12 media campaign destabilize or at least damage credibility of PAC relative to B12, baseless speculation, copycats to capitalize on clicks, and somewhere, nuggets of truth unrecognizable in a sea of BS.

Edited March 7, 2023 by DentonStang

rcade · March 7, 2023

I wasn't expecting the entire PAC to leave the conference just because SMU is reportedly joining.

NT80 · March 7, 2023

34 minutes ago, rcade said:

I wasn't expecting the entire PAC to leave the conference just because SMU is reportedly joining.

It is causing the whole Conference to seriously consider folding!

TripleGrad · March 7, 2023

42 minutes ago, rcade said:

I wasn't expecting the entire PAC to leave the conference just because SMU is reportedly joining.

It's a radical solution, but not an unreasonable one.

Green Otaku · March 7, 2023

3 hours ago, outoftown said:

If it is really 22 million with the current 10 team lineup, then at least one school is gonna refuse the grant of rights. And that will create a domino effect. And if the membership changes you can guarantee that tv companies are gonna have clauses in this one where they get out of it or reduce payment very substantially if current members leave, because it is too likely to happen and they have to protect themselves against that risk. At that point the money will probably end up being a lot closer to the AAC than to the Big12.

Yes, pretty much everything hinges on the media rights negotiations.

NT80 · March 7, 2023

17 minutes ago, Green Otaku said:

Yes, pretty much everything hinges on the media rights negotiations.

Yes, and then, depending on the term of the deal will schools like Oregon and Washington give up their media rights if they could be waiting on a Big10 offer. One school declining to be all-in could affect others.

Green Otaku · March 7, 2023

3 hours ago, DentonStang said:

If you line up all the media coverage, it is all conflicting. None of it, including the pro-PAC media, is trustworthy or accurate. The little bit of real inside info from trustworthy SMU sources not shared publically conflicts with all of it.

It's a waste to go down that rabbit hole until there are some facts. Right now all we really know is at some point there will be a media deal on the table, and if there is expansion SDSU and SMU are the next two in.

Beyond that is a sea of propaganda by pro-PAC sources, B12 media campaign destabilize or at least damage credibility of PAC relative to B12, baseless speculation, copycats to capitalize on clicks, and somewhere, nuggets of truth unrecognizable in a sea of BS.

Who was the SMU poster saying we'd see an announcement about the media deal on Tuesday or the Pac12 BB tourney? I'm trying to find the post, but it looks like they deleted it.

DentonStang · March 8, 2023

7 hours ago, Green Otaku said:

Who was the SMU poster saying we'd see an announcement about the media deal on Tuesday or the Pac12 BB tourney? I'm trying to find the post, but it looks like they deleted it.

Don't know, but Tuesday was never expected to be an announcement. There were conference meetings today, it was assumed there would be leaks. If successful announcement Thursday. Or, if not, next slate of conference meetings are in 2 weeks. And so on.

mustangfan · March 8, 2023

1 hour ago, DentonStang said:

Don't know, but Tuesday was never expected to be an announcement. There were conference meetings today, it was assumed there would be leaks. If successful announcement Thursday. Or, if not, next slate of conference meetings are in 2 weeks. And so on.

I had been hearing Tues as well, but had not shared it here or anywhere else. I think that the PAC12 is wanting major revenue concessions from potential new additions which is possibly slowing down the process a bit. I still think it could happen but not as quickly as originally thought.

UNTLifer · March 8, 2023

PAC 12 =

Season 10 Episode 20 GIF by The Simpsons

SMU=

Oh Yeah Yes GIF by Bounce

Green Otaku · March 8, 2023

3 hours ago, DentonStang said:

Don't know, but Tuesday was never expected to be an announcement. There were conference meetings today, it was assumed there would be leaks. If successful announcement Thursday. Or, if not, next slate of conference meetings are in 2 weeks. And so on.

Maybe I read it on another forum and I'm just remembering it wrong. Other rumors I've heard are April before anything one way or the other is announced.

ADLER · March 8, 2023

1 hour ago, Green Otaku said:

Maybe I read it on another forum and I'm just remembering it wrong. Other rumors I've heard are April before anything one way or the other is announced.

The Big 10 will not be meeting until April and they will then have a new commissioner in place. They will then be able to vote on whether to issue invitations.

Hunter Green · March 8, 2023

23 hours ago, rcade said:

I wasn't expecting the entire PAC to leave the conference just because SMU is reportedly joining.

I'm just happy to see smut get the heck out of town. Good riddance.

Green Otaku · March 8, 2023

10 hours ago, ADLER said:

The Big 10 will not be meeting until April and they will then have a new commissioner in place. They will then be able to vote on whether to issue invitations.

I still think the Big10 bides their time. Oregon/Washington don't have anywhere to go unless it's the Big12, and by the time the Big10 has their new commissioner in place the Big12 would have already made/not made their move. They could have taken those two (plus more) when they took USC/UCLA, they had to have had solid money reasons as to why they didn't. The Big10 is also thinking about not overloading too early, the ACC is being encircled by a pride of lions and everyone is just waiting for the right time to strike.

Recently FSU, Clemson, and UNC made public remarks about being unhappy with payouts. They feel what they contribute to the conference is not equal to what they get in return. They are pushing for unequal revenue distribution and reports say their lawyers are combing through the GOR to see if there are any clauses for breaking it. I doubt anything immediate happens. This is either a ploy to get unequal revenue to be accepted, or they really are unhappy and this is a sign of a future breakup if the ACC can't match what other conferences are paying out.

ADLER · March 9, 2023

On 3/7/2023 at 10:20 AM, rcade said:

I wasn't expecting the entire PAC to leave the conference just because SMU is reportedly joining.

I was.

GrayEagle · March 9, 2023

On 3/3/2023 at 12:50 PM, UNTFan23 said:

Since it's not specifically mentioned, the Big12 is going to raid the PAC?

It's pretty specific. It is said that the Big12 is going to raid (part of) the PAC. They are offering the Four Corners teams...Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State admission to the Big 12. Brigham Young undoubtedly would love that since all three are closer than Texas Tech and Kansas State (the closest members to them).

DeepGreen · March 9, 2023

On 3/4/2023 at 11:28 AM, Green Otaku said:

If the PAC refuses to do as ESPN says they can just pull their deal, and essentially force the PAC teams to leave to the Big12, so they will have mountain/pacific time slots one way or the other.

= blackmail

GrayEagle · March 9, 2023

I certainly am not privy to what is going on behind the scenes but if it doesn't work out for SMU, I would welcome them back to the AAC. It would raise our conference level. I'm also saying if we can get Army, then by all means do. Another mate for Temple can be decided later.