Just saw a CBS Sports Tournament Preview

emmitt01 · March 1, 2023

They are projectingFAU as a 10 seed; I’m assuming they think they will win the CSA tournament.

It is just sad to me that a team we should have beaten at least once (if not twice) is projected as a 10 seed and they’re even saying they deserve an at-large bid if they don’t win the CUSA tourney. Their only win of “note” was over Florida at the beginning of the season.

UNT Family Man · March 1, 2023

13 minutes ago, emmitt01 said:

They are projectingFAU as a 10 seed; I’m assuming they think they will win the CSA tournament.

It is just sad to me that a team we should have beaten at least once (if not twice) is projected as a 10 seed and they’re even saying they deserve an at-large bid if they don’t win the CUSA tourney. Their only win of “note” was over Florida at the beginning of the season.

Who have we beaten of note? They’ve had one chance and won. We’ve had one chance and we’ were dropped by 30.

Edited March 1, 2023 by UNT Family Man

YNWA2017 · March 1, 2023

44 minutes ago, emmitt01 said:

They are projectingFAU as a 10 seed; I’m assuming they think they will win the CSA tournament.

It is just sad to me that a team we should have beaten at least once (if not twice) is projected as a 10 seed and they’re even saying they deserve an at-large bid if they don’t win the CUSA tourney. Their only win of “note” was over Florida at the beginning of the season.

When they beat us twice, we gave them a quad 1 and a quad 2 win. Assuming the site I'm looking at is accurate.

Edited March 1, 2023 by YNWA2017

GMG_Dallas · March 2, 2023

Who cares. If FAU goes on a run and develops into the new UH (huge stretch), we'll benefit as long as we keep challenging them in conference play. Can't keep being content with 1 bid conferences. I doubt Big 10 members are mad they get 9 bids seemingly every year.

NT80 · March 2, 2023

3 hours ago, emmitt01 said:

They are projectingFAU as a 10 seed; I’m assuming they think they will win the CSA tournament.

It is just sad to me that a team we should have beaten at least once (if not twice) is projected as a 10 seed and they’re even saying they deserve an at-large bid if they don’t win the CUSA tourney. Their only win of “note” was over Florida at the beginning of the season.

FAU = Overrated. Florida is now 15-15, 8-9 in the SEC.

GMG_Dallas · March 2, 2023

41 minutes ago, NT80 said:

FAU = Overrated. Florida is now 15-15, 8-9 in the SEC.

Stop worrying about a conference-mate being overrated. The perception of our conference is what matters. If FAU is overrated, fine. As long as it translates to our conference being overrated to the tune of 2-3 bids yearly, I don't care. We need somebody to have a deep tourney run or two.

emmitt01 · March 2, 2023

1 hour ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Stop worrying about a conference-mate being overrated. The perception of our conference is what matters. If FAU is overrated, fine. As long as it translates to our conference being overrated to the tune of 2-3 bids yearly, I don't care. We need somebody to have a deep tourney run or two.

You’re totally missing the point of my post. I don’t want to just “be happy our conference mate has a good perception”, I want to beat them.

We failed to close the deal when they came to Denton (the worst officiating I’ve seen in years didn’t help) but I, in no way, shape, or form look at FAU and think “now that’s a 10 seed and better team than us.”

golfingomez · March 2, 2023

6 hours ago, emmitt01 said:

They are projectingFAU as a 10 seed; I’m assuming they think they will win the CSA tournament.

It is just sad to me that a team we should have beaten at least once (if not twice) is projected as a 10 seed and they’re even saying they deserve an at-large bid if they don’t win the CUSA tourney. Their only win of “note” was over Florida at the beginning of the season.

yeah, we probably should have beat them at least once.... but they are 26-3 with their worst loss coming against Ole Miss... their resume is kind of hard to deny that they should be an at large

CMJ · March 2, 2023

15 hours ago, NT80 said:

FAU = Overrated. Florida is now 15-15, 8-9 in the SEC.

I'd never call a team that beat us twice overrated, because it does absolutely nothing for our cause to do so. If they're overrated then what does that say about us?

Edited March 2, 2023 by CMJ

greenminer · March 2, 2023

6 minutes ago, CMJ said:

I'd never call a team that beat us twice overrate, because it does absolutely nothing for our cause to do so. If they're overrated then what does that say about us?

that we DEFINITELY had bad days. 😉

Edited March 2, 2023 by greenminer

NT80 · March 2, 2023

2 hours ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Stop worrying about a conference-mate being overrated. The perception of our conference is what matters. If FAU is overrated, fine. As long as it translates to our conference being overrated to the tune of 2-3 bids yearly, I don't care. We need somebody to have a deep tourney run or two.

Why? You do realize we are leaving Judy's Conference in 3 months?

GMG_Dallas · March 2, 2023

9 hours ago, NT80 said:

Why? You do realize we are leaving Judy's Conference in 3 months?

You do realize FAU is coming with us? If they're viewed as a strong program on the rise, it will help whichever conference they're in which will be the AAC.

Big Z · March 2, 2023

I'm freaking pumped for next week!

GMG_Dallas · March 2, 2023

10 hours ago, emmitt01 said:

You’re totally missing the point of my post. I don’t want to just “be happy our conference mate has a good perception”, I want to beat them.

We failed to close the deal when they came to Denton (the worst officiating I’ve seen in years didn’t help) but I, in no way, shape, or form look at FAU and think “now that’s a 10 seed and better team than us.”

I understand that, however, if FAU is overrated, gets in as an at-large (because I believe UNT or UAB will win the tourney), and has an overrated run to the sweet 16, that being overrated will carry on to the following season.

Teams that start in the AP preseason top 25 usually end up in the big dance barring a huge in-season collapse. I heard a few weeks ago that no team that has ever started the season as the AP number 1 has ever missed out on the NCAA tournament. UNC may end up the first ever if they miss out this season. They're holding on to the bubble because they're UNC. That's it. Perception matters. Name matters. The pollsters and committees don't want to be wrong. If FAU has a run as an at-large, deserving or not, it could help the new AAC. If Houston didn't have the name and recent tournament success, the AAC would be a 1 bid conference this season. That program brings credibility to the AAC. The other hopefuls are riding the wave.

I want to beat them too. We didn't. They're overrated. So is the Big 10 and the SEC. Being overrated is a good thing in this popularity contest.

MrAlien · March 2, 2023

should FAU not win the tournament, will they really get an at large? who would they bump? Memphis, a Big10 school?

CMJ · March 2, 2023

It depends on how they do before they lose. Should they win out until the final and lose to us, they may still get in. Should they lose in the semis like we did last year to MTSU or Charlotte....probably not.

GMG_Dallas · March 2, 2023

36 minutes ago, MrAlien said:

should FAU not win the tournament, will they really get an at large? who would they bump? Memphis, a Big10 school?

If they're a 9 or 10 seed right now, I think they'll get an at large only if their next loss is to unt or uab in the tourney final. Have to realize most mid major auto bids are usually projected 12th or worst. If you're a 10 seed or better, that's putting you in a better class than the other mid-majors. 11 seeds are your bubble teams and auto-bid or not, FAU is beeing seeded higher than the bubble teams. CBS has FAU as the lowest 10 seed but their NET is currently number 18. The highest NET ranking to be left out of the tourney since the NET was developed was NC State at 33 with an SOS near 180. FAU has an SOS of 120. Clemson was left out with a NET of 35 the same year as NC State was 33 and out. Both NC State and Clemson were passed over in favor of Belmont #47, Temple #56, Arizona State #63, and St John's #73. NC State and Clemson weren't the first 4 out either so they were not top NIT seeds, they were 2 seeds. If 2019 NC State and Clemson are any indicator, UNC will not get in over FAU if it comes down to it. That NC State was 3-9 in Quad 1 and Clemson was 1-10, like UNC right now. Belmont was 2-3 in Quad 1s and 17-0 in Quad 4s, Temple was 2-7, AZ state 3-4, and St John's 5-7. My observation is plenty 10+ Quad 1s is great but if you only win 3 or less, it doesn't help you other than in NET rankings. Better to play fewer and win a couple.

I'm not including Gonzaga or Houston in this by the way. Just my observation in RECENT years. Mid Majors are getting much less at large bids than they did 10 years ago but I think the perception that high majors automatically are favored may be wrong as well.

UNT Texas Hooligan · March 2, 2023

16 hours ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Who cares. If FAU goes on a run and develops into the new UH (huge stretch), we'll benefit as long as we keep challenging them in conference play. Can't keep being content with 1 bid conferences. I doubt Big 10 members are mad they get 9 bids seemingly every year.

I doubt this. Once Ole Miss (or others) poaches Dusty May, they will come back down to Earth. Much like their football team did after Lane Kiffin.

GMG_Dallas · March 2, 2023

6 minutes ago, UNT Texas Hooligan said:

I doubt this. Once Ole Miss (or others) poaches Dusty May, they will come back down to Earth. Much like their football team did after Lane Kiffin.

I think you're right about May leaving. Would still be good to show the world the new AAC can make a run even without Houston. It's about showing the conference has quality programs.

Edited March 2, 2023 by GMG_Dallas

CMJ · March 2, 2023

18 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

If they're a 9 or 10 seed right now, I think they'll get an at large only if their next loss is to unt or uab in the tourney final. Have to realize most mid major auto bids are usually projected 12th or worst. If you're a 10 seed or better, that's putting you in a better class than the other mid-majors. 11 seeds are your bubble teams and auto-bid or not, FAU is beeing seeded higher than the bubble teams. CBS has FAU as the lowest 10 seed but their NET is currently number 18. The highest NET ranking to be left out of the tourney since the NET was developed was NC State at 33 with an SOS near 180. FAU has an SOS of 120. Clemson was left out with a NET of 35 the same year as NC State was 33 and out. Both NC State and Clemson were passed over in favor of Belmont #47, Temple #56, Arizona State #63, and St John's #73. NC State and Clemson weren't the first 4 out either so they were not top NIT seeds, they were 2 seeds. If 2019 NC State and Clemson are any indicator, UNC will not get in over FAU if it comes down to it. That NC State was 3-9 in Quad 1 and Clemson was 1-10, like UNC right now. Belmont was 2-3 in Quad 1s and 17-0 in Quad 4s, Temple was 2-7, AZ state 3-4, and St John's 5-7. My observation is plenty 10+ Quad 1s is great but if you only win 3 or less, it doesn't help you other than in NET rankings. Better to play fewer and win a couple.

I'm not including Gonzaga or Houston in this by the way. Just my observation in RECENT years. Mid Majors are getting much less at large bids than they did 10 years ago but I think the perception that high majors automatically are favored may be wrong as well.

NC State and Clemson may have been still have been First Four out. The NIT doesn't necessarily seed based on how the NIT does even though their selection criteria is the same. I feel like about a decade ago even the NCAA admitted Drexel was one of the last teams they looked at as far as the at-larges, and then they had a 3 seed in the NIT.

UNT Texas Hooligan · March 2, 2023

11 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

I think you're right about May leaving. Would still be good to show the world the new AAC can make a run even without Houston. It's about showing the conference has quality programs.

Totally agree. This just seems to be FAU's M.O. Get a flash in the pan hire that takes their program to ridiculous heights, then once that coach gets hired away, they fall back down to normalcy or worse. Especially for a program that only had 3 winning seasons in 15 seasons prior to May getting there. Hope that is not the case for the good of our conference but we'll see

GMG_Dallas · March 2, 2023

5 minutes ago, CMJ said:

NC State and Clemson may have been still have been First Four out. The NIT doesn't necessarily seed based on how the NIT does even though their selection criteria is the same. I feel like about a decade ago even the NCAA admitted Drexel was one of the last teams they looked at as far as the at-larges, and then they had a 3 seed in the NIT.

Clemson and NC State were not in the first 4 out.

NT80 · March 2, 2023

23 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

I think you're right about May leaving. Would still be good to show the world the new AAC can make a run even without Houston. It's about showing the conference has quality programs.

I don't know why you're such a FAU-homer? They last won 20 games in 2011 and none other in the last 30 years! They will be back to nothing-ness next season. There is no extra points for being in a conference with them.

GMG_Dallas · March 2, 2023

1 minute ago, NT80 said:

I don't know why you're such a FAU-homer? They last won 20 games in 2011 and none other in the last 30 years! They will be back to nothing-ness next season. There is no extra points for being in a conference with them.

I'm not. I don't understand why y'all hate other conference mates doing well. If UNT ever wants to rise to prominence, we need the conference to rise as a whole. We're not going to do much if our only war in the dance is by the auto bid.

Edited March 2, 2023 by GMG_Dallas

NT80 · March 2, 2023

25 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

I'm not. I don't understand why y'all hate other conference mates doing well. If UNT ever wants to rise to prominence, we need the conference to rise as a whole. We're not going to do much if our only war in the dance is by the auto bid.

I don't feel we need to raise the prominence of CUSA anymore. We're leaving it! A one-year-wonder FAU is not Gonzaga and will not elevate the new AAC unless they have a multiple previous NCAA bid history. They don't. Let's see where they are in 10 years.